Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Ontario election 2011 prediction (September 13)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith.
Four more polls have been released since my last prediction on September 2. What they are beginning to show is that the Liberals have now overtaken the Tories for top spot in the province. Usually when the Liberals gain in the polls, it comes at the expense of the NDP, but the NDP and the Tories are holding firm in their numbers, and the Liberal gain appears to come from a collapse in the Green vote.

This projection will only look at the two most recent polls taken this past weekend. One by Nanos Research and one by Ipsos Reid:



Nanos
Ipsos-Reid
Avg
Change
Liberal
38 (+6)
38 (+2)
38
(+8)
PC
35 (-1)
37 (-1)
36
n/c
NDP
24 (+1)
24 (+1)
24
-1
Greens
3 (-1)
1 (-2)
2
-5

The change is from their most recent polls, Nanos just 2 weeks ago (Aug 30-Sept 1) while the Ipsos-Reid poll change is from their last poll, six weeks ago. The Avg is the number used for my projection, while the change is from the numbers used in my last projection on September 2.

The public appears to be scared of the possibility of Hudak government, but NDP supporters seem enthusiastic about the party's high poll numbers not to jump ship. The non existent Green campaign has therefore resulted in their voters fleeing to the Liberals. Or so I can only guess! The current Liberal surge comes as a bit of a surprise to me, but then again, McGuinty pulled it off in 2007.

As mentioned, I skipped two polls from 2 weeks ago. One was a Nanos poll, and one was by Harris Decimawhich showed an unbelievable 11 point lead for the Liberals. Methinks it's an outlier.


Seat by seat projection

Riding
Lib
PC
NDP
Grn
Projected winner
Ajax—Pickering
46
38
13
3
Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin
40
16
42
2
Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
37
43
17
3
Donna Skelly
Barrie
29
48
19
4
Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York
25
18
50
7
Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton
44
28
27
1
Kuldip Kular
Brampton West
45
39
15
1
Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale
45
35
18
2
Linda Jeffrey
Brant
45
33
21
1
Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
30
48
15
7
Bill Walker
Burlington
33
47
18
2
Jane McKenna
Cambridge
28
46
24
2
Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills
37
48
13
2
Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex
31
44
23
2
Rick Nicholls
Davenport
38
12
48
2
Jonah Schein
Don Valley East
46
30
23
1
Michael Coteau
Don Valley West
49
39
9
3
Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon
27
50
11
12
Sylvia Jones
Durham
30
48
19
3
John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence
53
37
9
1
Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London
29
48
22
1
Jeff Yurek
Essex
27
39
33
1
Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre
50
36
13
1
Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North
51
26
22
1
Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
44
35
18
3
Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
40
44
14
2
Marlissa Gosselin
Guelph
48
29
15
8
Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk
24
60
15
1
Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
37
47
13
3
Laurie Scott
Halton
37
47
15
1
Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre
26
19
51
4
Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
29
29
41
1
Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain
33
28
38
1
Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce
42
36
21
1
Carol Mitchell
Kenora—Rainy River
32
30
37
1
Sarah Campbell
Kingston and the Islands
47
30
21
2
John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre
45
33
20
2
John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga
38
42
18
2
Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo
32
47
18
3
Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
42
39
18
1
Maria Van Bommel
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
35
43
19
3
Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville
27
55
15
3
Steve Clark
London North Centre
44
29
23
4
Deb Matthews
London West
49
32
18
1
Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe
38
30
31
1
Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville
50
30
19
1
Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville
50
33
16
1
Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South
47
41
11
1
Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South
46
37
16
1
Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale
45
39
15
1
Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville
47
37
14
2
Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton
33
49
14
4
Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora
37
47
13
3
Frank Klees
Niagara Falls
45
36
17
2
Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook
24
55
19
2
Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt
28
20
51
1
France Gelinas
Nipissing
37
46
16
1
Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West
42
37
19
2
Lou Rinaldi
Oak Ridges—Markham
41
43
15
1
Farid Wassef
Oakville
46
40
12
2
Kevin Flynn
Oshawa
20
43
36
1
Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre
34
21
40
5
Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South
49
31
17
3
Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean
44
37
17
2
Bob Chiarelli
Ottawa—Orleans
49
37
12
1
Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier
48
23
25
4
Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford
27
52
19
2
Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park
29
15
52
4
Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka
22
49
22
7
Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington
43
40
14
3
John Wilkinson
Peterborough
44
30
24
2
Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East
47
34
17
2
Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings
40
38
21
1
Leona Dombrowsky
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
21
66
12
1
John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill
45
38
15
2
Reza Moridi
St. Catharines
44
35
19
2
Jim Bradley
St. Paul's
46
29
20
5
Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton
26
46
27
1
Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie
54
17
28
1
David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre
45
29
25
1
Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest
42
24
32
2
Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt
53
28
18
1
Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood
43
31
25
1
Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River
48
22
29
1
Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North
27
53
16
4
Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey
24
55
14
7
Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
31
52
16
1
Jim McDonnell
Sudbury
52
15
32
1
Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill
36
53
10
1
Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
33
24
42
1
Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North
44
13
42
1
Michael Gravelle
Timikaming—Cochrane
36
18
45
1
John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay
30
23
46
1
Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre
47
21
27
5
Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth
29
12
53
6
Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina
35
15
46
4
Rasario Marchese
Vaughan
54
34
11
1
Greg Sorbara
Welland
27
33
39
1
Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills
29
56
11
4
Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa
28
49
20
3
Christine Elliott
Willowdale
46
37
15
2
David Zimmer
Windsor West
27
25
47
1
Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh
45
25
29
1
Dwight Duncan
York Centre
44
41
14
1
Monte Kwinter
York South—Weston
42
15
42
1
Paul Ferriera or Laura Albanese
York West
54
17
28
1
Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe
27
53
17
3
Julia Munro

Seat changes since last projection
I'd like to firstly thank those who emailed me or commented on my last blog post, their thoughts on a few ridings. I have incorporated many of your observations. One riding (Glengarry—Prescott—Russell) flipped from the Liberals to the Tories because of one such email I received. Keep them coming!

All of the other riding changes benefited the Liberals. This projection shows them gaining 18 seats (a net of 17): Ajax—Pickering, Brampton West, Brampton—Springdale, Brant, Etobicoke—Lakeshore, Huron—Bruce, London—Fanshawe, Mississauga South, Mississauga—Brampton South, Mississauga—Erindale, Niagara Falls, Northumberland—Quinte West, Oakville, Ottawa West—Nepean, Ottawa—Orleans, Richmond Hill, Scarborough Southwest and Willowdale. All were too close to call in my last projection. The Tories meanwhile have lost Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Oak Ridges—Markham and Prince Edward—Hastings to “too close to call”, while the NDP has lost Algoma—Manitoulin, Thunder Bay—Superior North and York South—Weston also to “too close to call”.

Conclusion
Despite a narrow lead in the polls, the Liberals are on the cusp of a majority government. The projection shows them winning 53 seats (with 5 of those too close to call). The are tied with the NDP in one seat (York South—Weston). If they were to win that tied seat, they would get the majority needed of 54. The Liberal maximum however is at just 56- a narrow majority. That's if they win Algoma—Manitoulin and Oak Ridges—Markham which are both too close to call, but are leaning to the NDP and the Tories respectively.

The huge seat change can be attributed to the large number of seats which are within a close range of each other. A small swing in the vote in favour of the Liberals benefited them greatly in the projection. However, the seat change came mostly from previously too close to call races, and therefore did not eat into the core Tory and NDP seats much. 



Methodology/disclaimer

I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.

10 comments:

  1. I'm not sure why you have York South-Weston as a tie. It went Liberal over NDP by less than 1% in 2007 and the current poll average suggests that NDP support is up about 7% and Liberal support down about 4% since the '07 election. That seat ought to be a pretty easy pick-up even if the NDP has a bad night.

    BTW: I think with the Tory drop - don't be surprised if Essex goes NDP. You heard it here... :-)

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  2. Well, I think there may be a cap on the NDP vote there, as the party only got 40% in the federal election. It's hard to say how much better Ferreira is polling ahead of Mike Sullivan.

    The problem for the NDP is that most of their races are with the Liberals, so even if they hold their own, a gaining Liberal Party is bad news. A shrinking Tory party is only good for Essex, maybe Oshawa, maybe Sarnia-Lambton and of course for keeping Welland. Kenora-Rainy River may be an NDP-Tory race as well, but that one is hard to predict.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Now there's a Toronto only poll of 1,000 by Forum that has the Liberals at 39% (down 6% from 2007), NDP at 30% (up 8% from 2007) and PCs flat like a pancake at 24%. I think that with swings of this magnitude the NDP need only hold up a catcher's mitt to grab Davenport and YSW - the question is what are the next opportunities - especially since the Liberals are not collapsing in Toronto to quite the extent they were in the federal election. I think Scarborough-RR has to be considered a total wild card and after that the other longshot potential pickups NDP picks up in Toronto if they actually do achieve a 14 point Liberal to NDP swing would be Scarborough SW, Toronto Centre and York West.

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  4. Oh wow, I will definitely have to take a look at that poll for my next projection. I hope you noticed I gave a bump in the NDP numbers in Scarborough-RR. Obviously the ridings in Scarborough, as well as Don Valley East and maybe even York West are targets for the party

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  5. I don't quite understand the increase in Liberal support in the Northern Ontario ridings. The one survey that did poll Northern Support had a very small sample size. Dalton McGuinty just said that he will not participate in a Nothern Ontario Debate (Horwath and Hudak both want one), on top of announcing his Northern platform in North Toronto, not to mention the loss of jobs the Liberals have caused Northern Ontario (North Bay Go Train Refurbs, Timmins Xstrata, etc). I think the only riding that will stay Liberal is Sudbury, and even that is a closer race with the NDP that you seem to suggest.

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  6. I should also mention that Sudbury was the one Northern Ontario riding that people thought would stay Liberal during the Northern Ontario NDP sweep of the 2008 Federal Canadian Election, where Glenn Thibeault beat long-time, and well-liked, Liberal incumbent Diane Marleau (similarities to Bartolucci anyone?)

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  7. Sudbury is a definite possible NDP pick up. Not so sure about the Sault after seeing the federal election. I will have to keep my eyes open to both those seats though. Thanks for your feedback!

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  8. I think progressive minded citizens have to make their votes count...so be strategic...anyone but a republican tea-party supporting conservative will do for the betterment of our Ontario. The conservatives are creating a two class society evident in the recent analysis of data coming to us from our neighbors to the south. Under a Liberal gov't our educational system has become one of the top in North America, they managed to aid the auto industry's recovery, and continue to lead the nations strongest economy. The conservatives would enact anti-labour legislation and only drive the corporate agenda forward with disregard to the average working and middle class families in our province. The corporations don't need any more power than they already wield in our nation. We need a counter vailing presence to their unilateral position of omnipotence...if your not rich...dont vote against yourself...dont be swindled by the progaganda of channel 15 and fox news north....
    fv

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  9. You need to adjust Bruce Grey Owen Sound in some fashion because the Independent candidate Shane Jolley garnered 33% of the vote as the Green last time. I don't think that he will be getting zero.

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  10. I have made a more recent prediction than this. Please read it.

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