Re-cap of the Manitoba NDP leadership election: An excercise in futility?

Yesterday, the governing New Democratic Party of Manitoba held a leadership convention and re-elected their leader, Premier Greg Selinger. Back in the Fall, there was a caucus revolt in the party, following two years of trailing the opposition Progressive Conservative Party in the polls, due in part to recent unpopular policies, such as raising the Provincial Sales Tax. The NDP has been in power since 1999, and Selinger has been Premier since the last leadership vote in 2009. Following the revolt, which involved the resignation of five cabinet ministers, Selinger refused to step down as Premier, and called a leadership election.


Polls in Manitoba now show the NDP trailing the Tories by at least 20 points, and are now in threat of being surpassed by the Liberals, who hold just one seat in the legislature. This was no matter for a majority delegates at the convention this weekend, as they narrowly chose to keep Selinger as Premier. 50.9% of delegates voted for Selinger on the second ballot yesterday, defeating MLA Theresa Oswald. Another MLA, Steve Ashton (father of MP Nikki Ashton) also ran for leader, but was eliminated on the first ballot, in a close three way race. After the first ballot, Selinger had the support of 36% of delegates, Oswald had 34% and Ashton had 30%. Normally when party's have their annual or biennial leadership reviews, leaders need at least 70% support to feel comfortable enough to stay on as leader. This wasn't a leadership review, but it's clear Selinger barely even has majority support in his party, which means he will be in tough to lead the party into the next election, scheduled for the Spring of 2016.

The leadership candidates

The Manitoba NDP uses a traditional delegated leadership convention, which is relatively unheard for other provincial New Democratic Parties. Delegates are selected in a number of different fashions. More than half of the delegates were chosen at delegate meetings held across the province in February. Local members of the NDP in each riding elected slates of delegates representing the candidates. Slates were elected using plurality-at-large voting, meaning that in most cases one candidate would win all or almost all of the delegates in a riding. The number of delegates a riding has was determined based on the party's membership in that riding. Of all the ridings, The Pas, in Northern Manitoba had the most delegates with 145, owing in part to an expected by-election there, which has increased party memberships. Members in The Pas, and in four other ridings in Northern Manitoba had to mail in their ballots, as delegates meetings would have been impossible to hold in such geographically large ridings. The minimum amount of delegates a riding could have was five, which 10 ridings had. All but nine of those ridings are held by the Tories.


After all the delegate meetings were held across the province, it was clear that a close three-way race was emerging. Steve Ashton won the most constituency delegates with 482. Selinger was next with 415, and Theresa Oswald was close behind with 336. Another 7 delegates were unpledged. Oswald won an additional 91 delegates from the Manitoba NDP youth, while Ashton won one. Only 77 youth delegates showed up to the actual leadership convention, however. 1,212 of the 1,240 elected constituency delegates showed up to the convention. In order to vote, delegates had to attend the convention held at the Canad Inns Polo Park in Winnipeg.

Candidate delegate geography 

Delegate winners by riding

Selinger saw his best delegate meeting results in Winnipeg's working class north end, an area that is home to the NDP's base in the province. Outside of this area, Selinger won a splattering of ridings across the province, including both Brandon seats. His big delegate-haul was The Maples, in the northwest corner of Winnipeg, where he won all 117 delegates. His next best delegate win was Point Douglas in the north end of the city, where he won 34 delegates. Ashton won the most amount of constituency delegates, thanks in part to his big win in The Pas (126 of 145 delegates), which is right next door to his home riding of Thompson. Ashton did not sweep the north however (another strong NDP region of the province), as The Pas and Thompson were the only seats he won. He won most of his seats in suburban Winnipeg, and won a few rural seats as well. Ashton's other big wins were Thompson (61 delegates), Elmwood (59 of 61), Concordia (46) and St. Norbert (44). Despite winning the least amount of constituency delegates, Oswald won the most amount of constituencies. She did this by winning ridings with fewer delegates, in areas such as the south end suburbs of Winnipeg and in rural southern Manitoba. Oswald represents Seine River in the legisulatre, a suburban riding in the south end of Winnipeg, which is an important swing area that was key for past NDP election victories. Oswald did well in these swing areas, indicating that she may have been the best candidate for the party to retain these seats. Oswald's only major delegate win came from Wolseley, a seat in central Winnipeg, where she won 45 of a possible 48 delegates. Other than Wolseley, she did not win any seats with fewer than 25 delegates.

Other delegates

Owing in part to the NDP's formation in 1961 as a merger of the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation and the Canadian Labour Congress, unions still have a major influence in the NDP and are often still awarded delegates in some provincial leadership races. The Manitoba NDP, which still uses an archaic delegated convention anyways, is no exception in this regard. Selinger received endorsements from the two biggest affiliated unions, CUPE and the UFCW. While not all union delegates are bound to vote for who their union endorsed, these high profile union endorsements were key for Selinger to win the nomination, and to over come his lack of constituency delegates. Unions were initially entitled 691 delegates, but were only able to fill up 296 slots at the convention. Even still, this was enough to held Selinger get elected. Despite winning the endorsement of two unions (United Fire Fighters and the United Steelworkers), it is clear from the results that Ashton did not win very many actual union delegates (no more than 12 by my estimation), despite both unions being worth a combined 86 delegates.


In addition to the constituency, youth a union delegates, 157 ex-officio delegates (of a possible 200) attended the convention, representing the party's riding associations, plus MLAs, Members of Parliament and other officials. While a caucus revolt spurred the leadership election, Selinger still had a lot of support from caucus members. 15 of the 37 members of caucus backed Selinger, compared to eight for Oswald and seven for Ashton (the rest were neutral). Assuming Ashton won a handful of union delegates, he probably won very if ex-officios other than the support of those seven caucus members, and presumably his daughter. Oswald must have won many ex-officios, considering her weak union support.


1,742 delegates (out of a possible 2,217) attended the convention, and thus were able to vote for leader yesterday. 1,699 delegates voted on the first ballot, and just 1,490 on the second. One would think that once Ashton was eliminated after the first ballot, most of his delegates would go to Oswald, to stop Selinger. However, this did not quite happen. It looks like a plurality of his delegates did not even vote on the second ballot. Those who did were evenly split between Oswald and Selinger. Oswald gained 151 votes on the second ballot, while Selinger gained 147 (while 209 fewer delegates voted on the second ballot). All three candidates were seen as polarizing figures, with deep flaws ,preventing much cross-support. It appears there were just as many people who did not want to see Oswald or Ashton win than who did not want to see Selinger win. This polarization was another factor that helped Selinger win, as delegates of his opponents could not unite against him.

Outlook 

In my opinion, the Manitoba NDP's archaic delegated voting system and union delegates helped Selinger win despite his clear lack of popular support. With a more democratic one member, one vote system, Selinger would probably have lost the leadership race, allowing the Manitoba NDP a chance at renewal. While it's likely the NDP was going to lose the next election no matter who they chose as leader, choosing to keep Selinger was probably the worst thing the party could have done. They had a chance to save grace, but instead will likely face a metaphorical blood bath in the next election. And with the Liberal brand on the rise across the country, the next election could be a repeat of the 1988 election (where the Liberals formed the opposition, with the NDP in third), but with a large majority for the Tories. And for now, the Selinger has to lead a beleaguered, divided party for at most, another 13 months.

NDP leadership endorsement map - final edition

The NDP leadership election is right around the corner, and I have finally compiled the map of political endorsements for the candidates. Since I last published my map in February, a lot has happened, including one of the candidates (Romeo Saganash) dropping out. There have been a huge swath of endorsements, so many, that I'm afraid my map will not be 100% accurate. I did try my best, but I haven't had the time over the last few weeks to religiously follow all the endorsements I'm afraid. So I did my best, following twitter feeds and news items from candidates websites.

If I missed any endorsements, I apologize. Unfortunately, since I am actually going to the convention this weekend, I won't have the time to fix my maps. But please let me know by leaving a comment.

Without further ado, here is the map:

If nothing else, this map is a good indicator of where NDP support is strongest across the country. It goes without saying that endorsements mean very little in the party leadership race. Each endorser has but one vote, and is equal to the endorsement of any other party member, including myself. But, due to the fact it is unlikely the party will release provincial results, this map shows the next best thing.

As I mentioned in my last post about the NDP leadership, BC and Ontario are the most important provinces, with over half of the memberships there. Both provinces are the most eclectic, as all of the major candidates have been able to gain important endorsements there. For the record though, Topp appears to have the edge in BC while Mulcair has the edge in Ontario.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec will also be key provinces. Alberta has been a dead zone for endorsements however, as the party has very few elected politicians there. Saskatchewan is dominated by Topp, Manitoba is an Ashton vs Dewar race, and Quebec will be a wash for Mulcair. Nova Scotia has had a lot of endorsements as well. I wish I had the time to make a Halifax inset on the map, so I apologize for the clutter. But anyways, despite forming government there, the Nova Scotia NDP membership is quite low, and wont be a huge factor this weekend.

Well, I wish I could provide more analysis, but this will have to do for now. I do have to get my rest before I head off to Toronto tomorrow. I will be tweeting from the convention floor, so don't forget to follow me! The first ballot will be tallied Saturday morning. Enjoy the convention, everyone. I know I will!

NDP membership maps

The NDP leadership convention is only two weeks away, and so I've decided to do a brief analysis of the party's membership. Updated numbers were released at the beginning of the month, showing the party's membership for each of the 10 provinces and three territories.

The membership deadline for voting in the leadership race was almost a month ago, so the updated figures will be the official figures for the leadership race. Members will be able to vote either online, by mail or at the party's leadership convention.

Totals:

Province / Territory	NDP members	% of population (2011 census)	Members to NDP MP's ratio	NDP 2011 votes to members ratio
Alberta	9800	0.27	9800	24
British Columbia	39859	0.91	3321.6	15.3
Manitoba	11991	0.99	5995.5	10.6
New Brunswick	946	0.13	946	122.4
Newfoundland and Labrador	974	0.19	487	72.8
Nova Scotia	3904	0.42	1301.3	35
Northwest Territories	124	0.3	124	57.6
Nunavut	24	0.08	-	63.5
Ontario	36965	0.29	1760.2	38.3
Prince Edward Island	262	0.19	-	46.3
Quebec	13987	0.18	241.2	116.6
Saskatchewan	11243	1.09	-	13.1
Yukon	747	2.2	-	3.1
Total (including others)	131152	0.39	1298.5	34.4

NDP Membership by province and territory.

 As you can see, over half of all NDP members are in BC and Ontario. This is good for the party, considering it is in those two regions the party needs to grow in order form government. However, the party also needs to worry about keeping strength in Quebec. While membership in Quebec has increased a lot, it is still not going to be a huge factor.

This discrepancy can be shown best through the last two columns on my chart. The third column in my chart shows the ratio of NDP Members to NDP Members of Parliament. Quebec has one NDP Member of Parliament for every 241 members. This is a very low number, second only to the Northwest Territories, which has one MP and a total of 124 members in the entire territory. My next map illustrates this well:

The fourth column shows the ratio of NDP voters in the last federal election to members. One would think that the provinces should be generally equal, but this is not the case. Some provinces' citizens are more likely to want to join a political party than others. Much has been said about how fickle Quebec voters can be, and the chart shows how unwilling they are to commit to the party they overwhelmingly backed in 2011. There are 117 NDP voters for every NDP member in the province. Only New Brunswick was more out of balance. It appears provinces without NDP voting traditions had the most discrepancies. The Yukon has the lowest NDP voter to member ratio. The party has a high membership in the Territory, but had a poor showing in the federal election. It's likely many NDP members didn't even vote for the NDP last May. I have made another map showing the ratio:

The second column in the chart shows the percentage of the population in each region who is an NDP member. Interestingly, the two jurisdictions with the highest percentage of NDP members both have zero NDP Members of Parliament. Over 2% of the population of the Yukon holds an NDP membership (thanks perhaps to a re-invigorated territorial party). And, just over 1% of Saskatchewan holds an NDP membership. The party should be happy about that, especially coming off a poor election result in the Fall, and going four straight federal elections without winning a seat. My next map shows this:

So, there are clearly four tiers of provinces. Ontario and BC have the most influence, with both having over 30,000 members. Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Quebec are the next tier, all with around 10,000 members. Nova Scotia is in a tier of its own, with 4000 members. The rest of the provinces round out the final tier, all of which have less than 1000 members. It is clear that Ontario and BC will be the key provinces to focus on.

NDP leadership endorsement map - as of Feb 4

Click to enlarge.

Okay, this is a little late, but it's time for my February update of the NDP leadership map.

At this point, the race is still up in the air, with no clear favourite. Throughout the month of January, most of the candidates have still got some pretty big endorsements:

Nikki Ashton: Ashton looks like she'll be one of the last place candidates, but that hasn't stopped her from getting some support from caucus. She now has the support of four M.P.s, including most recently, Carol Hughes.

Nathan Cullen: Cullen went into January without any caucus support, but has managed to get endorsements from 2 BC M.P.s, Alex Atamenenko and Fin Donnelly.

Paul Dewar: Dewar also started the month with no caucus support, but now has the support of four M.P.s, Linda Duncan, Charlie Angus, Irene Mathyssen, and Claude Gravelle.

Thomas Mulcair: Mulcair continues to lead the way in endorsements. He gained two M.P.s, Don Davies and Ryan Cleary (who previously endorsed Robert Chisholm, who dropped out). Mulcair also lost an MP when Lise St-Denis crossed the floor to join the Liberal Party. Mulcair also got a big endorsement from Howard Hampton, former leader of the Ontario NDP.

Peggy Nash: Nash picked up two M.P. Endorsements in January, one from fellow Toronto MP, Mike Sullivan and one from Dany Morin.

Brian Topp: Topp just got one new MP endorsement in Chris Charlton.

Both Romeo Saganash and Martin Singh failed to get any endorsements in the month of January.

Since this is a geography blog, let's take a look at total political endorsements by province. By now, every province has at least one political endorsement for one of the candidates. The territories have none so far, but that could change as there is one MP from there, as well as a number of NDP MLAs in the Yukon, not to mention former leader Audrey McLaughlin.

British Columbia

B.C. Has the most amount of NDP members of any province, so who wins there will be a big factor in who becomes leader. The province has one candidate in the running, Nathan Cullen. However, he only sits in 2^nd place there- and has absolutely no endorsements in the rest of the country. BC is one of Brian Topp's best provinces, and he is heads and shoulder above everyone else:

Topp – 24

Cullen – 9

Mulcair – 7

Dewar – 2

Nash – 2

Ashton – 2

Alberta

Alberta has had just one endorsement so far. That is from their lone MP, Linda Duncan. She endorsed Paul Dewar, so he leads in that province.

Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan has the highest proportion of any NDPers in any province, but with no M.P.s, there have been few endorsements thus far. Topp, who used to work for the NDP there leads the way:

Topp – 4

Dewar – 1

Mulcair – 1

Manitoba

Manitoba continues to be a battle between Niki Ashton, who represents the province's Churchill riding, and Paul Dewar who has connections in the province. Ashton leads Dewar by one political endorsement- her own.

Ashton – 15

Dewar – 14

Mulcair – 1

Topp – 1

Nash – 1

Ontario

Ontario is a real battleground right now, with many politicians there supporting Mulcair, and two local M.P.s, Dewar and Nash. Mulcair and Dewar are currently tied for the lead at 8 endorsements.

Mulcair – 8

Dewar – 8

Nash – 6

Topp – 3

Ashton – 1

Quebec

Quebec has the most M.P.s, but not a very high membership so far. Mulcair leads the way with 29 endorsements in the province, far ahead of anyone else.

Mulcair – 29

Topp – 5

Nash – 3

Ashton – 3

Saganash – 2

New Brunswick

New Brunswick's only NDP MP, Yvon Godin endorsed Topp. However, provincial NDP leader Dominic Cardy endorsed Mulcair. As the party lacks any provincial seats, these two endorsements may be all there is unless someone like former provincial leader and MLA Elizabeth Weir makes an endorsement.

Nova Scotia

With Robert Chisholm out of the race, NDP MLAs in the province now have some choice, and so far Nash leads the way. In addition to former federal leader Alexa McDonough's endorsement, Nash has the endorsement of three MLAs.

Nash – 4

Topp – 2

Dewar – 1

Singh – 1

Prince Edward Island

The only NDP Islander to ever win a seat to the provincial assembly, Herb Dickeison endorsed Thomas Mulcair. It's the only endorsement from the province so far, and will probably be the only one.

Newfoundland and Labrador

Mulcair has two endorsements in the province. One from MP Ryan Cleary, and one from Dale Kirby, a Member of the provincial house of Assembly. Nash has the only other endorsement from the province, that of provincial NDP leader, Lorraine Michael.

Conclusion

If the NDP had primaries, like in the US- and if endorsements were indicative of member support (which it isn't, really), then this would clearly be a race up in the air. However, Mulcair would have the best shot. He currently leads in 3 provinces, and is tied in two others. Next is Topp, who leads in two and is tied in one. Then Dewar who leads in one, and is tied in another. Nash and Ashton both lead in one province each.

NDP leadership endorsement map - as of Dec 31

If the past is any indication, mapping the upcoming N.D.P. leadership race will be difficult to do. You see, the party has- at least not in recent memory ever produced any geographical breakdowns of their leadership races. This is quite unfortunate for the cartographically inclined, but I suppose it comes from the party not wanting to create any regional hostilities.

One thing we can map however, are the endorsements. The endorsements will give us a clue into how certain candidates will do in various areas. It is the next best thing to getting actual regional numbers. This is why I have created an endorsement map to show off where the regional strengths are for each of the eight candidates in the running. I do hope to keep updating the map; at least on a monthly basis until the March 24th convention in Toronto.

Revised 01/01/12

The map
On this map, I have coloured in some of the ridings, if the MP from that riding has endorsed a certain candidate. I have used symbols to indicate endorsements for other politicians, such as MLAs, past MPs and municipal politicians.

If endorsements give us any indication as to how well certain candidates are doing, then the race looks to be between Quebec MP Thomas Mulcair and former party president Brian Topp. That is what the media has kept saying as well. Mulcair's strength appears to be concentrated mostly in Quebec, which will be a problem for him if true. Quebec, despite having a majority of the NDPs MPs has few party members so far. The province has, at last count just 6000 members out of a nation wide total of 100,000. Topp also has some strength in Quebec, as well as in B.C., where he has a majority of the endorsements. He may also "win" Saskatchewan, where he used to work for the Romanow government there. If Topp wins both these provinces, he will be looking very good at winning. BC has the most NDP members out of any province, and Saskatchewan (despite having no NDP MPs) has the highest NDP memberships per capita out of any province.

Polling also suggests that Ontario MPs Peggy Nash and Paul Dewar will be strong contenders for the leadership. Neither have as many endorsements as Topp or Mulcair, however (Dewar has no MPs behind him, yet).  Nash has a smattering of support here and there. She has a few Quebec endorsements, and has secured every endorsement in her own riding (the local MPP and both city councillors), but nothing else in Ontario. She may do well in Atlantic Canada, thanks to key endorsements from former NDP leader Alex McDonough and Newfoundland and Labrador NDP leader Lorraine Michael. Atlantic Canada will be up for grabs now that former Nova Scotia MP Robert Chisholm has dropped out. While Dewar has no MPs endorse him yet, he has the support of many provincial legislators, mostly in Manitoba. He is doing a lot better there than in his home province, thanks to family connections in the province.

Also picking up quite a few endorsements is Manitoba MP Niki Ashton. She isn't considered a favourite for the race, but she will certainly be challenging Dewar for NDP votes in Manitoba where her father is a cabinet minister. She has also secured the endorsement of three Quebec MPs.

Challenging Topp's endorsement lead in BC is BC MP Nathan Cullen. While no MP has endorsed him, he has secured endorsements of a few provincial legislators. However, Cullen has no endorsements outside the province. Also with localized support is Quebec MP Romeo Saganash. He has the endorsement of two other Quebec MPs, including one from a neighbouring riding of his.

And last but least is Nova Scotia businessman Martin Singh. He has yet to receive any endorsements, but he is running a spirited campaign so far. I have heard that the is the only candidate to have opened campaign offices so far. One in Delta, BC and one in Malton, ON, close to large South Asian communities. (Singh is actually not South Asian, but a white Sikh convert). All the South Asian MLAs in BC seem to have endorsed Topp however, but one Sikh NDP provincial legislator (Jagmeet Singh, who represents Malton) hasn't made an endorsement yet. Also up for grabs for Sikh is a whole lot of Nova Scotia NDP MLAs.

NDP change (2008-2011)

A few days ago, I posted the Conservative change in vote support between the 2008 and 2011 federal elections. My second installment shows the NDP change in support between those two same elections. On the map, green indicates ridings where the NDP gained in vote percentage (darker shades meaning a greater increase in the vote), while red ridings are where the NDP lost in vote percentage (darker red meaning a greater decrease in the vote).

So, what can be said about this map? Well, a lot of green certainly, attributed to the NDP's breakthrough in the 2011 race. This is most notable in Quebec, where most of the province is a darker shade of green. In not one single riding in Quebec did they lose in support.

In Atlantic Canada, the NDP suffered some losses, and some gains. Overall, they gained two seats in the region. In Newfoundland & Labrador, the NDP saw support losses in 4 of the 7 ridings, but actually gained one seat (St. John's South--Mount Pearl). 2008 was a very bad year for the Tories on "the Rock", thanks to then Premier Danny Williams' "Anything But Conservative" campaign. As discussed on the last map, the Tories made gains here in 2011, and it came at the expense of the NDP in many seats.

Nova Scotia was the only other Atlantic province to see NDP losses in support in 2011. The NDP saw a decrease in vote in 6 of the 11 ridings. The NDP government of Nova Scotia is somewhat unpopular, which may have hurt them in the province. But just like in Newfoundland, the NDP actually gained a seat in the province (Dartmouth--Cole Harbour).

In Ontario, just two ridings had the NDP lose support. Both were in Northern Ontario. One seat's decrease (Sault Ste. Marie) contributed to the NDP losing it to the Tories. The other riding to see the NDP's share of the vote go down was in Timmins--James Bay, which the party still kept. The gun registry (many Northern Ontario NDP MPs flip flopped on this issue) must have hurt the party in those two ridings, despite "the Soo" being mostly urban. It should also be noted that the gun registry didn't seem to hurt the party in any of the other Northern Ontario ridings. The ridings that the NDP gained the most came in the Greater Toronto Area, thanks to strong local campaigns in Scarborough--Rouge River, Davenport and Bramalea--Gore--Malton (the latter where the NDP lost by a few hundred votes).

In Western Canada, the NDP only saw a loss of support in some seats in Manitoba and in Nunavut. In Manitoba, the party only saw losses in three of the 14 ridings, but it was good enough to lose one seat (actually down two from 2008). All three ridings were in the north end of Winnipeg. The NDP saw the biggest decrease from 2008 in the riding Winnipeg North. This long time NDP seat was lost in a by-election last year to the popular Liberal MLA Kevin Lamoureux in a close race. He held on to the seat once again in the 2011 election in another close battle. The NDP lost another stronghold in neighbouring Elmwood--Transcona, a seat they held for over 30 years. Much debate has arisen as to why the NDP lost these seats. My theory is an unpopular provincial NDP government (at the time), and perhaps demographic changes.

As mentioned, the NDP also lost support in Nunavut. This is probably because they ran a lesser known candidate in a region where the person is more important than the party. Elsewhere in the west, NDP increases were modest to strong, with the highest increase in the riding of Desnethe--Missinippi--Churchill River, where the NDP went from a distant third to losing by less than 1,000 votes. This was again due to running a popular candidate in Lawrence Joseph, the former Chief of the Federation of Saskatchewan Indians in a riding with a high Native population.

Once again, thank you to S. Smith of the U.S. Election Atlas Forum who made the map.