Scarborough--Rouge River by-election today

Another provincial by-election is being held this week, this time in Ontario, in the suburban Toronto riding of Scarborough—Rouge River, to fill a vacancy created last March when its provincial member of parliament, Bas Balkissoon unexpectedly resigned for mysterious reasons. Balkissoon, a member of the governing Liberal Party, had represented the riding since a by-election in 2005. The riding has a long history of voting for the Liberals; it has voted Liberal in every provincial election since 1985. However, recent election races in the riding have been fairly close, and the expectation is that this by-election will be too.

Scarborough—Rouge River is located in the northeast corner of Toronto, covering a number of very diverse neighbourhoods like Malvern and Agincourt North. It is named for the Rouge River, which runs through the east end of the riding. East of the Rouge River is Rouge Park, which covers about a quarter of the riding's area and surrounds the famous Toronto Zoo. The urban area of the riding is divided into two clusters, Malvern/Morningside Heights in the east and Agincourt/Millken in the west. These urban areas are further divided into sub-neighbourhoods.

Map of Scarborough--Rouge River's neighbourhoods

Demographics

Scarborough—Rouge River is noteworthy for its huge immigrant population. A full two-thirds of residents are immigrants, over half of which have immigrated to Canada since 1981. China and Sri Lanka are the biggest source of immigrants to the riding, but many immigrants have come from the Philippines, India and Hong Kong too. Only 5% of the residents are third or more generation Canadians.

While the riding is very diverse as whole, it is not just one big mixed bag; the two urban clusters have attracted immigrants from different sources. The western half of the riding (west of Markham Road) is heavily Chinese, while the eastern half of the riding is more diverse, but is dominated by a large South Asian population. All together, the riding is 33% South Asian, 31% Chinese, 11% Black and only 8% White – making it one of the least Caucasian ridings in the country. Another 8% of the riding is Filipino. English is still the mother tongue of a plurality of residents (40%), while Chinese is the first language of 27% and Tamil of 12%. 39% of the riding is Christian, with about half of that being Catholic. 21% of the riding is Hindu, the largest concentration of Hindus in any riding in the province. 9% of the riding is Muslim.

The riding is a bit poorer than the province as a whole. The median household income in the riding is $62,000 (provincial median is $66,000) while the median individual income is $21,000 (provincial median is $31,000). The largest industries are manufacturing, retail trade and health care and social assistance.

History

For most of its post-confederation history, this part of Scarborough was mostly farmland, and Malvern was but a village with a post office. From Confederation until 1955, all of Scarborough was located in the provincial riding of York East. At that point all of Scarborough became the riding of York—Scarborough until Scarborough's post war population growth necessitated that the riding be split up into small ridings in 1963. At that time, everything in Scarborough east of Markham Road became the riding of Scarborough East and everything west of Markham Road and north of Lawrence Avenue became Scarborough North. Over the next few decades, the north end of Scarborough began to grow, with development only finally slowing down in the 2000s.

Beginning at the 1975 election, all of the north end of Scarborough was united within a newly-shaped Scarborough North riding. Population growth made the riding smaller over the course of its history until the area became Scarborough—Rouge River in 1999 when provincial riding boundaries were made to match their federal counterparts. This means that in the next provincial election, most of the riding will be transferred to the new riding of Scarborough North, while the eastern half of Malvern will be moved to the new riding of Scarborough—Rouge Park. (On a side note, the arbitrary division of the Malvern community is quite unfortunate, considering that a better boundary could have been Markham Road, would have made not only a better “natural” border, but also marks the border of the two major ethnic communities in Scarborough's north end.) 

Scarborough--Rouge River MPP list

Scarborough North and Scarborough—Rouge River have been continuously represented by Liberals since 1985, with Alvin Curling representing the area until Balkissoon's by-election win in 2005. Before 1985, the area was a safe Tory seat, but the increasing number of immigrants moving into the area helped the Liberals take it and made it into a safe Liberal seat. The riding would remain a safe Liberal seat until both the NDP and Progressive Conservatives began making inroads into the minority communities. In 2011, NDP candidate and school trustee Neethan Shan, an immigrant from Sri Lanka, gave Balkissoon (himself an immigrant from Trinidad and Tobago) a run for his money, losing by just over 2000 votes. The 2014 election would become a three-way race with city councillor Raymond Cho (a Korean immigrant) running for the Tories against Balkissoon and Shan, who ran again. Fewer than 5,000 votes separated the first place Balkissoon and the third place Cho. With the Liberals moving to the left in their rhetoric in that election, it is possible many socially conservative immigrants were turned off of by the Liberals as the riding was only one of a few in the province that saw a swing from the Liberals to the PCs.

Political geography

Following the recent collapse of the Ontario Liberal Party's (and to a lesser extent, the federal Liberal Party) support among all immigrant groups in this riding, the Chinese western half and the South Asian eastern half of the riding have begun voting differently. Whether this has something to do with the party platforms or their respective candidates remains to be seen. However, patterns have emerged since 2011 showing that the Chinese population is increasingly voting for Conservative candidates, while the South Asian population has been increasingly voting NDP. The Liberals have still been able to get enough votes from both communities, and from the other minority groups in the riding (such as Filipinos and Caribbean Blacks) to still win the seat. In 2014, the only neighbourhood in the riding to vote PC (Port Royal) also happens to be the most Chinese neighbourhood in the riding, with 76% of the population there being of Chinese ancestry. Meanwhile, the neighbourhoods that voted NDP (Brookside, Dean Park, Morningside Heights) have the highest South Asian populations in the riding. The rest of the riding voted Liberal in 2014, to varying degrees, and is home to a more diverse population than the aforementioned neighbourhoods.

Partisan index map by neighbourhood

Just like in my Halifax Needham post from Tuesday, I also did a partisan voting index map for Scarborough--Rouge River. In each neighbourhood, I calculated the average difference in support between each of the three parties in the last two elections from the provincial average. This is slightly different than the calculations I did last time, as I had compared the Liberals to the NDP only (with the index showing the difference from an even two-way race), but this time I used three parties, so I couldn't do that, but it amounts to pretty much the same thing. Anyways, the map shows the NDP has done much better across the riding (especially in the east) compared to their province-wide numbers, while the Liberals are about even, while the Tories tend to under-perform throughout the riding. 

These ethnic voting patterns have been evident in recent federal elections as well. In the 2011 federal election, the western half of the riding went Conservative, while the eastern half overwhelmingly backed the NDP's Rathika Sitsabaiesan, a Sri Lankan Tamil, who ended up winning the seat with 41% of the vote. With the riding's South Asian community split into two ridings in 2015, Sitsabaiesan was forced to run in the more Chinese-dominated Scarborough North seat, where she finished in a distant third behind the Liberal's Shaun Chen and the Conservative's Ravinder Malhi. The rest of the riding became part of the new riding Scarborough—Rouge Park which the Liberals easily won with their candidate, another Sri Lankan Tamil, Gary Anandasangaree. Did the 2015 election show that immigrants had come back to the Liberal fold? Perhaps, but only time will tell. What is clear is that South Asians appear more receptive to the Liberal Party than Chinese Canadians who are more divided in their voting allegiances. 

Results by neighbourhood in the 2011 and 2014 provincial elections

Outlook

While the federal Liberals remain hugely popular in Ontario, their provincial counterparts are polling very poorly, and are well behind the leading Tories. The Liberals have now been in power for 13 years, and have endured scandal after scandal after scandal. While poor inter-election poll results is nothing new for the Liberals, they are especially at a low point – the most recent Forum Research poll from August indicating they are now 13 points behind the Tories. And one issue that is hurting them, especially with socially conservative immigrant voters is the liberalization of the province's sex ed curriculum. Popular among progressives in the province, it has been more religious, especially immigrant voters who have been the most opposed to it. One would think that this would help the Tories, considering their new leader, Patrick Brown was elected with the backing socially conservative immigrant groups. Earlier in the year he vowed to overturn the new curriculum if elected as Premier, but he has since backpedalled and has now indicated that he won't be overturning the law, a move that will not help him win a riding that is overwhelmingly immigrant.

Two polls released on the eve of the election from Mainstreet Research and Forum Research have shown that we are indeed headed for a close race. Mainstreet's poll shows the Tories have a 5 point lead over the Liberals, while Forum's poll shows a tie between the two parties. Perhaps unexpectedly, both polls show the NDP well behind in third place, despite the party finishing second in both of the last provincial candidates. One thing to keep in mind is that it is incredibly difficult to poll ridings with a large immigrant population. I saw this constantly in my polling work at EKOS in the last election, and Scarborough North (the new federal riding overlapping Scarborough—Rouge River) was no exception. Impressively, Mainstreet's poll was conducted in Cantonese, Mandarin and Tamil (in addition to English), and was even weighted by ethnic group. The details of the Forum poll were not published, but I personally doubt they went to the extent Mainstreet did. As a pollster, I am particularly curious to see how well Mainstreet's poll does, considering the methodology they used. Will the data be more accurate, or was it all an exercise in futility in an impossible-to-poll riding?

Two names on the ballot will be the same as in the 2014 election. City councillor Raymond Cho will once again be the PC candidate. Cho actually represents the eastern half of the riding on city council, and has been involved in municipal politics since 1991. Cho was once a New Democrat, having run for the NDP in the 1988 federal election. Cho later became a Liberal, and ran as an “Independent Liberal” in the 2004 federal election, which upset the party. He then joined the Progressive Conservatives and ran in 2014. The NDP candidate is once again Neethan Shan, who was recently elected to represent the riding as a school trustee for the Toronto District School Board. This will be his third attempt to win the seat, after having come second in 2011 and 2014. This election will be Shan's 10^th electoral contest of his life. He was first elected as a school trustee in Markham in 2006 after losing in his first attempt in 2003. He then ran for the NDP in Scarborough—Guildwood in 2007, then for Toronto city council in 2010 and 2014, losing both times to Cho. Fast forward to last January when Shan was elected as a trustee in an unnecessary, low turnout by-election (as all school board elections are!). One thing that might be hurting his poll numbers is that he may be seen as an opportunist- and who wants to vote in another school board by-election if he wins? As for the Liberals, their candidate is Piragal Thiru who is described as a “Liberal activist”, and is a refugee from Sri Lanka. He won the Liberal nomination by defeating the riding's former MP, Rathika Sitsabaiesan who had switched parties from the NDP. With two Sri Lankans in the race, it is entirely possible their vote will be split enough to allow the Tories to win the seat, which I believe is the most likely scenario (but, hey- I was wrong about Tuesday's race in Halifax!).

There are five other candidates in the race. The Greens, who never do very well here, are running administrator Priyan De Silva. There are also Freedom and Libertarian Party candidates, a “None of the Above” candidate who is running as “Above Znoneofthe” (presumably to ensure they are last on the ballot) and an independent candidate, Queenie Yu, who running almost exclusively to repeal the changes made to the Sex Ed curriculum.

We'll see if I'm right about the Tories picking this seat up when polls close at 9:00pm.

Labrador by-election

Hidden amongst the British Columbia election coverage is another election of significance on the other side of the country. The federal riding of Labrador, voters will be going to the polls today to elect a new MP (or to re-elect the same one). You see, back in March the sitting MP and Minister of Intergovernmental Affairs, Conservative Peter Penashue, resigned his seat due to conflict of interest allegations and election campaign irregularities associated with his election in 2011. However, Penashue resigned under the condition he could run again, so he could win the seat fair and square.

Map of Labrador showing municipalities and unincorporated communities and unorganized areas.

The 2011 election Labrador was one of the closest races in the country. Penashue defeated the sitting incumbent, Liberal Todd Russell by just 74 votes. Penashue's election was a huge surprise, considering the fact that Labrador was one of the safest Liberal seats in the country. It had only elected a Tory once (in 1968) since Newfoundland joined confederation in 1949. Plus, the Russell had won the seat in 2008 with 70% of the vote, while the Tory candidate finished third with just 8%. Penashue's election thus came with a swing of a massive 31.5% from the Liberals to Conservatives.

At just 27,000 people, Labrador is the least populated riding in Canada. It is even less populated then any of Canada's three territories. Its existence as a riding is protected by extraordinary circumstances clause in the redistribution act which allows for ridings to exceed provincial averages if it is deemed as an extraordinary riding. Labrador is seen as a cohesive unit in of itself, and is very isolated from the rest of the province of Newfoundland and Labrador. However, the riding was not always deemed extraordinary. It has only existed as a riding consisting of itself since 1988. Before that it was lumped with part of the Island of Newfoundland and was known as “Grand Falls—White Bay—Labrador” from 1953 to 1988. Before that, the word “Labrador” wasn't even in the riding name, and the riding was named just “Grand Falls—White Bay”.

Former Members of Parliament:

1. T.G.W. Ashbourne, Liberal (1949-1958)
2. C.R.M. Granger, Liberal (1958-1966)
3. Andrew Chatwood, Liberal (1966-1968)
4. A.H. Peddle, Prog. Cons. (1968-1972)
5. W.H. Rompkey, Liberal (1972-1996)
6. L.D. O'Brien, Liberal (1996-2005)
7. T.N. Russell, Liberal (2005-2011)
8. Peter Penashue, Conservative (2011-2013)

For most of its history, the riding has mostly experienced Liberal blowouts (1949, 1953, 1957, 1958, 1962, 1963, 1966, 1974, 1980, 1993, 2000, 2004 and 2008) and the occasionally semi competitive races that turned out to be fool's gold for the Tories (1972, 1984, 1988, 1996 by-election with the Reform Party, 2005 by-election and 2006). The NDP has had some history in this riding to, due to the mining industry in Labrador City. The party nearly won the seat in 1979, and had a strong campaign in 1997. The NDP has held the riding of Labrador West provincially in the past.

Political geography

Despite its remoteness, Labrador is a rather diverse riding. Along the south coast on the Strait of Belle Isle, there are a number of Anglo-Irish fishing villages that are more similar to the rest of Newfoundland than the rest of Labrador. Further north along the coast you have more fishing villages, but the people there are a mix of Metis, Inuit and Anglo descent. Then you have the two largest cities in Labrador; the mining city of Labrador City in the far west (and its suburb of Wabush) and the more military oriented city of Happy Valley-Goose Bay (home to CFB Goose Bay). North of Happy Valley Goose Bay is the Innu village of Sheshatshiu where Penashue is from. Sheshatshiu is one of two Innu villages in the riding, the other is Natuashish, and is located on the coast, further north. Finally, northeastern Labrador is home of the Inuit territory of Nunatsiavut, which is a self governing autonomous area made up of five Inuit villages.

One of the most Liberal parts of the county is the Southern and Eastern Labrador coast where the Liberals often get results of more than 90% of the vote in many polls. I have a feeling that in the past that some polls have had results of 100% for the Liberals, but were merged with other polls to protect voter secrecy. While the south and east coasts are made up of extremely partisan Liberals, other parts of the riding are very non-partisan. This is especially true for the Inuit and Innu. These groups tend to support the candidate over the party (and it's not just Labrador where they do this). Penashue, an Innu, can thank his 74 vote victory to massive margins in the two Innu villages of the riding. Without them, he would have lost. Voters in Labrador City and Happy Valley-Goose Bay also tend to back the candidate over the party. Neither region has uniformly voted Liberal the way the coastal villages have. When the Tories have run good campaigns in the riding, it is usually in these two cities where they find much support.

Let's take a look at the poll maps since 2004 for a better look of the riding's political geography:

2004

2004 was a landslide victory for the Liberals in Labrador. The party won every single poll in the riding, which is not abnormal for the riding. Incumbent MP Lawrence O'Brien won 62% of the vote, compared to the Conservative candidate, Merrill Strachan who won 10% of the vote. Former New Democrat Ern Condon ran as an independent, but representing the “Labrador Party” and finished ahead of the NDP at 10%. The NDP candidate Shawn Crann won just under 10% and the Greens won 2%. O'Brien's strongest area was the traditionally Liberal east and south coast of Labrador. His best poll came in the village of Lodge Bay in this region where he won 34 of 35 votes. His weakest region was in West Labrador, where the Tories, NDP and Condon all had strong showings. But the split of the vote between Strachan, Condon and Crann meant that O'Brien still won all the polls there. His worst showing was poll 27 in Wabush, which is in the west part of town on Jean Lake. He still won 33% of the vote there. Condon finished 2^nd there with 28% of the vote.

2005 by-election

O'Brien passed away in December 2004, resulting in a by-election in May 2005 (there was also a by-election in 1996 which first elected O'Brien, meaning there will have been 3 by-elections in just 17 years!). It was the first by-election of Paul Martin's fragile minority government, and would be very important in terms of the balance of power in Parliament. Therefore, the Tories poured a lot of effort into the riding in hopes they would win it. However, most observers thought it was a hopeless cause because of the riding's Liberal history. The Tories ended up losing the election, with 32% of the vote, but it would be their best showing since 1988. Liberal candidate, Todd Russell, President of the Labrador Metis Nation won with 51%. It was the worst showing for the Liberals since 1997. Russell saw his best showing on the east coast as usual, especially in the Metis dominated fishing villages. West Labrador was again the Liberal's worst area, and this time they lost nearly all the polls in the region. The Conservative candidate in the riding was Graham Letto, who was the mayor of Labrador City at the time. This really helped him win the region, but was not enough to help him outside. He only won 5 polls outside of the Labrador City-Wabush area. One of these polls however was the best poll for Letto, poll 34 in Happy Valley-Goose Bay. This poll is located on CFB Goose Bay. Russell's top poll was the Metis village of Port Hope Simpson, a poll which also included the smaller village of William's Harbour, where Russell was born.

2006

With their impressive showing in the 2005 by-election, the Tories kept up the pressure in 2006 with another strong campaign. They ran a star candidate in Joe Goudie, a former provincial cabinet minister, and another high profile Metis to go up against Russell. Russell however beat Goudie, but in a closer race than the by-election. Russell maintained his 51% share of the vote, but Goudie made inroads on the Tory by-election result, by getting the party up to 40%. Goudie was able to get this number by making in roads in the Happy Valley-Goose Bay area, where he was from. However, the Tories continue to do the best in West Labrador where they won all but two polls. However, Goudie lost all of the northern Aboriginal communities and the communities on the east and south coast which was the best area for the Liberals again. The village of Pinsent Arm in this region gave Russell his best poll, where he secured 40 of 42 votes. The strongest poll for Goudie was in in poll 34 in Happy Valley-Goose Bay, the same poll where the Tories saw their strongest showing in the by-election.

2008

By 2008, the Tories had given up on trying to win Labrador, as the riding reverted to its landslide-Liberal status. Russell won his largest share of the vote in his career, getting 70%. The Conservatives could not find a local candidate to run, and so had to pick an Office Assistant from St. John's to run. The NDP would end up finishing 2^nd in the race, despite them also running a candidate from St. John's. Even so, the NDP won 18% of the vote as the default anti-Liberal party in a region that hated the Tories thanks to Premier Danny Williams' ABC (Anything But Conservative) campaign. It would be the NDP's best showing in Labrador since 1997, and the Conservative's worst showing (8%) since that same election. Once again, the Liberals would win every single poll in the riding. Similar voting patterns persisted with the Liberals doing the best in the east, and worst in the west. However, the Liberals would score a majority of the vote in all but 2 polls (both in Labrador City). Their worst showing was in poll 23 in the south end of town on the western end of Little Wabush Lake. Russell won 44% of the vote. The NDP finished 2^nd there, losing the poll by 5 votes. The strongest Liberal poll was in Lodge Bay again where Russell secured 37 of 38 votes. Lodge Bay was also the best poll for the Liberals the last time they won every poll in the riding in 2004.

2011

2011 threw a wrench in the normal voting patterns of Labrador. The race would end up being the closest in the riding's history. Innu businessman Peter Penashue won the seat for the Conservatives for the first time since 1968. He won the seat with 39.8% of the vote to Russell's 39.1%. It would be the worst showing ever for the Liberals in the riding. The NDP also had a strong performance running school principal Jake Larkin. He won 20% of the vote, the party's best showing since 1997. Also, the NDP won a number of polls, the first time they would win a poll since 1997. Liberal support was relegated to their traditional base in the riding, in the east and south coasts. Outside this region, they had only won 5 polls. Conservative support was strongest in the Inuit and Innu communities in the northern part of the riding. Also key to Penashue's victory was winning all but 4 polls in the Happy Valley-Goose Bay area. The NDP were only present in West Labrador, where they won all but seven polls, and tied in two of those seven. The strongest poll for the Conservatives was Penashue's home town of Sheshasheits where he won 89% of the vote. The strongest Liberal poll this time was the Metis village of Charlottetown on the east coast where Russell won 86% of the vote. The NDP's strongest poll was poll 14 in central Labrador City (between Stirling Cres and Field St) where they won 47% of the vote.

Demographic maps

Last Wednesday, Statistics Canada released the first wave of results of the 2011 National Household Survey (NHS), also known as the “long form census”. Among the data released was religion and ethnicity, and I figured those two categories would be the most interesting in terms of mapping Labrador. It should be noted that the NHS was not mandatory like in previous censuses, so there are concerns about the accuracy of the data. In fact, some communities had such a low response rate, that their data was not even released by Statistics Canada. In Labrador, these communities include Division No. 10, Subd. D (Churchill Falls), L'Anse au Loup, Wabush and West St. Modeste.

Ethnicity

As mentioned, Labrador is a rather ethnically diverse riding. The south coast, along the Strait of Belle Isle is home to communities with high percentages of people of English, Irish and “Canadian” backgrounds. This is true from L'Anse au Clair on the Quebec border until the village of Mary's Harbour. Then you get into Metis territory. From the next town, St. Lewis until Charlottetown is Metis territory. Metis in this area usually refers to people of partial Inuit heritage. Once you cross Hamilton Inlet, you get into full on Inuit territory, in the region of Nunatsiavut. There are six coastal communities north of Hamilton Inlet. Five are Inuit in Nunatsiavut and the sixth, Natuashish is a First Nation (Innu) community. Further inland and the head of Hamilton Inlet is the Happy Valley-Goose Bay area. The leading ethnicity in the region is Inuit, although in Happy Valley-Goose Bay proper it is only a plurality. “Canadian” and English were also leading ethnicities in Happy Valley-Goose Bay. The village of Sheshatshiu is the lone community in the area without Inuit being the leading ethnicity, as it is a First Nations (Innu) community. West of Happy Valley-Goose Bay, only Labrador City has proper data. In Labrador City, the leading ethnicity was “Canadian”, followed by English and Irish.

Religion

Labrador is as religiously diverse as it is ethnically, that is when it comes to Christian denominations. Labrador is overwhelmingly Christian, with 93% of inhabitants reporting as one form of Christianity or another. For the most part, in Labrador what denomination one is depends on what community they live in. While an area may be ethnically homogenous, it may not be in regards to religion. For example, the Inuit-Metis east coast is home to Anglican, Pentecostal or Catholic communities. The Anglo-Irish cosat coast is home to Anglican and Catholic communities as well as a couple of villages with no dominant denomination. The Happy Valley-Goose Bay area is diverse as well. Anglicanism is the leading denomination in Happy Valley-Goose Bay, but it is also home to many Catholics and Uniteds. Labrador City is also diverse. Catholicism is the leading denomination, but there are many Uniteds, Anglicans and Pentecostals as well. Three of the five Inuit villages saw “Other Christian” as their leading denomination. This actually refers to Moravians, as those villages had been founded by Moravian missionaries in the 18^th Century. The other two Inuit villages are not Moravian however, one is Pentecostal and the other is Anglican. If there is one ethnic group in Labrador that is religiously homogenous, it is the Innu who are very, very Catholic according to the NHS. Both Innu villages are about 87% Catholic.

The election

Even though the 2011 election in Labrador was so close, the 2013 by-election will not be a rematch between Russell and Penashue. Instead, the Liberals are running Yvonne Jones as their candidate. Jones is the former leader of the Newfoundland and Labrador Liberal Party, and represented the riding of Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair in the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly from 1996 to 2013. That provincial riding takes in the east and south coast of Labrador, the strongest Liberal part of the riding. The NDP have also chosen a new candidate in Harry Borlase, an analyst from Happy Valley-Goose Bay. The Greens, who have never got more than 4% in the riding will not be fielding a candidate, as they do not wish to split the anti-Conservative vote. However, the Libertarians will be running a candidate for the first time ever in Labrador.

Because of the closeness of the last election, one might expect this by-election to be close as well. However, a number of factors are at work. First of all, Penashue- whether innocent or not, has been disgraced, and his reputation has been tarnished. That is as good as any excuse for voters not to back him. Secondly, we are at the beginning of a new “Trudeaumania” in Canada, with the Liberals surging to the top of the polls since their election of Justin Trudeau as leader. Labrador, a traditional Liberal riding has no reason to be not immune from this surge. Thirdly, the Liberals are running a pretty high profile candidate in Yvonne Jones. Only problem for her is that there is little growth to be had in her already Liberal saturated stomping grounds in Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair. And of course, polls are showing another Liberal landslide in the riding. The most recent Forum Research poll released yesterday put the Liberals at 45% (down from 60% in a previous poll), the Tories at 31% (up from 29%) and the NDP at 24% (Up from 10%). Given all these factors, I am pretty confident Jones will win.

Polls close at 8pm Atlantic (8:30 Newfoundland time) or 7pm Eastern. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter for live commentary!