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| Signs in Ottawa South |
Five by-elections go today in Ontario in rookie Premier
Kathleen Wynne’s first electoral test since being chosen as Liberal leader in
February. All five by-elections were caused as the result of Liberal
resignations, which means the one-seat minority government that Wynne leads
will not turn into a majority like it could have in the Kitchener-Waterloo
by-election last September. In fact, what is more likely to happen is Wynne’s
government will be weakened even more, as she is most likely going to lose at
least one riding, and could even lose all of them!
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| Locations of the 5 by-elections |
The by-elections are being held in five mostly urban
ridings, across southern Ontario, all previously held by high profile Liberals:
Ottawa South (caused by the resignation of former Premier Dalton McGuinty), Scarborough-Guildwood
(caused by the resignation of former Minister of Consumer Services Margarett
Best), Etobicoke-Lakeshore (caused by the resignation of Minister of
Intergovernmental Affairs Laurel Broten), London West (caused by the
resignation of former Minister of Energy Chris Betley) and Windsor-Tecumseh
(caused by the resignation of former Minister of Finance Dwight Duncan). One
can only wonder why the huge departure of so many high ranking Liberals. Is it
not wanting to deal with a minority legislature, or is it something to do with
Wynne?
All five seats will be exciting to watch, because all five
have the possibility of being lost by the Liberals. Of the five, three are held
by non-Liberal MPs in the federal House of Commons. Only Ottawa South (Dalton’s
brother, David McGuinty) and Scarborough-Guildwood (John McKay) are held by
Liberals. Current polling suggests that the Liberals lead in only
Scarborough-Guildwood, but even that riding is no sure bet, as the Tories and
NDP are close behind.
Speaking of polls, the most recent (July 30/31) Forum Research polls in
each riding show the following:
Ottawa South: PC: 52%;
Lib: 36%; NDP: 9%;
Grn: 3%
Scarborough-Guildwood: Lib:
38%; PC: 31%; NDP:
27%; Grn: 3%
Etobicoke-Lakeshore: PC:
47%; Lib: 43%; NDP:
7%; Grn: 3%
London West: PC: 38%;
NDP: 36%; Lib: 15%;
Grn: 6%; Other: 5%
Windsor-Tecumseh: NDP:
52%; PC: 28%; Lib:
12%; Grn: 6%
And polls done by Corporate Research (July 30):
Ottawa South: PC: 42%;
Lib: 35%; NDP: 12%;
Grn: 6%
Scarborough-Guildwood: Lib:
37%; PC: 32%; NDP:
24%; Grn: 3%
Etobicoke-Lakeshore: Lib: 43%; PC:
42%; NDP: 11%; Grn: 3%
London West: PC: 33%;
NDP: 30%; Lib: 19%;
Grn: 8%; Fdm: 9%
Windsor-Tecumseh: NDP:
52%; PC: 22%; Lib:
16%; Grn: 5%
And now, a look at each of the five ridings:
Ottawa South
Ottawa South is my home riding, the one I was born in and
the one where I grew up in. I feel I have a special attachment here, and out of
all the ridings in the province, I know Ottawa South the best. The riding is
located in the south end of the city, and is a combination of post-war suburbs
and more recent developments. The riding runs from the Queensway in the north
down to the Macdonald-Cartier
Airport in the south, and from the Rideau River in the west to Highway 417 in
the east. The riding is often considered a “safe Liberal” seat, as it is one of
the few ridings that went Liberal in the 2011 federal election. However, the
riding is more of a right-Liberal riding, as the Liberals it tends to elect are
more right wing. Municipally, the ward that makes up much of the riding- Alta
Vista- has mostly elected conservative leaning councillors. The current councillor, Peter Hume, is a
Red Tory (moderate conservative). Prior to the late 1980s, the riding actually
did vote conservative. In fact, the Ottawa South provincial riding went
exclusively conservative from its creation in 1926 until 1987. Although before
1967, the riding was located in central Ottawa, and not where it is today. The
riding has been nicknamed “McGuintyland”, as it has been represented by
Dalton’s father (Dalton, Sr.) before Dalton Jr. provincially, and it is
currently represented by Dalton’s brother federally.
MPPs (following Russell before 1967)
1) Wm. Craig, Cons. (1867-1874)
2) A.J. Baker, Cons. (1875-1883)
3)
Honore Robillard, Cons. (1883-1886)
4) A. Robillard, Liberal (1886-1898)
5) Onesime Guibord, Liberal (1898-1904)
6) Damase Racine, Liberal (1905-1921)
7) Alfred Goulet, Liberal (1921-1923)
8)
Aurelien Belanger, Liberal
(1923-1926); Ind-Lib (1926-1929)
9) C.A. Seguin, Cons. (1929-1934)
10) Arthur Desrosiers, Liberal (1934-1937)
11)
Romeo Begin, Liberal (1937-1948)
12) J.D. Nault, Prog. Cons. (1948-1954)
13) Gordon Lavergne, Prog. Cons. (1954-1963)
14) A.B.R. Lawrence, Prog. Cons. (1963-1967)
15) W.I. Haskett, Prog. Cons. (1967-1971)
16)
C.F. Bennett, Prog. Cons. (1971-1987)
17) D.J.P. McGuinty (Sr.), Liberal (1987-1990)
18)
D.J.P. McGuinty (Jr.), Liberal
(1990-2013)
Political geography
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| 2011 poll map |
The riding is very static in its voting, with the Liberals
regularly getting around 50% of the vote provincially and between 45 and 50%
federally in recent elections. This has resulted in fairly static political
geography as well. The Liberals usually win almost all areas of the riding,
except the far southern end of the riding, which is more “suburban” in nature.
Blossom Park, a community in the former city of Gloucester is regularly the
most conservative part of the riding, couple with the Uplands area, next to the
Airport. The 2011 election saw the Tories won isolated polls outside this area,
but nothing concentrated. In past federal election, the Tories have also had
strong results in areas like Urbandal Acres (2011), Riverside Park South (2008),
and Elmvale Acres (in 2006). While the Liberals tend to do well nearly
everywhere in the riding, but their most consistently best area is the Alta
Vista area, basically everything included in the old pre-1994 Alta Vista Ward.
The Liberals also routinely do well in the ethnically diverse and lower class
Heron Gate neighbourhood. This neighbourhood is often the best area for the NDP
as well, depending on who the candidate is. The area has a high Somali and Arab
population, so candidates from one of those backgrounds tend to do well there,
eating into Liberal votes. The NDP did not win any polls in the 2011 provincial
election, but won a scattering of polls in the 2011 federal election (mostly in
lower class apartments or community housing projects).
Candidates
The Liberals are running McGuinty’s constituency aid, John
Fraser. The Tories are running multinational defence contractor Matt Young, the
NDP is running School Board Trustee Bronwyn Funicello and the Greens are
running 2011 Glengarry-Prescott-Russell candidate Taylor Howarth. Fraser has been running on (notably not
“away from”) his record as McGuinty’s aide. This has been backfiring for him in
the polls. While Ottawa South may be the most McGuinty-friendly riding in the
province, it is still not immune from the toxicity of Dalton McGuinty and the
recent scandals that have come out (most notably the gas plant scandal). Matt
Young is a young, energetic candidate, but has little name recognition. He has
been bolstered however by a strong anti-Liberal protest vote which could carry
him into Queen’s Park. The NDP is running perhaps their strongest candidate
ever, and the strongest possible candidate they could ever hope for in the
vice-chair of the Ottawa-Carleton District School Board. Funicello’s zone
covers the Alta Vista Ward which is in the riding, as well as her home Ward of
Rideau-Rockcliffe (which is not in the riding). This gives her name recognition
in the riding, and while she may hail from Rideau-Rockcliffe, much of her
support in past school board elections have come from Alta Vista. Despite her
name recognition and star power, Funicello has polled rather low, proving that
the NDP will probably never have a chance in Ottawa South.
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough-Guildwood is one of the newer ridings in
Scarborough, being formed out of Scarborough East in 2004. It is located in
south-central Scarborough, and is named for one of its more notable
neighbourhoods, Guildwood. (Guildwood is also the name of the GO Station in the
riding). Guildwood is not the only neighbourhood in the riding. It also
includes West Hill, Scarborough Village, Woburn, Bendale, Cliffcrest, Eglinton
East and Morningside. The riding runs from Bellamy Rd in the west to Highland
Creek in the east, and from Lake Ontario in the south to Highway 401 in the
north. While the riding may be the Liberal’s best bet to win any seat in the
by-elections, it hasn’t always been a safe Liberal seat. If you count
Scarborough East as the riding’s predecessor, than the riding has only been
Liberal since 2003. Federally, the riding has been Liberal since 1993.
MPPs:
1) H.P. Crosby, Liberal (1867-1874)
2) Jn. Lane, Liberal (1874-1879)
3) G.W. Badgerow, Liberal (1879-1886)
4) G.B. Smith, Liberal (1886-1894)
5)
Jn. Richardson, Liberal (1894-1905)
6) Alex. McCowan, Cons. (1905-1913)
7)
G.S. Henry, Cons. (1913-1943)
8) Ms. A.C. Macphail, CCF (1943-1945)
9) Jn. Leslie, Prog. Cons. (1945-1948)
10) Ms. A.C. Macphail, CCF (1948-1951) 2nd time
11) H.E. Beckett, Prog. Cons. (1951-1955)
12) Richard Sutton, Prog. Cons. (1955-1963)
13)
L.M. Hodgson, Prog. Cons. (1963-1967)
14) T.E. Reid, Liberal (1967-1971)
15) Ms. Margaret Birch, Prog. Cons. (1971-1985)
16) E.A. Fulton, Liberal (1985-1990)
17) R.T.S. Frankford, NDP (1990-1995)
18) S. Gilchrist, Prog. Cons. (1995-2003)
19) Ms. M.A.V. Chambers, Liberal (2003-2007)
20)
Ms. M.R. Best, Liberal (2007-2013)
Political geography
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| 2011 poll map |
Politically speaking, the riding is quite homogenous. Best’s
20 point victory in the 2011 election reduced the Tory candidate to winning
just nine polls. None of the polls were concentrated in any one part of the
riding. Best’s support wasn’t very concentrated either, except for perhaps in
smaller, high-density polls. Federally, the 2011 election in the riding was a
very close one, but not one that showed much of a geographical divide in the
riding. One thing that does stand out
is that Liberal support in the riding seems to be somewhat concentrated not in
any particular neighbourhoods, but along the major thoroughfares of the riding,
especially Lawrence Ave. Lawrence Ave is home to many Liberal-voting apartment
complexes. The Conservatives tend to do
better away from the major roads, in the more suburban areas. Their best areas
have historically have been the west half of the Morningside neighbourhood and
the eastern half of the West Hill neighbourhood. The NDP, which won no polls in
the riding in the provincial election, won quite a few in the federal election.
These were also found in the high-density apartment complexes spread across the
riding, but also in parts of Morningside and Scarborough Village. However, the
cleavages found in the 2011 federal election were less apparent in the 2011
provincial election.
Candidates
One thing to know about Scarborough-Guildwood is how diverse it is. Over
half the population of the riding is foreign born, and includes a large South
Asian, Filipino and West Indian population. The Liberals and Tories both
selected minority candidates to reflect the riding’s diversity. The Liberals
are running the CEO of the Greater Toronto CivicAction Alliance, Mitzie Hunter.
Like Best, Hunter is also a Jamaican immigrant. It should be noted that 10% of
the riding comes from either Guyana, Jamaica or Trinidad and Tobago. The Tories
are running Sri Lankan immigrant and realtor Ken Kirupa. The Sri Lankan population in the riding is huge
in of itself, numbering 8000 immigrants. While the Liberals and Tories selected
candidates with strong ethnic ties, the NDP brought out their own big gun with
their candidate, former Toronto city councillor Adam Giambrone. Giambrone
represented Davenport on city council, a far cry from Scarborough, but he still
brings name recognition to the table, as he had an aborted run for mayor of the
city in 2010. Giambrone’s name comes with controversy however, as his 2010
mayoral campaign was cut short due to a sex scandal. The Greens are running
Nick Leeson, a local lawyer. If the riding splits on an ethnic divide, it is
possible that Giambrone could come up the middle and win. The NDP has little
history in the area, having only won it in 1990, although it is riding like
this one that the party has to win to form government. The party did win 27% of
the vote in the federal election. However, the Liberals, with their recent
history in the riding still have the advantage. It should be noted that the
South Asian community in the riding is significantly larger than the West
Indian, so if an ethnic cleavage occurs, the Tories have the advantage.
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Further to the west on the shore of Lake Ontario, is another
lakefront riding, Etobicoke-Lakeshore. The riding represents the southern third
of the former borough of Etobicke in the southwestern corner of the city. The
riding consists of the neigbourhoods of Islington, The Kingsway, Mimico, New
Toronto, Alderwood, Eatonville, the Queensway and Long Branch. The riding has
the highest Slavic language speaking population in the country. The riding is a
Liberal leaning bellwether seat, which was the seat that former federal Liberal
leader Michael Ignatieff held and lost in the 2011 federal election. It has voted
Liberal federally most of the time since its creation, except when the Tories
have formed majority governments- in 1984, 1988 and 2011. It also went NDP
once, in 1972. Provincially the riding has been a bellwether since 1990, having
voted for the winning party in every election since then. Before 1990, it has a
swing riding between the NDP and Tories.
MPPs:
1) Thos. Grahame, Cons. (1867-1871)
2) Peter Patterson, Liberal (1871-1883)
3) Jn. Gray, Cons. (1883-1886)
4) J.T. Gilmour, Liberal (1886-1894)
5) J.W. St. John, Cons. (1894-1898)
6) W.J. Hill, Liberal (1898-1902)
7) J.W. St. John, Cons. (1902-1907) 2nd time
8) F.E. Godfrey, Cons. (1907-1932)
9)
H.I. Price, Cons. (1932-1934)
10) W.J. Gardhouse, Liberal (1934-1943)
11) C.H. Millard, CCF (1943-1945)
12) J.P. Allan, Prog. Cons. (1945-1948)
13) C.H. Millard, CCF (1948-1951) 2nd time
14) W.E. Brandon, Prog. Cons. (1951-1956)
15) H.L. Rowntree, Prog. Cons (1956-1963)
16)
R.A. Eagelson, Prog. Cons.
(1963-1967)
17) P.D. Lawlor, NDP (1967-1981)
18) A. Kolyn, Prog. Cons. (1981-1985)
19) Ms. R.A. Grier, NDP (1985-1995)
20) Morley Kells, Prog. Cons. (1995-2003)
21) Ms. L.C. Broten, Liberal (2003-2013)
Political geography
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| 2011 poll map |
The 2011 provincial election saw Broten win the riding over
her the Tories by 22 points. She won in nearly every part of the riding, losing
only 15 polls to the Tories. The Tories did win a small cluster of polls in the
Kingsway neighbourhood and another cluster in the Queensway area. The best the
NDP could do is tie in three polls with 15% of the vote. Despite the NDP’s
history in the riding, the demographics have changed so much that they are no
longer much of a factor. The 2011 federal election is a better indicator of the
riding’s true cleavages, as the Liberals and Tories were much closer, with MP
Bernard Trottier defeating Ignatieff by just 5 points. The NDP did will as
well, winning 20% of the vote. In the federal election, the Liberals and NDP
won the polls along the lakefront, in Mimico and in New Toronto. The Liberals
were also quite strong in the cluster of apartments in Islington Village. The
Tories dominated much of the rest of the riding, doing particularly well in The
Kingsway and in the condominiums along Humber Bay. The Kingsway, north of Bloor
has been historically the most Tory friendly neighbourhood in the riding.
Candidates
The race in Etobicoke-Lakeshore is a 2 horse race between
two sitting Toronto city councillors. The Liberals are running local councillor
Peter Milczyn, who is the son of Polish immigrants. Despite his Liberal
affiliation, Milczyn was a supporter of right wing mayor Rob Ford on city
council. His main opponent is Tory candidate Doug Holyday, another city
councillor Deputy Mayor of Toronto. Holyday is also a Rob Ford supporter, but
unlike Milczyn, does not represent the area on city council. Instead, he
represents part of the neighbouring Etobicoke Centre ward. Not to be undone,
the NDP has a “star” candidate of their own, in Malaysian immigrant Pak-Cheong
“P.C.” Choo, a former School Trustee on the Etobicoke Board of Education. The
Greens are running their 2011 candidate Angela Salewsky once again. In
Etobicoke, where mayor Rob Ford is still somewhat popular, the fact that two of
his allies are running, and both have a chance to win is not a surprise. As
mentioned, the area has become much more right wing over the last couple of decades,
and what was once an NDP-friendly riding is now an afterthought for the party.
London West
Take a ride on the 401 west for a few hours, and hit our
next by-election riding, London West. The riding takes in the western third of
the city of London. The riding takes in the western suburban part of the city,
but also includes the more urban South London area. Federally, the riding has
gone back and forth between the Liberals and Conservatives since its creation
in 1968. It has been held Tory Ed Holder since 2008, and before that was held
by Liberal Sue Barnes from 1993 to 2008. Provincially the riding is also a
swing seat. Since its creation in 1999, it has been represented by Tory Bob
Wood (1999-2003) and then Liberal Chris Bentley (2003-2013). Before the 1999
redistribution that made provincial riding boundaries line up with federal
riding boundaries, London was divided between North and South (and Central) as
opposed to the federal division between West, North Centre and Fanshawe
(eastern London). However, much of London West was created out of the previous
London South riding, and Bob Wood represented both ridings while in office.
MPPs:
1) Jn. Carling, Cons. (1867-1872)
2)
W.R. Meredith, Cons. (1872-1894)
3) T.S. Hobbs, Liberal (1894-1898)
4)
F.B. Leys, Liberal (1898-1902)
5) Adam Beck, Cons. (1902-1919)
6) H.A. Stevenson, Labour (1919-1923)
7) Adam Beck, Cons. (1923-1926) 2nd time
8) J.C. Wilson, Cons. (1926-1929)
9)
J.P. Moore, Cons. (1929-1934)
10) A.S. Duncan, Liberal (1934-1943)
11) W.G. Webster, Prog. Cons. (1943-1948)
12) C.C. Calder, Liberal (1948-1951)
13) J.R. Robarts, Prog. Cons. (1951-1955)
14) G.E. Jackson, Prog. Cons. (1955-1959)
15)
J.H. White, Prog. Cons. (1959-1975)
16) J.P. Ferris, Liberal (1975-1977)
17) G.W. Walker, Prog. Cons. (1977-1985)
18) Mrs. E.J. Smith, Liberal (1985-1990)
19) David Winninger, NDP (1990-1995)
20) Rbt. Wood, Prog. Cons. (1995-2003)
21) C. Bentley, Liberal (2003-2013)
Political geography
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| 2011 poll map |
Outgoing MPP Chris Bentley won this seat in 2011 by 16
points, which ensured that he would win most polls in the riding. Despite
finishing 2nd, the Tories actually won fewer polls than the NDP.
This is because the more urban part of the riding in the south end of London is
an NDP-Liberal area, whereas the rest of the riding is a dead zone for the NDP,
where the Tories come up 2nd in most polls. The Tories did win a
cluster of polls surrounding the London Hunt & Country Club. This was also
their strongest area in the 2011 federal election, where they won almost all
the suburban polls in the riding. While the Liberals won most of the polls in
the suburban part of the riding in the 2011 provincial election, their
strongest area was in the more urban part of the riding, in South London. The
NDP won a splattering of polls, including a cluster in South London, along the
riding’s boundary with London-Fanshawe, a seat the NDP won. In the 2011 federal
election, a similar situation occurred where the NDP won more polls than the
Liberals, despite the Liberals finishing ahead of the NDP, in 2nd. The Liberals finished 2nd across
the riding, but the NDP won the urban areas while the Tories won the suburban
areas of the riding. The Liberals only won a cluster of polls in South London.
Candidates
The race in London West has developed into a two-candidate
race between the Tories and the NDP. The Liberals were supposed to contend here
with their star candidate in Ken Coran, President of the Ontario Secondary
School Teachers Federation. However, the fact that Coran was out in the
Kitchener-Waterloo by-election last year campaigning against the Liberals has
put much controversy on his campaign, and it has hurt him badly, pushing him to
third place. And the teachers have a place to go in the NDP candidate, Thames
Valley District School Board trustee (noticing a trend here?) Peggy Sattler.
The Tories are running their 2011 candidate, London lawyer
Ali Chahbar. The Greens are running their 2007 and 2011 candidate, Gary Brown.
There is also one other candidate of note, Al Gretzky of the Freedom Party. He
is the uncle of Wayne Gretzky, and was also the federal Conservative candidate
in this riding in 2006. His name recognition might siphon enough votes off of
Chahbar to put the NDP ahead, and might vault Gretzky into fourth place, ahead
of the Greens. And, he is running a very strong campaign apparently, and
probably makes up almost all of the 5% of “Other” in the in Forum Research
poll. The Tories have a lot of history in the riding though, and will likely
win the seat. The NDP has little history in the riding, and while are strong in
the urban part of the riding, are an afterthought in the western suburbs.
Windsor-Tecumseh
The fifth and final by-election is taking place in the
riding of Windsor-Tecumeh. If the Forum Research poll is to be believed, this
will be the least exciting race of the five by-elections, as the NDP is
expected to easily win the seat. The riding, which takes in the east half of
Windsor and the Town of Tecumseh is a safe NDP seat federally as well. The
riding begins in the Windsor community of Walkerville in the west, and runs
east until the community of St. Clair Beach in Tecumseh. The riding is mostly
urban, except for the southern part of Tecumseh, which is rural. Federally, the
seat has voted for MP Joe Comartin since 2000, and has gone between the
Liberals and NDP in the past before that. Since the provincial riding was
created in 1999, it has voted for Liberal Dwight Duncan in every election.
However, one of its predecessor ridings, Windsor-Riverside was a safe NDP seat,
going NDP every election from 1967 to 1999. However, Dwight Duncan was redistricted
in from Windsor-Walkerville, a seat he had held since 1995. He defeated Wayne
Lessard, the MPP for Windsor-Riverside in the 1999 election. However,
Windsor-Riverside represented more of Windsor-Tecumseh, so for the list of
MPPs, I will follow it.
MPPs:
1) Solomon Wigle, Cons. (1867-1871)
2) Albert Prince, Liberal (1871-1875)
3) J.C. Patterson, Cons. (1875-1878)
4)
Solomon White, Cons. (1878-1886)
5) J.-B.-N.-G. Pacaud, Liberal (1886-1890)
6) Solomon White, Cons. (1890-1894) 2nd time
7) W.J. McKee, Liberal (1894-1902)
8) J.O. Reaume, Liberal (1902-1914)
9)
J.C. Tolmie, Liberal (1914-1923)
10) F.W. Wilson, Cons. (1923-1934)
11) J.H. Clark, Liberal (1934-1943)
12) Geo. Bennett, CCF (1943-1945)
13) Wm. Griesinger, Prog. Cons. (1945-1959)
14) M.L. Belanger, Liberal (1959-1964)
15) I.W. Thrasher, Prog. Cons. (1964-1967)
16) F.A. Burr, NDP (1967-1977)
17) D. Cook, NDP (1977-1997)
18)
Wayne Lessard, NDP (1997-1999)
19) Dwight Duncan, Liberal (1999-2013)
Political geography
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| 2011 poll map |
The NDP has been unable to defeat the popular Dwight Duncan
in this traditional NDP seat since winning it first in 1999. The NDP’s 10 point
loss in 2011 is actually the closest they have been to unseating him. The 2011
race showed a Liberal vs. NDP divide in the riding. The neighbourhood of East
Windsor went heavily NDP, while Walkerville was more of a mix. Riverside and
Tecumseh on the other hand went for the Liberals. This divide is the opposite
of what one would expect, considering the former riding of Windsor-Riverside
was NDP, and the former riding of Windsor-Walkerville was Duncan’s riding. The
Conservatives were pretty much irrelevant in the 2011 provincial race, but they
did win one of the rural polls, in the far south of the riding, south of the
community of Maidstone. Federally, the most recent election saw the Liberals as
the irrelevant party. The NDP swept the riding, losing only a handful of polls
to the Tories, mostly along the waterfront, in the community of St. Clair
Beach, newer subdivisions in the east end of Windsor, and a few rural polls in
Tecumseh. The NDP’s best areas were again in East Windsor. Going back in time,
the division in the riding has usually been between NDP leaning East Windsor
and the Conservative or Liberal outlying areas, while Riverside and Walkerville
swing back and forth.
Candidates
The man to beat in this race is the NDP candidate, Windsor
city councillor Percy Hatfield, who represents Windsor’s Ward 7 on city
council. This ward is in the far eastern end of the city, and includes the
neighbourhoods of East Riverside and Forest Glade. This ward isn’t the most NDP
friendly in the city, which means that a councillor from the area is sure to
help take personal votes with him. For the record, Dwight Duncan won the ward
in 2011, but it has gone NDP federally since 2004. If the riding turns into its
federal counterpart in terms of how it votes, than we can expect the Tories to
come in second, and that is precisely what polls show. The Tories are running
automotive consultant Robert de Verteuil. One wouldn’t expect the Tories to run
anyone on the labour side of things, but how will a consultant play in a strong
union riding? The Liberals are running Jeewin Gill, a husband of a CAW union
member, at least. Gill himself is a businessman. The Greens are running Adam Wright, a student at the University
of Windsor.
Conclusion
All bets are off as I expect a wild by-election night.
Things are looking so bad for the Liberals, that a “win” for them would be
losing just one seat. A loss for the Liberals would be losing anything more
than 2 seats. The Tories entered the by-election campaign with low
expectations, but there are now high expectations for the party. Going empty
handed would be a big loss for the party. A win would have them netting at
least two seats, but a true win would have them win three. And for the NDP, a
win would be to pick up more than one seat. A loss would be going empty handed,
or even just scraping by in Windsor-Tecumseh.
Polls close at 9PM. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter as
I comment on the results.
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