Thursday, August 11, 2011

Saskatchewan 2011 election prediction (August edition)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith
There has finally been a poll released in Saskatchewan for their provincial election which will be held in November. My last projection was based on a poll from last November. Insightrix Research released a poll yesterday for the first time since April 2010. The poll conducted in November was by Sigma. Anyways, not much has changed since the poll in November, the right wing Saskatchewan Party still holds a massive lead over the NDP:

Saskatchewan Party: 58%
New Democratic Party: 31%
Green Party: 5%
Liberal Party: 4%

Yes, that's right. The Liberals are behind the Green Party, perhaps due to their falling to third party status in the Canadian House of Commons.These results are not much different from November, where the Saskatchewan Party is up one point, the NDP up 2 points, the Greens are even and the Liberals are down 4 points.

Just like for Ontario, I hope to do riding by riding projections for the other provinces holding elections this fall. They will be less accurate, as my local knowledge for other provinces is limited, and there is less discussion out there about other provincial races. However, I will try and do my best. Once again, comments would be appreciated.


Riding SP NDP Lib Grn Projected winning candidate
Arm River-Watrous 65 23 7 5 Greg Brkich
Athabasca
39
53 2 6 Buckley Belanger
Batoche 65
29
3 4 Delbert Kirsch
Biggar 64
28
2 6 Randy Weekes
Cannington 82
13
4 1 Dan D'Autremont
Canora-Pelly 71
24
1 4 Ken Krawetz
Carrot River Valley 69
27
2 2 Fred Bradshaw
Cumberland
40
48 3 9 Doyle Vermette
Cut Knife-Turtleford 69
25
2 4 Larry Doke
Cypress Hills 81
12
2 5 Wayne Elhard
Estevan 73
12
10 5 Doreen Eagles
Humboldt 65
22
7 6 Donna Harpauer
Indian Head-Milestone 71
19
4 6 Don McMorris
Kelvington-Wadena 77
17
1 5 June Draude
Kindersley 71
19
4 6 Bill Boyd
Last Mountain-Touchwood 67
25
3 5 Glen Hart
Lloydminster 68
31
1 1 Ted McMillan
Martensville 80
13
2 5 Nancy Heppner
Meadow Lake
52
46
1 1 Jeremy Harrison
Melfort 72
24
3 1 Kevin Phillips
Melville-Saltcoats 66
31
2 1 Bob Bjornerud
Moose Jaw North 53
39
4 4 Warren Michelson
Moose Jaw Wakamow
43
47 5 5 Deb Higgins
Moosomin 79
15
5 1 Don Toth
Prince Albert Carlton 53
41
2 4 Darryl Hickie
Prince Albert Northcote
42
49 5 4 Darcy Furber
Regina Coronation Park
39
50 6 5 Jaime Garcia
Regina Dewdney 47
40
10 5 Gene Makowksy
Regina Douglas Park
38
48 7 7 Dwain Lingenfelter
Regina Elphinstone-Centre
27
59 6 8 Warren McCall
Regina Lakeview
40
42 11 7 John Nilson
Regina Northeast 48
43
4 5 Kevin Doherty
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley 50
35
11 4 Laura Ross
Regina Rosemont
43
47 4 6 Trent Wotherspoon
Regina South 51
35
8 6 Bill Hutchinson
Regina Walsh Acres
37
54 3 6 Sandra Morin
Regina Wascana Plains 60
26
9 5 Christine Tell
Rosetown-Elrose 77
14
3 6 Jim Reiter
Rosthern-Shellbrook 61
33
2 4 Scott Moe
Saskatchewan Rivers 62
35
2 1 Nadine Wilson
Saskatoon Centre
38
53 4 5 David Forbes
Saskatoon Eastview
49
43
3 5 Corey Tochor
Saskatoon Fairview
42
48 5 5 Andy Iwanchuk
Saskatoon Greystone 47
33
15 5 Rob Norris
Saskatoon Massey Place
43
50 3 4 Cam Broten
Saskatoon Meewasin 53
40
4 5 Roger Parent
Saskatoon Northwest 61
32
2 5 Gordon Wyant
Saskatoon Nutana
41
46 6 7 Catherine Sproule
Saskatoon Riversdale
39
54 2 5 Danielle Chartier
Saskatoon Silver Springs 70
21
4 5 Ken Cheveldayoff
Saskatoon Southeast 66
24
5 5 Don Morgan
Saskatoon Sutherland 52
37
5 6 Paul Merriman
Swift Current 78
16
2 4 Brad Wall
The Battlefords 46
40
10 4 Herb Cox
Thunder Creek 75
17
3 5 Lyle Stewart
Weyburn-Big Muddy 68
22
5 5 Dustin Duncan
Wood River 79
11
5 5 Yogi Huyghebaert
Yorkton 66
32
1 1 Greg Ottenbreit

Conclusion
Very little has changed since my last projection. The number crunching does reveal however that there are very few close races in the province. Only four are currently projected to be within 5% of each other (indicated as toss ups on the map). My projection has eliminated five toss up seats, and added one. This gives the NDP a net gain of three projected seats from my last projection, and the Saskatchewan Party receives a net gain of one.

Overall, the Saskatchewan Party is still projected to win a massive majority government, gaining a maximum of 8 seats from the NDP. The NDP's best case scenario at the moment is 16 seats, still four less than they currently hold.


Party Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table) Change from last projection Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
Sask Party
42 +1 43
NDP
12 +3 15
Toss ups* 4 -4

*Toss ups indicate projections closer than 5%.

2 comments:

  1. Your prediction for Regina Walsh Acres is probably particularly meaningless. The SaskParty candidate withdrew too late to be replaced in 2007.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I didn't use the 2007 election to calculate that riding.

    ReplyDelete