Today there are a couple of provincial by-elections being held in
Ontario, one in the riding of Ottawa—Vanier and one in Niagara
West—Glanbrook. Ottawa—Vanier was vacated in June when its MPP,
Madeleine Meilleur announced her retirement. Meilleur, a Liberal
represented the riding since 2003 and served in the cabinets of both
Dalton McGuinty and Kathleen Wynne. Niagara West—Glanbrook was
vacated in September when its MPP, Tim Hudak resigned to become the
CEO of the Ontario Real Estate Association. Hudak was the leader of
the Progressive Conservatives from 2009 to 2014, leading the party in
the last two provincial elections to disappointing defeats. Hudak had
been an MPP since 1995.
The governing Liberals have continued to slide in the polls in recent
months. In September, they lost a key by-election in
Scarborough—Rouge River to the Tories, in what had been a safe
Liberal seat. Since then, province-wide polling has shown that they
have dropped at least 10 more points, with the most recent Mainstreet
Research poll putting them in third place behind the NDP. Today's
by-elections are in safe seats, but it will be interesting to see the
swings against the Liberals in both ridings, and how well the two
opposition parties gain at their expense.
Ottawa—Vanier
Geography
Ottawa—Vanier is located in the east end of Ottawa, running from
the Rideau Canal in the west to Green's Creek in the east. The
northern boundary is the Ottawa River, while the southern boundary
follows Highway 417, Blair Road and Montreal Road. The riding is
socioeconomically very diverse; it contains Ottawa's oldest
neighbourhood (Lowertown) in the west, post war suburbs in the east,
some of Ottawa's poorest neighbourhoods and also Ottawa's richest
neighbourhood (Rockcliffe Park). The riding is home to both the
normal residence of the Prime Minister (24 Sussex) and the Governor
General (Rideau Hall). The riding is named for its largest
neighbourhood, Vanier which used to be an independent city until it
amalgamated with Ottawa in 2001. Rockcliffe Park was also an
independent municipality until amalgamation. The post-war suburbs in
the east and southeast parts of the riding were formerly in the City
of Gloucester until amalgamation. Other notable neighbourhoods in
the riding include Sandy Hill, the By Ward Market, New Edinburgh,
Manor Park, Overbrook, Beacon Hill North and Pineview. The riding is
also home to the University of Ottawa.
Demographics
Ottawa-Vanier
is one of the most Francophone ridings in the province, with
nearly one third (31%) of the riding having French as their mother
tongue. Vanier itself is almost 50% French, but the surrounding
neighbourhoods also have high French populations. Lowertown
historically has had a high Francophone population, but it has
decreased in recent decades. The riding is still a majority Anglo,
with 52% of the population having English as their first language.
Arabic is the next most spoken mother tongue at 4%. 72% of the
riding is White, with much of this population having French, English,
Irish and Scottish origins. 10% of the riding is Black, while there
are significant populations of Arabs, South Asians, Aboriginals and
Chinese. Nearly two-thirds of the riding (66%) is Christian, with 45%
of the population being Catholic. 8% of the riding is Muslim, while
23% have no religion.
Despite
the presence of wealthy
Rockcliffe
Park in the riding, Ottawa—Vanier is very much working class. The
median household income in the riding is $57,000 (provincial median
is $66,000) while the average income is $77,000 (provincial average
is $86,000). The median individual income ($32,000) is slightly
higher than the provincial median ($31,000). Due to the riding's
close proximity to the Downtown, nearly a quarter of the labour force
works in public administration, dwarfing all other industries.
History
Owing to its large Francophone, working class and public sector
populations, Ottawa—Vanier and its predecessor ridings have
reliably voted Liberal throughout its history. Today, it is one of
the safest Liberal ridings in the province. It has voted Liberal
continuously since 1971 (and has won a majority of the vote in every
election since), and was the party's 8th best seat in
2014. In that election, Meilleur won 56% of the vote, while her PC
opponent won 22% and the NDP candidate won 13%. Once in a while the
riding has elected Tories, but only once in a blue moon. Since last
winning the riding in 1967, the PCs have only broken over 30% of the
vote once (in 1999). The NDP has never won the riding, but has on
occasion finished second. They have only broken 20% once in the
riding's history though, and that was in 1990, when the party was
swept in to power. Owing to its sizable and historical francophone
populations, the riding has elected only Francophones to Queen's Park
since 1911.
Until 1908, all of Ottawa was represented in Queen's Park by the
riding of Ottawa (which at times also included surrounding villages
that would later be absorbed by the city). In 1908, the riding was
split into two parts, Ottawa East and Ottawa West. Ottawa East would
naturally include the eastern parts of the city, namely Sandy Hill,
Lowertown and New Edinburgh. In 1933 it was expanded to include Old
Ottawa East and a strange westerly protrusion which included
Parliament Hill, LeBreton Flats and Mechanicsville (but not the rest
of Downtown Ottawa). In 1966 the boundaries changed again, and the
riding would only include Sandy Hill, Lowertown, New Edinburgh, as
well as the city of Eastview which would become Vanier in 1969. Over
the next few decades, the riding grew in size, gaining Forbes and
Overbrook in 1975, Carson Grove, Cyrville and Quarries in 1987, and
finally Pineview and Beacon Hill North in 1999 when the riding became
known as Ottawa—Vanier (matching the federal riding).
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| List of MPPs for the area |
Political geography
One look at the 2014 map of the riding, and one would think that
Ottawa—Vanier is a pretty homogenous place, as nearly every single
poll voted Liberal. In fact, only three polls voted Tory, and just
one voted NDP. This is how the riding usually goes though. The
Liberals win nearly every single poll, while the NDP and the Tories
are lucky to win a handful across the riding. Usually, the Tories
will win a few suburban polls in the east of the riding, or maybe a
poll or two in Rockcliffe Park, while the NDP might win a few polls
in Sandy Hill or Lowertown. In 2014, the Liberals won every single
neighbourhood in the riding, winning a majority of the vote in most
of them. Meilleur's best neighbourhood was Viscount Alexander Park,
where she won 63% of the vote. Her worst neighbourhood was the
wealthier Rothwell Heights neighbourhood, where she still won 46%,
but lost two polls. Rothwell Heights was the best Tory neighbourhood,
where they won one poll and 39% of the vote. Their worst
neighbourhood was Sandy Hill where they won 15% of the vote. The best
neighbourhood for the NDP was Sandy Hill, thanks in part to a large
student population. They won 17% of the vote there. The worst NDP
neighbourhood was Rockcliffe Park, where they won just 4% of the
vote.
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| 2014 provincial election results by neighbourhood |
Federally, Ottawa—Vanier has seen different political maps in
recent elections. While 2015 was a Liberal wash here, the 2011
election was much more interesting as it was relatively close with
the Liberals winning 38% of the vote, the NDP winning 29% and the
Conservatives 27%. The Liberals may have won the riding, but you
wouldn't know it by looking at a map. The NDP won most of the working
class western part of the riding (Sandy Hill, Vanier, Lowertown and
Overbrook), while the Conservatives won much of the middle class
suburbs in the eastern part of the riding (such as Beacon Hill and
Pineview). The Liberals won the wealthier northern neighbourhoods of
the riding like Manor Park and New Edinburgh, and the won the riding
by finishing 2nd place everywhere else.
Outlook
No matter the outcome of today's by-election, the riding will still
be represented by another Francophone, as all of the major parties
have nominated one. Even with their low poll numbers, the Liberals
are still the favourites to win, thanks to the riding's demographics
and long history of voting Liberal. I should also note anecdotally,
the Ottawa area is far removed from the world of Toronto-centred
provincial politics, and so anger against the provincial government
is not as strong here. The probable winner of today's by-election is
Liberal candidate Nathalie Des Rosiers, the dean of common law at the
University of Ottawa. Her strongest challenge will likely come from
the Tory candidate, André Marin
who is the former ombudsman
of the province. The NDP's candidate is Claude Bisson, a
former RCMP officer and brother of Timmins—James Bay MPP Gilles
Bisson. The Green Party candidate is Raphaël Morin, who ran for the
Greens in last year's federal election in his home riding of Orleans.
Niagara West—Glanbrook
Geography
Niagara West—Glanbrook is located on the south shore of Lake
Ontario on the Niagara Peninsula, nestled between the southern and
eastern edges of Hamilton and the western edges of the St.
Catharines-Niagara metropolitan area. The riding is home to a number
of bedroom communities serving both metros, and all of the rural area
in between. The western third of the riding lies within the city
limits of Hamilton, consisting of the former Township of Glanbrook
and the part of the former city of Stoney Creek south of the Niagara
escarpment. Both of these areas were amalgamated into Hamilton proper
in 2001. This region of the riding contains newer subdivisions,
spilling out from the core of Hamilton, a couple of commuter villages
(Mount Hope and Binbrook) and a large swath of rural area.
Along the north shore of the riding are the municipalities of Grimsby
and Lincoln, which are a mix of bedroom communities (such as Grimsby
itself, Beamsville and Vineland) and rural areas. Toward the interior
south of the riding is the Township of West Lincoln, which is almost
entirely rural except for the community of Smithville. And finally,
in the southeast corner of the riding is the Town of Pelham, which is
basically just a suburb of neighbouring Welland. Most of the
population of Pelham lives in the community of Fonthill.
Demographics
Being
a mostly rural/small town riding, Niagara West—Glanbrook is a
fairly homogeneously White, Anglo-Saxon, Christian riding. 93% of the
riding is White, with the main ethnic groups in the riding being
English, Scottish, Irish, Dutch, Italian, German and French. 86% of
the riding has English as their mother tongue, with Italian and Dutch
being the next two biggest languages at 2% each. Over three-quarters
(76%) of the riding is Christian. 32% of the riding is Catholic, 10%
are United Church and 9% are Anglican. 21% have no religion. The
riding is quite a bit more wealthy than the province as a whole. The
median household income in the riding is $80,000 (provincial median
is $66,000) while the median individual income is $45,000 (provincial
median is $31,000). Manufacturing is the largest industry, with
health care and social assistance not being too far behind.
History
As a riding, Niagara West—Glanbrook is a new creation, born in time
for the 2007 election. A bare majority of the district (Glanbrook,
Stoney Creek and Grimsby) came from the previous riding of Stoney
Creek, while Lincoln and West Lincoln were previously in the riding
of Erie—Lincoln and Pelham was in the riding of Niagara Centre. Tim
Hudak had previously represented Erie—Lincoln, which included his
hometown of Fort Erie. Fort Erie had been redistributed into the more
Liberal-friendly Niagara Falls riding, and instead of running there,
he ran in the new Niagara West riding, which had notionally voted PC
in 2003. Hudak easily won the seat in 2007, 2011 and in 2014. He won
a majority of the vote in both 2007 and 2011, but just 42% in 2014.
He had been helped out by a vote split between the Liberals and NDP
who won 28% and 22% respectively. The Liberals have always finished
second here (ranging from 26% to 36% of the vote), while the NDP has
always finished third (with results ranging from 12% to 22%).
Historically, the western part of the Niagara region in Ontario was
found in the riding of Lincoln until that riding was split up in 1999
when provincial ridings were redistributed to match their federal
counterparts. Lincoln was mostly a Tory seat for much of its history,
though it did go Liberal once in a while and voted for the NDP in
1990. For most of its history, Lincoln contained the municipalities
of Lincoln, West Lincoln and Grimsby (and sometimes Pelham), while
the Hamilton part of the riding was located in Wentworth East (also
known as just Wentworth), which included Glanbrook, all of Stoney
Creek and sometimes part of suburban Hamilton. While Lincoln usually
voted Tory, Wentworth often voted NDP.
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| List of MPPs for the area |
Political geography
There are two kinds of political divides in this riding: rural vs.
urban and west (Hamilton) vs. east. The eastern part of this riding,
which is mostly rural or urban bedroom communities vote more
conservative, while the western part of the riding, which is
influenced by the progressive voting patterns of urban Hamilton is
less conservative. Urban areas, even the commuter towns are less
conservative while the rural areas surrounding them are much more
conservative.
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| 2014 election results by community |
In the 2014 election, Hudak's strongest region of the riding was West
Lincoln Township, where he won 59% of the vote. The rural part of the
township was even better for him, as he won 62% of the vote there.
His worst region in the riding was in Stoney Creek, where he only won
26% of the vote, coming in third behind the Liberals (35%) and the
NDP (33%). Stoney Creek was the best region for both those parties.
The worst neighbourhood for Hudak was the Tirinity/Highland area of
Stoney Creek, where he won just 23% of the vote. The strongest
neighbourhood for the Liberals was actually in Glanbrook. The new
subdivision of Summit Park, which is located adjacent to Stoney Creek
gave the Liberals 41% of the vote. The worst part of the riding for
the Liberals was the rural part of West Lincoln, which gave them just
14%. The best neighbourhood for the NDP was Valley Park in Stoney
Creek, where they won 36% of the vote and the worst area was rural
Lincoln, where they won 14%.
Outlook
With this riding being a pretty safe one to begin with for the
Tories, they should have no problem maintaining it in today's
by-election, especially considering their increased poll numbers. The
only caveat is that they are running a rather controversial candidate
in the 19 year old Sam Oosterhoff, who will become Ontario's youngest
MPP ever if he wins. Oosterhoff, a Brock University student won the
Tory nomination in a surprise upset, defeating former MP Rick Dykstra
and regional councillor Tony Quirk. Oosterhoff's candidacy has been
controversial due to his conservative views on abortion, same-sex
marriage and Ontario's new sex-ed curriculum. Despite his
controversial views, he will in all likelihood win the seat, meaning
the real race will be for second place between the Liberals and NDP.
Running for the Liberals is Hamilton lawyer Vicky Ringuette and
running for the NDP is former Hamilton police union leader Mike
Thomas. The NDP has never finished second in the riding in its short
history, but did finish second in the 2011 federal election. The
Green Party candidate is Donna Cridland, who lives in a neighbouring
riding.
Polls close in both ridings at 9pm.
