New Brunswick municipal elections today

Map of New Brunswick's municipalities and wards

Voters in New Brunswick are heading to the polls today in municipal elections. Not only will voters be electing new mayors and councils across the province's 107 municipalities, they will also be voting for district education councils and regional health authorities. One municipality, Oromocto will also be holding a plebiscite to see if voters want bi-weekly recycle collection.

Since the last municipal elections in 2012 the province gained two new municipalities: the rural communities of Cocagne and Hanwell, bringing the total number of municipalities in the province up from 105 to 107. Furthermore, the Town of Tracadie-Sheila amalgamated with surrounding local service districts to become the new regional municipality of Tracadie.

Voters in the municipalities of Alma, Baker-Brook, Bath, Bertrand, Cambridge Narrows, Campobello Island, Clair, Hartland, Maisonnette, Meductic, Millville, Sainte-Anne-de-Madawaska, Saint-Isidore, Saint-Louis-de-Kent, Saint-Quentin, Shippagan and Stanley will not be voting in council or mayoral elections, as all candidates running were acclaimed, that is they were elected to their positions without opposition.

The municipalities of Aroostook, Balmoral, Beresford, Blacks Harbour, Bouctouche, Canterbury, Cap-Pelé, Caraquet, Dorchester, Florenceville-Bristol, Gagetown, Hampton, Harvey, Hillsborough, New Maryaland, Nigadoo, Norton, Petitcodiac, Petit-Rocher, Pointe-Verte, Port Elgin, Richibucto, Sainte-Marie-Saint-Raphaël, Saint-Léonard, Shediac, St. Hilaire, Sussex, Sussex Corner, Tide Head, Tracy and Woodstock will not be holding mayoral elections, as candidates for that position were also acclaimed.

And, there will only be races for mayor in Charlo, Drummond, Saint Andrews, St. Martins and Upper Miramichi as the rest of council was acclaimed.

Let's take a look at the races in New Brunswick's three largest cities:

Fredericton

 

The race for mayor of Fredericton is between long-time mayor Brad Woodside and Ward 3 councillor Michael O'Brien.

Woodside has been involved in Fredericton politics for a long time. He was first elected as mayor in 1986, but was first elected to council in 1981. He resigned as mayor in 1999, but was re-elected in 2004 and has served as mayor ever since. He resigned in 1999 to run for the Liberals in the provincial election that year in the riding of Fredericton North, losing to the Progressive Conservatives in a close race.

Woodside won re-election in 2012, defeating left-leaning professor Matthew Hayes 63% to 37%. Woodside won 10 of the city's 12 wards, while Hayes won the two downtown wards, an area that is now held by the Green Party in the provincial legislature. Woodside saw his strongest support on the more suburban north side of the Saint John River.

This election is expected to be much closer than in 2012, as Woodside's opponent is more credible in city councillor Michael O'Brien, who has been a councillor since 2001. O'Brien was previously an engineer and worked for NB Liquor for 30 years. He is known for promoting affordable housing and social causes.

Candidates for mayor

Fredericton's 12 wards saw a re-drawing of their boundaries, and so this year's council election will be fought on a new electoral map. Each ward elects one member to city council, which means there are 13 council members including the mayor. Wards 1, 4 and 5 will not have elections as the candidates in those wards were elected with no opposition. In Ward 4, a non incumbent was acclaimed, Eric Price, as its current councillor, Eric Megarity decided to run in Ward 6 instead, against sitting councillor Marilyn Kerton. New ward boundaries have meant one other sitting councillor has had to run in a different seat. In addition to Megarity's move, Ward 2 councillor Bruce Grandy is running in Ward 3, leaving that ward as an open seat. There will be two other open races as Ward 7 councillor Scott McConaghy and Ward 12 councillor Randy Dickinson are not running for re-election.

Fredericton's new ward map

Moncton

 

Two-term incumbent mayor George LeBlanc will not be running for re-election, leaving the mayoral race in the Hub City wide open. LeBlanc's decision to not run has come after a failed bid to win the federal Liberal Party nomination in Moncton's riding in last year's federal election.  LeBlanc easily won re-election as mayor of the city in 2012, defeating former NDP candidate Carl Bainrbidge 87% to 13%. LeBlanc won all four wards in the city by over 85% of the vote.

The race to replace LeBlanc is between two sitting city councillors, at large city councillor Dawn Arnold and Ward 3 city councillor Brian Hicks. Hicks is a Liberal, having run in the 2014 provincial election in Moncton Northwest, losing to the PCs in a close race. He has served on city council since 1999, and was previously a businessman, having managed two inter-provincial trucking companies. Arnold was first elected to city council in the 2012 election, managing to top the poll in the race for at-large city councillor. Previously, she was the chair of the local “Frye Festival”, a local bilingual literary festival.

Candidates for mayor

In addition to the mayoral race, there are 10 seats up for grabs on Moncton's city council. Each of Moncton's four wards will elect two city councillors while the remaining two city councillors are elected city-wide on an at-large basis. With Arnold running for mayor, there will only be one incumbent (Pierre Boudreau) running for re-election as Moncton's at-large councillor. In addition to Boudreau, there are seven candidates running for the two at-large positions. With Brian Hicks running for mayor, and Ward 3's other councillor, Daniel Bourgeois not running for re-election, there will be an open race for that ward's two council seats. The incumbents in the remaining three wards in the city are all running for re-election.

Saint John

 

Saint John will also see an open race for mayor, as the city's current head, Mel Norton is retiring and will be running for leader of the province's Progressive Conservative Party. Norton had only been mayor of the city for one term, being first elected in the 2012 election, when he defeated the previous mayor, Ivan Court in a landslide, 76% to 15%. Norton easily won all four wards in the city, three of which with over three quarters of the vote. The only ward he did not break 75% was Ward 3, which covers the central part of the city, despite this being the ward he had previously represented on city council.

With Norton not running for re-election, five candidates have stepped up to replace him, Deputy Mayor Shelley Rinehart, councillor Bill Faren, former city councillor Patty Higgins, businessman Don Darling and fringe candidate Howard Yeomans.

The three main candidates for mayor

Rinehart was first elected to Saint John's city council in 2012, topping the polls for one of two at-large positions, becoming deputy mayor in the process. Prior to her election, she served as a business professor. She ran for the provincial Liberals in the 2014 Saint John East by-election, going down to defeat against the Progressive Conservative candidate, despite the Liberals having just won the seat two months earlier in the provincial election.  Farren is one of the two city councillors representing Ward 1, and was first elected to council in 2004.  Farren ran for the NDP in the 1999 provincial election in the riding of Saint John Lancaster, finishing third. Higgins sat on Saint John's council from 2008 to 2012, when she lost her Ward 2 seat by a narrow margin. While sitting as a city councillor, Higgins ran for the Green Party in the 2010 provincial election in the riding of Saint John Harbour, coming in last place. Darling is a local consultant and owns a small construction business, while Yeomans is a retiree who considers himself an “average citizen”.

Saint John's city council is elected the same way as Moncton's. There are four wards, which elect two councillors each, plus two councillors are elected at-large. The at-large councillor with the most votes becomes deputy mayor.

With Rinehart running for mayor, only one incumbent is running for re-election in the at-large race, Shirley McAlary. She is running against five other candidates for the two positions. Both incumbents from Wards 3 and 4 will be running for re-election as well. Meanwhile in Wards 1 and 2, only one incumbent is running for re-election. In Ward 1 only Greg Norton is running for re-election, as its other councillor, Bill Faren is running for mayor. In Ward 2 only John MacKenzie is running for re-election as Susan Fullerton is retiring.



Polls close at 8pm, Atlantic time or 7pm Eastern. 

Saint John East, New Brunswick provincial by-election preview

Following an unusual turn of events, voters in the provincial riding of Saint John East in New Brunswick will be heading back to the polls on Monday, after having just gone to the polls in September to elect a new member of the New Brunswick Legislative Assembly in the 2014 New Brunswick general election.  In that election, Liberal candidate Gary Keating defeated the incumbent, Tory Glen Savoie by a narrow nine vote margin, which had to be confirmed by a judicial recount. Just three weeks after having been elected, and before he was even officially sworn in, Keating decided he didn't want the job, as it would mean spending too much time away from his family.

And so, this by-election, not even two months after the general election, will stand as a very early test for the new Liberal government in the province, who have just came from winning a majority government with 27 seats to the Tories' 21.  The fate of the government won't rest on this one seat, but it will be interesting to see if the voters in the riding punish the Liberals for having had a candidate who was uncommitted to holding office.

The riding of Saint John East extends from the old east end of Saint John on Saint John Harbour, eastward until the shores of Loch Lomond near the Saint John Airport. The riding contains a number of communities in the east end of the city, located near the Little River. In addition to the neighbourhood of Saint John East, the riding also includes the communities of Champlain Heights, Silver Falls, Forest Hills, Heatherway, Lakewood Heights, Lakewood, Latimore Lake, Greenwood, Churchland Road and Ben Lomond.

History

Saint John East with its current boundaries was created in the most recent redistribution which occurred just before the last general election. It was formed from most of the previous Saint John East riding and part of Saint John-Fundy, where Glen Savoie was the MLA. Glen Tait, who was the MLA for Saint John East did not run in 2014.

Throughout its history, the riding typically votes for the party that forms government.  2003 is the most recent exception, as the Liberal's Roly MacIntyre picked up the riding despite the Tories winning the general election. Since Gerry Merrithew held the seat in the 1970s and early 1980s, the Tories have generally been weak in the riding. When they do win, it is with the help of a split opposition, as they have not won more than 40% of the vote here since 1982. The Liberals have cracked 40% on a few occasions, but only once did they themselves win a majority of support. This was in 2006, when they won 60%. One reason for the Liberals and Tories typically winning the seat with relatively low numbers is the higher than usual NDP vote in this riding. The NDP has only won the riding once (in a 1985 by-election), but typically gets around 20-25% of the vote.

MLAs (since 1967)

Saint John East (2 members)

- C.A. McIlveen, Prog. Cons. (1967-1972)
- W.J. Woodroffe, Prog. Cons. (1967-1974)
- G.S. Merrithew, Prog. Cons. (1972-1974)

East Saint John

- G.S. Merrithew, Prog. Cons. (1974-1984) continued
- Peter Trites, N.D.P. (1984-1984); Liberal (1987-1991)
- Geo. Jenkins, Liberal (1991-1995)

Saint John Champlain

- R. MacIntyre, Liberal (1995-1999)
- Ms. C.J. Keddy, Prog. Cons. (1999-2003)
- R. MacIntyre, Liberal (2003-2010) 2nd time

Saint John East

- Glen Tait, Prog. Cons. (2010-2014)
- G. Keating, Liberal (2014)

Political geography

In the general election, once again due to the strength of the NDP vote in the riding, neither the Liberals nor the Tories broke 40% of the vote, getting about 37% each. Despite a high profile province-wide campaign, the NDP result in the riding, 19%, is lower than normal for the party. Perhaps the Greens, who won 6% of the vote, ate into this.

In no neighbourhood did the Tories break 40%. They were strongest in the more suburban neighbourhoods in the eastern part of the riding, with their best neighbourhood being Forest Hills, where they won 39.9%. The Liberals' best neighbourhood was Champlain Heights, in the western part of the riding, where they won 41% of the vote. The NDP did not win any polls, but their best neighbourhood was Latimore Lake in the southeast part of the riding, where they won 24%. The Greens' best neighbourhood was the Ben Lomond / Churchland Road area in the northeast of the riding, where they won 7%.

2014 general election results by community in Saint John East

Traditionally, there is an east-west divide in the riding. The Liberals are historically stronger in the older Saint John East neighbourhood and in Champlain Heights, which are both in the western part of the riding. The more suburban communities in the rest of the riding tend to be more Tory friendly.  NDP support is usually found in the same areas as the Liberals, and often do win a few polls in the old Saint John East area.

Outlook

Following the results of the provincial election in September, then-NDP leader Dominic Cardy resigned as leader, as the party failed to win any seats. However, he was encouraged by party stalwarts to run in the by-election, perhaps in a last ditch effort to enter the legislature, after being shutout. Cardy stands a good chance, as the NDP has a strong base in this riding. Because the NDP didn't win any seats in September, a Cardy victory here is crucial for the New Democrats. It is also crucial because the party risks losing “third party status” in the minds of voters, as the Green Party managed to win a seat the September election, whereas the NDP didn't. For NDPers, this by-election is a “second chance” after a disappointing general election.

The shear closeness of the September general election in this riding means that the outcome of Monday's vote is anyone's guess. The Tories hope to win the seat back with Glen Savoie again, who represented part of this riding  from 2010 to 2014, and narrowly lost here in the general election. Challenging Cardy and Savoie is Saint John Deputy Mayor Shelley Rinehart who is running for the Liberals, and is definitely a better candidate than Gary Keating. The Greens look to build on their one seat in the legislature with their candidate, businesswoman Sharon Murphy, who was their candidate in September. Interestingly, none of the candidates actually live in the riding, although all are claiming some sort of connection to the area, with Cardy even promising to move there if elected.

We'll see what happens when polls close on Monday at 8pm (7pm Eastern).

2014 New Brunswick Election - Final Projection

New Brunswickers head to the polls today to elect the 49 members of the New Brunswick Legislative Assembly. Heading into the campaign, it appeared as though the opposition Liberal Party was headed for a certain landslide majority government. However, following a gaffe-filled CBC interview with Liberal leader Brian Gallant, the polls have tightened in the province, and nothing is certain in today's vote.

Polls have been few and far between in this campaign, which has resulted in few projections on my part. In fact, I have only done one other projection in this campaign. This is unfortunate, because it has meant I have not been paying enough attention to the election to come up with a decent model. Nonetheless, I will use my basic vote distribution model for this final projection to try and come up with some sort of numbers. For this final projection, I have used two polls in an attempt to come up with a projected seat count. These two polls are one published by Forum Research last night which shows the Liberals and Tories in a literal tie (40% a piece), and one conducted by Corporate Research Associates last week, which showed the Liberals ahead 45-36.

There has definitely been a shift, in what little polls there have been, from the Liberals to the Tories, at least since Gallant's interview with the CBC on September 12. This means it is quite possible that the momentum will carry forward, for the Progressive Conservatives, into the election today, and win in a close election. How much momentum they still have is something one can only speculate on.

Perhaps including the older CRA poll in my model may skew my projection in favour of the Liberals, when it is actually the Tories that have the momentum. However, the smaller sample size of the poll has ensured its weight is much smaller than in the Forum poll. Nonetheless, it is enough for my model to show the Liberals with a narrow 42%-38% lead. This translates into 30 seats for the Liberals and 19 for the Tories.

Another factor that may help the Liberals win the election is geography. The electoral map of New Brunswick has helped the Liberals out in the past. In the 2006 election, the Tories won the popular vote by a mere 0.4%, but it was the Liberals who won a majority government, winning the election by three seats. However, the map of New Brunswick's ridings has changed since then, and the map may be fairer than the last. In fact, a quick extrapolation of the 2010 results shows both parties would win close to the same number of seats if they were tied in the popular vote. While the current map might have been fair for the 2010 results, the distribution of the votes in this election may be very different. Despite the tie in their poll from last night, Forum Research shows the Liberals ahead in Central and Eastern New Brunswick, while they are far behind in the South. If this poll shows an accurate regional breakdown, then we can assume that much of the Tory support is sitting in the giant vote sink that is Southern New Brunswick, where my model shows them winning all but two seats. However, Southern New Brunswick only has 11 seats, and even if the Tories won all of them, they would be nowhere close to winning a majority.

If the Tories are to win the election, they will need to close the gap in the rest of the province, outside of the South. My model shows quite a few marginal seats that the Progressive Conservatives could win. The closest seats in my model (where the Liberals area ahead) are Memramcook-Tantramar, Moncton South, Shippagan-Lameque-Miscou, Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin, Fredericton-York, Oromocto-Lincoln and Saint John Harbour. A near sweep of these ridings could be enough for them to win the election.

Other than the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives, my model shows no other parties winning any seats. Despite so much optimism from the NDP in the lead up to today's vote, the polls have not been favourable to the party (Forum has the NDP at 12%), as voters are shifting back to the more traditional two parties. This is not to say the NDP won't win any seats. There are a number of seats they have targeted, such as their leader's riding of Fredericton West-Hanwell, Saint John Harbour and Independent MLA (running for the NDP) Bev Harrison's riding of Hampton. The populist People's Alliance party (who are only running in 18 districts) are also targeting a number of seats, such as their leader's seat of Fredericton-Grand Lake, and their deputy leader's seat of Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin. Their deputy leader actually mentioned to me on Twitter that he was neck and neck in the seat, and that he would send me internal polls to prove it. I didn't receive any, and so my model has him at just 8%. The Greens have been polling well-ish (Forum has them at 6%), but we all know they tend to over-poll. Their best bet is the urban progressive-leaning seat of Fredericton South, where their leader is running. Due to the lack of detailed regional polls in the election, it is impossible for me to accurately gauge how strong local candidacies are of any party, especially the smaller parties, which tend to focus their entire campaigns on a small handful of seats.

Leading mother tongue by census subdivision

My overall projection map shows the geographic polarization of New Brunswick. The Tories are strong in the socially conservative “Baptist Belt” in south and west of the province, while the Liberals are stronger in the Acadian areas, along the Atlantic coast, and in the northeast. This is the general pattern in New Brunswick politics, and the key to victory tends to be in breaking into the other side's traditional territory, usually done with strong local candidates. New Brunswick election maps rarely show this polarization as much as my projection map does, and it is likely that the strength of certain local candidates will make this particular map look quite different from the actual electoral map that will be produced by the voters today. 

New Brunswick religion map by county

 

Projected results by riding (ridings coloured by how they went in 2010, using transposed results): 

Polls close at 8pm (7pm Eastern). 

2014 New Brunswick Election Projection #1 (Sept 4)

Projection Map #1

We are now two weeks into the New Brunswick provincial election, since the writs dropped August 21, which marked the beginning of the campaign. This means that there are just two and a half weeks to go before New Brunswickers head to the polls on September 22. And, only this week have there been any polls released. Now that there has been some polls, I can finally do my first seat projection of the campaign.

Corporate Research Associates (CRA), Atlantic Canada's main pollster, released a poll on September 2^nd showing the Opposition Liberal Party firmly in the lead at 48%. The governing Progressive Conservatives were in second, with 28%, and the NDP was at 17%. Forum Research also released a poll, a few days earlier, showing similar numbers; The Liberals were at 46%, the Tories at 31% and the NDP at 15%. Both of these polls were conducted before Labour Day, so there is the caveat of notoriously unreliable Summer polling, but the numbers are on par with CRA polls from the Spring.

Neither pollster provided for any regional or even linguistic breakdowns in their numbers, which will make individual seat projections a lot more of a crapshoot than in other provinces. For my first projection, I took an average of the two polls (weighted based on sample size), and plugged it into my projection model, which is based on the transposed 2010 election results. (See this post for the calculated transposed results of the 2010 election). I also made some minor tweaks to reflect which candidates will be on the ballot (the nomination period having ended), and I also made adjustments in three ridings based on circumstance:

* Tracadie-Sheila: I reduced the support for the NDP in this riding, because the party saw a larger-than-usual vote share in 2010 because their leader at the time ran in this riding. (I based my math on what the NDP should have received in this riding in 2010, if it saw the same swing as the rest of the province.)

* Fredericton West-Hanwell: Conversely, I raised the support for the NDP in this riding, because their leader is running in it. (I based my math on the increase that NDP leader Dominic Cardy saw when he ran in a by-election two years ago in Rothesay, compared to province-wide polling at the time.)

* Carleton-Victoria: In this riding, the Liberals suspended their candidate (Andrew Harvey) based on fraud charges. Because the nomination period is over, he will remain on the ballot. I have yet to come up with a very good math-based solution to base my projection in this riding, but for now, I weakened Harvey's candidacy based on a similar scenario that occurred in the federal election, where a Liberal candidate appeared on the ballot after losing the party's support due to scandal. Assuming most of his vote will go to the NDP, I increased the NDP's share in this riding accordingly, to compensate. I may want to tweak the numbers in this district in the future, as my model still shows the Liberals in second place.

As always, I will be making further adjustments to my model to reflect candidate strengths, and other factors in the coming weeks. But for now, my model shows a large Liberal majority government. According to my projection, the Liberals would win 38 of the 49 seats in the New Brunswick legislature. The Tories would win 10 seats (almost all of them in the socially conservative “Baptist belt” of southwestern New Brunswick), and the NDP would win one seat (Fredericton West-Hanwell, where Cardy is running). This would be a 25 seat increase for the Liberals, and 32 seat decrease for the Tories from the 2010 election. For the NDP, it would be their first seat won since 2003. For the Liberals, it would be their largest electoral victory since 1995, and it would be the worst defeat for the Tories since then. In that election, the Liberals won 48 of 55 seats, and won 52% of the vote to 31% for the PCs, a similar result to current polling.

Projected results by riding (ridings coloured by how they went in 2010, using transposed results): 

New Brunswick provincial redistribution and transposition

2010 Election results on the new boundaries

Yesterday, New Brunswick Premier David Alward met with the New Brunswick lieutenant-governor, asking for the province's legislative assembly to dissolve on Thursday. This will mark the beginning of the 2014 New Brunswick election campaign, which is scheduled to occur in just over one month's time, on September 22^nd. The 2014 election will be fought over new electoral district boundaries, which were set by a commission last year. In total, New Brunswick Legislative Assembly will be reduced in size from 55 seats to 49 seats, meaning there will be six fewer ridings in the province. In a rare move in Canadian history, the redistribution saw a complete re-draw of the electoral map, due to the dramatic decrease in the number of ridings.

The decrease in the number of seats in the Assembly hurts the depopulating north the most, as Northern New Brunswick loses two seats with the redistribution (going from 10 to 8). Next door Miramichi is also badly hurt by the redistribution, as it sees a 25% reduction of seats, going from four seats to three. The Upper Saint John River Valley, Central New Brunswick (Fredericton area) and Southern New Brunswick (Saint John) all lose one seat a piece. No regions of the province sees a gain in seats, but Southeast New Brunswick, which includes the Greater Moncton Area, sees a net gain/loss of zero seats. 

Actual 2010 election results

Due to these changes, I took the initiative to calculate the results of the last provincial election in 2010 and transpose them on the new boundaries. Unfortunately, Elections New Brunswick did not publicly release their own transposition numbers, unlike some other provinces. I'm not the only blogger to do to a transposition, nbpolitico did one (but he's only providing more detailed numbers at a cost) and Blunt Objects did one as well, free of charge (much to my chagrin, as I had already started on this project, not realizing someone else would do it!). Interestingly, both nbpolitico and Blunt Objects show different numbers than in my transposition. They obviously used a different methodology than myself, so all my effort was not all for naught. 

Methodology

To calculate my transposition, I identified which polling divisions would be going into which new riding, which was usually quite simple, but involved some guess-work, as in many cases, the new boundaries split up polling divisions. Then, I added up the results from the 2010 election from these polling divisions based on the new ridings they were in. But, that did not account for all of the votes cast in 2010. I had to account for advance votes and special votes (prisoners, military personnel, people living abroad). Advance votes were cast in larger polling divisions. Elections New Brunswick usually identified which polling divisions the advance voting divisions covered. When an advance polling division was entirely in a new riding, I added its result to the total for the new riding. When it spanned more than one new riding, I redistributed the results based on the ratio of the results in the regular polls they overlapped with. With the special votes, which were not allotted to any individual riding, I redistributed the results based on the same ratios as the regular votes cast in the riding. For example, if 40% of the Liberal regular votes in a riding were redistributed into riding “A”, than 40% of the special votes cast for the Liberals were allotted to riding “A”.

According to my redistribution methodology, the Liberals would have won 11 of the new ridings, while the Progressive Conservatives would have won 38. This would be two fewer seats for the Liberals from their actual 2010 total (13), and four fewer for the Progressive Conservatives, who won 42 seats in 2010. This shows that the new map is relatively fair, as it takes seats away from both parties. 

In Northern New Brunswick, the Liberals would have won just three seats, two fewer than the five they actually won in 2010. The Tories however, would retain their five seats. In Eastern New Brunswick, the Liberals would have won five seats on the new boundaries, down from seven which they actually won. This is beneficial to the Tories, who would win an extra seat from the Liberals in the Moncton area. Boundary changes in the rest of the province were more beneficial to the Liberals, where they won just one seat in 2010. The new boundaries would have given them two new seats, Fredericton South and Saint John Harbour. Changes in the rest of the province hurt the Tories the most, as they would see a reduction of five seats there.

The other parties in New Brunswick did not win any seats in 2010, and would not win any with the new boundaries either. The best result for the NDP would be in Tracadie-Sheila, where they won 33%, thanks to their leader, Roger Duguay having ran there. The Green's best result would be in Fredericton South, where they won 13% in 2010. Fredericton South contains the more progressive parts of Fredericton, taking in parts of the former ridings of Ferericton-Silverwood and Fredericton-Lincoln. The populist People's Alliance Party saw their best result in Fredericton-Grand Lake (14%), which contains part of the former riding of Grand Lake-Gagetown, where their leader Kris Austin ran.

Redistributed results of the 2010 New Brunswick election on the new ridings being used in 2014.

According to my transposition numbers, the closest of the new ridings on the new map would have been Moncton Centre, where my numbers show the Tories winning by just 6 (0.1%) transposed votes! Moncton Centre contains parts of the Liberal riding of Moncton East and the Tory riding of Moncton North. Interestingly, the incumbents from both Moncton East and Moncton North will duke it out to see who will win the new riding. The next closest riding would have been Saint John Harbour, where my numbers show the Liberals having won by 0.16%. This would be a gain for the Liberals, as the riding on its old boundaries elected a Tory in 2010. Fredericton South also saw a close race, with my transposed numbers showing the Liberals having won it by just 0.17% on the new boundaries. The new riding contains the most Liberal parts of two current PC-held ridings, Fredericton-Silverwood and Fredericton-Lincoln. Other close ridings were Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West (Liberal by 1.3%), Miramichi (Liberal by 1.3%), Bathurst West-Beresford (PC by 1.8%), Campbellton-Dalhousie (PC by 2.95%) and Shediac Bay-Dieppe (Liberal by 3.8%).

The 49 new ridings (click to enlarge)

Throughout the election campaign, I will be using my calculated numbers to do my seat projection forecasts for the election. However, there have yet to be any recent polls released in the province, so I will not be doing any projections until they are released. (Any poll conducted before Labour Day should be treated with a grain of salt, anyways).

Kent by-election in New Brunswick

A provincial by-election is currently being held in the riding of Kent, New Brunswick, today. (I would have liked to have done a more thorough analysis of the race, but I was pre-empted by the federal Liberal leadership race map. But anyways, I will lay down the need-to-know)

location

The riding is a rural one, located in Eastern New Brunswick. Its largest community is Bouctouche, a town of 2400 people. The riding is home to three linguistic communities. 55% of the population are Francophone,  one third are English, while 10% of the riding speaks the local Native language, Mi’kmaq (Micmac). The riding extends from the Northumberland Strait in the east into the interior of the province, and consists of two valleys, the Bouctouche River valley in the south, and the Richibucto River valley in the north. The former is home to the French part of the riding, and the latter is Anglophone and is also home to the main Mi’kmaq reserve in the riding, the Elsipogtog First Nation.

The riding was vacated when former Liberal Premier Shawn Graham resigned on March 13. The riding has been in the Graham family since 1967, as his father, Alan served before him. Indeed, the area is a Liberal stronghold, and the riding has voted Liberal in every election since 1917 except for 1971 when one of its then 3 MLAs that got elected was a Tory:

MLAs  since 1917
3 members
P.J. Melanson, Liberal (1917-1925)
A.J. Bordage, Liberal (1917-1944)
A.A. Dysart, Liberal (1917-1940)
R.G. Richard, Liberal (1925-1930)
F.G. Richard, Liberal (1930-1939)
Isaie Melanson, Liberal (1939-1956)
J.K. McKee, Liberal (1940-1952)
Armand Richard, Liberal (1944-1952)
H.A. Dysart, Liberal (1952-1964)
L.J. Robichaud, Liberal (1952-1971)
A.F. Richard, Liberal (1956-1974)
Camille Bordage, Liberal (1964-1967)
Omer Leger, Prog. Cons. (1971-1974)
---
1 member after 1974
A.R. Graham, Liberal (1967-1998)
S.M. Graham, Liberal (1998-2013)

Poll map, 2010 provincial election

Running for the Liberals this time is their current leader, Brian Gallant, a half-Acadian, half-Dutch New Brunswicker. The Tories are running Jimmy Bourque, a former political staffer who does not live in the riding. The NDP is running Susan Levi-Peters, a former chief of the Elsipogtog First Nation, and the provincial candidate in 2010 and also the federal candidate in 2011.

Interestingly, the Anglophone part of the riding is the more Liberal friendly, as former Premier Graham is an Anglophone from the village of Rexton. The Francophone part of the riding is the more Tory friendly, but in the last provincial election, also went Liberal, but with smaller margins. The Tories won all 5 of their polls in the Bouctouche area. The NDP won 2 polls, both on the Elsipogtog First Nation. More than half of the NDP vote in the riding came from those two polls.

Federally, the riding has seen a similar pattern in recent history. Kent is located in the federal riding of Beausejour, which is also a Liberal riding. The Kent part of the riding was very evenly split in the last election, with the remote interior, and the upper Richibucto Valley going Tory, as well as parts of the Bouctouche area. The Bouctouche Valley actually went Liberal, as well as the lower Richibucto Valley. The Mi’kmaq areas went NDP (both reserves in the riding). Before the 2011 election, the Kent area was much more Liberal friendly, with patterns more closely resembling the provincial patterns.

Polls close at 8pm Atlantic (7 Eastern).

Rothesay, New Brunswick provincial by-election

In keeping on the subject of New Brunswick, I musn't forget to mention that the province is having a by-election tomorrow. All eyes will be on the voters in the riding of Rothesay, a suburban riding north of Saint John. The riding has been sitting vacant since its previous MLA, Progressive Conservative Margaret-Ann Blaney resigned a month ago to become CEO of Efficiency New Brunswick.

It is precisely that appointment that Tory Premier David Alward made that has become the issue of the campaign. Efficiency NB is crown corporation, and Blaney's appointment is seen as blatant patronage. However, aside from that, Alward is still fairly popular in the province and Rothesay is a traditional Tory seat.

Riding profile

Location of Rothesay

As mentioned, the riding is located north of the province's largest city, Saint John, and is mostly a suburban riding. Most of the riding consists of the suburban City of Rothesay, but it also consists of of a small part of Saint John (Dury Cove) and parts of neighbouring rural parishes. Politically, the riding has mostly voted for the Tories in its history. Since 1974, the area has voted for the PCs 7 times, and the Liberals just three times. The Liberals only held the seat from 1987 to 1999. The Liberals happened to win every seat in the province in 1987, and benefited from a split in the right wing vote in the 1991 and 1995 elections, when the populist Confederation of Regions Party ate into the Conservative vote. Since 1999, the Tories have usually receive around 50% of the vote in the riding.

MLAs since 1974:

• J.B.M Baxter, Prog. Cons. (1974-1987)
• Ms. E.L. Jarrett, Liberal (1987-1999)
• Mrs. M.-A. Blaney, Prog. Cons. (1999-2011)

Political geography

Poll by poll map of the 2010 election in Rothesay (Map by MaxQue from the
uselectionatlas.org Forum)

Tory strength in this riding is fairly wide spread. In the 2010 provincial election, they won every single poll in the riding. The Tories were the strongest in the north side of the city, while the only polls where they did not get 50% of the vote were in the south, less built up parts of the city. In this election, the Liberals were their main opponent, but they didn't win any polls.

Federally, in the 2011 election, the Tories picked up all but one poll in the area. The Liberals finished 3^rd in the polls in Rothesay, while the NDP finished 2^nd. The only non-Tory poll was won by the NDP. This one poll is located on the northern border of the city, and was won by the NDP by just one vote. The area consists of some small apartment buildings. This north end of the city was still dominated by the Tories, but the NDP did fairly well there too, breaking 30% in most polls. The Tories did less well in the south again, where the Liberal candidate did well.

Party	Provincial result in Rothesay (2010)		Federal result in Rothesay (2011)
	Votes	%	Votes	%
Conservatives	3374	56.6	3153	51.4
Liberal	1694	28.4	1132	18.5
NDP	535	9	1631	26.6
Green	361	6	185	3
Others	-	-	30	0.5

Candidates

The Tories are running a local lawyer and businessman by the name of Ted Flemming. Flemming comes from a long line of politicians. His grandfather, was former Premier Hugh John Flemming, while his great grandfather, James Kidd Flemming was also the Premier of the province. His main rival will likely not be the Liberal candidate, but the NDP candidate, Dominic Cardy. Cardy is the leader of the provincial NDP, and wants to get into the Legislature as soon as possible, considering his party lacks a single seat there. The Liberals are running retired police officer John Wilcox.

Can Cardy win?

NDP vote in Rothesay (2011 federal election)

It was a surprise to me that Cardy decided to run in Rothesay. He's not from the region, and it's not the most NDP friendly area (wealthy suburban). However, the Liberals egged him on suggesting he should do it, and he did (now they're calling him a carpetbagger). Now, some have suggested he might just have a shot to win the riding. The NDP, which has little history in the province, has not won the area before, not federally or provincially. The closest the NDP has ever come to winning the riding was back in 1987, when their leader at the time, George Little ran in this seat and won 32% of the vote. While the NDP only won one poll in the area in the 2011 federal election, they can be comforted with the fact that they won a respectable 27% of the vote in Rothesay, and finished 2^nd. That means there is some base to work from.

Prediction

While I do think the NDP will have an historic night tomorrow, I do not think Cardy will be able to win the seat. The province is just not NDP-friendly, and Rothesay is the wrong place for the party to start a beachhead in. I think the Tories will still come out on top, with around 45% of the vote. The NDP I think will get no more than 40% of the vote. With the race being between the Tories and NDP, the Liberals will be squeezed to less than 15%.

Polls close at 8pm Atlantic (7pm Eastern).