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Newfoundland and Labrador goes to the polls today, and we can expect nothing short of another Tory landslide. The party, which has been in power since 2003, is expected to win a third straight majority mandate. That would normally mean a boring election, however the race is still on for which party will be the official opposition.
Two polls were released last week, one by Environics and one by Corporate Research Associates. Environics shows the Tories at 54%, the NDP at 33%, and the Liberals at 13%. Corporate Research shows the Tories at a whopping 59%, the NDP down to 25% and the Liberals at 16%. Corporate Research also showed us some regional breakdowns, with the Tories ahead across the province. The NDP is in 2nd place in the eastern part of the province, and in the St. John's area, while the Liberals are 2nd in the west. Their regional numbers seem to reflect my presumptions about what is going on in the province, with the NDP's surge mainly concentrated in the St. John's area, where they hold both federal seats.
With the NDP seen by many Newfoundlanders as the new opposition party, it will be interesting to see how they do. Much of the St. John's area is a strong Tory area, where most incumbents are running for re-election, therefore the NDP will have a hard time winning seats on 25-33% of the province-wide vote. The pundits are suggesting the best shots for the NDP in the area are St. John's North and St. John's Centre, and apparently the Tories and NDP are running neck and neck in the city. Given all the information I could gather, I've compiled my projections.
Riding by riding projections:
| Riding | PC | Lib | NDP | Oth | Winning candidate |
| Baie Verte-Springdale | 44 | 37 | 19 | - | Kevin Pollard |
| Bay of Islands | 42 | 35 | 23 | - | Terry Loder |
| Bellevue | 42 | 35 | 23 | - | Calvin Peach |
| Bonavista North | 57 | 24 | 19 | - | Eli Cross |
| Bonavista South | 80 | 6 | 14 | - | Glen Little |
| Burgeo-La Poile | 37 | 55 | 8 | - | Andrew Parsons |
| Burin-Placentia West | 48 | 3 | 49 | - | Julie Mitchell |
| Cape St. Francis | 56 | 5 | 39 | - | Kevin Parsons |
| Carbonear-Harbour Grace | 61 | 12 | 27 | 0 | Jerome Kennedy |
| Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair | 20 | 67 | 13 | - | Yvonne Jones |
| Conception Bay East-Bell Island | 56 | 7 | 37 | - | David Brazil |
| Conception Bay South | 64 | 9 | 27 | - | Terry French |
| Exploits | 59 | 20 | 21 | - | Clayton Forsey |
| Ferryland | 69 | 3 | 28 | - | Keith Hutchings |
| Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune | 52 | 29 | 19 | - | Tracey Perry |
| Gander | 55 | 16 | 29 | - | Kevin O'Brien |
| Grand Bank | 64 | 13 | 23 | - | Darin King |
| Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans | 56 | 2 | 42 | - | Susan Sullivan |
| Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South | 61 | 20 | 25 | - | Ray Hunter |
| Harbour Main | 68 | 4 | 28 | - | Tom Hedderson |
| Humber East | 73 | 4 | 23 | - | Tom Marshall |
| Humber Valley | 50 | 46 | 4 | - | Darryl Kelly |
| Humber West | 53 | 27 | 20 | - | Vaughn Granter |
| Kilbride | 61 | 4 | 35 | - | John Dinn |
| Labrador West | 34 | 3 | 63 | - | Tom Harris |
| Lake Melville | 43 | 34 | 23 | - | Keith Russell |
| Lewisporte | 60 | 10 | 30 | - | Wade Verge |
| Mount Pearl North | 66 | 3 | 31 | - | Steve Kent |
| Mount Pearl South | 66 | 3 | 31 | - | Paul Lane |
| Placentia-St. Mary's | 65 | 14 | 21 | - | Felix Collins |
| Port au Port | 70 | 10 | 20 | - | Tony Cornect |
| Port de Grave | 33 | 44 | 23 | - | Leanne Hussey |
| Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi | 27 | 2 | 71 | - | Lorraine Michael |
| St. Barbe | 47 | 38 | 15 | - | Wallace Young |
| St. George's-Stephenville East | 41 | 39 | 18 | 2 | Joan Burke |
| St. John's Centre | 48 | 3 | 49 | - | Gerry Rogers |
| St. John's East | 48 | 8 | 44 | - | Ed Buckingham |
| St. John's North | 46 | 7 | 47 | - | Dale Kirby |
| St. John's South | 57 | 4 | 39 | - | Tom Osborne |
| St. John's West | 50 | 15 | 35 | - | Dan Crummell |
| Terra Nova | 63 | 10 | 25 | 2 | Sandy Collins |
| The Isles of Notre Dame | 49 | 44 | 7 | - | Derrick Dalley |
| The Straits-White Bay North | 31 | 47 | 22 | - | Marshall Dean |
| Topsail | 62 | 2 | 36 | - | Paul Davis |
| Torngat Mountains | 50 | 37 | 13 | - | Patty Pottle |
| Trinity-Bay de Verde | 58 | 16 | 26 | - | Charlene Johnson |
| Trinity North | 71 | 6 | 23 | - | Rose Wiseman |
| Virginia Waters | 54 | 3 | 43 | - | Kathy Dunderdale |
Predicting the toss ups
Burin-Placentia West
This is certainly an odd seat to suggest the NDP has a chance in, but it's true. The riding isn't in the St. John's area, and the federal party did very poor in this area. The Tory MHA for this riding is the Fisheries Minister, and he is coming under some heat. The NDP candidate, Julie Mitchell ran in this riding in 2007 and did very well. I expect her to gain this seat.
Humber Valley
This is a rematch of the 2007 election between former Liberal MHA Dwight Ball and current Tory MHA Darryl Kelly. That race was quite close, with Kelly winning by about 250 votes. Poll don't suggest much change in this part of the province, so I predict that Kelly will keep this seat.
St. George's-Stephensville East
This is the riding where Liberal leader Kevin Aylward is attempting to gain a seat in the house. He will have a hard time however, as the Tory incumbent, Joan Burke received 75% of the vote here in 2007. Aylward did hold the seat from 1985 to 2003. His final election in 1999 was decided by just 600 votes, despite a Liberal majority government. Burke won the election to replace Aylward by just 500 votes. I expect another close race here, but I think Burke will hold on, embarrassing the Liberals.
The Isles of Notre Dame
Former Liberal leader Gerry Reid lost by just 7 votes in this riding in 2007. He won't be running again this time, but the Liberals are still challenging here with their candidate in Danny Dumaresque. Dumaresque is a former president of the Liberals, and a former MHA representing a Labrador riding. He also ran for the leadership of the party. Given all that, I still feel the Tories will keep this seat.
St. John's East
With the NDP surge happening in St. John's they are sure to be on the rise here. This was the party's best St. John's riding in 2007. They are running consumer advocate George Murphy. If the NDP has a good night, they will win this seat, but for now I think the Tories will keep it.
St. John's Centre
The pundits think that the NDP has a shot here, and so with the NDP on the rise in the city, I'll have to call this for them. They are running filmmaker Gerry Rogers in the riding. She is up against cabinet minister Shawn Skinner. Openly Lesbian, let's hope that homophobia isn't a factor here for Rogers. For the record, the NDP lost this seat by 2700 votes in 2007.
St. John's North
The other seat the pundits say the NDP has a chance in is here. The party is running Dale Kirby, “an award winning” professor at Memorial University. Bob Ridgley is the Tory MHA. The NDP finished third here in 2007, losing by 3000 votes. However, given the rise in the numbers for the party, I will project an NDP win here.
Conclusion
It appears as though it will be much the same in 2011 as it was in 2007, with the Tories winning a landslide election. PC leader Kathy Dunderdale is no Danny Williams, but voters will opt to stay the course in a province that has never been as prosperous. However, the big news will be that the NDP should eke out official opposition status, as long as they can make actual seat gains in St. John's.
Polls close at 8pm Newfoundland time, or 6:30 Eastern.
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