Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Newfoundland and Labrador 2011 election prediction (Sept. 20)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

A second poll has come out during the Newfoundland and Labrador election campaign, and it shows the beginnings of an NDP surge in the province, but with the Tories still firmly in landslide majority status.

A poll done my MQO Research this past weekend has the Tories still with a majority of popular support at 53%, the NDP firmly in second now at 29% and the Liberals trailing in third at 18%. The last poll (conducted by Corporate Research Associates) we saw from August, had the numbers at 54-24-22.

Unfortunately there are no regional breakdowns for any of these polls, and considering Newfoundland is such a diverse province geographically, I can only make guesses with my projection. I suspect much of the NDP surge is coming from the St. John's area, where they hold both federal seats. This is the same area where the Tories won massive majorities in the last provincial election in 2007. Even with the NDP polling much higher, these numbers will be hard for them to overcome. I'm not too familiar campaigns there, but if things are looking good for the NDP, the party can make some pick ups.They do have some strong candidates.

Riding by riding projections:

Riding PC Lib NDP Winning candidate
Baie Verte-Springdale 39 40 21 Neil Ward
Bay of Islands 44
13 Terry Loder
Bellevue 39
23 Calvin Peach
Bonavista North 51 27 22 Eli Cross
Bonavista South 77 9 14 Glen Little
Burgeo-La Poile 31 58 11 Andrew Parsons
Burin-Placentia West
5 49 Julie Mitchell
Cape St. Francis 58 8 34 Kevin Parsons
Carbonear-Harbour Grace 58 15 27 Jerome Kennedy
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair 17 70 13 Yvonne Jones
Conception Bay East-Bell Island 53 10 37 David Brazil
Conception Bay South 61 12 27 Terry French
Exploits 53 23 24 Clayton Forsey
Ferryland 67 5 28 Keith Hutchings
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune 46 32 22 Tracey Perry
Gander 52 19 29 Kevin O'Brien
Grand Bank 61 16 23 Darin King
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans 52 3 45 Susan Sullivan
Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South 55 23 22 Ray Hunter
Harbour Main 65 7 28 Tom Hedderson
Humber East 67 7 26 Tom Marshall
Humber Valley 41 52 7 Dwight Ball
Humber West 47 30 23 Vaughn Granter
Kilbride 73 4 23 John Dinn
Labrador West 33 4 63 Tom Harris
Lake Melville 40 37 23 Keith Russell
Lewisporte 54 13 33 Wade Verge
Mount Pearl North 65 4 31 Steve Kent
Mount Pearl South 65 4 31 Paul Lane
Placentia-St. Mary's 62 17 21 Felix Collins
Port au Port 64 13 23 Tony Cornect
Port de Grave 30 47 23 Leanne Hussey
Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi 26 2 72 Lorraine Michael
St. Barbe 41 41 18 Wallace Young or Jim Bennett
St. George's-Stephenville East 34 43 23 Joan Burke
St. John's Centre 55 4 41 Shawn Skinner
St. John's East 51 6 43 Ed Buckingham
St. John's North 58 6 36 Bob Ridgley
St. John's South 59 4 38 Tom Osborne
St. John's West 55 12 33 Dan Crummell
Terra Nova 57 13 29 Sandy Collins
The Isles of Notre Dame 42 48 10 Danny Dumaresque
The Straits-White Bay North 25 50 25 Marshall Dean
Topsail 61 3 36 Paul Davis
Torngat Mountains 47 40 13 Patty Pottle
Trinity-Bay de Verde 55 19 26 Charlene Johnson
Trinity North 65 9 26 Rose Wiseman
Virginia Waters 59 4 37 Kathy Dunderdale

Not much has changed in this projection, despite the new NDP surge. The NDP support is not concentrated heavily enough in any seats to help them win many more, but we must keep a close eye on the St. John's area. So far, I only have them picking up Burin-Placentia West from the Tories, but it's still in the toss up zone. However, they are inching closer in some St. John's seats. The Liberals meanwhile would still form official opposition thanks to concentrated strengths in a number of seats. In this projection they have lost Bellevue and Bay of Islands, and there is now a tie in St. Barbe. All of these seats are still in the toss up zone, and aren't reflected as changes in the below chart. The only change there was the Torngat Mountains which have been removed from the toss up category and put into the Tory one.

For those keeping track, the NDP would need to win six more seats to get opposition status. They would have to gain St. John's East, St. John's Centre, Lake Melville, Grand-Falls-Windsor-Buchans, Conception Bay East-Bell Island and Bellevue. And that would still require a 10 point swing! However, with very little knowledge at this point, anything can happen.

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