Saskatchewan 2011 provincial election final prediction

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Saskatchewan goes to the polls today, and everything seems to be pointing to a Saskatchewan Party landslide victory. The only question remains- how many seats (if any!!) will the NDP win, and where. It will be a tricky election to predict, because we are charting in uncharted territory for the province. No party has won more than 60% of the popular vote in an election, and all the polls indicate that will happen.

There were two polls released in the last few days. Praxis' last poll has the Sask Party at 67%, and the NDP at just 27%, while Forum Research showed different numbers, giving the Sask Party 62% and the NDP 34%. Forum Research was the more recent poll, and had a higher sample size, so I am looking more at their numbers. Plus, the poll showed regional numbers. The Sask Party is polling in the high 50s both in Saskatoon and Regina. I have factored that into most of my predictions. This is actually a higher swing than in the rural areas, which is bad news for the NDP, as those urban areas are where their seats are at. The swing in Regina in particular is bad news for the NDP, because it would be 16% more for the Sask Party. They could be swept off the map in the city.

Seat by seat predictions:

Riding	SP	NDP	Green	Other	Projected winner
Arm River-Watrous	74	23	3	-	Greg Brkich
Athabasca	45	52	3	-	Buckley Belanger
Batoche	71	26	3	-	Delbert Kirsch
Biggar	69	25	4	2	Randy Weeks
Cannington	85	9	5	1	Dan D'Autremont
Canora-Pelly	76	21	3	-	Ken Krawetz
Carrot River Valley	73	24	3	-	Fred Bradshaw
Cumberland	45	45	4	-	Doyle Vermette
Cut Knife-Turtleford	74	23	3	-	Larry Doke
Cypress Hills	83	13	4	-	Wayne Elhard
Estevan	84	13	3	-	Doreen Eagles
Humboldt	75	22	3	-	Donna Harpauer
Indian Head-Milestone	73	23	4	-	Don McMorris
Kelvington-Wadena	80	16	4	-	June Draude
Kindersley	78	17	5	-	Bill Boyd
Last Mountain-Touchwood	72	23	4	1	Glen Hart
Lloydminster	71	25	4	-	Ted McMillan
Martensville	84	12	4	-	Nancy Heppner
Meadow Lake	65	32	3	-	Jeremy Harrison
Melfort	76	21	3	-	Kevin Phillips
Melville-Saltcoats	71	26	3	-	Bob Bjornerud
Moose Jaw North	58	37	4	1	Warren Michelson
Moose Jaw Wakamow	48	45	5	2	Greg Lawrence
Moosomin	84	12	4	-	Don Toth
Prince Albert Carlton	59	38	3	-	Darryl Hickie
Prince Albert Northcote	50	47	3	-	Victoria Jurgens
Regina Coronation Park	54	43	3	-	Mark Docherty
Regina Dewdney	62	27	3	8	Gene Makowsky
Regina Douglas Park	53	43	4	-	Russ Marchuk
Regina Elphinstone-Centre	45	50	5	-	Warren McCall
Regina Lakeview	54	42	4	-	Bob Hawkins
Regina Northeast	62	34	4	-	Kevin Doherty
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	65	32	3	0	Laura Ross
Regina Rosemont	57	38	5	-	Tony Fiacco
Regina South	67	30	3	-	Bill Hutchinson
Regina Walsh Acres	57	39	4	-	Warren Steinley
Regina Wascana Plains	75	21	3	1	Christine Tell
Rosetown-Elrose	80	17	3	-	Jim Reiter
Rosthern-Shelbrook	66	30	4	-	Scott Moe
Saskatchewan Rivers	70	26	4	-	Nadine Wilson
Saskatoon Centre	46	50	4	-	David Forbes
Saskatoon Eastview	58	39	3	-	Corey Tochor
Saskatoon Fairview	50	47	3	-	Jennifer Campeau
Saskatoon Greystone	58	26	3	13	Rob Norris
Saskatoon Massey Place	52	45	3	-	Fawad Muzaffar
Saskatoon Meewasin	58	34	5	3	Roger Parent
Saskatoon Northwest	70	25	4	1	Gordon Wyant
Saskatoon Nutana	45	46	5	4	Cathy Sproule
Saskatoon Riversdale	48	49	3	-	Danielle Chartier
Saskatoon Silver Springs	78	16	3	3	Ken Cheveldayoff
Saskatoon Southeast	75	20	3	4	Don Morgan
Saskatoon Sutherland	60	32	4	4	Paul Merriman
Swift Current	82	14	4	-	Brad Wall
The Battlefords	51	38	3	8	Herb Cox
Thunder Creek	78	18	3	-	Lyle Stewart
Weyburn-Big Muddy	75	21	4	-	Dustin Duncan
Wood River	77	19	4	-	Yogi Huyghebaert
Yorkton	67	29	4	-	Greg Ottenbreit

Calling the toss ups

Cumberland

This northern Saskatchewan riding has voted for the NDP and its predecessor, the CCF in every election since 1952. And, the NDP has won this riding with over 60% of the vote in every race since 1982. However, there was a by-election in this seat in 2008, where the NDP won by just 164 votes! That narrow by-election victory is making this race seem difficult to call for the moment. Have things changed in this riding? Well, not necessarily. The federal NDP would have won this seat in the federal election in May, getting 63% of the vote here. My hypothesis is that the by-election in 2008 has a low turnout of Natives in this highly Aboriginal riding. They are probably more likely to vote in general races. That's why I think the NDP will still win this seat.

Moose Jaw Wakamow

The Saskatchewan Party has 1100 votes to make up in this riding- that's the amount they lost by here in 2007. This has to be one of their targets though, as the federal Conservatives won the most votes in this riding in May (although it was close). With Brad Wall's party polling better than Harper though, it's hard to think the NDP will be able to hold on here. Sask Party pick up.

Prince Albert Northcote

Prince Albert Northcote is very similar to Moose Jaw Wakamow. The NDP won the seat by 1200 votes in 2007, and the federal Conservatives won the seat back in May, but narrowly. While, the NDP have held this riding since it was created 20 years ago, it's time for it to lose it. Sask Party pick up.

Regina Elphinstone-Centre

With the Forum Research poll showing a huge swing to the Sask Party in Regina, the NDP could be left with just one seat, and that is this one. And even that one seat will be a close one. This is the strongest NDP seat in Regina. The party won it by 2000 votes in 2007. It was also the federal party's strongest seat in Regina in the federal election in May, where the party got 54% of the vote. I expect the NDP to win this seat, but it will be the only one in the city!

Saskatoon Centre

The NDP have held this seat since 1986. It was the NDP's strongest seat in the 2007 provincial election in Saskatoon. With the upswing in the Sask Party here however, it could be swept up in the landslide. However, we must remember it was won by nearly 2000 votes in 2007, and also the federal party won the riding by 21% in May. NDP hold.

Saskatoon Fairview

The Sask Party lost this seat by 1100 votes in 2007. Just like Saskatoon Centre, this seat has been held by the NDP since 1986. However, it's not as strong of a seat. The federal party won the riding by just 7% of the vote in 2007. It looks like the Saskatchewan Party will have just enough support to pick this seat up.

Saskatoon Nutana

Last prediction, I had this seat as a tie. It appears it will be the only seat I have going from a toss up to the NDP, although it will still be a toss up, really. Nutana was the federal party's best Saskatoon riding, winning the seat by 26%. Provincially it was won by 2200 votes in 2007. You would think it would be a lock, but the question remains how well will the Liberals do here? I think the NDP should be able to keep this seat.

Saskatoon Riversdale

Another riding the NDP has held continuously since 1986. It was also held by former Premier Lorne Calvert until 2009. The party was able to keep the seat in the by-election that year, despite doing as well as they are now in the polls. The federal party won the seat by 12%, which should be enough for the Sask Party to overcome- however, if the NDP was able to keep the seat in the by-election, they should be able to keep it in the general as well.

Riding changes since the last prediction:

With regional polling numbers coming out of Regina, I have now taken Regina Coronation Park, Regina Douglas Park and Regina Walsh Acres out from the NDP, and given them to the Saskatchewan Party. That would mean NDP leader Dwain Lingenfelter would lose his seat of Regina Douglas Park! Additionally, I have taken away Saskatoon Massey Place from the NDP and given it to the Sask Party. The two ties in my last projection have been distributed evenly to the two parties. Prince Albert Northcote I now have going to the Saskatchewan Party, while I now have Saskatoon Nutana going NDP.

Conclusion

The 2011 Saskatchewan provincial election will be one for the history books. We know in all likelihood that the Sask Party will win the highest popular vote in provincial history, but will they be able to beat the seat record? It's unlikely, as that mark was made in 1982 when the Tories won 55 seats in a larger (64 seat) legislature. Perhaps they will force the NDP into the smallest official opposition caucus in provincial history. That will be tough to, as that mark is five seats, set by the Liberals in 1944 (defeated by the CCF) and by the CCF in 1934 (defeated by the Liberals).

Speaking of the Liberals, what will happen to them? Will they be able to break 10% in any seat? The same question can be asked of the Green Party, who unlike the Liberals are running a candidate in every riding. It will be humiliating for the Liberals to finish fourth in popular vote behind the Greens, but that seems to be inevitable at the moment.

Polls close at 8pm CST, or 9 EST.

2011 federal election results by provincial riding in Saskatchewan

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There have been no new polls for the upcoming Saskatchewan provincial election next week, but that won't stop me from showing an interesting map that will be vital to any proper study of the Saskatchewan electoral map. Thanks to Krago, from the rabble.ca forums, I have been able to make a map of the province showing the federal election results transposed to reflect the provincial riding boundaries. He was generous enough once again to send me the raw data.

Before we get into comparing this map to the provincial one, I must make one point about the federal results in Saskatchewan. No province has a worse gerrymander in my opinion of their federal ridings. In the federal election, the Conservatives won 13 seats, the Liberals 1, and the NDP none. Take a look now at the same election, but with provincial riding boundaries. That one Liberal seat was good enough for just 2 provincial seats, and the NDP would have won six times as many, with 12. But it resulted in 0 federal seats. You see, those NDP areas, whether they are in the far north or in Saskatoon and Regina were divied up in such a way that it resulted in the dilution of NDP support, giving them no seats.

The NDP won 32% of the vote in Saskatchewan in the federal election, which is where they are polling at provincially. This doesn't mean those 12 seats they led in the federal election will translate into seats this time. This is because the Tories won 56% of the federal vote in May, but their provincial cousins (the Saskatchewan Party) are polling as high as 10 points more than that. A 10 point gain for the Tories would have meant 5 less theoretical seats for the NDP.  So perhaps, if we look at the federal election alone, the NDP would be poised to win just 7 seats next week. Then there's the matter of those 2 theoretical seats the Liberals won, certainly the provincial Liberals wont win them, the way they are polling (much of that federal vote is personal support for MP Ralph Goodale), and they are only running a candidate in one of them! The NDP presently holds both ridings, but one (Regina Dewdney) is quite marginal. The other won, Regina Doulgas Park was won by the NDP in 2007 by 21%, so they should hold on to it.

If you look at the federal election results, the NDP should be a lock to win the two northern ridings of Athabasca and Cumberland, which they won pretty handily. They should also win Regina Elphinstone-Centre, Saskatoon Nutana, Regina Lakeview, Saskatoon Centre and Saskatoon Riversdale, all seats they won by more than 10% of the vote in the federal election. The other seats they would have won are Regina Rosemont, Regina Coronation Park, Saskatoon Fairview, Saskatoon Massey Place, and Saskatoon Sutherland. The latter was actually won by the Saskatchewan Party in the 2007 election, and is therefore unlikely to go NDP next week. The federal NDP got 44% of the vote there, 2% more than the Conservatives.

The NDP presently holds three small town ridings in the province, all of which the federal party lost. Many, if not all could be lost next week. We should keep our eyes on Prince Albert Northcote, Moose Jaw Wakamow, and The Battlefords. The Conservatives would have won these seats by 5%, 4% and 17% respectively in the federal election. It is my opinion at this point that all of these seats will go to the Saskatchewan Party.

Other seats that the provincial NDP holds but the federal Tories would have won are Saskatoon Meewasin, Saskatoon Eastview, Regina Walsh Acres and Regina Northeast. All but Regina Walsh Acres were marginal races in 2007, and that was only because the Saskatchewan Party candidate backed out of the race. All but Regina Northeast were won by the Tories by less than 5% of the vote in the federal election.

So, much can be learned from this map when it comes to analyzing the upcoming election. It wouldn't be too far fetched to see a similar one next week, just replacing Tory blue with Sask Party green!

Saskatchewan 2011 provincial election prediction (Oct 30)

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Saskatchewan will be going to the polls a week from Monday, and we finally have seen some opinion polls come out of the province. On Friday, both Insightrix and Forum Research published poll numbers for the upcoming provincial election.

Both firms show a landslide victory in the making for the governing right wing Saskatchewan Party. Forum Research has them at an overwhelming 66% of the vote, while Insightrix has them at 60%. The opposition NDP is at 30% according to Forum Research or 33% according to Insightrix. These polls show a gain for the Saskatchewan Party since my last prediction in the summer, while they have the NDP stagnant.

The SP has gained much of their support thanks to the total collapse of the Liberal Party. The once dominant Saskatchewan Liberal Party will be running just 9 candidates in this election. All but two will be running in Saskatoon. It is likely the Liberals will finish behind the Green Party in popular vote, as the Greens will be running a full slate of candidates. Both polls had the Greens at 3%, while the Liberals are either at 3% or 1%. In other words, neither party will be much of a factor.

A strong economy is really putting the wind in the sails for Premier Brad Wall's government. He is clearly heading toward an historic landslide victory. How far can he go? Will his party be able to win a majority of urban seats? He is unlikely to win all the seats in the province due to is polarized urban vs. Rural split. The NDP is also strong in the north.

Many people are looking at the election of 1982 to compare this race with. In that election, the Tories won 54% of the vote, while the NDP won 38%. It resulted in the Tories winning 55 seats to the NDP's 9. The Tories are now the Saskatchewan Party, and are polling much higher than what they had in 1982. The NDP is also polling much lower. This could mean very bad news for the New Democrats. They may however be buoyed by more polarized electoral map that is present day Saskatchewan.

Seat by seat predictions:

I have averaged the two new polls to come up with the current predictions.

Riding	SP	NDP	Green	Other	Projected winner
Arm River-Watrous	73	24	3	-	Greg Brkich
Athabasca	44	52	4	-	Buckley Belanger
Batoche	70	28	2	-	Delbert Kirsch
Biggar	68	26	4	2	Randy Weeks
Cannington	86	12	1	1	Dan D'Autremont
Canora-Pelly	75	23	2	-	Ken Krawetz
Carrot River Valley	73	26	1	-	Fred Bradshaw
Cumberland	45	48	7	-	Doyle Vermette
Cut Knife-Turtleford	74	24	2	-	Larry Doke
Cypress Hills	86	11	3	-	Wayne Elhard
Estevan	83	14	3	-	Doreen Eagles
Humboldt	73	23	4	-	Donna Harpauer
Indian Head-Milestone	77	19	4	-	Don McMorris
Kelvington-Wadena	81	16	3	-	June Draude
Kindersley	77	19	4	-	Bill Boyd
Last Mountain-Touchwood	72	24	3	1	Glen Hart
Lloydminster	71	28	1	-	Ted McMillan
Martensville	85	12	3	-	Nancy Heppner
Meadow Lake	56	43	1	-	Jeremy Harrison
Melfort	76	23	1	-	Kevin Phillips
Melville-Saltcoats	70	28	1	-	Bob Bjornerud
Moose Jaw North	58	39	2	1	Warren Michelson
Moose Jaw Wakamow	48	47	3	2	Greg Lawrence
Moosomin	84	15	1	-	Don Toth
Prince Albert Carlton	58	40	2	-	Darryl Hickie
Prince Albert Northcote	49	49	2	-	Victoria Jurgens or Darcy Furber
Regina Coronation Park	47	50	3	-	Jaime Garcia
Regina Dewdney	50	38	3	9	Gene Makowsky
Regina Douglas Park	46	49	5	-	Dwain Lingenfelter
Regina Elphinstone-Centre	35	59	6	-	Warren McCall
Regina Lakeview	48	42	5	-	Bob Hawkins
Regina Northeast	54	43	3	-	Kevin Doherty
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	61	37	2	0	Laura Ross
Regina Rosemont	49	47	4	-	Tony Fiacco
Regina South	60	36	4	-	Bill Hutchinson
Regina Walsh Acres	42	54	4	-	Sandra Morin
Regina Wascana Plains	69	27	3	1	Christine Tell
Rosetown-Elrose	82	14	4	-	Jim Reiter
Rosthern-Shelbrook	66	32	2	-	Scott Moe
Saskatchewan Rivers	66	33	1	-	Nadine Wilson
Saskatoon Centre	44	53	3	-	David Forbes
Saskatoon Eastview	54	43	3	-	Corey Tochor
Saskatoon Fairview	49	48	3	-	Jennifer Campeau
Saskatoon Greystone	51	34	3	14	Rob Norris
Saskatoon Massey Place	48	50	2	-	Cam Broten
Saskatoon Meewasin	56	38	3	3	Roger Parent
Saskatoon Northwest	65	31	3	1	Gordon Wyant
Saskatoon Nutana	45	45	5	5	Zoria Broughton or Cathy Sproule
Saskatoon Riversdale	44	53	3	-	Danielle Chartier
Saskatoon Silver Springs	74	20	3	3	Ken Cheveldayoff
Saskatoon Southeast	70	23	3	4	Don Morgan
Saskatoon Sutherland	56	36	4	4	Paul Merriman
Swift Current	83	15	2	-	Brad Wall
The Battlefords	50	39	2	9	Herb Cox
Thunder Creek	80	17	3	-	Lyle Stewart
Weyburn-Big Muddy	75	22	3	-	Dustin Duncan
Wood River	86	11	3	-	Yogi Huyghebaert
Yorkton	69	30	1	-	Greg Ottenbreit

Riding changes since the last prediction:

While the NDP hasn't gone down in the polls, the increase in numbers for the Saskatchewan Party has hurt the NDP badly, and has put many more seats in the “too close to call range”. Seats I had previously going NDP but are now too close to call include Cumberland, Prince Albert Northcote, Regina Coronation Park, Regina Rosemont, Saskatoon Fairview, Saskatoon Massey Place, and even the NDP leader's own seat of Regina Douglas Park. Meanwhile, I have now called two previous too close to call seats for the Saskatchewan Party. Those are Regina Lakeview and Regina Northeast. 

Conclusion

It looks like the Saskatchewan Party will be winning one of the biggest landslide's in the province's history. Never since Saskatchewan joined Canada in 1905 has a party managed over 60% of the vote. If polls are accurate, the SP will break this record. Therefore, they are in uncharted territory. Never has the main opposition party won less than 5 seats in a provincial election. Right now, the NDP is looking at winning a minimum of just 5 seats. Due to concentrations in Regina, Saskatoon and the north, the NDP is unlikely to break this record of just 5 seats, but who knows what could happen!

Manitoba 2011 election results

Results map by riding

Manitobans went to the polls back on October 4, and returned an historic fourth straight NDP majority government. Never in the history of the province has the NDP been able to do that. Much like the 2007 election, the result saw very little change in terms of seat totals. The only net change was the NDP gaining one seat from the fledgling Liberals.

Polls going into the race showed a close race between the Tories and NDP. The final poll before the election, published by Angus Reid put the NDP at 46%, the Tories at 43% and the Liberals at 8%. This would have resulted in a decrease of 2% for the NDP and an increase of 5% for the Tories from the last election. This poll was extremely accurate, as the NDP did end up getting 46%, and the Tories did one better, getting 44%, while the Liberals got 8%.

Party	Leader	Popular vote	%	Seats
N.D.P.	Greg Selinger	199066	46.2	37
Prog. Cons.	Hugh McFadyen	188258	43.7	19
Liberal	Jon Gerrard	32520	7.5	1
Green	James Beddome	10886	2.5	0
Communist	Darrell Rankin	179	0	0
Independents	-	215	0	0

So, the Tories only lost by 2% in the popular vote. But the seat totals showed a different story. The NDP ended up winning 18 seats more than the Tories, or 37 out of 57. What happened? Well, as I mentioned numerous times in my Manitoba projections, Tory support is heavily concentrated in rural Manitoba. Meanwhile, turnout in strong NDP areas is very low. Those areas tend to be low income areas such as the north of Winnipeg, and northern Manitoba (which is also underpopulated to begin with). But still, with the Tories gaining in the popular vote, why didn't they gain any seats at the expense of the NDP? Well it appears, much of the Tory growth occurred in regions they were already strong in, resulting in no growth. They needed to change votes in battleground Winnipeg, but they were unable to do so.

Where I went wrong

With the Tories gaining, and the NDP falling in the polls (and in reality), it seemed obvious to me that the Tories would gain at least a few seats from the NDP. I did foresee a larger gain for the Tories in rural Manitoba, which happened, but what I didn't foresee was little change in Winnipeg. I thought that the Tories would gain a few of their old historical seats back. All in all, I got 5 seats wrong (91% accuracy), which isn't that bad, I'd say.

Dawson Trail

Dawson Trail was probably my biggest mistake of the night. Perhaps I would have been aided here if I had the transposition of the 2007 election results, because this is a brand new riding. I did however know going in that it was created from some of the more NDP friendly areas of the previous riding it was created from, La Verendrye. Perhaps I failed to realize that at least in this part of rural Manitoba (exurban Winnipeg, really), was not going to swing that heavily to the Tories. In total, I was off by an average of 10% from each party in my prediction (including off by 15% for the NDP).

Kirkfield Park

While I didn't pick the winner in Kirkfield Park, I did pick the outcome, and that was a statistical tie. I had both the NDP and the Tories getting 46% of the vote here, and both got 47%. Due to the seat's traditionally Tory leanings however, I felt most comfortable calling this for them. In the end however, it went NDP- by just 26 votes. In the end, I was only off by an average of 1% for each party.

Southdale

Southdale I thought would behave much like Kirkfield Park. This traditionally Tory seat looked ripe for being taken back by the PC Party. Both seats were won by the NDP in 2007 by 11%, but from looking at the map, it appeared Southdale became a lot more conservative leaning after redistribution. The Tories did close the gap a little bit, but still lost the seat by 7 points when I thought they would win by 4. I was off by an average of 4% for each party here.

St. Norbert

If there was one seat that pundits thought would go Tory, but didn't, it was St. Norbert. The riding had been vacated by its incumbent, Marilyn Bryck, and redistribution made the riding more conservative. Also, the NDP had never held the seat prior to first winning it in 2003. The only advantage the NDP seemed to have was the fact they won this south Winnipeg seat in 2007 by 22%. The race was a close one all night on election night, flipping back and forth. In the end, the NDP won by 30 votes. I was off by 7% on average for each party.

Swan River

Finally is the rural riding of Swan River. I figured the large Tory swings in this part of the province would result in this riding going to the Tories. Prior to the 1980s, this seat had always voted Tory, but since then it has been an NDP strong hold. I figured it was time for the riding to back to its PC roots. I was wrong however, as the NDP won the seat by 15%, only a slightly smaller percentage than the 21% the NDP won by there last time. I was off by an average of 6% for each party. 

Maps

NDP popular vote % by riding

 The first three maps show the popular vote strength of the main three parties that contested in the Manitoba election.

The first map shows how well the NDP did in Manitoba's 57 ridings. As you can see, there's a clear polarity between the north and south in rural Manitoba. The sparsely populated north is dominated by the NDP, but the south is nearly a dead zone except for Dawson Trail and Bandon. In Winnipeg, where most of the seats are, the NDP did will in most seats, but especially in the working class north side of the city.

PC popular vote % by riding

The second map shows the Tory vote percentage by seat. In many ways it is just the inverse of the NDP map. Tory strength is concentrated in the rural south of the province, with their best ridings in the heavily German Mennonite communities of the Pembina Valley, where they broke 80% in two seats. In Winnipeg, the Tories only won a handful of suburban seats. The north side of the city is a waste zone for the party, where they often finished third, behind the Liberals.

Liberal vote % by riding

 The third map shows the Liberal support by riding. I apologize for mostly ignoring the Liberals in my commentary, but in effect, the party is on the brink of death in the province. The party won just one seat, that of its leader Jon Gerrard in River Heights. The Liberals are only "strong" in the central part of Winnipeg these days, the area where they used to win seats federally. They also did well in the northwest part of the city, where their other former seat was located. The only seat the federal Liberals hold in Manitoba is Winnipeg North, and much of the western part of that riding is easily visible on this map. That seat is represented by former MLA Kevin Lamoureux whose seat was abolished in redistribution. Much of that seat became Tyndall Park, where the Liberals finished in a strong 2nd place.  

Turnout % by riding

 Finally, the fourth map shows the turnout percentage by riding. Perhaps a better map to show how the NDP its votes would be to have a map showing actual vote numbers, but this is nearly as good. As you can see, the areas where the NDP did the best had a low voter turnout. Add to the fact that those northern ridings are already below the provincial average in population, and you have a recipe for a great electoral advantage for the NDP. That's not all to say that the strong Tory areas had a high turnout either, as you can see the central Manitoba region also had poor turnout. It seemed what motivitated people the most was close races, or the perception thereof. Just look at Kirkfield Park, Southdale, River East, Dauphin and St. Norbert for example. The riding with the highest turnout was River Heights, another closely watched riding featuring the Liberal leader and a strong Tory challenger.

Update! 
I have been graciously emailed a map showing the raw vote totals by riding. It's not dissimilar from the turnout vote, but as I mentioned it highlights the structural advantage the NDP has in the province

Raw total vote by riding.

 

Newfoundland and Labrador 2011 election prediction (Final edition)

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Newfoundland and Labrador goes to the polls today, and we can expect nothing short of another Tory landslide. The party, which has been in power since 2003, is expected to win a third straight majority mandate. That would normally mean a boring election, however the race is still on for which party will be the official opposition.

Two polls were released last week, one by Environics and one by Corporate Research Associates. Environics shows the Tories at 54%, the NDP at 33%, and the Liberals at 13%. Corporate Research shows the Tories at a whopping 59%, the NDP down to 25% and the Liberals at 16%. Corporate Research also showed us some regional breakdowns, with the Tories ahead across the province. The NDP is in 2^nd place in the eastern part of the province, and in the St. John's area, while the Liberals are 2^nd in the west. Their regional numbers seem to reflect my presumptions about what is going on in the province, with the NDP's surge mainly concentrated in the St. John's area, where they hold both federal seats.

With the NDP seen by many Newfoundlanders as the new opposition party, it will be interesting to see how they do. Much of the St. John's area is a strong Tory area, where most incumbents are running for re-election, therefore the NDP will have a hard time winning seats on 25-33% of the province-wide vote. The pundits are suggesting the best shots for the NDP in the area are St. John's North and St. John's Centre, and apparently the Tories and NDP are running neck and neck in the city. Given all the information I could gather, I've compiled my projections.

Riding by riding projections:

Riding	PC	Lib	NDP	Oth	Winning candidate
Baie Verte-Springdale	44	37	19	-	Kevin Pollard
Bay of Islands	42	35	23	-	Terry Loder
Bellevue	42	35	23	-	Calvin Peach
Bonavista North	57	24	19	-	Eli Cross
Bonavista South	80	6	14	-	Glen Little
Burgeo-La Poile	37	55	8	-	Andrew Parsons
Burin-Placentia West	48	3	49	-	Julie Mitchell
Cape St. Francis	56	5	39	-	Kevin Parsons
Carbonear-Harbour Grace	61	12	27	0	Jerome Kennedy
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair	20	67	13	-	Yvonne Jones
Conception Bay East-Bell Island	56	7	37	-	David Brazil
Conception Bay South	64	9	27	-	Terry French
Exploits	59	20	21	-	Clayton Forsey
Ferryland	69	3	28	-	Keith Hutchings
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune	52	29	19	-	Tracey Perry
Gander	55	16	29	-	Kevin O'Brien
Grand Bank	64	13	23	-	Darin King
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans	56	2	42	-	Susan Sullivan
Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South	61	20	25	-	Ray Hunter
Harbour Main	68	4	28	-	Tom Hedderson
Humber East	73	4	23	-	Tom Marshall
Humber Valley	50	46	4	-	Darryl Kelly
Humber West	53	27	20	-	Vaughn Granter
Kilbride	61	4	35	-	John Dinn
Labrador West	34	3	63	-	Tom Harris
Lake Melville	43	34	23	-	Keith Russell
Lewisporte	60	10	30	-	Wade Verge
Mount Pearl North	66	3	31	-	Steve Kent
Mount Pearl South	66	3	31	-	Paul Lane
Placentia-St. Mary's	65	14	21	-	Felix Collins
Port au Port	70	10	20	-	Tony Cornect
Port de Grave	33	44	23	-	Leanne Hussey
Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi	27	2	71	-	Lorraine Michael
St. Barbe	47	38	15	-	Wallace Young
St. George's-Stephenville East	41	39	18	2	Joan Burke
St. John's Centre	48	3	49	-	Gerry Rogers
St. John's East	48	8	44	-	Ed Buckingham
St. John's North	46	7	47	-	Dale Kirby
St. John's South	57	4	39	-	Tom Osborne
St. John's West	50	15	35	-	Dan Crummell
Terra Nova	63	10	25	2	Sandy Collins
The Isles of Notre Dame	49	44	7	-	Derrick Dalley
The Straits-White Bay North	31	47	22	-	Marshall Dean
Topsail	62	2	36	-	Paul Davis
Torngat Mountains	50	37	13	-	Patty Pottle
Trinity-Bay de Verde	58	16	26	-	Charlene Johnson
Trinity North	71	6	23	-	Rose Wiseman
Virginia Waters	54	3	43	-	Kathy Dunderdale

Predicting the toss ups

Burin-Placentia West

This is certainly an odd seat to suggest the NDP has a chance in, but it's true. The riding isn't in the St. John's area, and the federal party did very poor in this area. The Tory MHA for this riding is the Fisheries Minister, and he is coming under some heat. The NDP candidate, Julie Mitchell ran in this riding in 2007 and did very well. I expect her to gain this seat.

Humber Valley

This is a rematch of the 2007 election between former Liberal MHA Dwight Ball and current Tory MHA Darryl Kelly. That race was quite close, with Kelly winning by about 250 votes. Poll don't suggest much change in this part of the province, so I predict that Kelly will keep this seat.

St. George's-Stephensville East

This is the riding where Liberal leader Kevin Aylward is attempting to gain a seat in the house. He will have a hard time however, as the Tory incumbent, Joan Burke received 75% of the vote here in 2007. Aylward did hold the seat from 1985 to 2003. His final election in 1999 was decided by just 600 votes, despite a Liberal majority government. Burke won the election to replace Aylward by just 500 votes. I expect another close race here, but I think Burke will hold on, embarrassing the Liberals.

The Isles of Notre Dame

Former Liberal leader Gerry Reid lost by just 7 votes in this riding in 2007. He won't be running again this time, but the Liberals are still challenging here with their candidate in Danny Dumaresque. Dumaresque is a former president of the Liberals, and a former MHA representing a Labrador riding. He also ran for the leadership of the party. Given all that, I still feel the Tories will keep this seat.

St. John's East

With the NDP surge happening in St. John's they are sure to be on the rise here. This was the party's best St. John's riding in 2007. They are running consumer advocate George Murphy. If the NDP has a good night, they will win this seat, but for now I think the Tories will keep it.

St. John's Centre

The pundits think that the NDP has a shot here, and so with the NDP on the rise in the city, I'll have to call this for them. They are running filmmaker Gerry Rogers in the riding. She is up against cabinet minister Shawn Skinner. Openly Lesbian, let's hope that homophobia isn't a factor here for Rogers. For the record, the NDP lost this seat by 2700 votes in 2007.

St. John's North

The other seat the pundits say the NDP has a chance in is here. The party is running Dale Kirby, “an award winning” professor at Memorial University. Bob Ridgley is the Tory MHA. The NDP finished third here in 2007, losing by 3000 votes. However, given the rise in the numbers for the party, I will project an NDP win here.

Conclusion

It appears as though it will be much the same in 2011 as it was in 2007, with the Tories winning a landslide election. PC leader Kathy Dunderdale is no Danny Williams, but voters will opt to stay the course in a province that has never been as prosperous. However, the big news will be that the NDP should eke out official opposition status, as long as they can make actual seat gains in St. John's.

Polls close at 8pm Newfoundland time, or 6:30 Eastern.