Northwest Territories 2011 election results

The Northwest Territories went to the polls on Monday to elect the members of the Territorial Assembly. The NWT uses a consensus government model, and has no political parties. It runs similar to a city council in that front, except the Premier is not directly elected by the people. Instead, he or she is elected from the within the Territorial Assembly by its membership.

Premier Floyd Roland opted not to run for re-election in his district of Inuvik Boot Lake, meaning the NWT will have a new Premier when the new assembly convenes and elects one.

Three of the 19 districts had no election, as the candidates in those districts were acclaimed. Those seats were Inuvik Twin Lakes, Tu Nedhe and Yellowknife South. Only one member was defeated, as Michael McLeod lost to challenger Michael Nadli in Deh Cho. It was a rematch of a close race between the two in 2003. In addition, there were three open seats where no incumbent was running. Inuvik Boot Lakes, Hay River North and Mackenzie Delta.

Map

It's difficult to map an election with no parties, but this map at least shows what happened in each district.

For fun, I also made an approximation map of the federal election results transposed onto the Northwest Territories territorial ridings. It should be known that voters generally vote for the candidate, rather than the party up in the north, so be cautioned not to look too much into this map. However, if the federal election was the territorial election, the NDP would win a majority government with 11 seats, the Tories 6 and the Liberals 2.

Finally, here is a guide map showing which ridings are where.

Manitoba election 2011 final prediction

Manitoba goes to the polls today, and so it's time for my final projection. There has been just one poll since my last projection, released by Angus Reid just yesterday. It showed basically the same numbers as the Probe Research poll I used to do my last numbers. The NDP is still at 46%, and the Tories are still at 43%. The only difference is that the Liberals are up 1%, to 8% while the Greens are down 1% to 3%. As such, not much has changed with this prediction, except some changes to the "toss ups", as I made predictions as to who I think will win that were contrary to my last prediction. 

Riding	NDP	PC	Lib	Grn	Oth	Projected winner
Agassiz	27	67	7	4	-	Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden	16	79	5	-	-	Larry Maguire
Assiniboia	58	36	4	2	-	Jim Rondeau
Brandon East	45	43	6	6	-	Drew Caldwell
Brandon West	43	52	5	-	0	Reg Hellwer
Burrows	67	28	4	1	0	Melanie Wight
Charleswood	26	63	7	4	-	Myrna Driedger
Concordia	68	26	4	2	-	Matt Wiebe
Dauphin	47	45	4	4	-	Stan Struthers
Dawson Trail	38	57	5	-	-	Laurent Tetrault
Elmwood	60	26	11	3	-	Jim Maloway
Emerson	17	67	16	-	-	Cliff Graydon
Flin Flon	65	25	8	2	-	Clarence Petterson
Fort Garry-Riverview	58	27	12	3	-	James Allum
Fort Richmond	55	33	11	1	-	Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Rouge	47	24	25	4	-	Jennifer Howard
Fort Whyte	30	64	6	-	-	Hugh McFadyen
Gimli	50	42	5	3	-	Peter Bjornson
Interlake	49	47	4	-	0	Tom Nevakshonoff
Kewatinook	54	40	5	1	-	Eric Robinson
Kildonan	61	35	4	-	-	Dave Chomiak
Kirkfield Park	46	46	5	3	-	Kelly de Groot
La Verendrye	25	67	5	2	-	Dennis Smook
Lac du Bonnet	22	69	7	2	-	Wayne Ewasko
Lakeside	31	61	5	3	-	Ralph Eichler
Logan	60	22	14	4	0	Flor Marcelino
Midland	20	69	11	-	-	Blaine Pederson
Minto	62	20	11	5	2	Andrew Swan
Morden-Winkler	9	83	6	-	-	Cameron Friesen
Morris	29	64	7	-	-	Mavis Taillieu
Point Douglas	58	30	8	2	2	Kevin Chief
Portage La Prairie	38	54	8	-	-	Ian Wishart
Radisson	57	39	4	-	-	Bidhu Jha
Riding Mountain	31	64	6	4	-	Leanne Rowat
Riel	59	34	7	-	-	Christine Melnick
River East	44	51	4	1	-	Bonnie Mitchelson
River Heights	25	34	39	2	-	Jon Gerrard
Rossmere	50	44	4	2	-	Erna Braun
Seine River	58	35	7	-	-	Theresa Oswald
Selkirk	49	45	6	-	-	Greg Dewar
Southdale	46	50	4	-	-	Judy Eastman
Spruce Woods	20	71	9	-	-	Cliff Cullen
St. Boniface	65	24	8	3	-	Greg Selinger
St. James	49	43	4	4	-	Deanne Cruthers
St. Johns	63	30	4	3	-	Gord Mackintosh
St. Norbert	37	55	8	-	-	Karen Velthuys
St. Paul	30	59	9	-	-	Ron Schuler
St. Vital	64	31	5	-	-	Nancy Allan
Steinbach	7	88	5	-	-	Kevin Goertzen
Swan River	47	48	4	-	-	Dave Powell
The Maples	52	38	9	1	-	Mohinder Saran
The Pas	71	25	4	-	-	Frank Whitehead
Thompson	67	18	15	-	-	Steve Ashton
Transcona	66	30	4	-	-	Daryl Reid
Tuxedo	33	52	13	2	-	Heather Stefanson
Tyndall Park	67	23	9	1	-	Ted Marcelino
Wolseley	65	17	6	12	-	Rob Altemeyer

Predicting the toss ups

Brandon East

My last projection gave the Tories the edge here, but provincially, this riding is still safe NDP territory. The riding has voted NDP in every election since it was created in 1969. While the region is trending Tory, I don't expect it to go PC quite yet- at least not while the NDP is running an incumbent in Drew Caldwell. He won comfortably in 2007 by 1,000 votes.

Dauphin

Dauphin is another long time NDP riding. It has been represented by the NDP in every election since 1981. This riding I had the Tories ahead in my last projection, but I'm not quite ready to say that, although it will be close with the Tories trending up here.

Interlake

Interlake is yet another rural Manitoba riding with a long NDP history. The NDP has won the region in every election since 1969. In the last election, the NDP won the seat by 1,600 votes, but the riding's boundary changes since then has made the seat more Tory friendly. I still don't think it will be enough for the Tories to win, however.

Kirkfield Park

Before the NDP finally won this seat in 2007, Kirkfield Park had elected the Tories for 30 years. This is one of those suburban Winnipeg seats that went to the new NDP of Gary Doer. While the NDP is up in Winnipeg, it's seats like Kirkfield Park the Tories will be targeting, and I think in this case they will prove successful in getting this riding back.

River Heights

The Liberals are in danger here of losing there one and only riding. The Liberal vote is expected to half across the city, and the Tories are up, and will be targeting this affluent riding in the centre of the riding. The Tories are also benefited from the fact that the new boundaries make this riding less Liberal friendly. However, with the Liberals putting all of their eggs in this basket, they should be able to keep it.

Selkirk

Selkirk has not voted Tory ever, since being created in 1957. While the area is trending towards the Tories, I don't think they are quite there yet. The NDP won here comfortably by 1600 votes in 2007. They should be able to win it again although it will be close. This riding has lost some of its NDP areas after redistribution.

Southdale

Until they won it in 2007, the NDP had not been able to take this area of Winnipeg since 1966. It's a traditionally Tory area that the NDP was able to win last election by 1200 votes. However, the riding has lost some NDP friendly neighbourhoods, and the Tories will be targeting it. They should be able ot pick it up.

Swan River

Swan River is an historically Tory riding that has voted NDP since 1990. It is currently an open seat. The NDP won the seat by 1,600 votes in 2007, but without the power of incumbency, are vulnerable here. I had previously thought the NDP was strong enough to keep this riding, but I think the Tories may just win it, strengthened by a depleted NDP in rural Manitoba, and the fact that the riding has lost some NDP areas.

Seat changes / conclusion

The only seat changes projected from my last prediction are the one's discussed above. Basically, I have the NDP picking up Brandon East, Dauphin and Selkirk, while I have the Tories picking up Kirkfield Park, Southdale and Swan River. There is no net change from last time. And so, I predict yet another NDP majority government in Manitoba.

Prince Edward Island 2011 election - results

Unofficial final results map

The results are in from Prince Edward Island, and the Liberals, under Premier Robert Ghiz have won another majority government. The party won 22 of the island's 27 seats, down two from the 2007 election. The Tories won five seats, up two. The Liberals received 51% of the vote, the Tories 40%, the Greens won 4%, the NDP 3% and the new Island party 1%. The popular vote nearly mirrored the 2007 election, with the Liberals down 2%, the Tories down 1%, while the Greens and NDP were both up 1%.

Party	Leader	Popular vote	%	Seats
Liberal	Robert Ghiz	38304	51.4	22
Progressive Conservative	Olive Crane	29948	40.2	5
Green	Sharon Labchuk	3239	4.4	0
N.D.P.	James Rodd	2355	3.2	0
Island Party	Billy Cann	682	0.9	0
Independents	-	15	0	0

The Tories performed better than the most recent poll had them had, getting 4% more, while the Liberals were down 2% from that poll. This allowed the party to win many two more seats than I had projected.

Where I went wrong

I was wrong in a total of four seats (85% success rate). Not bad for my first projection, especially considering my limited knowledge of local races. And it was that limited knowledge that hurt me in the end. Here are the four seats I picked the wrong winner in:

Belfast-Murray River

It seems odd that the Tories would lose a seat I predicted despite doing better than my expectations overall, but they did it here. Incumbent Charlie McGeoghegan was able to hold on to his seat in a close rematch of the 2007 by-election against Darlene Compton. Only 8 votes separated the two candidates. I wasn't too far off though, as I did predict a close race. In total I was only an average of 2% off the marks of the four parties.

Souris-Elmira

Just 210 votes separated the Liberals and Tories here in 2007, but with Liberal incumbent Allan Campbell running again, I thought he would be able to hold on. He wasn't as Tory candidate Colin LaVie won by 30 votes in a race that went back and forth all night. I didn't predict that close of a race (I had Campbell winning by 7%), but I wasn't that far off, being an average of 4% off for each party.

Stratford-Kinlock

The biggest surprise for me on election night was in this riding, deep in the heart of Queens County. My general assumption was that the Liberals would improve in Queens, but it actually did not. The race in 2007 was close, when Liberal Cynthia Dunsford won by just 81 votes. However, the 2011 election was not even close. Tory candidate James Aylward won by nearly 800 votes over Dunsford. I predicted a 7 point Liberal victory, but what happened was a 22% Tory victory. I was off an average of 7% here. While I nailed the small NDP and Green votes, I was off by much more for the Liberals and Tories.

Tignish-Palmer Road

The Tories were able to win on seat in Prince County, however it was not in Alberton-Roseville like I expected. Instead, it was in the more Liberal leaning district of Tignish-Palmer Road. The Liberals won here by 300 votes in 2007, but it was perhaps the strength of Local Conservative MP Gail Shea that made this riding blue this time around. Shea represented Tignish as an MLA before losing in 2007 and going on to become a Conservative MP. Her strength probably won this riding for the Tories, and their candidate Hal Perry. It was very close though, Perry won by just 33 votes. I was off by an average of 3% for each party here. 

Swing maps

Liberal swing (2007-2011)

 

Progressive Conservative swing (2007-2011)

As you can see from these two maps, it's a very bad idea to assume uniform swings in Prince Edward Island, where the local candidate matters quite a lot. Especially in this election, where there was little difference in the overall share of the vote from last time, local candidates made more of an impact as to how each riding swung. From looking at these maps, there's not many noticeable patterns. There are red and green ridings for both the Tories and the Liberals in all the regions.

Prince Edward Island 2011 election final prediction

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith.

Prince Edward goes to the polls today, and so it's time for my final projection for the province. There have been few polls of the province during the campaign. The most recent one was released on Thursday, and so that will be what my projection will be based on.

The poll, conducted by Corporate Research Associates was quite large for PEI standards, with 700 respondents. Unfortunately, unlike the poll before it, I have not been able to find any regional numbers, so I will have to make some guesses on that front.

The polls shows that the Tories are up 5 points to 36%, while the Liberals are down 6 points to 53%, the same mark they got in the 2007 election. The NDP and the Greens are now tied with 5% each. This increase for the Tories means that some seats are now in play for them. My guess is that much of this gain occurred in Prince and Kings counties. Kings is the only place where the Tories won seats last time. However, it's possible with the current numbers to win in Prince County. Alberton-Roseville was close last time, and if the Liberals are down in Prince like I think they might be, that particular riding is in play. However, I could be way off base.

Let's look at my projections:

Projections

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Oth	Projected winner
Alberton-Roseville	48	46	-	5	1	Pat Murphy
Belfast-Murray River	44	49	-	6	1	Darlene Compton
Borden-Kinkora	62	28	-	10	-	George Webster
Charlottetown-Brighton	64	21	6	9	-	Robert Ghiz
Charlottetown-Lewis Point	63	28	5	4	-	Kathleen Casey
Charlottetown-Parkdale	62	26	8	4	-	Doug Currie
Charlottetown-Sherwood	61	28	6	5	-	Robert Mitchell
Charlottetown-Victoria Park	61	23	5	11	-	Richard Brown
Cornwall-Meadowbank	63	31	-	5	1	Ron MacKinley
Evangeline-Miscouche	55	38	-	6	1	Sonny Gallant
Georgetown-St. Peter's	43	46	6	4	1	Steven Myers
Kellys Cross-Cumberland	55	26	8	9	2	Valerie Docherty
Kensington-Malpeque	61	35	4	-	-	Wes Sheridan
Montague-Kilmuir	47	47	-	4	2	Allan Roach
Morell-Mermaid	40	55	-	4	1	Olive Crane
O'Leary-Inverness	60	40	-	-	-	Robert Henderson
Rustico-Emerald	71	24	-	5	-	Carolyn Bertram
Souris-Elmira	53	46	-	-	1	Allan Campbell
Stratford-Kinlock	48	41	5	6	-	Cynthia Dunsford
Summerside-St. Eleanors	52	38	5	5	-	Gerard Greenan
Summerside-Wilmot	55	39	-	5	1	Janice Sherry
Tignish-Palmer Road	53	46	-	-	1	Neil LeClair
Tracadie-Hillsborough Park	61	27	6	5	1	Buck Watts
Tyne Valley-Linkletter	56	44	-	-	-	Paula Biggar
Vernon River-Stratford	50	39	6	5	-	Alan McIsaac
West Royalty-Springvale	57	33	4	6	-	Bush Dumville
York-Oyster Bed	59	27	8	6	-	Robert Vessey

Predicting the toss ups

Alberton-Roseville:

This riding was the closest in Prince County in 2007, when Alberton mayor Pat Murphy defeated the Tory incumbent, Cletus Dunn by just 123 votes. The riding was also the Tory's best in Prince County in 1996, when the whole region shunned the Tories. It still voted Liberal that year. Dunn won both the 2000 and 2003 elections by comfortable margins. Murphy is facing Tory David Gordon, who does not appear to be a terribly strong candidate. I am fairly certain this riding will go Liberal.

Belfast-Murray River:

This seat was held by former Tory Premier Pat Binns until he resigned in 2007 after his party went down to defeat. The ensuing by-election elected a Liberal, local fisherman Charlie McGeoghegan over businesswoman Darlene Compton. The two will be duking it out again this time. McGeoghegan won the by-election by over 400 votes, a fairly comfortable margin for such small districts, but I expect he will be going down to defeat in this traditionally Tory district.

Georgetown-St. Peter's:

This riding has never voted Liberal since being created in 1996. However, it is an open seat, so it will be one to watch on election night. The Tories won by just 300 votes in 2007. The Tory candidate, Steven Myers is going against the Liberal candidate Kevin Gotell. Due to its Tory history, I do expect the PCs to keep this seat, although it will be close.

Montague-Kilmuir:

Another open seat is Montague-Kilmuir. This seat has also always elected the Tories since 1996. However, the margin was much closer in 2007, with the Tories winning by just 134 votes. I do have the current projection as being a tie, but with the Liberals slightly ahead. The Liberals are running RCMP officer Allen Roach against businessman Greg Farrell of the Tories, two competent rivals. However, I think Roach will win it. The Liberals may not have the history here, but the seat is open and, it was close last time.

Changes since the last prediction / conclusion

I have the Tories winning three seats, two more then my last projection. As mentioned, I now have them winning Georgetown-St. Peter's and Belfast-Murray River.

The PEI election will be somewhat of a snoozefest. It will be interesting to see how many seats the Tories can win, if any at all though.

Make sure to follow me on twitter this evening for live commentary. Polls close at 7pm Atlantic (6 Eastern).

Also note, the Northwest Territories will also be going to the polls tomorrow. I will be making a map of that election, but since they use consensus government, the mapping will be different.

Manitoba election 2011 prediction (September 30th edition)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

Manitoba, which goes to the polls on Tuesday in their provincial election, finally saw some polling numbers this past week. After not having a poll since June, three polls have just come out. The most recent one was just released this morning by Probe Research, and gave the NDP a moderate lead over the Tories of 46% to 43%, with the Liberals far behind at 7% and the Greens at 4%

These numbers don't show a huge change from the last election in 2007, where the NDP won 45% of the vote, and the Tories 38%. The poll also showed that the NDP is holding ground in Winnipeg, which holds most of the seats in the province, while the Tories are gaining, but only at the expense of the Liberals. However, in rural Manitoba, the NDP is down considerably, and this might mean some seat losses. However, must of rural Manitoba votes overwhelmingly PC anyways, so much of this swing will be wasted.

Due to the small change in voter support from 2007, I expect little change from that election. Following is my riding by riding projections for Tuesday's election. Note, I have not been able to get a hold of the transposition of the votes from the last election (Manitoba has just undergone boundary redistribution), however, I have been pointed to some poll maps from the last election overlaid with the new boundaries. That gave me a good idea as to how much some ridings will have changed. Many thanks to Krago from the rabble.ca forum for making these!

Riding	NDP	PC	Lib	Grn	Oth	Projected winner
Agassiz	27	67	6	3	-	Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden	17	79	4	-	-	Larry Maguire
Assiniboia	58	36	3	3	-	Jim Rondeau
Brandon East	43	47	4	6	-	Mike Waddell
Brandon West	44	52	4	-	0	Reg Hellwer
Burrows	67	28	3	2	0	Melanie Wight
Charleswood	26	63	6	5	-	Myrna Driedger
Concordia	68	26	3	3	-	Matt Wiebe
Dauphin	45	47	3	5	-	Lloyd McKinney
Dawson Trail	39	57	4	-	-	Laurent Tetrault
Elmwood	60	26	10	4	-	Jim Maloway
Emerson	18	67	15	-	-	Cliff Graydon
Flin Flon	65	25	7	3	-	Clarence Petterson
Fort Garry-Riverview	58	27	11	4	-	James Allum
Fort Richmond	55	33	10	2	-	Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Rouge	47	24	24	5	-	Jennifer Howard
Fort Whyte	31	64	5	-	-	Hugh McFadyen
Gimli	50	42	4	4	-	Peter Bjornson
Interlake	49	48	3	-	0	Tom Nevakshonoff
Kewatinook	54	40	4	2	-	Eric Robinson
Kildonan	62	35	3	-	-	Dave Chomiak
Kirkfield Park	48	44	4	4	-	Sharon Blady
La Verendrye	25	67	4	3	-	Dennis Smook
Lac du Bonnet	22	69	6	3	-	Wayne Ewasko
Lakeside	31	61	4	4	-	Ralph Eichler
Logan	60	22	13	5	0	Flor Marcelino
Midland	21	69	10	-	-	Blaine Pederson
Minto	62	20	10	6	2	Andrew Swan
Morden-Winkler	10	83	5	-	-	Cameron Friesen
Morris	30	64	6	-	-	Mavis Taillieu
Point Douglas	58	30	7	3	2	Kevin Chief
Portage La Prairie	39	54	7	-	-	Ian Wishart
Radisson	58	39	3	-	-	Bidhu Jha
Riding Mountain	31	64	5	5	-	Leanne Rowat
Riel	60	34	6	-	-	Christine Melnick
River East	45	50	3	2	-	Bonnie Mitchelson
River Heights	25	34	38	3	-	Jon Gerrard
Rossmere	50	44	3	3	-	Erna Braun
Seine River	59	35	6	-	-	Theresa Oswald
Selkirk	45	50	5	-	-	David Bell
Southdale	49	48	3	-	-	Erin Selby
Spruce Woods	21	71	8	-	-	Cliff Cullen
St. Boniface	65	24	7	4	-	Greg Selinger
St. James	48	44	3	5	-	Deanne Cruthers
St. Johns	63	30	3	4	-	Gord Mackintosh
St. Norbert	38	55	7	-	-	Karen Velthuys
St. Paul	31	59	8	-	-	Ron Schuler
St. Vital	65	31	4	-	-	Nancy Allan
Steinbach	8	88	4	-	-	Kevin Goertzen
Swan River	48	45	3	-	-	Ron Kostyshyn
The Maples	53	38	8	1	-	Mohinder Saran
The Pas	72	25	3	-	-	Frank Whitehead
Thompson	68	18	14	-	-	Steve Ashton
Transcona	67	30	3	-	-	Daryl Reid
Tuxedo	33	52	12	3	-	Heather Stefanson
Tyndall Park	67	23	8	2	-	Ted Marcelino
Wolseley	65	17	5	13	-	Rob Altemeyer

Riding changes since last prediction

For the most part, there were just some alterations from my last projection, despite the fact that it has been three months since my last one. I have now taken Swan River, Interlake, Selkirk and Brandon East out of the NDP category and put them into too close to call. Meanwhile, River Heights the only Liberal call I had is now too close to call as well. River East is the only riding that I had projected to go Tory that has been put into the too close to call column. Meanwhile, the Tories are now projected to win Dawson Trails and St. Norbert, both pick ups from my last projection. And, Fort Richmond is now projected to go NDP. 

Conclusion

It looks like the NDP will be headed for their fourth straight majority government. Their slim lead in the polls doesn't matter too much, due to the fact that their benefited from having much of the Tory vote being wasted in rural Manitoba. However, if the Tories win all of their too close to call seats, they can still win a majority of their own. In addition to the 24 seats I have them projected to win or are leading in, they would also have to win Interlake, Kirkfield Park, Southdale, Swan River and either St. James or River Heights to get a majority. Not outside the realm of possibility.

Forum Research poll riding by riding map

Last weekend, Forum Research published a poll of 40,000 Ontarians asking their voting intentions for the provincial election next week. The sample was so high, that they were able to get numbers for individual ridings. I have been trying franctically this past week to find some information about how they have local races, and I had only been able to find the GTA numbers and a few others. Well, this morning I got a surprise email from Krago who posts on the rabble.ca forums. He sent me an email with all of the numbers. And since this is an Elections Atlas, what better way to show those numbers than in map form? Here it is:

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

The map is not too off my prediction, but there are a few anomalies I must investigate. Among the ridings I have not called for the Tories, they are apparently ahead in Brant, Kitchener Centre, Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, Brampton-Springdale, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Kenora-Rainy River and Ottawa-Orleans. Meanwhile, the Liberals are ahead in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Windsor West, Perth-Wellington, Parkdale-High Park, York South-Weston, Kitchener-Waterloo and Ottawa Centre. The NDP was the big loser in this poll, but the one bright spot for them is they area ahead in London-Fanshawe despite my last prediction.

Of course, I have my suspicions about some of the local numbers, but for the most part this map is going to be pretty accurate.

Ontario election 2011 prediction (september 26)

Outline by S. Smith

This past weekend, Forum Research published the largest poll in Canadian history for the provincial election in Ontario. 40,000 people were polled, asking which party they were supporting. This poll was so large, individual riding results were also published within a certain degree of accuracy.

For this projection, I will only be looking at this particular poll, due to the fact that there is no way you can get more accurate than 40,000 respondents- the margin of error was just 0.5%. The results of the poll are quite interesting; it showed an exact tie between the Tories and the Liberals at 35%, with the NDP trailing not too far behind at 23%. The Greens meanwhile are at a respectable 6% province wide.

Looking at individual ridings, according to Forum Research these numbers translate to 47 seats each for the Liberals and Tories and just 13 for NDP. This is where the errors comes in. With a tie vote, the Liberals should have the edge in seats, but they don't. This can be explained by large rural swings against them, which I factored into my projection. But one statistic that doesn't sit right is the 13 seats for the NDP. That would mean a net increase of just three seats on a swing of 6%. This seams ridiculous considering the party was able to win 17 seats on just 18% of the vote in the 2008 federal election. But who knows, perhaps the party is doing well, but not in any concentrations.

The report published in the Toronto Star indicated that there were 28 seats within 5% of the vote, but didn't say who was leading or in second place in them. They were: Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough--Westdale, Beaches--East York, Bramalea—Gore—Malton, Brampton—Springdale, Halton, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener—Conestoga, Kitchener—Waterloo, London North Centre, London West, Mississauga East, Mississauga—Erindale, Mississauga South, Niagara Falls, Oak Ridges—Markham, Ottawa South, Pickering--Scarborough East, Richmond Hill, St. Catharines, Thornhill, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay--Superior North, Timmins--James Bay, Trinity—Spadina, Welland, Windsor—Tecumseh, Windsor West and York Centre.

Some of those seats make sense, but others are quite odd, like McGuinty in danger of losing his seat in Ottawa South, or the NDP at risk of losing Timmins—James Bay. Additionally, there are some notable absences from this list, like my own riding of Ottawa Centre. Some of the individual riding sample sizes are quite low however. Timmins—James Bay had just 54 respondents in the poll.

Sunday morning I looked for some individual riding numbers, and found some for the Greater Toronto Area. Looking at the map found that most ridings seemed to be accurate, but there are a few oddities. Specifically, how poor the NDP seems to be doing in Toronto, despite polls from earlier last week showing the party was doing better than they were at federally. Forum Research has the party losing Parkdale—High Park surprisingly, and in danger of losing the two strongholds of Trinity—Spadina and Beaches—East York. Also, the party is way behind in York South—Weston, despite some indications of a strong NDP campaign there. Also, the Tories being ahead in two Brampton ridings is a bit of a surprise, considering I would have expected other ridings to go first. I suppose many Indo-Canadians are warming up to the provincial Tories at the expense of the Liberals.

I also found some numbers from Bruce, Grey and Simcoe Counties. The big surprise here is the collapse of the Liberal vote in Huron—Bruce which is part of the reason why I suspect the Liberals are way behind in their rural seats.

And so, I am left to make a new projection from all of this. I didn't just copy and paste the poll numbers into the ridings, but I did make some adjustments where I could find the numbers. Some wonky ridings I nearly ignored completely, but then again, it's possible the polls are correct about those seats. I will be taking a close look at these seats in the next week and a half before election day.

Seat by seat projection

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Oth	Projected winner
Ajax—Pickering	43	37	13	6	1	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	37	15	41	5	1	Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	36	41	16	6	1	Donna Skelly
Barrie	26	47	19	7	1	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	32	18	39	10	1	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	36	32	27	4	1	Kuldip Kular
Brampton West	42	38	16	4	0	Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale	38	39	17	5	1	Pam Hundal
Brant	40	34	20	4	2	Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	29	42	13	11	5	Bill Walker
Burlington	31	46	17	5	1	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	25	45	24	5	1	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	35	47	12	5	1	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	27	45	23	5	-	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	35	11	47	5	2	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	43	30	22	4	1	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	47	38	8	6	1	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	24	49	10	17	0	Sylvia Jones
Durham	27	47	19	6	1	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	50	36	9	4	1	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	25	49	21	4	1	Jeff Yurek
Essex	24	40	32	4	-	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	47	35	12	4	2	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	48	25	21	4	2	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	41	34	17	6	2	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	37	44	13	5	1	Marlissa Gosselin
Guelph	45	28	15	11	1	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	20	60	15	4	1	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	34	47	13	6	0	Laurie Scott
Halton	34	46	14	4	1	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	23	18	50	7	2	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	26	28	40	4	2	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	30	27	37	4	2	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	32	38	25	4	1	Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River	29	31	36	4	0	Sarah Campbell
Kingston and the Islands	44	29	20	5	2	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	40	35	19	5	1	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	36	41	18	5	-	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	37	43	14	5	1	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	35	40	19	4	2	Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	33	43	18	6	-	Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville	25	55	14	6	0	Steve Clark
London North Centre	39	32	21	7	1	Deb Matthews
London West	44	38	17	4	1	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	35	29	30	4	2	Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville	48	29	18	4	1	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	42	38	15	4	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	44	40	11	4	1	Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South	43	36	16	4	1	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	42	38	15	4	1	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	44	36	13	7	-	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	30	49	13	7	1	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	34	46	14	6	-	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	42	36	16	5	2	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	21	54	18	5	2	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	25	20	51	4	-	France Gelinas
Nipissing	34	46	16	4	-	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	35	40	18	6	1	Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham	39	42	14	4	1	Farid Wassef
Oakville	43	39	11	5	2	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	18	42	35	4	1	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	32	20	39	8	1	Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South	42	35	16	6	1	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	37	41	16	5	1	Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans	43	41	11	4	1	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	41	27	24	7	1	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	23	52	18	5	2	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	32	14	44	7	3	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	19	48	22	10	1	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	37	42	13	6	2	Randy Pettapiece
Peterborough	42	29	23	5	1	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	42	36	16	5	1	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	34	39	21	4	2	Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	18	65	13	4	0	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	42	37	14	6	1	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	40	35	18	5	2	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	43	28	19	8	2	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	23	45	26	4	2	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	51	16	27	4	2	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	43	28	24	4	1	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	39	24	31	5	1	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	50	27	17	4	2	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	41	30	23	4	2	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	45	21	28	3	3	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	24	52	17	7	-	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	23	54	13	10	-	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	28	51	16	4	1	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	49	14	32	4	1	Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill	41	45	9	4	1	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	32	23	41	4	0	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	42	12	42	4	0	Michael Gravelle or Steve Mantis
Timikaming—Cochrane	35	17	44	4	0	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	29	22	45	4	0	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	44	20	26	8	2	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	26	11	52	9	2	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	33	14	45	7	1	Rasario Marchese
Vaughan	51	33	11	4	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	24	33	38	4	1	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	27	55	11	7	-	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	26	48	19	6	1	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	43	36	15	5	1	David Zimmer
Windsor West	33	20	43	4	-	Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh	41	20	34	4	1	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	41	40	13	5	1	Monte Kwinter
York South—Weston	39	14	42	4	1	Paul Ferriera
York West	51	17	27	4	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	24	52	17	6	1	Julia Munro

Seat changes since last projection

The Tories were the main beneficiary of this projection, gaining six seats in my theory that they are winning all of the rural Liberal seats. These are Huron—Bruce, Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Northumberland—Quinte West, Perth—Wellington and Prince Edward—Hastings. Also, the absence of Ottawa West—Nepean on that close race list means that I believe it is firmly in the Tory column as well, making it the sixth Tory gain. Three of those Tory gains were from projected toss up seats. The NDP also gained on seat in this projection, in Algoma—Manitoulin (from toss up). Brampton—Springdale and Ottawa—Orleans are new toss ups, as those previously Liberal projected seats are now close races.

Conclusion

While I didn't come up with a tie in seats like Forum Research did, I did get a close result. Either the Tories or the Liberals can win this, but it will be a minority. The Tories are presently two seats behind. Even though I shifted many Liberal seats into the Tory column, I still couldn't get to the number provided in the forum research poll. And, I have no idea where they have the NDP gaining seats, but I suspect their low sample sizes in the north have meant that their numbers weren't too NDP friendly. In any event, I have the NDP winning at least 17 seats, not 13. And they will be holding the balance of power. 

Methodology/disclaimer

I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.