Prince Edward Island projection (Sept. 20)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

In just two weeks, Canada's smallest province, Prince Edward Island will be going to the polls. And, I have yet to write up a projection for the province which will be going to the polls on Thanksgiving, October 3. It will be the first provincial election of the Fall.

Background

The Liberal Party under Premier Robert Ghiz remains extremely popular in the province. The party's only opposition in the legislature is from the Progressive Conservative Party, led by Olive Crane. The Tories won just 4 seats in the last election in 2007, and have been polling lower than their 41% mark set then ever since. The question appears to be whether or not the Liberals can win every seat in the legislature. This has not happened since 1935. The province, being as small as it is is prone to massive swings in one direction or the other, and parties have routinely won nearly every seat in the legislature. Close elections are not the norm on the island and it has not been since 1996 since an opposition party has won more than 5 seats and it has not been since 1986 since an opposition party has won more than 10.

The most recent poll of island residents was conducted in August, and saw the Liberals with 59% (up 6 from the 2007 election) of support, 31% for the Tories (down 10%), 7% for the NDP and 3% for the Greens. The new populist “Island Party” will also be contesting the election, but was not polled. They will remain the wild card. The NDP is trying to rebound from its 4^th place performance in 2007, but will be hard pressed as it is running one fewer candidate (14). The Greens, which finished third in 2007 are running 22 candidates, up four from 2007. The Island Party is running 12 candidates. There are 27 in total.

Ridings to watch

With the Liberals polling so high, there will be few races to watch in this election. The Liberals are sure to be the strongest in Queens County, which is the central part of the Island (including Charlottetown). The August poll conducted by Corporate Research Associates poll showed that the Liberals have a 32% lead there, which is about 14% more than the last election. In Prince County, in the west, the Liberals have a 15% lead, which is about the same as the last election. This area is represented by Conservative Gail Shea in the federal House of Commons, and may be why the Tories are holding their own here. In the more conservative Kings County, in the east, the Liberals and Tories are tied. This is the only part of the province where the Tories won seats last election. If these numbers are true, then it is unlikely the Liberals will be able to sweep the province. And so, the only races to watch will be in Eastern Prince Edward Island it seems.

While they won 4 seats in the last election, the Tories only hold 2 at present. And only one incumbent is running for re-election. That is Olive Crane in Morrel-Mermaid. She won the seat by 15% in 2007, and is likely to hold on to it. Montague-Kilmuir is the only other seat the Tories presently hold. However, MLA Jim Bagnell is retiring. He only won the seat by 134 votes in 2007, and now that is vacant, it will be ripe for the picking. Georgetown-St. Peter's was vacated back in March when its MLA, Mike Currie ran for the federal Tories. He had won the seat by 9% points, and will be high target for the Liberals. And finally, the fourth seat the Tories won in 2007 was Belfast-Murray River. It was won by Tory Premier Pat Binns in 2007, but he resigned the seat later that year, only to have it filled by Liberal Charlie McGeoghegan. The Tories could pick the seat back up however, as they are polling higher than when McGeoghegan won his seat. The Tories may also have a shot at some seats in Prince County, but it is unlikely. Their best shot is Alberton-Roseville where they lost by just 123 votes.

What about the other parties? Well, the NDP has only won one seat ever on the island, in 1996. While they are polling close to where they were in 1996, with just 15 candidates, the party will likely be seen as too disorganized. If you compare the federal election to the provincial ridings however, the NDP could have a shot at Charlottetown-Victoria Park, Charlottetown-Parkdale or Charlottetown-Sherwood, where they won quite a few polls. However, the Green Party leader Sharon Labchuk is running there, and she may cut into the NDP's votes. The NDP leader, James Rodd is running in York-Oyster Bed. In the federal election, the NDP candidate did fairly well in the area, getting as high as 25% in one poll. A well run campaign could give him 20% of the vote.

Projections

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Oth	Projected winner
Alberton-Roseville	51	45	-	3	1	Pat Murphy
Belfast-Murray River	50	45	-	4	1	Charlie McGeoghegan
Borden-Kinkora	67	25	-	8	-	George Webster
Charlottetown-Brighton	68	17	8	7	-	Robert Ghiz
Charlottetown-Lewis Point	67	24	7	2	-	Kathleen Casey
Charlottetown-Parkdale	66	22	10	2	-	Doug Currie
Charlottetown-Sherwood	65	24	8	3	-	Robert Mitchell
Charlottetown-Victoria Park	65	19	7	9	-	Richard Brown
Cornwall-Meadowbank	68	28	-	3	1	Ron MacKinley
Evangeline-Miscouche	56	39	-	4	1	Sonny Gallant
Georgetown-St. Peter's	51	38	8	2	1	Kevin Gotell
Kellys Cross-Cumberland	59	22	10	7	2	Valerie Docherty
Kensington-Malpeque	64	30	6	-	-	Wes Sheridan
Montague-Kilmuir	53	43	-	2	2	Allan Roach
Morell-Mermaid	46	51	-	2	1	Olive Crane
O'Leary-Inverness	62	38	-	-	-	Robert Henderson
Rustico-Emerald	76	21	-	3	-	Carolyn Bertram
Souris-Elmira	58	41	-	-	1	Allan Campbell
Stratford-Kinlock	50	39	7	4	-	Cynthia Dunsford
Summerside-St. Eleanors	54	36	7	3	-	Gerard Greenan
Summerside-Wilmot	57	39	-	3	1	Janice Sherry
Tignish-Palmer Road	55	44	-	-	1	Neil LeClair
Tracadie-Hillsborough Park	65	23	8	3	1	Buck Watts
Tyne Valley-Linkletter	58	42	-	-	-	Paula Biggar
Vernon River-Stratford	55	34	8	3	-	Alan McIsaac
West Royalty-Springvale	61	29	6	4	-	Bush Dumville
York-Oyster Bed	63	23	10	4	-	Robert Vessey

Conclusion

The Liberals should easily win a massive majority. The Tories however, will probably win at least one seat (Morell-Mermaid). Whether or not they can win another is the real question. As of right now, I'd have to say no. 

Ontario election 2011 prediction (September 13)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith.

Four more polls have been released since my last prediction on September 2. What they are beginning to show is that the Liberals have now overtaken the Tories for top spot in the province. Usually when the Liberals gain in the polls, it comes at the expense of the NDP, but the NDP and the Tories are holding firm in their numbers, and the Liberal gain appears to come from a collapse in the Green vote.

This projection will only look at the two most recent polls taken this past weekend. One by Nanos Research and one by Ipsos Reid:

	Nanos	Ipsos-Reid	Avg	Change
Liberal	38 (+6)	38 (+2)	38	(+8)
PC	35 (-1)	37 (-1)	36	n/c
NDP	24 (+1)	24 (+1)	24	-1
Greens	3 (-1)	1 (-2)	2	-5

The change is from their most recent polls, Nanos just 2 weeks ago (Aug 30-Sept 1) while the Ipsos-Reid poll change is from their last poll, six weeks ago. The Avg is the number used for my projection, while the change is from the numbers used in my last projection on September 2.

The public appears to be scared of the possibility of Hudak government, but NDP supporters seem enthusiastic about the party's high poll numbers not to jump ship. The non existent Green campaign has therefore resulted in their voters fleeing to the Liberals. Or so I can only guess! The current Liberal surge comes as a bit of a surprise to me, but then again, McGuinty pulled it off in 2007.

As mentioned, I skipped two polls from 2 weeks ago. One was a Nanos poll, and one was by Harris Decimawhich showed an unbelievable 11 point lead for the Liberals. Methinks it's an outlier.

Seat by seat projection

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Projected winner
Ajax—Pickering	46	38	13	3	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	40	16	42	2	Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	37	43	17	3	Donna Skelly
Barrie	29	48	19	4	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	25	18	50	7	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	44	28	27	1	Kuldip Kular
Brampton West	45	39	15	1	Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale	45	35	18	2	Linda Jeffrey
Brant	45	33	21	1	Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	30	48	15	7	Bill Walker
Burlington	33	47	18	2	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	28	46	24	2	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	37	48	13	2	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	31	44	23	2	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	38	12	48	2	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	46	30	23	1	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	49	39	9	3	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	27	50	11	12	Sylvia Jones
Durham	30	48	19	3	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	53	37	9	1	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	29	48	22	1	Jeff Yurek
Essex	27	39	33	1	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	50	36	13	1	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	51	26	22	1	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	44	35	18	3	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	40	44	14	2	Marlissa Gosselin
Guelph	48	29	15	8	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	24	60	15	1	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	37	47	13	3	Laurie Scott
Halton	37	47	15	1	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	26	19	51	4	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	29	29	41	1	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	33	28	38	1	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	42	36	21	1	Carol Mitchell
Kenora—Rainy River	32	30	37	1	Sarah Campbell
Kingston and the Islands	47	30	21	2	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	45	33	20	2	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	38	42	18	2	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	32	47	18	3	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	42	39	18	1	Maria Van Bommel
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	35	43	19	3	Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville	27	55	15	3	Steve Clark
London North Centre	44	29	23	4	Deb Matthews
London West	49	32	18	1	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	38	30	31	1	Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville	50	30	19	1	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	50	33	16	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	47	41	11	1	Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South	46	37	16	1	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	45	39	15	1	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	47	37	14	2	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	33	49	14	4	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	37	47	13	3	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	45	36	17	2	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	24	55	19	2	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	28	20	51	1	France Gelinas
Nipissing	37	46	16	1	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	42	37	19	2	Lou Rinaldi
Oak Ridges—Markham	41	43	15	1	Farid Wassef
Oakville	46	40	12	2	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	20	43	36	1	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	34	21	40	5	Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South	49	31	17	3	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	44	37	17	2	Bob Chiarelli
Ottawa—Orleans	49	37	12	1	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	48	23	25	4	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	27	52	19	2	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	29	15	52	4	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	22	49	22	7	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	43	40	14	3	John Wilkinson
Peterborough	44	30	24	2	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	47	34	17	2	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	40	38	21	1	Leona Dombrowsky
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	21	66	12	1	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	45	38	15	2	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	44	35	19	2	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	46	29	20	5	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	26	46	27	1	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	54	17	28	1	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	45	29	25	1	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	42	24	32	2	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	53	28	18	1	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	43	31	25	1	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	48	22	29	1	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	27	53	16	4	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	24	55	14	7	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	31	52	16	1	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	52	15	32	1	Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill	36	53	10	1	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	33	24	42	1	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	44	13	42	1	Michael Gravelle
Timikaming—Cochrane	36	18	45	1	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	30	23	46	1	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	47	21	27	5	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	29	12	53	6	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	35	15	46	4	Rasario Marchese
Vaughan	54	34	11	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	27	33	39	1	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	29	56	11	4	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	28	49	20	3	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	46	37	15	2	David Zimmer
Windsor West	27	25	47	1	Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh	45	25	29	1	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	44	41	14	1	Monte Kwinter
York South—Weston	42	15	42	1	Paul Ferriera or Laura Albanese
York West	54	17	28	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	27	53	17	3	Julia Munro

Seat changes since last projection

I'd like to firstly thank those who emailed me or commented on my last blog post, their thoughts on a few ridings. I have incorporated many of your observations. One riding (Glengarry—Prescott—Russell) flipped from the Liberals to the Tories because of one such email I received. Keep them coming!

All of the other riding changes benefited the Liberals. This projection shows them gaining 18 seats (a net of 17): Ajax—Pickering, Brampton West, Brampton—Springdale, Brant, Etobicoke—Lakeshore, Huron—Bruce, London—Fanshawe, Mississauga South, Mississauga—Brampton South, Mississauga—Erindale, Niagara Falls, Northumberland—Quinte West, Oakville, Ottawa West—Nepean, Ottawa—Orleans, Richmond Hill, Scarborough Southwest and Willowdale. All were too close to call in my last projection. The Tories meanwhile have lost Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Oak Ridges—Markham and Prince Edward—Hastings to “too close to call”, while the NDP has lost Algoma—Manitoulin, Thunder Bay—Superior North and York South—Weston also to “too close to call”.

Conclusion

Despite a narrow lead in the polls, the Liberals are on the cusp of a majority government. The projection shows them winning 53 seats (with 5 of those too close to call). The are tied with the NDP in one seat (York South—Weston). If they were to win that tied seat, they would get the majority needed of 54. The Liberal maximum however is at just 56- a narrow majority. That's if they win Algoma—Manitoulin and Oak Ridges—Markham which are both too close to call, but are leaning to the NDP and the Tories respectively.

The huge seat change can be attributed to the large number of seats which are within a close range of each other. A small swing in the vote in favour of the Liberals benefited them greatly in the projection. However, the seat change came mostly from previously too close to call races, and therefore did not eat into the core Tory and NDP seats much. 

Methodology/disclaimer

I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.

Newfoundland and Labrador projection (Sept. 8)

Click to enlarge

The province of Newfoundland and Labrador will also be going to the polls this fall. Their election date is set for October 11. And now that there has finally been another poll released in the province, I can do my first official projection for Canada's youngest province.

Corporate Research Associates released a poll Tuesday indicating that very little has changed since previous poll from last May. The poll, which was conducted from August 15-31 indicated the following,

Prog. Cons.: 54%

NDP: 24%

Liberal: 22%

Despite still having the support of a majority of voters, the Tories are actually polling their worst since probably before Danny Williams was leader. The NDP likewise is in all likelihood at their highest polling numbers ever.

Background

Popular Tory Premier Danny Williams resigned at the height of his game last December. Williams was first elected in the 2003 election with a large majority of the vote (59%). His popularity was so high, that he won the 2007 election with the highest popular vote percentage in Canadian history, with 70% of th vote! It's a wonder how his party didn't win every seat in the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. Somehow the Liberals won 3 seats and the NDP won 1. The Tories won 44. Despite Williams leading the provincial Tories, he hated the federal Tories. His “Anybody But Conservative” campaign in the 2008 federal election helped shut out the Harper conservatives on the rock. The Tories did come back in 2011 by winning Labrador, but were still shut out on the island.

Williams was replaced by Newfoundland's first female Premier, Kathy Dunderdale. Despite slipping in the polls, her party is still well in the lead. We were bound for having an all-female leader election this Fall, but it was not to be. Liberal leader Yvonne Jones had to step down last month due to cancer, and the Liberals quickly elected former MHA (Member of the House of Assembly) Kevin Aylward to lead them into the election. The NDP, which currently holds 2 seats in the Canadian House of Commons in the province is led by former nun Lorraine Michael. Her seat is the only one held by the party in the House of Assembly.

Races to watch

Labrador

It appears that every riding in Labrador will be interesting to watch come election night. Cartwright—L'Anse au Clair is probably the only sure bet, as it has always voted Liberal. The only question is how will Yvonne Jones fair there after she stepped down as Liberal leader due to cancer. Labrador West has been a riding that has flipped between all three parties in recent elections. Tory MHA Jim Baker is stepping aside, creating a showdown between the Tories and the NDP here. This riding is the NDP's best shot at a second seat in the province, having only lost it by 400 votes in 2007. This part of Labrador also went NDP in the federal election. Lake Melville will be an interesting race because Tory MHA John Hickey is stepping down. This seat is historically Liberal, but Hickey benefited in the 2003 election on a vote split with the Labrador Party helping him win his first race. Finally, up in the Torngat Mountains, Tory MHA Patty Pottle will be in a fight with the Liberals. She won her 2007 race by just 76 votes.

St. John's & the Avalon Peninsula

The Avalon Peninsula is the more Tory friendly part of the province. Interestingly, this is also the area that has gone NDP federally as of late, due to disaffected federal Tories making their switch to the NDP. Perhaps an unlikely choice, but when you've never voted Liberal in generations, why start now?

This part of the province was the best area for Danny Williams, as his Tories racked up massive majorities in most seats. The question is whether or not the NDP can make some inroads here, like they did provincially.

The NDP's lone seat in the province is Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi. The seat has been held by the party since 1990 when former provincial NDP leader (and current MP) Jack Harris won it. The race has been close in recent elections, and current MHA and leader Lorraine Michaels may be in a tough race against the Auditor General of the province, John Noseworthy, who is running for the Tories.

The other St. John's seats were won by overwhelming margins for the Tories in 2007, none lower than 70% of the vote. Only one incumbent is retiring, Sheila Osborne in St. John's West. She got 73% of the vote last time, and it's unlikely the Tories will lose it now.

The Tories won more massive majorities in the St. John's suburbs. Only one seat is open, as Dave Devine is retiring in Mount Pearl South. Considering he won with 84% of the vote in 2007, this one should stay Tory!

The only Liberal seat on the Avalon peninsula is Port de Grave. This seat has been Liberal for all by 7 years since the province joined confederation, and has been Liberal since 1985. MHA Roland Butler will be retiring however, making this seat an interesting one to watch, as he had only won by less than 300 votes in the 2007 election. All other races on the peninsula should be easy Tory wins.

Rural Newfoundland

Outside of the Avalon Peninsula has been traditionally more Liberal in the province. Having said that, the Liberals hold just 2 seats in all of this area, and won only one in the last election. However, if they are to make gains, it will most likely be here.

Some seats the Liberals could pick off include Bellevue (where Tory Calvin Peach won by 800 votes in 2007), The Isles of Notre Dame (where Tory Derrick Dalley won by just 7 votes), Bay of Islands (where Tory Terry Loder defeated the Liberal MHA Eddie Joyce by 400 votes. They will be in a rematch), and Humber Valley (which will be another rematch of last election where Tory Darryl Kelly defeated the sitting MHA, Dwight Ball by 300 votes). Also, recent by-elections in the area have also shown that the Liberals should be targeting other seats, such as St. Barbe. Former Liberal leader Jim Bennett is running again there in a seat he lost by 900 votes in 2007. The Liberals came within 400 votes of winning a 2008 by-election in Baie Verte-Springdale, and 700 votes from winning Terra Nova in 2009. Also, we musn't forget the riding Liberal leader Kevin Aylward is running in, St. George's—Stephenville East. He will have an uphill battle, as the Liberals were 50% behind in the 2007 election. The Liberals had picked up just one seat in a by-election during the last legislative session. Marhsall Dean won the seat for the Grits in 2009. Benefiting from a large 19% swing, he beat the Tory candidate by just 126 votes. The only other Liberal seat in the area is Burgeo-LaPoile. This Liberal stronghold should continue to go Liberal, despite the retiring of its incumbent, Kelvin Parsons. His son, Andrew will be the party's candidate in the riding that has been held by the Tories for just 7 years since 1949.

Meanwhile, the NDP will be setting its sights at Burin-Placentia West. Their candidate is Julie Mitchell, who ran and lost by 1,400 votes in 2007 to Tory Clyde Jackman. With the NDP doing much better in the polls, she is sure to have a shot at the riding. This appears to be the party's third best hope in the province.

The Tories will just have two retiring incumbents in the area. Bonavista North and Bonavista South. The Liberals may have a shot at the north riding, where Harry Harding is retiring. This seat has voted Liberal for most of its history, but the Liberals lost by 1,500 votes in 2007. In the south riding, Rodger Fitzgerald is retiring. He was acclaimed in 2007, meaning it will be hard to guage how well the Liberals will do. It has been a Tory riding since 1993 however, and Fitzgerald won by 3,300 votes in his last contested election of 2003.

Riding by riding projections:

Riding	PC	Lib	NDP	Winning candidate
Baie Verte-Springdale	40	43	17	Neil Ward
Bay of Islands	44	46	10	Eddie Joyce
Bellevue	40	41	19	Pam Pardy Ghent
Bonavista North	52	30	18	Eli Cross
Bonavista South	77	12	11	Glen Little
Burgeo-La Poile	31	60	9	Andrew Parsons
Burin-Placentia West	47	9	44	Clyde Jackman
Cape St. Francis	61	12	27	Kevin Parsons
Carbonear-Harbour Grace	59	19	22	Jerome Kennedy
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair	17	73	10	Yvonne Jones
Conception Bay East-Bell Island	56	14	30	David Brazil
Conception Bay South	63	16	21	Terry French
Exploits	54	27	19	Clayton Forsey
Ferryland	68	9	23	Keith Hutchings
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune	47	35	18	Tracey Perry
Gander	53	23	24	Kevin O'Brien
Grand Bank	62	19	19	Darin King
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans	56	4	40	Susan Sullivan
Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South	56	26	18	Ray Hunter
Harbour Main	67	11	22	Tom Hedderson
Humber East	68	11	21	Tom Marshall
Humber Valley	41	54	5	Dwight Ball
Humber West	48	33	19	Vaughn Granter
Kilbride	76	7	17	John Dinn
Labrador West	35	7	58	Tom Harris
Lake Melville	41	40	19	Keith Russell
Lewisporte	55	17	28	Wade Verge
Mount Pearl North	69	6	25	Steve Kent
Mount Pearl South	69	6	25	Paul Lane
Placentia-St. Mary's	63	20	17	Felix Collins
Port au Port	65	16	19	Tony Cornect
Port de Grave	31	51	18	Leanne Hussey
Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi	30	3	67	Lorraine Michael
St. Barbe	41	44	15	Jim Bennett
St. George's-Stephenville East	35	46	19	Joan Burke
St. John's Centre	60	6	34	Shawn Skinner
St. John's East	54	10	36	Ed Buckingham
St. John's North	62	9	29	Bob Ridgley
St. John's South	64	6	31	Tom Osborne
St. John's West	57	17	26	Dan Crummell
Terra Nova	58	17	24	Sandy Collins
The Isles of Notre Dame	42	50	8	Danny Dumaresque
The Straits-White Bay North	26	54	20	Marshall Dean
Topsail	66	4	30	Paul Davis
Torngat Mountains	47	43	10	Patty Pottle
Trinity-Bay de Verde	56	23	21	Charlene Johnson
Trinity North	66	13	21	Rose Wiseman
Virginia Waters	63	5	32	Kathy Dunderdale

Conclusion

Even though the Liberals were stagnant in the most recent poll, they have really benefited from the decrease in the popularity of the Tories. While they are now in third place in the polls, they are projected to win at least 7 seats. I have made a guess that the Liberals will be doing well in the western part of the province, which is the region which saw some good by-election results, and it the traditional home turf for the party. Also, their leader is running there, although I project he will lose his seat. This was also the area of PC Premier Danny Williams. Now that he is out of the picture, the inflated Tory vote will be deflated. The Liberals are also benefiting by having the edge in a number of close ridings.

I predict that much of the Tory vote will be concentrated in the eastern part of the province, which is where they have done well historically, and recently. The Liberals will finish in a distant third place in the region. I expect the NDP to do very well here, but will not win any more seats than they have already, because they wont be able to catch up to the massive Tory majorities. That's why they are still looking at two seats, despite being in 2^nd place in the polls. In fact, their next best shot is the riding of Burin-Placentia West, which is not even in the St. John's area. Without any real “star candidates”, the NDP wont be able to pick up many seats.

Methodology/disclaimer

I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.