2011 federal election results by provincial riding in Saskatchewan

Click to enlarge

There have been no new polls for the upcoming Saskatchewan provincial election next week, but that won't stop me from showing an interesting map that will be vital to any proper study of the Saskatchewan electoral map. Thanks to Krago, from the rabble.ca forums, I have been able to make a map of the province showing the federal election results transposed to reflect the provincial riding boundaries. He was generous enough once again to send me the raw data.

Before we get into comparing this map to the provincial one, I must make one point about the federal results in Saskatchewan. No province has a worse gerrymander in my opinion of their federal ridings. In the federal election, the Conservatives won 13 seats, the Liberals 1, and the NDP none. Take a look now at the same election, but with provincial riding boundaries. That one Liberal seat was good enough for just 2 provincial seats, and the NDP would have won six times as many, with 12. But it resulted in 0 federal seats. You see, those NDP areas, whether they are in the far north or in Saskatoon and Regina were divied up in such a way that it resulted in the dilution of NDP support, giving them no seats.

The NDP won 32% of the vote in Saskatchewan in the federal election, which is where they are polling at provincially. This doesn't mean those 12 seats they led in the federal election will translate into seats this time. This is because the Tories won 56% of the federal vote in May, but their provincial cousins (the Saskatchewan Party) are polling as high as 10 points more than that. A 10 point gain for the Tories would have meant 5 less theoretical seats for the NDP.  So perhaps, if we look at the federal election alone, the NDP would be poised to win just 7 seats next week. Then there's the matter of those 2 theoretical seats the Liberals won, certainly the provincial Liberals wont win them, the way they are polling (much of that federal vote is personal support for MP Ralph Goodale), and they are only running a candidate in one of them! The NDP presently holds both ridings, but one (Regina Dewdney) is quite marginal. The other won, Regina Doulgas Park was won by the NDP in 2007 by 21%, so they should hold on to it.

If you look at the federal election results, the NDP should be a lock to win the two northern ridings of Athabasca and Cumberland, which they won pretty handily. They should also win Regina Elphinstone-Centre, Saskatoon Nutana, Regina Lakeview, Saskatoon Centre and Saskatoon Riversdale, all seats they won by more than 10% of the vote in the federal election. The other seats they would have won are Regina Rosemont, Regina Coronation Park, Saskatoon Fairview, Saskatoon Massey Place, and Saskatoon Sutherland. The latter was actually won by the Saskatchewan Party in the 2007 election, and is therefore unlikely to go NDP next week. The federal NDP got 44% of the vote there, 2% more than the Conservatives.

The NDP presently holds three small town ridings in the province, all of which the federal party lost. Many, if not all could be lost next week. We should keep our eyes on Prince Albert Northcote, Moose Jaw Wakamow, and The Battlefords. The Conservatives would have won these seats by 5%, 4% and 17% respectively in the federal election. It is my opinion at this point that all of these seats will go to the Saskatchewan Party.

Other seats that the provincial NDP holds but the federal Tories would have won are Saskatoon Meewasin, Saskatoon Eastview, Regina Walsh Acres and Regina Northeast. All but Regina Walsh Acres were marginal races in 2007, and that was only because the Saskatchewan Party candidate backed out of the race. All but Regina Northeast were won by the Tories by less than 5% of the vote in the federal election.

So, much can be learned from this map when it comes to analyzing the upcoming election. It wouldn't be too far fetched to see a similar one next week, just replacing Tory blue with Sask Party green!