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| Overall prediction. Green = Saskatchewan Party; Orange = NDP |
Voters
in Saskatchewan are heading to the polls today in the 28th
general election in the province's history. The governing
conservative “Saskatchewan Party” (Sask Party for short), buoyed
by the province's continued economic boom hopes to maintain their
massive majority in the province's Legislative Assembly. The Sask
Party, under the leadership of Premier Brad Wall has led the province
since 2007, when they ousted the New Democratic Party (NDP), who had
in turn ruled the province prior to that since 1991.
Background
The
last provincial election in 2011 saw the Saskatchewan Party win a
landslide majority, winning 49 seats to the NDP's nine. The large
thumping was largest landslide since 1982, and the Sask Party's 64%
share of the popular vote was the highest in the province's history.
The province had fallen in love with Brad Wall, and were enjoying the
province's new found economic prosperity. Since then, Wall has become
the poster boy of conservatism in Canada, especially since the defeat
of Prime Minister Harper last fall, and the defeat of countless
conservative provincial governments across the country. Every other
province is now led by either a Liberal or an NDP Premier (though the
Liberals in BC are notably right-of-centre).
Wall's
popularity has made it difficult for the NDP to gain any traction in
opposition. Their defeat in 2011 forced its leader, Dwain
Lingenfelter to resign, which was helped by the fact that he lost his
Regina Doulgas Park seat. Lingenfelter would be replaced as leader by
Saskatoon Massey Place MLA Cam Broten, who has tried to renew the
party, perhaps exemplified by a new swanky retro looking logo.
However, the party has lingered in the polls in the mid 30s for much
of the last four years, nowhere close to the Sask Party which has not
dipped under 50% since the last election. All the polls now show the
Sask Party to be leading the NDP at around 60% to 30%.
Since
2003, the province has only elected members of either the right wing
Saskatchewan Party and the left wing NDP. The provincial Liberals
have been nearly dead in the water since last winning a few seats in
1999. In the least election, the Liberals ran just nine candidates in
the 58 seat legislature, and won a grand total of 0.6% of the vote.
The Greens were the third party in that election. They ran a full
slate of candidates, winning nearly 3% of the province wide vote. But
for the Greens, Saskatchewan's brand of prairie populism is an
anathema to the party.
While
the Liberal brand is on the rise across the country, thanks to the
federal Liberals still enjoying a honeymoon period, the provincial
Liberals in Saskatchewan have failed to really capitalize on this.
The party is running a full slate in this election, but most polls
show them in mid-single digits, often behind the Greens. It is
unlikely the Liberals will win a seat, though their leader, Darrin
Lamoureux is running in a brand new riding and is not facing any
incumbents. In all likelihood though, this election will see all of
its seats go to either the Sask Party or the NDP.
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| The Swingometer! Click to enlarge. |
The Swingometer
Considering
Saskatchewan is basically a two-party province, a fun way to make a
rough prediction of the election outcome is to use what is called a
“swingometrer”, something that viewers of British elections might
be familiar with. A swingometer shows the uniform swing needed for a
particular party to win a seat. My swingometer shows the two-party
swing needed from the result of the 2011 election. The two-party
swing is calculated as the average percentage point change each of
the two parties has to shift in a particular seat for the opposing
party to win it.
As
fun as swingometers are, this election will likely not be all that
fun to use it. All four polls that have come out just before the
election show a very small swing in the NDP's favour from the result
of the last election. The most NDP friendly of these polls was
conducted by Mainstreet Research, which showed a 1.6% swing from the
last election (it gave the NDP 31%, down 1% from the last election
and the Saskatchewan Party 60%, down 4.3% from the 64.3% they won in
2011 – giving a swing to the NDP of 1.6%). This swing would net the
NDP just one extra seat (Saskatoon Fairview), albeit just barely. The
other three polls are less favourable to the NDP, showing even
smaller swings in their direction. Insights West's
poll showed the smallest swing,
just 0.1% to the NDP.
Except for the Mainstreet poll,
none of the other pollsters show a swing that would
be large enough for the NDP
to gain any seats. Average the four
polls, and the swingometer
tells us that this election will produce an
exact status quo result. Due
to the recent seat redistribution, this would give the Saskatchewan
Party two extra seats from their 2011 result (51 seats) and the NDP
one extra seat (for a total of ten).
To
win a majority government, the NDP would need a 17.4% uniform
swing in their favour, which
would give them the 31st
riding on the swingometer, Saskatchewan Rivers. The NDP would need a
22.2% swing to win the riding of Yorkton, which is the province's
best bellwether, which has
voted for the winning party since 1964. For Brad Wall to go down in
defeat, the NDP would need a uniform
swing of 31.6% to claim his
riding of Swift Current. All this is a moot though, as the NDP is not
going to come close to winning a majority.
So,
are we headed for the status quo? Maybe. But, the pollsters are
showing different regional swings, which might put some seats in
play. Also keeping in mind
that the swingometer is a measure of uniform
swing,
and we all know that in reality, ridings do not swing in tandem. If
we take a look at the regional breakdowns in the recent polls, we see
that most of the swing
in the NDP's favour is coming from Regina. An average of three
regional polls suggests a 3.7% swing to the NDP in the province's
capital. This would be enough to claim the riding of Regina Douglas
Park (2.5% swing needed),
the seat that former NDP leader Dwain Lingenfelter lost to the Sask
Party's Russ Marchuk in 2011. Marchuk will not be running for
re-election, and redistribution has made the seat much more NDP
friendly, so a win there would not be unexpected for the New
Democrats.
Seats to watch
Outside
of Regina
Douglas Park, none of the regional polls suggest any other seats will
change hands using the swingometer. Of course, that's not to say that
none will. Here are my picks for seats that could change hands (other
than Regina Douglas Park):
-
Moose Jaw Wakamow: This
riding was won by the Saskatchewan Party in 2011, but boundary
changes have made it a notional NDP seat. The Sask Party has the
incumbency advantage, and the NDP is not running the same candidate
as they did in 2011, so this is a possible “pick-up” for the
governing party, albeit just a notional one. The Saskatchewan
Party only
needs
a 0.7% swing to win this
seat.
-
Saskatoon Fairview:
Using
the swingometer, this is the NDP's #1 target. They would only
need
a 1.6% swing to claim the seat. However,
regional
polls in
Saskatoon suggest
the New Democrats may not even see a swing in their favour in the
city. Making
it harder for the NDP is they are up against Jennifer
Campeau, the minister of Central Services, who
is the incumbent.
-
Prince Albert
Northcote: On
the swingometer, this
is the next seat on the NDP's target list after
Saskatoon Fairview.
The Sask Party won it in a close race in 2011. The NDP is not running
the same candidate however, so it might be hard to defeat the Sask
Party incumbent.
The NDP needs a swing of 1.8% to win it.
-
Regina Coronation
Park:
Two of the three regional polls in Regina give the NDP a large enough
swing to pick up this seat, which the New Democrats would need 4.8%
swing to pick up. They would have to defeat cabinet minister Mark
Docherty to claim it though.
Wild
card: Regina
Pasqua: This
brand new riding in the southwest corner of Regina is, on paper a
somewhat safe
Saskatchewan Party seat. The Sask
Party
would have won it with 56% of the vote in 2011 had the riding existed
then. However as it is a new seat, they have no incumbent in
the race.
And this is the riding where Liberal leader Darrin Lamoureux is
running. Considering
the
Liberals are polling in the upper lower digits in Regina though, it
is unlikely that
they
will win it.
Outlook
Using my swingometer, and looking at
the regional swings in recent polls, I predict that the Saskatchewan
Party will win a landslide majority, winning 50 seats to the NDP's
11. My swingometer-based prediction is that the NDP will win one more
seat than they would have in 2011 on the new boundaries
(Regina Douglas Park).
If the polls are correct, then we
are looking at a very boring election, with very few – if any –
ridings changing hands. Brad Wall, the most popular premier in the
country is destined for his third straight majority. Polls close at
8pm Central Standard Time (10pm Eastern Daylight Time).
Seat by seat prediction (ridings coloured by how they would have voted in 2011 on the new boundaries):
Thanks for writing thhis
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