British Columbia provincial election "swing-o-metre"

British Columbians head to the polls next month (May 14) to elect a new government. In the past, I have made provincial election predictions, but unfortunately due to my new position at Probit Inc. I will be holding off on making predictions, due to possible conflict of interest purposes. However, I will be making various geography related posts in having to do with the upcoming election, including projections based solely on published polls, without factoring in any hearsay like I have done in the past.

Today, I take a look at the B.C. “swing-o-metre”, a simple measurement tool that shows how much swing is needed for the Liberals or the NDP (B.Cs two main parties) to win a seat. A swing is a calculation that is the average change between the Liberals and the NDP. For example, the most recent Ipsos-Reid poll shows the NDP at 48% and the Liberals at 29%. For the NDP, that would be an increase of 6% from their showing in the last election in 2009. For the Liberals, that would be a decrease of 17%. If you average those two numbers you get about 11.5%, which would be the swing from the Liberals to the NDP.

The chart on the left shows the swing needed for either party to win each seat from the result they got in the last election. For example, for the Liberals to win the riding of Surrey-Green Timbers, they would need a 24% swing from the NDP. On the other extreme is the riding of West Vancouver-Capilano which would require a 26% swing from the Liberals to the NDP in order for the NDP to take the riding. This swing-o-metre works because all but one seat in the legislature was won by either party in 2009. One riding, Delta South was won by an independent, however I kept that riding on the chart to show how much the NDP would need in order to get ahead of the Liberals there (but not necessarily win).

In the 2009 election, the conservative leaning BC Liberals, lead by then Premier Gordon Campbell won a majority of the province's 85 ridings by winning 48 seats to the N.D.P.'s 35. (As mentioned, 1 seat was won by an Independent). Since then, Campbell's government became very unpopular, and he resigned. He was replaced by Christy Clark, who as of yet has been unable to rescue the party. During her reign, the province has seen the rise of the even more right wing Conservative Party, which had been a fringe party. It is now lead by former MP John Cummins. While the new Conservatives may not win any seats, they are polling in the low teens, and that vote is coming straight from the Liberals. However, even if the Liberals and the Conservatives were a united force, they still wouldn't match the polling the NDP is at. The NDP is at historic highs in the polls, led by popular leader Adrian Dix. Most polls show the NDP in the mid-40s, and the Liberals in the high 20s. There is also the BC Green Party, which is polling around the level of the Conservatives.

The most recent polls, from last week show a 7-12% swing from the Liberals to the NDP from the last election. According to the swing-o-metre, this would give the NDP 55-65 seats, a strong majority. The swing-o-metre also shows that the NDP needs only a swing of 1.93% to get a majority of the seats (43). This swing would give them the ridings of Maple Ridge-Mission, Cariboo-Chilcotin, Saanich North and the Islands, Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Kamloops-North Thompson, Burnaby North, Burnaby-Lougheed and Vancouver-Fraserview. To get to those 55 seats, the NDP would also win Vernon-Monashee, Surrey-Tynehead, Vancouver-Point Grey (Premier Clark's riding), North Vancouver-Lonsdale, Chilliwack, Port Moody-Coquitlam (a riding they hold now, thanks to a by-election win last Spring), Penticton, Prince George-Valemount and Parksville-Qualicum (securing a sweep of Vancouver Island). Of course, this only assumes a province-wide uniform swing, which we know wont actually happen. But it's a rough guide to see what riding's are in play. 

Swing-o-metre map. The darker the riding, the larger the swing necessary for the opposing party to win.

 

Kent by-election in New Brunswick

A provincial by-election is currently being held in the riding of Kent, New Brunswick, today. (I would have liked to have done a more thorough analysis of the race, but I was pre-empted by the federal Liberal leadership race map. But anyways, I will lay down the need-to-know)

location

The riding is a rural one, located in Eastern New Brunswick. Its largest community is Bouctouche, a town of 2400 people. The riding is home to three linguistic communities. 55% of the population are Francophone,  one third are English, while 10% of the riding speaks the local Native language, Mi’kmaq (Micmac). The riding extends from the Northumberland Strait in the east into the interior of the province, and consists of two valleys, the Bouctouche River valley in the south, and the Richibucto River valley in the north. The former is home to the French part of the riding, and the latter is Anglophone and is also home to the main Mi’kmaq reserve in the riding, the Elsipogtog First Nation.

The riding was vacated when former Liberal Premier Shawn Graham resigned on March 13. The riding has been in the Graham family since 1967, as his father, Alan served before him. Indeed, the area is a Liberal stronghold, and the riding has voted Liberal in every election since 1917 except for 1971 when one of its then 3 MLAs that got elected was a Tory:

MLAs  since 1917
3 members
P.J. Melanson, Liberal (1917-1925)
A.J. Bordage, Liberal (1917-1944)
A.A. Dysart, Liberal (1917-1940)
R.G. Richard, Liberal (1925-1930)
F.G. Richard, Liberal (1930-1939)
Isaie Melanson, Liberal (1939-1956)
J.K. McKee, Liberal (1940-1952)
Armand Richard, Liberal (1944-1952)
H.A. Dysart, Liberal (1952-1964)
L.J. Robichaud, Liberal (1952-1971)
A.F. Richard, Liberal (1956-1974)
Camille Bordage, Liberal (1964-1967)
Omer Leger, Prog. Cons. (1971-1974)
---
1 member after 1974
A.R. Graham, Liberal (1967-1998)
S.M. Graham, Liberal (1998-2013)

Poll map, 2010 provincial election

Running for the Liberals this time is their current leader, Brian Gallant, a half-Acadian, half-Dutch New Brunswicker. The Tories are running Jimmy Bourque, a former political staffer who does not live in the riding. The NDP is running Susan Levi-Peters, a former chief of the Elsipogtog First Nation, and the provincial candidate in 2010 and also the federal candidate in 2011.

Interestingly, the Anglophone part of the riding is the more Liberal friendly, as former Premier Graham is an Anglophone from the village of Rexton. The Francophone part of the riding is the more Tory friendly, but in the last provincial election, also went Liberal, but with smaller margins. The Tories won all 5 of their polls in the Bouctouche area. The NDP won 2 polls, both on the Elsipogtog First Nation. More than half of the NDP vote in the riding came from those two polls.

Federally, the riding has seen a similar pattern in recent history. Kent is located in the federal riding of Beausejour, which is also a Liberal riding. The Kent part of the riding was very evenly split in the last election, with the remote interior, and the upper Richibucto Valley going Tory, as well as parts of the Bouctouche area. The Bouctouche Valley actually went Liberal, as well as the lower Richibucto Valley. The Mi’kmaq areas went NDP (both reserves in the riding). Before the 2011 election, the Kent area was much more Liberal friendly, with patterns more closely resembling the provincial patterns.

Polls close at 8pm Atlantic (7 Eastern).

Liberal leadership race - results map

Much to my excitement, the Liberals have released riding by riding results of their leadership race which was released Sunday. As expected, Justin Trudeau won, but he won big- with 80% of the vote. Finishing second was MP Joyce Murray with 10% of the vote. Trudeau won across the county, and only lost 5 ridings- all in BC which Murray won.

Here is the map:

Trudeau did the best on the east coast, especially in Newfoundland, but also in areas with large minority communities. His weakest areas tended to be urban areas friendly to the NDP, where progressive Liberal voters may have been attracted to Joyce Murray. Murray did well in her home province, where she won 5 ridings, including her own. No other candidates won any ridings.

Federal Liberal leadership maps

The Canadian Election Atlas is back from hiatus to take a look at the federal Liberal Party leadership race which will decide a winner today. Admittedly, it has not been a race I have been interested in too much, as since the beginning, the winner has been a foregone conclusion. (If you've been living in a box, that winner is Justin Trudeau). Despite this foregone conclusion, the race has six candidates, and at one point had as many as nine candidates. The last time a Liberal leadership race was a foregone conclusion (not including 2009), there were only two candidates (when Paul Martin beat Sheila Copps in 2003).

Despite the race being a foregone conclusion, the abundance of candidates has meant that there is a race, and the Liberal Party's decision to ditch the traditional delegated conventions and move to a more democratic one member one vote system has made the race at least a little interesting. And it's not just a one member, one vote system either, as the Liberals have expanded the amount of people who can vote in their leadership election by allowing people who “support” the party to vote in it, without needing to get a membership. In total, 127000 people are eligible to vote the Liberal leadership race.

The press has had a field day comparing the Liberal leadership race to the NDP's leadership race. Indeed, the amount of registered voters is similar (the NDP had about 131000 eligible voters). However, the Liberals have surpassed the NDP in terms of actual voters. I won't go into partisan reasons why, but I just thought it was interesting.

Anyways, much like the NDP race, I have made an endorsement map for the Liberal leadership race. It's not nearly as interesting as the NDP race, as there were fewer endorsements made, and most endorsements were for Justin Trudeau. In terms of political endorsements (only counting people who have been democratically elected), Trudeau leads in Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador. 2^nd place candidate Joyce Murray (MP for Vancouver Quadra) leads the endorsement race in her home province of BC, while former MP Martha Hall Findlay (Willowdale) leads in Alberta and New Brunswick. Saskatchewan, which had just two endorsers is a tie between Trudeau and Murray, with one endorsement each. Deborah Coyne is the only other candidate with a political endorsement. Candidates Martin Cauchon and Karen McCrimmon have none.

Endorsement map.
Click to enlarge.

Hopefully the Liberal Party will release provincial results for their leadership race, but might hold out on doing so, like the NDP. If they do, it will be interesting to compare the actual results to the endorsements. In any event, if the endorsement map tells us anything, it is that this race is Trudeau's to lose. If there is a race for second, it will be between Joyce Murray and Martha Hall Findlay, although I personally think Murray has the edge.

Like I did for the NDP leadership race, I have also created a number of “membership” (read: registered voter) maps for the race, showing the registered voter distribution (both in raw numbers and percentage of population), registered voters to MP ratio and votes in 2011 to registered voters ratio:

Province / Territory	Registered voters for leadership race	% of population	Liberal registered voters to MP ratio	2011 Liberal voters to Liberal registered voters
Alberta	9302	0.26	-	13.9
British Columbia	16098	0.37	8049	15.6
Manitoba	4444	0.37	4444	18.3
New Brunswick	6889	0.92	6889	12.8
Newfoundland and Labrador	3149	0.61	787.25	26.1
Northwest Territories	176	0.42	-	16.3
Nova Scotia	7425	0.81	1856.25	17.6
Nunavut	56	0.18	-	40.4
Ontario	59474	0.46	5406.7	23.5
Prince Edward Island	2611	1.86	870.3	12.4
Quebec	14577	0.18	1822.1	36.9
Saskatchewan	2700	0.26	2700	14.3
Yukon	223	0.66	-	23.7
TOTAL	127124	0.4	3832.1	21.9

The first map shows the provinces and territories coloured in my number of registered Liberal voters. Ontario has by far the most amount of voters at 59,474 which accounts for 47% of the Liberal electorate. Interestingly, British Columbia is next with 16,098 followed by Quebec at 14,577. Not surprisingly, Nunavut has the least amount of Liberal leadership voters at 56.

The second map is coloured by the percentage of the population who are eligible to vote for Liberal leader. Prince Edward Island tops this list, as the only province or territory where more than 1% of the population is registered to vote (1.86%). The next highest is New Brunswick at 0.92% followed by Nova Scotia at 0.81%. Quebec and Nunavut are the lowest at just 0.18%. 

The next maps shows the registered Liberal vote to MP ratio. BC tops this list, having just 2 Members of Parliament for it 16000 voters. New Brunswick is next, with just one MP for its 6900 voters. The province with the best ratio is Newfoundland and Labrador which has 4 Members for 3149 registered voters. Alberta, and the three Territories have no Liberal MPs.

The final map shows the ratio of actual Liberal voters (that is people who voted Liberal in the last federal election) to registered Liberal voters. One thing I found from this calculation is how relatively even these numbers are across the provinces and territories. The range goes from 40 in Nunavut to 12 in PEI. This is far more even than we saw in the NDP race, where we saw some large discrepancies, such as in Quebec. 

Ontario Liberal leadership race - delegate map

Ontario Liberals met last weekend to elect delegates who will be sent to Toronto on the weekend of January 25-27 to elect the next Premier of Ontario. Current Premier and Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty announced last October that he would be resigning as Premier following a vote to elect the next leader of the party.

As a rule, I have been avoiding making maps of provincial party leadership races, but I have decided to change that and begin to cover at least the races of provincial governing parties. As the Liberals are currently in power in Ontario, I have decided to map the leadership race.

Liberal Party members got together in all 107 ridings last weekend, and in various campus clubs and women's organizations to elect a slate of delegates to attend the leadership race. Most elected delegates have committed to vote for a particular candidate, but 67 of the 1875 elected delegates are uncommitted. Former Windsor West MPP and Education Minister Sandra Pupatello won the most delegates (510). Don Valley West MPP and another former Education Minister Kathleen Wynne won the second most amount of delegates at 468. The race is widely expected to be between those two, meaning that Ontario will likely see its first female Premier in its history. To boot, if Wynne wins, she will become the first openly gay (the late former Premier of New Brunswick Richard Hatfield was gay, but in the closet) person to lead a province in Canadian history. In third place is former Parkdale—High Park MP and MPP, and yet another former Minister of Education, Gerard Kennedy. He won 259 delegates. In fourth is Mississauga—Erindale MPP and former Transportation Minister Harinder Takhar. He was the biggest surprise finisher in the delegate fight, picking up 244 delegates, despite few endorsements from current or former caucus members. Close behind him in 5^th is another Mississauga MPP (Mississauga South) and former Labour Minister Charles Sousa. He secured 204 delegates. And finally in last place is St. Paul's MPP and former Citizenship and Immigration Minister Eric Hoskins. He won just 105 delegates.

Each of Ontario's 107 ridings will be sending a slate of 16 delegates to the Toronto convention. In addition, a number of Liberal clubs in universities across the province elected delegates, as did a number of Liberal women's clubs. All 6 candidates won at least a plurality of delegates in at least one riding. In fact, last place candidate Hoskins won 2 ridings. Uncommitted delegates won a plurality in two ridings as well (Vaughan and Scarborough—Rouge River). I'm not sure why that happened.

The support that each candidate received across the regions of the province can be attributed to a number of factors. Tribal politics appear to be alive and well in the Liberal Party, as certain ethnic groups have clearly put their support behind certain candidates. Also, it appears that endorsements truly do matter in many cases. Here is an analysis of the support for all six candidates.

Hoskins

Hoskins won just two ridings, and perhaps surprisingly, neither of them is the riding he currently holds in the Ontario Legislature. He lost St. Paul's by just one delegate to Wynne (6-5). He did win an overwhelming majority of delegates in the riding of Haldimand—Norfolk where he ran federally in the 2008 election. He also won the riding of Scarborough—Guildwood where he won the endorsement of its MPP, Magarett Best.

Sousa

Sousa's support was concentrated in the GTA where he won 9 ridings and tied in 4 others. His best riding was his own, Mississauga South where he won 14 of the 16 delegates. He also did well in Davenport, a riding with a high Portuguese population. He also won York South—Weston, another riding with a high Portuguese population. Sousa himself is Portuguese. Outside of his own riding however, he won no other seats in the Peel Region. He did tie with Takhar in Mississauga East—Cooksville, however. Sousa did fairly well in Scarborough (thanks to endorsements by two local MPPs) where he won three seats and in a handful of exurban ridings.

Takhar

Takhar's campaign focused heavily on the South Asian community in Ontario. While he finished fourth in delegates, he finished a strong third in total number of ridings won. This indicates that he support was concentrated heavily in the ridings he did well in. Takhar did the best in his home region of Peel, where he won or tied in all but two ridings. He also did well in the northwest corner of Toronto, which is home to a high immigrant population. What's most surprising about his strength was the wins in suburban Ottawa (Nepean—Carleton and Carleton—Mississippi Mills), Niagara West—Glanbrook, Hamilton—Stoney Creek and in the Grand River Valley region (Guelph, Brant, Kitchener-Waterloo, etc). I have no idea why he did so well there.

Kennedy

Kennedy's strength was a mile wide and an inch deep it seems. While he finished third in delegates, he finished fifth in terms of seats won- just eight, and tied in two others. His support was not really concentrated in any particular region of the province. His best riding was of course, Parkdale—High Park which he represented both federally and provincially in the past. He won 10 delegates there. Some of his other wins can be attributed to high profile endorsements, like the ones in Niagara Falls and Brampton West. The other ridings he won are quite random: Sarnia—Lambton, Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Oxford, Peterborough and Timiskaming—Cochane (plus his two ties, Barrie and Scarborough Centre). Not sure why he won in those seats in particular.

Wynne

Wynne did strongly in two very different areas of the province, Central Toronto and Central Ontario. The former is a very left wing part of the province, perhaps the most left wing part, while the latter is quite the opposite. While it's easy to explain why left leaning Liberals in Toronto would support Wynne, an open lesbian who happens to hail from the region, but it's harder to explain why she won ridings in the bluest part of the province- Central and Central Eastern Ontario. Wynne's home riding of Don Valley West tied for her best riding, with 13 delegates. Interestingly, and oddly- the other riding to give her 13 delegates was Nipissing. She did receive the endorsement of Nipissing's former MPP, Monique Smith. But, I can't quite explain why Wynne won in conservative leaning ridings like Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, Leeds—Grenville, Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington or Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock. Especially considering the fact that Wynne is widely seen as the “left” candidate- at least compared to Pupatello. My only explanation comes down to religion. This region of the province is highly Protestant, and while I'm not sure what relgion (if any) Wynne is, it's clear that with a name like Pupatello, she certainly is not.

Pupatello

Pupatello has built her delegate lead on a coalition of a number of regions across the province. Namely these are the urban north, Ottawa and the far east, and her home region of Southwestern Ontario. Usually this wouldn't be enough to lead any race, but in this fractured election, it's just enough, if you couple it with a spattering of random ridings in the middle of the province. From the looks of it, Pupatello's Italian heritage seems to have helped her win ridings with high Italian populations. One big exception is Ontario's most Italian riding, Vaughan which saw half its delegates go uncommitted and only two for Pupatello. Pupatello also did well in highly Catholic, and highly Francophone ridings like Ottawa—Vanier, Glengarry—Prescott—Russell and Timmins—James Bay. I'm not sure if Pupatello is even bilingual, so perhaps this support also comes down to religion. Interestingly, Pupatello's best riding was Thunder Bay—Superior North where she won 14 delegates. She was endorsed by both of Thunder Bay's MPPs. She also did well in the other Thunder Bay riding, Thunder Bay-Atikokan, where she won 12 delegates. Her next best ridings were highly Francophone Glengarry—Prescott—Russell and Essex where she won 13 delegates each. Essex is right next door to her former home riding of Windsor West, where she happened to win 12 delegates.

The Ontario Liberal delegate map raises a lot of questions about how leadership contests work, and how people vote. It really is quite fascinating. Does it raise questions about tribal politics? Does it mean endorsements work? For the most part though, many of the things going on in this map are unexplainable by me. Perhaps I just need to know more about the Liberal Party? Anyways, their leadership contest is a week and a half away; and because it is a delegated convention, there will be no way to map the different rounds, so this will have to suffice for now. For more details about the delegate breakdown, click here.

Newfoundland and Labrador - an alternate proposal

The commission's report boundaries

Five provincial boundary commissions have submitted their proposed federal riding boundaries that will sent to the House of Commons for review. The deadline for submissions was December 21, so one can assume that the other five boundary commissions asked for a two month extension.

This next step in the federal riding boundary redistribution process means a whole new set of maps of the provinces from the original proposals we saw earlier in the year. These new maps came as a result of a series of public consultations held across the country. These next set of maps will not be the final boundaries, but they will be pretty close to finalized.

Alberta, Manitoba, Prince Edward Island (which saw no changes), Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador's boundary commissions all released their reports, while the remaining provinces we will not see for at least two months.

Today, I will present an alternate proposal to the Newfoundland and Labrador map. It will be one that does not guarantee Labrador its own riding.

My alternate proposal. (Inset is St. John's)

The boundary commission did not deviate drastically from their originally proposed map. The public seemed supportive of the new north-south alignment of the three rural Newfoundland ridings, which makes more sense, as it follows transportation links better. The commission only made minor changes such as moving a few villages or neighbouhoods from one riding to another for community of interest reasons. The commission also renamed their “St. John's North” riding to “St. John's East”, as I predicted.

The commission briefly considered the issue of Labrador, currently Canada's least populated riding. Only one submitter (from Ottawa – not me I promise!) proposed doing away with this riding, which is less than one third the size of the average Newfoundland riding and has less people than any of Canada's northern territories. Large, remote ridings, such as Labrador are often exempted from taking on larger territories, and Labrador has been one such exemption. The riding is geographically isolated from the rest of the province by the Strait of Belle Isle, and is for all intents and purposes very much different from the rest of the province. But the fact of the matter is, the area has seen its population stagnate in the last decade, and, as mentioned is the least populated riding in the entire country. There is no reason that Labrador should be more over represented than any of Canada's territories. I feel that the commission should have at least considered a riding which would have consisted of Labrador plus some of Newfoundland.

My proposal is to link Labrador with the northern peninsula of Newfoundland, which is geographically the closest part of the island to Labrador. There is also a link from this region to Labrador via ferry. My proposal is to make Labrador roughly 50% of this riding, so that the area is not over-represented by the Newfoundland portion. This ensures that Labrador will keep its weight in parliament even though the riding will be twice the size. However, due to Labrador's size, a riding even twice the size of it will still be much smaller than the rest of the province (53,000 people compared to 77,000), but at least it would be closer to the average.

To make it to 53,000 (Labrador has 26,500 people), the Labrador riding would have to include all of the Northern Peninsula of Newfoundland plus the Baie Verte Peninsula. If you include all of these areas you get 51,441 people- close enough. I made the eastern boundary of the riding at King's Point to keep the larger community of Springdale out of the riding. I would name this riding Labrador—St. Barbe—Baie Verte.

The remainder of the province gets six ridings, with an average population of 77,000 people. This new Labrador riding would take a significant chunk out of the current Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte riding, meaning that riding would need to expand. My proposal would take a page out of the commission's proposal by linking the left over area (the Humber region) with the St. George's region to its south. However, this would not make a large enough riding. So, my proposal would be to link the west coast of the province (Humber and St. George regions) with the isolated south coast region. The St. George's area and the south coast are already linked together by the riding of Random—Burin—St. George's. The south coast is fairly isolated as it is, and while it may have road links to central Newfoundland (hence why the commission put the area into the central riding) it still has ferry links to the west coast of the province, and the community of Burgeo also has a road link. This riding would have a population of 76,713 and I would name it “Humber—St. George's—Bay d'Espoir”.

The creation of the new Labrador riding has meant that some of the existing Humber—St. Barbe—Baie Verte riding has been lobbed off. This is the area around Springdale. While this region does have better transportation links with the Baie Verte peninsula, it had to be excluded from the Labrador riding so that Labrador would still be more than 50% of that riding. This area, which is located on the west coast of Notre Dame Bay, I would have united with the rest of the Notre Dame Bay shore area which is presently in the riding of Bonavista—Gander--Grand Falls-Windsor. This new riding would consist of much of the same areas as this riding, however the addition of the Springdale area would make it too over-populated. This is why removed the Bonavista Bay area. I made the eastern boundary of the riding between Gambo and Glovertown. This was done for population reasons, but it also makes for a good natural boundary as it separates the communities on the western shore of Bonavista Bay (which I would keep in the new riding) from the communities along Highway 310. This new riding would have a population of 75,552 and I would call it Gander—Grand Falls-Windsor—Notre Dame.

With the rest of the Bonavista Bay area removed from its current riding of Bonavista—Gander--Grand Falls-Windsor, I had to put the area somewhere. The riding boundary proposal created a new north-south aligned riding which united the Burin Peninsula, the Bonavista Bay area, the Bonavista Peninsula and the Trinity Bay area in one riding. My proposal would call for a similar riding. It would also include the Burin and Bonavista Peninsulas, as well as most of the Bonavista Bay area. The riding would also extend into the Avalon Peninsula and would contain most of the Bay de Verde peninsula as well. The boundary commission's proposed boundary in the area goes as far as Salmon Cove on Conception Bay, but due to population reasons, I had to go further down the peninsula and stop before Spaniard's Bay. This would add a significant population centre (Carbonear) to my riding which is why my name for the riding (Bonavista—Burin—Bay de Verde) would be different than the commissions proposed name of “Bonavista—Burin—Trinity”. My proposal contains more of the Bay de Verde peninsula, and more of an area not on Trinity Bay, but on Conception Bay. The population of this riding would be 78,132,

This leaves us with an area of the province very similar to area proposed by the commission. However, my proposal of what to do with the remaining three ridings is somewhat different. I started with the riding of St. John's South—Mount Pearl which has a population of 83,000- which is a bit too big for quotient of 77,000. My proposal would be to remove the portions of the riding in the downtown area, and give those areas to St. John's East. My proposed boundary, which encircles the downtown core, is somewhat more natural than the present boundary along Gower St. These changes would bring down the size of the riding to 77,011- a perfect fit.

Adding the Downtown area to St. John's East would dramatically increase the size of that riding, even more than it's already huge size of 101,000. Presently, the western boundary of the riding splits up the municipalit of Conception Bay South. The commission's proposal and it's current report split up the City of Paradise. All of these boundaries seem rather arbitrary (the report isolates two neighbourhoods in Paradise from the rest of the city), and my proposal would be to remove all of CBS and all of Paradise from the riding. This makes the Paradise city limits the western boundary of the riding, which makes more sense. And it makes for a good riding size at 77,620.

This leaves us with one last riding, Avalon, which is very similar to the commission's report for the riding. The commission's version of the riding would be slightly larger (81,540) than my proposed version (77,532) as it excludes the Carbonear area, the Bay Bulls area and the Long Harbour area.

That concludes my proposal. If you want to read the commission's report, it can be found here.

Federal by-elections (Part 3: Calgary Centre)

Calgary Centre is located in central Calgary, Alberta's largest city. It includes the city's central core, as well as some surrounding inner-suburban areas. Its bounded on the north by the Bow River and Bow Trail, on the west by Sacree Trail, on the south by Glenmore Trail and on the east by the CPR railway.

Demographics:

The riding is 79% White, with Chinese being the largest visible minority at 6%. 3% of the population is Black and Aboriginals make up 2% of the population. 73% of the riding has English as their mother tongue, 4% have Chinese as their mother tongue, while just 2% have their native language as French. 33% of the riding is Protestant and 25% is Catholic. Islam is the largest non Christian religion in the riding, with 3% of residents being Muslim. 30% of residents have no religion at all.. In 2005, the median income of the riding was $30,729, making it the 10th richest riding in Alberta.

History

The riding was created in 1968, and until the most recent redistribution ten years ago, consisted of parts of central Calgary on both sides of the Bow River. While the riding has always elected right of centre candidates since its creation, the riding- when it crossed the Bow River united the two most traditionally progressive parts of the city together. Redistribution in 2004 split these two areas apart by moving Calgary Centre south of the Bow River, and creating the new riding of Calgary Centre-North north of the Bow. Between 1953 and 1968, most of what is today Calgary Centre was in the riding of Calgary South. Between 1917 and 1954, the area was divided between various incarnations of Calgary West and Calgary East. And, from 1904 to 1917, the area made up a very small section of a large riding known as “Calgary” that consisted of more than half of Southern Alberta, and-when it was created even part of today's Saskatchewan (back then it was part of the Northwest Territories).

As mentioned, the riding has been dominated by right of centre candidates ever since the area started voting for Members of Parliament. Only in two elections (1940 and 1963) has the area voted for a Liberal. And, in only two elections aas the area voted for a left wing candidate, electing Labour candidates in 1921, and in 1926 (only in Calgary East). The area is a dead zone for the NDP at present. The Liberals do have some strength in the riding on the provincial level, as the downtown riding of Calgary-Buffalo is currently held by the provincial Liberals. The riding is known for electing some moderate conservatives. Outgoing MP Lee Richardson being one example. In 2000, former Prime Minister Joe Clark, a red Tory won this seat in a close race against the more conservative Canadian Alliance candidate.

List of MPs:

Calgary

* M.S. McCarthy, Cons. (1904-1911)
* R.B. Bennett, Cons. (1911-1917)

East Calgary / Calgary East (1917-1953)

* D.L. Redman, Unionist (1917-1921)
* Wm. Irvine, Labour (1921-1925)
* A.T. Davis, Cons. (1925-1926)
* H.B. Adshead, Labour (1926-1930)
* G.D. Stanley, Cons. (1930-1935)
* J.C. Landeryou, Soc. Credit (1935-1940)
* G.H. Ross, Liberal (1940-1945)
* D.S. Harkness, Prog. Cons. (1945-1954)

Calgary West (1917-1953)

* T.M. Tweedie, Unionist (1917-1921)
* J.T. Shaw, Labour (1921-1925)
* R.B. Bennett, Cons. (1925-1939) 2^nd time
* D.G.L. Cunnington, Cons. (1939-1940)
* M.J. Edwards, Liberal (1940-1945)
* A.L. Smith, Prog. Cons. (1945-1951)
* C.O. Nickle, Prog. Cons. (1951-1954)

Calgary South (1953-1968)

* C.O. Nickle, Prog. Cons. (1954-1957) contd.  
* A.R. Smith, Prog. Cons. (1957-1963)
* H.W. Hays, Liberal (1963-1965)
* H.R. Ballard, Prog. Cons. (1965-1968)

Calgary Centre (1968-present)

* D.S. Harkness, Prog. Cons. (1968-1972) 2^nd time representing area 
* Harvie Andre, Prog. Cons. (1972-1993)
* J. Silye, Reform (1993-1997)
* E.C. Lowther, Reform (1997-2000)
* C.J. Clark, Prog. Cons. (2000-2004)
* Lee Richardson, Cons. (2004-2012)

Poll maps

2004 election

 

With Joe Clark retiring from politics, Calgary Centre (called Calgary South Centre in 2004) would become an open seat. The newly created Conservative Party would be the clear front runners to win the riding, and they would recruit former MP Lee Richardson to be their candidate. His main challenger would be the Liberal candidate, lawyer Julia Turnbull. Richardson would end up winning the seat by nearly 11,000 votes- which would end up being the closest race for him in this seat. Richardson would win most of the polls in the riding, doing the best in the more suburban southern and western fringes of the riding. He would do especially well in neighbourhoods such as Glendale, Glanmorgan, Bel-Aire and Windsor Park. The more urban central part of the city was worse for Richardson, and was the only part of the riding where the Liberals won any polls. In fact, the Liberals won quite a few polls in the western half of the Beltline, they would win the Cliff Bungalow neighbourhood, win quite a few polls in Bankview, and do very well in Chinatown. The best Tory poll came in poll 211, which is located in Bel-Aire, on the south side of the riding. The poll includes the Calgary Country Club, and is very wealthy. Richardson won 75% of the votes there. The best poll for the Liberals was poll 90, in Chinatown. The Liberals won 76% of the vote in the poll, which would be the only poll where they even broke 50%.

2006 election

In 2006, Richardson's main sacrificial lamb opponent was Liberal architect Heesung Kim. Richardson defeated Kim by nearly 20,000 votes. Richardson won all but two of the riding's polls, and did his best in much of the same parts of the riding. His best neighbourhoods would be Glendale, Upper Mount Royal, Bel-Aire and Mayfair. His worst neighbourhoods were in places like Lower Mount Royal and Cliff Bungalow, but he still won all the polls in those neighbourhoods. The Liberals won just two polls, one in Chinatown (once again, their best poll – poll 90) and the other one was in the eastern end of the Beltline. Poll 211 in Bel-Aire would once again be the best Tory poll, where Richardson won 82% of the vote. The Liberals would win 51% in their best poll in Chinatown.

2008 election

2008 was a rematch between Richardson and Kim, but also with a strong showing by Green candidate Natalie Odd. Richardson's lead would be cut down to 17,000 votes over Kim. Odd would be 600 votes behind Kim. Richardson's strength came from the same neighbourhoods he did well in back in 2006. He won all but four polls in the riding. The Greens would win three polls, two in Cliff Bungalow and one in the western end of the Beltline. The Liberals won just one poll, also in the Beltline. The top poll for the Tories would continue to be poll 211 in Bel-Aire, for the third election in a row. Richardson took a small hit in that poll, dropping to 80%. The top Liberal poll (poll 106) was not even the one they won. They would win 33% of the vote in 106, and would lost the poll by two votes. Their third best poll, 103 was the one they won- with less than 30% of the vote, thanks to a four way split. Both polls are in the Beltline district. The best Green poll would be 61, where they won 37% of the vote. This poll was also in the Beltline, west of 14 St at 14 Ave.

2011 election

In 2011, Richardson would return to his 20,000 vote margin, defeating the Liberal candidate Jennifer Pollock. The NDP also did their best in the riding since 1988 by winning 15% of the vote, and losing by 21,000 votes. Richardson once again dominated the riding, winning all but two polls. Those two polls actually going to the NDP. Richardson's strongest neighbourhoods would remain mostly the same, as he would do especially well in Rosscarrock, Glendale, Glanbrook, Glanmorgan, Eau Claire, Upper Mount Royal, Rideau Park, Elbow Park, Britannia, Bel-Aire, Mayfair and Meadowlark Park. The two NDP polls would both be in the Beltline neighbourhood in the central city. The Beltline, Cliff Bungalow, Lower Mount Royal and Bankview would be the worst neighbourhoods for Richardson. The best poll for the Conservatives would be poll 404 this time. This poll consists of a very upscale retirement residence in Altadore known as “Manor Village of Garrison Woods”. Richardson won 81% of the vote there. The Liberals didn't win any polls, but their best poll was 151 in Bankview where they won 28% of the vote, losing to the Tories by 4 votes. The strongest NDP poll was 103 in the Beltline, consisting of two city blocks surrounding the Beaulieu Gardens. The poll consists of a series of Apartment Buildings, as well as Lougheed House. The NDP won the poll with 38% of the vote.

The by-election

Bonus map: 2000 poll winners within current riding boundary

Richardson resigned back in May to take a position with the Redford government. If you just take a look at the 2011 election results, then the riding should be considered the safest of the three by-elections today. However, polls indicate that the riding will be the closest. The Liberals, in particular are really making this race one to watch. The Conservative candidate is journalist Joan Crockatt. Running for the Liberals is writer Harvey Locke, who also ran for the provincial Liberals in 1989. The Greens are also running a journalist/writer in Chris Turner. The NDP is running community activist Dan Meades.

The Conservatives may have shot themselves in the foot here by nominating Crockatt, who is seen on the right of the party. Anywhere else in Alberta, or even Calgary, she would be a good fit, but this riding is known as a “Red Tory” seat. This has given the Liberals the boost they need to make the race competitive. The most recent Forum Research poll showed Crockatt ahead by just 2% - 32%-30% over Locke. The Greens also polled quite well, with Turner 23%. Meades would win 12% according to that poll, a disappointing result for the NDP. However, since that poll was taken, the Liberals have done some of their own foot shooting, with some anti-Alberta comments coming out of my former MP, David McGuinty. Some more anti-Alberta comments made by potential Liberal leader Justin Trudeau that he made a couple of years ago have also come out and have fueled anti-Liberal sentiment in the riding, and have evoked ghosts of the past (especially in the case of the Trudeau clan). A more recent poll conducted by Return On Insight conducted while the scandal ocurred shows Crockatt with a 5 point lead over Locke (37-32). Turner dropped to 17%, and Meades was still at 12%. This showed some late movement from the Greens to the Liberals, but also from the Liberals to Tories. It remains to be seen whether the Greens might end up benefiting from the negative comments, as progressive voters in the city search for a candidate to rally behind. And, there has been a concerted effort to do so. The last close election in the riding was back in 2000 when Joe Clark defeated the Canadian Alliance. Perhaps we're looking at a similar race this time.

Polls close in Calgary Centre at 7:30 Mountain Time (9:30 Eastern). Polls close in Durham at the same time (9:30 Eastern), while polls close in Victoria at 7:00 Pacific (10:00 Eastern). Follow me on Twitter after 10pm tomorrow night to hear my reaction as polls close.