Point Doulgas by-election: Post mortem

I haven't made many “post-election analysis” posts on this blog, but it's never too late to start, right? As expected, the NDP managed to win last week's provincial by-election in Point Douglas, Manitoba. A seat they have never lost, and which gave them their best result out of all ridings in the 2016 provincial election. Even though the NDP won, the by-election result was a bit of a disappointment for the party, as they won less than 50% of the vote for the first time in the riding's history.

Preliminary results show the NDP's Bernadette Smith winning 44% of the vote (down from 58% in 2016), with the Liberal's John Cacayuran winning 29% of the vote in second place (up from 19%). This was the Liberal's best showing in the riding since the 1990 election. The Tories finished third with 16% of the vote, only down a quarter of a percentage point from 2016. The Greens finished in fifth, behind the libertarian Manitoba Party. Overall turnout was down 10% from last year's election, to just 32%. While bad, it's not unusual of for by-elections to have turnouts in the low 30s, and considering how low turnout usually is in this riding, it's not that bad.

Elections Manitoba published the preliminary results by polling division, which has allowed me to delve deep into the results to see just what happened on election day. I sure hope they used the same poll map as in the last provincial election.

Race and income by census tract (2011 National Household Survey)

Except for the one polling division in the southeast corner of the riding, Point Douglas' electoral geography is usually quite homogeneous, as the NDP has historically swept almost every poll in this riding. Last week's by-election did identify a political cleavage in the riding, that I believe is most likely based on ethnic lines. The Liberals ended up winning 8 of the 40 polls in the riding, and tying the NDP in one other. Most of these poll wins came from the northwest part of the riding, which has a lower Aboriginal population than the rest of the riding, and a higher Filipino population. This part of the riding is over one-quarter Filipino, which is the highest proportion of Filipinos in the riding. Most of the rest of the riding has a large Aboriginal population (with about 50% of the population in these areas being Native), and these areas stuck with the NDP, who just so happened to be running an Aboriginal candidate. The poll in the southeast corner of the riding stuck with the Tory candidate. This one poll is in an area that is very different from the rest of the riding socioeconomically, with an average income of over $60,000 compared to the low $20,000 range in most of the rest of the riding.

The swing map reinforces my theory of Filipino voters switching their allegiances to the Liberals. Some polls in the northwest of the riding saw up to 30% swings away from the NDP. In fact the poll which was the NDP's best in 2016 was even won by the Liberals! That's not to say it was all bad news for the NDP, as a few polls actually swung in their direction. One poll even saw a nearly 30% swing away from the Liberals! These swings to the NDP came from areas that are the most Aboriginal in the riding, and are also among the poorest parts of the riding.

Contributing to the election results was a likely turnout difference between Filipino and Aboriginal voters, as the northwest part of the riding saw the highest election day turnout, while the poorest and most Aboriginal parts of the riding tended to see the lowest turnout. In fact, there is a clear correlation between swing and turnout; areas that swung the most to the Liberals had a higher turnout, while those areas that had the lowest turnout swung to the NDP (or at least had a lower swing to the Liberals).

What does this all mean for Manitoba politics going forward? Well, not too much, as both the Liberals and NDP are leaderless at the moment. However, it does expose a potential ethnic cleavage in Winnipeg's north end, which may cut into the NDP's dominance of this working class part of the city. We've already seen the Liberals not only make inroads, but sweep this part of the city in the last federal election. I'm not saying they will do this on the provincial level, but winning over Filipino voters will help the Liberals win a few more seats in the region.

Point Douglas by-election preview

Hello readers, it's been a while since my last blog post, due to being quite busy with work, but now that summer approaches, I have a bit more free time to focus on elections across this great country of ours. Of course, summer means a great lack of elections. Oh well. Anyway, those of you who follow me on Twitter will know that I have still been making maps and charts, something that I much prefer over writing, to be honest. It's a lot easier to provide analysis in 140 characters or less!

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Today, Manitoba is seeing its first provincial by-election since the Progressive Conservatives were swept to power in last year's provincial election. The governing Tories have remained fairly popular over the last year, and enjoy a sizable lead in the polls, thanks to a split opposition, and the fact that both the NDP and Liberals are leaderless at the moment, with both parties set to elect new leaders in the Fall.

Today's by-election is in the riding of Point Douglas, perhaps the safest NDP seat in the whole province. In last year's election, the NDP saw its largest share of the vote out of any riding, when they won the seat with 58% of the vote. In the 2011 election, it was the NDP's second best riding in the province, when 73% of voters backed the party. Most of the riding has voted NDP in every election since the party was created, and for its predecessor the Co-Operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF) before that, going back to when single member constituencies were created in Winnipeg for the 1958 election. Even before that, the CCF would regularly win seats in this part of Winnipeg, which has a long working class history.

Point Douglas is located in Winnipeg's notorious north end, and is named for a bend in the Red River. The Red River forms the eastern boundary of the riding, while the northern boundary is formed by Church Street and the western boundary mostly follows Sinclair Street. The southern boundary follows the CPR Winnipeg Yard, and then follows Main Street south to Lombard Avenue, and then east to the Red River. This diversion creates a bit of a “panhandle” in the southeast of the riding. While this unites all of Point Douglas together, it lumps two very socioeconomically different neighbourhoods together.

The riding is one of the poorest in the province, with most census tracts reporting an average annual income of less than $25,000. One exception is the South Point Douglas area (the aforementioned “panhandle”), which reported an average income of $63,000 in 2010. The riding has a very large First Nations population, as well as a sizable Filipino population.

Results by neighbourhood (2016 provincial and 2015 federal elections)
Click to enlarge

In the last two elections, the NDP won nearly every single poll in the riding. In 2011 the NDP won all but one poll, and in 2016, the lost just two. In 2016, the Liberals won the Lord Dufferin Park apartments, while the furthest southerly poll has voted for the Tories in both elections. This poll covers the Exchange District and Civic Centre neighbourhoods, located right next to Downtown. In federal elections, Point Douglas usually always votes NDP. However, in the 2015 election, the area switched allegiances en masse to the Liberals, thanks in part to the popularity of Winnipeg North MP Kevin Lemoureux, whose support base had previously been further west in the district. Lamoureux won 62% of the vote in Point Douglas in 2011.

In both the 2011 and 2016 elections, the NDP won a majority of votes in every neighbourhood except the South Point Douglas area, where they still managed to win pluralities in both elections. In the 2015 federal election, the Liberals won a majority of the vote in every neighbourhood, with North Point Douglas being their worst at 55% of the vote. North Point Douglas was the NDP's best neighbourhood in the 2016 provincial election (63%) and second best in 2015, after Lord Selkirk Park. Interestingly, Lord Selkirk Park was the Liberals' best neighbourhood in the last two provincial elections. The Tories typically do the best in the South Point Douglas area, winning 35% of the vote in 2016 and 41% in 2011. However, their best neighbourhood in the federal election was actually St. John's Park, winning just 18% of the vote. The Greens also do their best in the South Point Douglas area, winning nearly 10% of the vote there in 2016.

Point Douglas representation history (since 1958)

Point Douglas was vacated last January when its MLA, Kevin Chief resigned citing family reasons. He had represented the seat since 2011. Since the riding was re-created in 1990, Point Douglas has continuously been represented by members of the First Nations community, as both Chief and his predecessor, George Hickes are Aboriginals.

The NDP hopes to continue the riding's tradition of electing First Nations MLAs, with their candidate Bernadette Smith. Smith's credentials include pushing for an inquiry into missing and murdered indigenous women, and advocacy for women's and indigenous rights. The Liberals are running John Cacuyaran, a former staffer for MP Maryann Mihychuk. The Tories are running electrician Jodi Moskal, the Greens are running Sabrina Koehn Binesi and the libertarian “Manitoba Party” is running their leader, Gary Marshall.

This should be an NDP hold, but turnout will be a big factor in this riding. The NDP can usually count on the support from First Nations residents in the riding, and it will help that they have an Aboriginal candidate. The NDP's main competition will be from the Liberals, who are notably not running a First Nations candidate. The Liberals' poll numbers are currently just below the NDP in province-wide polling, which would not ordinarily be enough to take this riding, but will be enough to ensure a second place finish, which they did not get in 2011 (but did get in 2016). That is not to say that this riding could not go Liberal in the future, as the federal election results prove that this is more than possible. But provincial politics in Manitoba is much differently aligned than in federal elections, and the provincial Liberal Party is too unorganized to pick this seat up.

We'll see who wins when polls close at 8pm (9pm Eastern).

Manitoba municipal elections today

Residents in 134 of Manitoba's 137 municipalities will be heading to the polls today to elect their mayors, reeves, municipal councils and school trustees. The municipalities of Dunnottar, Victoria Beach and Winnipeg Beach went to the polls already, back in July, but the rest of the province votes today. Since the last municipal elections held in 2010, there have been a series of amalgamations across the province which are set to take effect on January 1. Elections for these new municipalities will be held today as well. These amalgamations were necessitated by new legislation limiting the population of municipalities in the province to at least 1000 people. Some municipalities in the province won't be going to the polls today because their entire councils have been acclaimed. These include Altona, Arborg, Carman, Elton, Gillam, Killarney-Turtle Mountain, Lac du Bonnet (town), Melita, Morris (town), Rhineland, St. Pierre-Jolys and Virden.

Newly amalgamated municipalities identified with red text.

Brandon

The race for mayor in Manitoba's second largest city is expected to be a close one between current mayor and former NDP MLA Shari Decter Hirst and former Deputy Mayor Rick Chrest. Chrest, who also has a background in business has been described as a centrist in contrast to the life-long New Democrat in Decter Hirst. Decter Hirst's mayoralty has been dogged by controversies over the last four years, but nonetheless could still eke out a victory. There haven't been any recent polls that I could find, but one conducted in January by Probe Research showed that Decter Hirtst was losing to Chrest by 5 points. However, that was a whole 10 months ago. There are two other candidates running for mayor, former teacher John Pauld Jacobson and businessman Mark Kovatch.

Map of Brandon's wards

In 2010, Decter Hirst unseated the incumbent mayor Dave Burgess, a Tory. Dexter Hirst won every ward in the city, despite only having won by 1500 votes. Burgess won a few polling stations in the more suburban, conservative-leaning suburbs in the western part of the city. However his support was not concentrated enough to win any wards. He came the closest to winning Linden Lanes Ward in the southwest corner of the city, which he lost by just three votes. Decter Hirst's strongest areas were in the more left-leaning central parts of the city. Her best ward was Rosser Ward which covers the city's downtown. If there's one ward Decter Hirst wins today, it will be Rosser. Chrest is likely to win a number of the wards in the western part of the city, and possibly some in the east part of the city, where he's from.

Winnipeg

By far, Manitoba's largest city is Winnipeg, which is home to more than half the province's population. The race for mayor of the city will be a free-for-all, as outgoing mayor Sam Katz will not be running again. The race to replace him is expected to be quite close between former NDP MP Judy Wasylycia-Leis and centre-right candidate Brian Bowman, the former chair of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce. A poll released by Inisghtrix Research conducted earlier this month showed Bowman leading 38% to Wasylycia-Leis' 36%. University of Manitoba administrator Robert-Falcon Ouellette was at 14% and former city councillor Gord Steeves was at 9%. Wasylycia-Leis had been leading in polls for most of the campaign, but now that the election is here it appears the conservative vote in the city has coalesced behind Bowman, and could be enough to put him in the mayor's chair. Other candidates in the race are exotic dancer booking manager Michel Fillion, city councillor Paula Havixbeck and public administration executive David Sanders.

Map of Winnipeg's wards

Wasylycia-Leis ran for mayor back in 2010 as well, losing to Katz 55% to 43%. Katz had been mayor of the city since 2004, when he won a rare mayoral by-election to replace outgoing mayor Glen Murray who would later become a cabinet minister in Ontario. In 2010, Katz won 11 of the city's 15 wards, while Wasylycia-Leis won the remaining four wards. His strongest wards were in the west end of the city, which is also the most conservative part of the city. His strongest ward was Charleswood-Tuxedo where he won 70% of the vote. This ward covers three of the city's four Progressive Conservative-held ridings in the Manitoba Legislative Assembly. Wasylycia-Leis' four wards were in the north and central part of the city, Winnipeg's traditional working class and staunch NDP voting areas. Her strongest ward was Daniel McIntyre, which covers the Minto and Wolseley areas in the central part of the city. Interestingly, this area is in the federal riding of Winnipeg Centre, which was never held by Wasylycia-Leis herself. Wasylycia-Leis represented neighbouring Winnipeg North, which is still an area she did well in.

Winnipeg has historically been a very polarized city between its working class left-leaning north side, and the wealthier right-leaning south and west. In order to win elections in the city, parties and candidates have to be able to bridge this gap. The more centrist provincial NDP have been able to do this very successfully in recent provincial elections. In the 2011 election, only five of the city's 31 ridings did not go to the NDP. For the NDP, this meant winning several seats (a majority, in fact) in the south end of the city. Federally, the Conservatives have been able to bridge this gap in recent elections. They hold all but two seats in the city, including the (former) NDP stronghold of Elmwood—Transcona. Sam Katz also bridged this gap in the mayoral election in 2010. For Judy Wasylycia-Leis, she needs to not only win the north side, but break into the more wealthy south side of the city. For Bowman, he needs to hold on to most of Katz's wards in order to win.

It is quite fortunate for political watchers that both of Manitoba's major cities will see exciting elections today, with two candidates representing very different visions in each city. Polls close tonight at 8pm local time, or 9pm Eastern.

Provincial by-elections next week (Fort Whyte, Kitchener-Waterloo, Vaughan)

Next week along witth the Quebec election, there will be three provincial by-elections across Canada. On Tuesday, the same day as the Quebec election, voters in the riding of Fort Whyte in Manitoba will be heading to the polls while on Thursday voters in Kitchener—Waterloo and Vaughan, Ontario will be heading to the polls. Before I make my final Quebec prediction on Monday or Tuesday, I should do a wrap up of these by-elections.

Fort Whyte, Manitoba

Poll map being used in the by-election.
Note: boundaries differ from the 2011 election.

This suburban riding located on the southwestern edge of Winnipeg is being vacated by out-going former PC leader Hugh McFadyen who had announced following his party's defeat in the 2011 provincial election that he would be stepping down as leader. And now, he is stepping down as MLA as well.

Fort Whyte is the safest Tory seat in the city. McFadyen won the riding in 2011 with 62% of the vote. He won all but 2 polls, which were ties with the NDP candidate. The riding has a short history, having only been created in 1999 from Fort Garry and from Tuxedo. Its creation can be attributed to the fact that it is made up mostly of newer homes, and it continues to grow with development in the southern part of the riding. It is also the second wealthiest riding in the province.

Ever since its creation, the riding has been a safe PC seat. It was held by John Lowen from 1999 to 2005 and by McFadyen ever since. The Tories normally get 50-60% of the vote here, while the NDP usually gets less than 30% of the vote. The Liberals usually get around 10-20%. There appears to be about 10% of the vote that swings between the Liberals and the PCs depending on their campaigns.

Federally, the riding is mostly located in the riding of Winnipeg South. A small part of the northern extremity of Fort Whyte is found in the riding of Winnipeg South Centre. Much like the provincial Tories, the federal Conservative part dominates this area as well.

While Fort Whyte is politically fairly homogenous, it is divided into two distinct parts based on its history. The northern half of the riding is part of the former municipality of Tuxedo, while the southern half is from the former municipality of Fort Garry. Both were amalgamated into Winnipeg in 1972, but are still very distinct parts of the city. When Fort Whyte was created, its two previous ridings were also Fort Garry and Tuxedo. The wealthy Tuxedo riding was the safest Tory seat in the city, and was represented by former Manitoba Premier Gary Filmon from its creation in 1981 until 2000, after Fort Whyte was split off from the riding. Fort Garry was also very Tory. Before Fort Whyte was created, Fort Garry had only not voted Tory once, in 1988 when it went Liberal.

Fort Garry MLAs (1958-1999)

S. R. Lyon, Prog. Cons. (1958-1969)

L. R. Sherman, Prog. Cons. (1969-1984)
C. T. Birt, Prog. Cons. (1984-1988)

L. E. Evans, Liberal (1988-1990)
Ms. Rosemary Vodrey, Prog. Cons. (1990-1999)

Looking ahead to Tuesday's by-election, it is clear that the Tories will win the seat. They are running their currently seat-less leader, former MP Brian Pallister in the riding. There has only been on province-wide poll since the 2011 election, and it showed that not much has changed in the province. That means, Pallister should easily win a seat in the Legislative Assembly. The NDP's sacrificial lamb in the seat is Brandy Schmidt, the current community engagement manager for the Multiple Sclerosis Society in Manitoba. The Liberals are running Bob Axworthy, brother of former federal cabinet minister Lloyd Axworthy.

Meanwhile, in Ontario...

And now for the more important races next week (sorry, Manitoba). The reason the Ontario by-elections are so important are because the fate of the entire government hangs on them. Do you remember the results of the 2011 provincial election? The Liberals won a minority government, missing out on a majority by one seat. That's why these two by-elections are so important. Come Friday morning, Ontarians might wake up to a Liberal majority government with most Ontarians not even going to the polls. The Liberals have to win both Vaughan and Kitchener—Waterloo to get their majority, since one of those seats (Kitchener—Waterloo) voted for an opposition MPP last year. However, polls show that they are at risk of losing both seats. Kitchener—Waterloo

Kitchener-Waterloo results by poll (2011 provincial election)

The first vacancy was announced back in April when it was announced that PC MPP Elizabeth Witmer had been named the head of the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board. Liberals were licking their lips at that announcement, as Witmer was seen as someone whose name carried more weight than her party in the riding. Kitchener—Waterloo is more of a swing riding, and would probably have gone Liberal in 2011 if it had not been for Witmer. And that's why the Liberals were so happy to see her go. Out of all the Tory or NDP held seats in the province, Kitchener—Waterloo is seen as the most likely to go Liberal in a by-election.

However, the Liberals picking up this seat is nothing from certain. A Forum Research poll from earlier in August  showed the Liberals tied with the NDP at 30%, behind the Tories who were at 34%. Still, anyone's ball game.

Riding profile

Despite its name, the riding is mostly centred on the City of Waterloo, with only a small chunk lying in Kitchener. The riding has swung back in forth between the Liberals and the Tories, but has mostly leaned towards the Liberals since confederation. Witmer has held the riding for the last 22 years however, being first elected in 1990. Before that Liberal Herb Epp held the seat for 13 years.

MPPs:

1) Moses Springer, Liberal (1867-1881)
2) E.W.B Snider, Liberal (1881-1894)
3) A.B. Robertson, Liberal (1894-1898)
4) H.G. Lackner, Conservative (1898)
5) L.J. Bretihaupt, Liberal (1899-1902)
6) H.G. Lackner, Conservative (1902-1912) 2^nd time7) C.H. Mills, Conservative (1912-1919)
8) Nicholas Asmussen, Ind. Liberal (1919-1923)
9) W.G. Weichel, Conservative (1923-1929)
10) S.C. Tweed, Liberal (1929-1934)
11) Nicholas Asmussen, Liberal (1934-1937), 2^nd time
12) J.A. Smith, Liberal (1937-1943)
13) J.H. Cook, CCF (1943-1945)
14) J.I. Meinzinger, Lib-Lab./Ind. (1945-1948)
15) J.G. Brown, Liberal (1948-1951)
16) S.F. Leavine, Prog. Cons. (1951-1955)
17) J.J. Wintermeyer, Liberal (1955-1963)
18) K.E. Butler, Prog. Cons. (1963-1967)
19) E.R. Good, Liberal (1967-1977)
20) H.A. Epp, Liberal (1977-1990)
21) Ms. Elizabeth Witmer, Prog. Cons. (1990-2012)

Both federally and provincially, the riding is fairly polarized. Recent elections on both levels have been somewhat close between the Liberals and the Tories, both getting around 40%. The NDP routinely gets around 15%. The NDP vote has been said to be lower than expected for a riding of this demographic due to left of centre voters voting Liberal.

The Liberals are the strongest in the central part of the riding, which is around the Waterloo Downtown area as well as the University of Waterloo. The Tory support is concentrated on the fringes of the riding, both north, east and west. The NDP normally wins a hand full of polls, on the Kitchener side of the riding close to that city's downtown.

Looking ahead to the by-election, there is likely to be a 3-way fight, if that Forum poll is to be believed. All three parties have high stakes going into the election. The Tories are running businesswoman Tracey Weiler who hopes to keep the riding in Tory hands, and out of the Liberals. The Liberals hope to get their majority on the back of lawyer Eric Davis. The NDP hopes to surprise many by picking up the riding for the first time in its history (2^nd time if you count the CCF) with their candidate, school trustee Catherine Fife.

Vaughan

Vaughan election results by poll (2011 provincial election)

Vaughan is a sprawling suburban riding located north of Toronto. Vaughan is a heavily Italian riding and very Catholic (77%). For most of its history it has been a safe Liberal seat, and is the most likely to go Liberal of the two by-elections. The Forum poll from last month showed the Liberals ahead by 11 points, but an earlier poll showed the Tories ahead by one point. The NDP meanwhile is not running a serious campaign there. While the seat has been a safe Liberal one on the provincial scene, federally it has turned into a safe Tory seat. That means a Tory win on Thursday might not be that much of a surprise.

The seat was vacated when Liberal Greg Sorbara, Ontario's former Finance Minister resigned. He had held the seat from 1985 to 1995 and since 2001. Since then, he had regularly won the riding by large amounts.

MPPs:

1) Jn. McMurrich, Liberal (1867-1871)
2) Alfred Boultbee, Conservative (1871-1874)
3) J.H. Widdifield, Liberal (1875-1888)
4) E.J. Davis, Liberal (1888-1904)
5) T.H. Lennox, Conservative (1905-1923)
6) Wm. Keith, Conservative (1923-1926)

7) P.W. Pearson, Liberal (1926-1929)
8) Clifford Case, Conservative (1929-1934)
9) Morgan Baker, Liberal (1934-1943)

10) G.H. Mitchell, CCF (1943-1945)
11) A.A. MacKenzie, Prog. Cons. (1945-1967)
12) W.M.C. Hodgson, Prog. Cons. (1967-1985)
13) G.S. Sorbara, Liberal (1985-1995)

14) Al Palladini, Prog. Cons. (1995-2001)

15) G.S. Sorbara, Liberal (2001-2012), 2^nd time

Vaughan is a huge riding in terms of population. The last census recorded the population of the riding at 196,000 – almost twice the size of an average riding in Ontario. It covers most of the city of Vaughan- one of Ontario's fastest growing municipalities. The only part of the city not in the riding is the southeastern corner which belongs to Thornhill.

Provincially and federally, the riding is a very different place. While the Liberal Sorbara won his provincial race by nearly 11,000 votes, his federal counterpart, Julian Fantino, a Conservative won the riding by 18,000 votes. Federally, the riding is very blue, while provincially it is very red. Personality is big in this riding, and that's why winning the seat when it's open is very important. Fantino was lucky enough to win Vaughan in a by-election two years ago by just 900 votes. He proved to be so popular, that he turned this into an 18,000 vote victory in last year's federal election, just 5 months after the by-election. However, just five months later, those same voters gave Sorbara an 11,000 vote victory in the provincial election.

The Liberals best part of the riding of the riding is the community of Maple, in the riding's east end. This is where the federal party won most of their small handful of polls in the federal election, and where Sorbara did the best provincially. The Liberals next best part of the riding is in Woodbridge, in the southwest. The Tories best areas are in the more rural parts of the riding, in the community of Kleinburg in the northwestern corner of the riding and along the eastern border of the riding, bordering Richmond Hill.

Running for the Liberals is Steven Del Duca, a former executive assistant of Sorbara. Running for the Tories again is Tony Genco, who was their candidate last election, and ran for the federal Liberals in the federal election five months prior. The NDP is running Paul Donofrio, a former fleet co-ordinator for the city.

Predictions!

In Fort Whyte, I'm going to go out on a limb (sarcasm) and call the Tories the winners there. They won't get the 62% they got last election, because there will be some push back against Pallister who is carpetbagging the district. But, he will get somewhere in the mid-50s. You can except the NDP to get a dead-cat bounce up to around 30%, while the Liberals will also get a boost from a few disgruntled Tories and get back up to double digits.

In Kitchener—Waterloo, I will have to use my thinking cap. It's really a hard call, as clearly either of the three parties could win this. The Tories led in the last poll, and so they look like they're in good position, however it has been a few weeks, and we all know how bad summer polling is. The riding seems like it is a natural Liberal one, at least when the party is polling well, but they're not, so it's not looking good for the Liberals. But if the NDP-Tory vote split is almost even, the Liberals could pick this seat up with barely more than 30% of the vote. Meanwhile, the NDP could easily win this seat. The NDP is notorious for winning surprise by-election victories, and with their new standing across the country, and their high poll numbers provincially, it wont be that much of a surprise if they win it. It will be a test of the party to see if they can start winning seats like this one where they lack a tradition, but may be somewhat left of centre. It's difficult to guess how well the NDP will do here, as they lack any history, having not even won the area in their 1990 majority (my sources tell me they won the area with the present boundaries though). Low 30s would be a good guess. As for the Liberals, I think they wont even break 30%, getting somewhere around 28 or 29%. However, I predict the Tories to win in a nail biter with 34% of the vote.

In Vaughan, it all comes down to the name on the ballot. Tory candidate Genco is already a two time loser, and is a party switcher to boot. Way to alienate half of the electorate. I don't think voters in Vaughan are going to trust him enough to vote for him. He's not a strong candidate like Fantino, and wont have a chance in this Liberal leaning district. I predict the Liberals will get somewhere in the high 40s, while Genco will not be able to improve much on his provincial numbers, getting somewhere in the high 30s. The NDP vote will be severely suppressed, and will be in single digits.