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| The results of the 2011 election on the new map |
The 2011 election
saw the conservative Saskatchewan Party win in a landslide, picking
up 49 of the 58 seats, while the remaining nine seats were won by the
NDP. The Saskatchewan Party swept rural Saskatchewan, winning every
seat outside of Saskatoon and Regina except for the two northern
ridings, which were won by the NDP. In Regina, the Saskatchewan Party
took eight of the 11 seats, and in Saskatoon they took 8 of the 12
seats, leaving the NDP with three and four seats respectively.
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| Actual results of the 2011 election |
The redistribution process gave two new seats to Saskatoon and one new seat to Regina. Outside of the big cities, there were still boundary changes, but nothing too major. Considering the three new seats were added to the cities, one might be inclined to believe the NDP would have been the benefactor of the redistribution. This may be true in an even 50-50 race, but using the 2011 results, the extra seats would have helped the Saskatchewan Party, as they were added to suburban areas, which favoured the Sask Party in 2011. All three of the new seats would have voted for the Saskatchewan Party in 2011.
The NDP did benefit
with the re-drawing of the Moose Jaw Wakamow riding. In 2011, the
Saskatchewan Party candidate won the seat with 49.1% of the vote to
the NDP's 45.9%. The mostly urban riding contained five rural polls
that voted overwhelmingly for the Saskatchewan Party. The
redistribution however removed all five rural polls, which would have
been enough to turn the riding orange, giving the NDP a theoretical
48.3% to 46.9% victory. Overall, this means that redistribution would
have given the Saskatchewan Party a net gain of two seats and the NDP
one.
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| Redistributed results of the 2011 election by riding |
Regional analysis
Most of the major
boundary changes occurred in and around the major urban areas of the
province. Most rural ridings saw only minor boundary shifts.
Saskatoon exurbs
North of Saskatoon, the riding of Martensville was divided up with
the more rural northern portion (including the communities of
Waldheim, Hague and Dalmeny) being transferred to the new riding of
Biggar-Sask Valley, which was created mostly out of the former Biggar
riding. The larger Martensville riding communities of Martensville
and Warman were moved into a new Martensville-Warman riding, along
with two rural polls taken from Saskatoon Northwest. That riding now
becomes an exclusive exurban riding north of Saskatoon, as its other
four rural polls were transferred to Rosetown-Elrose. East of
Saskatoon, the new “rurban” riding of Saskatoon
Stonebridge-Dakota was created, taking in the Stonebridge subdivision
and part of the Briarwood subdivision in Saskatoon and combining it
with a large swath of rural territory to the city's south and east,
including the Dundurn area and the Village of Clavet. This rural
territory includes parts of the former ridings of Humboldt and Arm
River-Watrous. To compensate, the Humboldt riding had to move its
southern boundary past Watrous (thus becoming the new riding of
“Humbolt-Watrous”), while Arm River-Watrous also had to move its
southern boundary, taking in parts of the riding of Thunder Creek.
Losing Watrous meant that the riding would be re-named to just “Arm
River”.
Saskatoon city
In addition to the new riding of Saskatoon Stonebridge-Dakota, the
City of Saskatoon gains one new riding, in its east end. Most of the
ridings in Saskatoon saw minimal boundary changes, but a number of
ridings on the east side of the city saw larger changes to
accommodate the addition of a new riding (as well as the
aforementioned Saskatoon Stonebridge-Dakota.)
The riding of Saskatoon Southeast has become much smaller, as it
loses all of its rural territory, as well as the subdivision of
Stonebridge and part of Briarwood to the new riding of Saskatoon
Stonebridge-Dakota. Saskatoon Greystone loses the neighbourhoods of
Greystone Heights and Grosvenor Park (gaining part of Saskatoon
Eastview to compensate), thus forcing a name change to “Saskatoon
Churchill-Wildwood”). Greystone Heights and Grosvenor Park are
moved to the new riding of Saskatoon University, which is made up
mostly of the former Saskatoon Sutherland riding. In the northeast
corner of the city, the old riding of Saskatoon Silver Springs is
essentially being divided into two. The western half of the riding
(west of Lowe Rd.) becomes the new riding of Saskatoon
Silverspring-Sutherland, which also adds the Sutherland neighbourhood
from Saskatoon Sutherland (hence the name change to “Saskatoon
University”). The eastern half of Saskatoon Silver Springs becomes
the new riding of “Saskatoon Willowgrove”, which also adds the
eastern half of the College Park East neighbourhood from Saskatoon
Sutherland and two polls in Briarwood and a rural poll from Saskatoon
Southeast.
Regina exurbs
West of Regina, all of the rural parts of Regina Qu'Appelle Valley
have been redistributed into the new riding of “Lumsden-Morse”, a
sprawling rural riding that runs from Regina westward to Swift
Current, taking in much of the former riding of Thunder Creek. The
new Lumsden-Morse riding also takes in the rural area southwest of
Regina, including the communities of Rouleau and Avonlea, which were
previously in the riding of Indian Head-Milestone. Indian
Head-Milestone shifts its borders eastward to compensate.
East of Regina, the riding of Regina Wascana Plains loses the
community of Pilot Butte to Indian Head-Milestone, and the Regina
neighbourhoods of University Park (transferred to Regina University)
and part of Windsor Park (transferred to Regina Gardiner Park).
Regina city
Within the city of Regina, there were quite a few boundary shifts in
suburban ridings to make way for the one brand new riding in the
city. On the east side of the city, Regina Dewdney has been renamed
to “Regina Gardiner Park”. It loses the neighbourhood of Glen Elm
Park South to Regina Douglas Park, and part of Glen Cairn to Regina
Northeast, while gaining Rothwell Place from Regina Northeast and
part of Windsor Park from Regina Wascana Plains. On the south side of
the city, Regina South splits in two, with the area east of Albert
Street becoming the new riding of Regina University (which will also
include the neighbourhood of Hillsdale, currently in Regina Douglas
Park) and the area west of Albert Street joining the new riding of
“Regina Pasqua”. In addition to the west side of Regina South,
Regina Pasqua will also include all of the Albert Park area of the
city and the Regina International Airport, currently in the riding of
Regina Lakeview as well as Pioneer Village currently in Regina
Rosemont. To compensate, Regina Lakeview has moved eastward to take
in the Wascana Lake area from Regina Douglas Park. Meanwhile, Regina
Rosemont shifts its boundaries northward, taking in the neighbourhood
of Normanview West North, currently split between Regina Qu'Appelle
Valley and Regina Walsh Acres. This forces Regina Walsh Acres to move
its westward boundary to include Sherwood Estates, currently in
Regina Qu-Appelle Valley. The remainder of the urban portion Regina
Qu-Appelle Valley has become the new riding of “Regina Rochdale”.
Swift Current
Premier Brad Wall's riding of Swift Current has shrunk in size, with
its boundaries becoming nearly coterminous with the city's
boundaries. The riding loses all of its rural area, with about four
polls being transferred to Cypress Hills, about three polls to
Lumsden-Morse and one poll to Wood River.
Yorkton
Saskatchewan's bellwether riding of Yorkton also shrinks in size, as
the riding becomes strictly urban in nature. The riding loses most of
its rural territory to Canora-Pelly with half a poll being
transferred to Melville-Saltcoats.
Moose Jaw
As mentioned earlier, Moose Jaw's southern riding of Moose Jaw
Wakamow loses all of its rural territory to Lumsden-Morse, becoming a
notional NDP riding. The riding also gains the far east end of the
city from the riding of Moose Jaw North, which remains a notional
Sask Part riding.
While there were other boundary changes across the province, those
are probably the most noteworthy.
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| Saskatchewan's new election map (click to enlarge) |
If the Saskatchewan Party can win another landslide on April 4, this
transposition map will likely be very similar to the election
results. But this is in no way a prediction of what will happen. That
will be coming a little bit closer to election day.
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