Tuesday, September 4, 2012

Quebec election - final prediction and mini guide

Final projection


It is election day in Quebec, and it is time for my final prediction. If the polls are to believed, this race is going to be a three way between the separatist Parti Quebecois, the governing Liberals and the upstart centre-right Coalition Avenir du Quebec. For the last week or so of the campaign though, it looks like the PQ will win the election. But the question will be if they get a majority, and whether or not the CAQ can surpass the Liberals to form opposition.

For my final prediction, I analyzed the regional breakdowns of the final Leger Poll as well as the mostrecent Forum Research poll I had available to me (they came out with a new one just a few hours ago, which I will have to ignore). I have also looked at a number of individual riding polls, riding history, and a little gut instinct to come up with my numbers. And the conclusion I came to is that the PQ will indeed win a majority government, but by just 2 seats. The Liberals will narrowly get official opposition with 33 seats, which would be their worst showing since 1976. Also, the Liberals are set to get a record low in terms of share of popular vote. Anything less than 33% of the vote will do that, and they have been polling lower than 30% routinely. While the PQ may win the election, they will probably go down in their vote share as well from the previous election, and votes are likely to be siphoned off to the CAQ. 

Here are my riding by riding numbers:
(Ridings projected to be decided by less than 3% of the vote are shaded in grey)
Riding PLQ PQ CAQ QS PVQ ON Oth Winning candidate
Abitibi-Est
31
36 24 5 2 2 - Elizabeth Larouche
Abitibi-Ouest 14 49 26 8 - 3 - Francois Gendron
Acadie 54 16 18 11 - 1 - Christine St-Pierre
Anou—Louis-Riel 35 30 22 10 - 2 1 Lise Theriault
Argenteuil
27
37 25 5 4 2 - Roland Richer
Arthabaska
29 26 34 5 3 2 1 Sylvie Roy
Beauce-Nord 24 7 57 5 3 1 3 Andre Spenard
Beauce-Sud
34 9 51 4 - 1 1 Richard Savoie
Beauharnois 18 43 26 5 3 3 2 Guy Leclair
Bellechasse
30 14 42 6 - - 3 Christian Levesque
Berthier
11
36
41 6 4 2 0 Francois Benjamin
Bertrand 19 42 27 6 4 2 0 Claude Cousineau
Blainville
16
35
38 5 4 2 0 Daniel Ratthe
Bonaventure
37
45 13 3 - 2 - Sylvain Roy
Borduas 17 48 20 7 4 3 1 Pierre Duchesne
Bourassa-Sauve 44 22 22 9 2 1 - Rita de Santis
Bourget 14 43 23 10 5 3 2 Maka Kotto
Brome—Missisquoi
32 26 27 6 4 2 3 Pierre Paradis
Chambly 16 41 30 6 4 2 1 Bertrand St-Arnaud
Champlain 20
35
37 5 - 2 1 Pierre Jackson
Chapleau 41 20 28 5 5 1 0 Marc Carriere
Charlesbourg
32 21 37 6 - 1 3 Denise Trudel
Charlevoix—Cote-de-Beaupre 24 41 27 5 - 2 1 Pauline Marois
Chateauguay
29
34 25 5 4 2 1 Maryse Perreault
Chauveau 24 17 49 6 - 1 3 Gerard Deltell
Chicoutimi 24
44
23 7 - 2 0 Stephane Bedard
Chomedey 50 19 21 5 3 1 1 Guy Ouellette
Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere 21 17 53 6 2 - 1 Marc Picard
Cote-du-Sud 40 18 35 5 - 1 1 Robert Mortin
Cremazie 24 39 19 12 4 2 - Diane De Courcy
D'Arcy-McGee 75 3 14 7 - - 1 Lawrence Bergman
Deux-Montagnes
17 40 31 5 5 2 - Daniel Goyer
Drummond—Bois-Francs
26
31
32 7 - 2 2 Sebastien Schneeberger
Dubuc 24 39 27 6 - 3 1 Jean-Marie Claveau
Duplessis 20 47 24 6 - 2 1 Lorraine Richard
Fabre
30
34 24 5 4 2 1 Francois-Gycelain Rocque
Gaspe
28 52 14 4 - 2 - Gaetan Lelievre
Gatineau 41 21 23 7 5 2 1 Stephanie Vallee
Gouin
9 36 12 39 4 - 0 Francoise David
Granby 21 25 44 7 - 1 2 Francois Bonnardel
Groulx
20
34
35 5 4 2 0 Helene Daneault
Hochelaga—Maisonneuve 5 48 19 18 5 3 2 Carole Poirier
Hull 34 25 17 12 7 2 3 Maryse Gaudreault
Huntingdon
31 21 36 6 3 1 2 Claire Isabelle
Iberville 26 38 26 4 4 2 - Marie Bouille
Iles-de-la-Madeleine
39 46 9 4 - 2 - Jeannie Richard
Jacques-Cartier 64 4 15 7 9 0 1 Geoffrey Kelley
Jean-Lesage
25 28 33 9 - 2 3 Johanne Lapointe
Jeanne-Mance—Viger 58 10 22 8 - 1 1 Filomena Rotiroti
Jean-Talon 40 27 23 7 - 2 1 Yves Bolduc
Johnson
21
33
37 6 - 2 1 Stephane Legault
Joliette 14 39 35 8 - 2 2 Veronique Hivon
Jonquiere 18 46 26 6 - 2 2 Sylvain Gaudreault
Labelle 14 47 26 6 4 3 - Sylvain Page
Lac-Saint-Jean 15 54 19 5 3 3 1 Alexandre Clouthier
LaFontaine 53 14 18 8 4 1 2 Marc Tanguay
La Peltrie 28 15 49 6 - 1 1 Eric Caire
La Piniere 44 21 22 6 4 1 2 Fatima Houda-Pepin
Laporte 35 32 23 7 - 2 1 Nicole Menard
La Prairie
23 37 27 5 3 2 2 Pierre Langlois
L'Assomption
12
32
44 6 4 2 - Francois Legault
Laurier—Dorion
29
31 11 19 6 2 2 Badiona Bazin
Laval-des-Rapides
29
36 23 6 4 2 0 Leo Bureau-Blouin
Laviolette 43 21 28 6 - 1 1 Julie Boulet
Levis
29 18 39 7 - 1 6 Christian Dube
Lotbiniere—Frontenac
36
21 38 6 - - - Martin Caron
Louis-Hebert 37 25 29 4 - 2 3 Sam Hamad
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 54 16 19 9 - 1 1 Robert Poeti
Marie-Victorin 13
48
24 7 4 3 1 Bernard Drainville
Marquette 42 21 21 8 7 1 - Francois Ouimet
Maskinonge
26
27 37 5 1 2 2 Jean Damphousse
Masson 7 46 34 5 4 3 1 Diane Hamelin
Matane—Matapedia 19 55 15 5 2 3 1 Pascal Berube
Megantic
30 33 22 7 - 2 1 Gloriane Blais
Mercier 5 29 15 44 5 2 - Amir Khadir
Mille-Iles
32
33 23 5 4 2 1 Robert Carrier
Mirabel
11 40 41 5 - 2 1 Sylvie d'Amours
Montarville
25
34
29
5 4 2 1 Monique Richard
Montmorency
26 22 44 4 - 1 3 Michelyne St-Laurent
Mont-Royal 60 7 16 10 6 0 1 Pierre Arcand
Nelligan 57 9 18 7 7 1 1 Yolande James
Nicolet—Becancour
20
23
29 - - 28 1 Donald Martel
Notre-Dame-de-Grace 53 8 15 7 16 0 1 Kathleen Weil
Orford
36 29 21 8 4 2 0 Pierre Reid
Outremont 40 22 17 18 - 1 2 Raymond Bachand
Papineau
30
34 25 8 - 2 2 Jean-Francois Primeau
Pointe-aux-Trembles 9 53 24 9 - 3 2 Nicole Leger
Pontiac 53 11 21 7 6 1 1 Charlotte L'Ecuyer
Portneuf
26 17 49 6 - 1 1 Jacques Marcotte
Rene-Levesque 12
52
27 6 - 3 - Marjolain Dufour
Repentigny
17 41 34 6 - 2 - Scott McKay
Richelieu 21 48 21 7 - 3 - Elaine Zakaib
Richmond
32 36 21 6 3 2 0 Etienne-Alexis Boucher
Rimouski 21 48 19 7 1 3 1 Irvin Pelletier
Riviere-du-Loup—Temiscouata
32 36 24 4 2 1 1 Michel Lagace
Robert-Baldwin 65 3 17 8 6 0 1 Pierre Marsan
Roberval 27 41 25 5 - 2 - Denis Trottier
Rosemont 16 46 19 14 - 3 2 Jean-Francois Lisee
Rousseau 16 49 24 7 - 3 1 Nicolas Marceau
Rouyn-Noranda—Temiscamingue
26
31
30 9 2 2 - Gilles Chapadeau
Saint-Francois
31 41 16 6 3 2 1 Rejean Hebert
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne
33
34 17 13 - 2 1 Sophie Stanke
Saint-Hyacinthe 23 39 26 7 - 2 3 Emilien Pelletier
Saint-Jean 24 39 26 6 - 2 3 Dave Turcotte
Saint-Jerome
13 41 35 5 4 2 - Gilles Robert
Saint-Laurent 47 13 21 11 6 1 1 Jean-Marc Fournier
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques 12 43 18 22 - 2 3 Daniel Breton
Saint-Maurice 24 41 27 5 - 2 1 Luc Trudel
Sainte-Rose
27 36 27 7 - 2 1 Suzanne Proulx
Sanguinet 14 45 31 5 - 3 2 Alain Therrien
Sherbrooke
36
36 13 9 4 2 1 Serge Cardin
Soulanges
31 30 30 6 - 2 1 Lucie Charlebois
Taillon 17 42 25 7 4 3 2 Marie Malavoy
Taschereau 24 38 20 14 - 2 2 Agnes Maltais
Terrebonne
10 42 35 6 4 3 0 Mathieu Traversy
Trois-Rivieres
30 35
23
8 - 2 2 Djemila Benhabib
Ungava 21 41 27 9 - 2 - Luc Ferland
Vachon 9 54 20 8 4 4 1 Martine Ouellet
Vanier-Les Rivieres
29 19 43 6 - 1 2 Sylvain Levesque
Vaudreuil 38 27 22 5 5 2 1 Yvon Marcoux
Vercheres 10 49 31 6 - 3 1 Stephane Bergeron
Verdun
32 32 16 11 6 2 1 Henri-Francois Gautrin
Viau 43 21 19 11 5 1 - Emmanuel Dubourg
Vimont
30
34 26 7 - 2 1 Linda Tousignant
Westmount—Saint-Louis 60 6 16 9 8 0 1 Jacques Chagnon

 


"The Toss ups"
There are a lot of toss up ridings, so I will only touch up on the few that I have figured will have the top two parties within 3%. But, with so many variables and likely scenarios in place, these are really just a  random set of "toss ups":

Blainville
This Montreal suburban riding has a CAQ incumbent, which one might think would automatically make this a likely CAQ win, but the incumbent, Daniel Ratthe was elected as a PQiste and then switched parties. It wasn't the worst decision for Ratthe though, as this riding went for the CAQ's predecessor the ADQ by 9 points in 2007. And 2012 is looking a lot like 2007. And so, I picked Ratthe to win this race.

Champlain
This Mauricie riding went ADQ in 2007 by 14 points. However, the MNA crossed the aisle to join the Liberals and was subsequently defeated by the PQ in 2008. Even without an incumbent, the ADQ did fairly well getting 22% of the vote that election. I expect them to pick this up.

Drummond-Bois Francs
This Central Quebec riding is brand new, having been created out of Drummond and Richmond. The redistributed results from show the Liberals won 40%, the PQ with 32% and the ADQ with 25%. However, there is no incumbent running in this riding, and the CAQ candidate is a former ADQ MNA. With the right swing, the CAQ should pick up this seat.

Gouin
Now to the Island of Montreal, one of the more exciting races will be to see if Quebec Solidaire co-leader Francoise David will be able to win the party's second riding. With the way the party is polling on the island, they should be able to pick this seat up. And since they are targeting this seat, they are likely to win this by even more than I projected.

Groulx
This is another suburban Montreal riding that will be one to watch. It is an open seat that the PQ won by just 400 votes last election. However, the CAQ has a shot at winning the seat, which the ADQ won by 9 points in 2007. However, their MNA from that election is running for the Liberals. Despite that, this will be a CAQ-PQ race that I think the CAQ will prevail in.

Laporte
The south shore will also see a lot of fierce battles, including this one in Laporte. The Liberals are in danger of losing this seat which they have held since 1981.This area has been trending to the PQ over the years, and this year might be the year they finally win it back. However, I don't think the 16 point deficit they face will be enough to pick it up. 

Laurier-Dorion
This riding on the Island of Montreal is usually a safe Liberal seat. However, the PQ did manage to win the riding in a 2004 by-election, only to lose it again in the 2007 general. With the Liberals really tanking in Montreal though, I feel the PQ should be able to pick this seat up.

Lotbiniere-Frotenac
This is another new riding, located in the conservative Chaudiere-Appalaches region. The redistributed results from 2008 showed the Liberals getting 48% of the votes here and the ADQ in second with 29%. Will that be enough of a deficit for the CAQ to over come? I think so. 

Megantic
This is another new riding, nestled in the Eastern Townships on the US border. The Liberals would have won this seat over the PQ by 8 points according to the redistributed results from 2008. The area has never voted for the PQ before, however, but 8 points is not much to overcome. I believe the PQ will make history in this riding by winning it for the first time ever.

Mille-Isles
The Liberal incumbent is facing off against former BQ MP Robert Carrier who is running for the PQ in this Laval riding. Redistribution made this seat safer for the Liberals, but at this point no gerrymandering would be possible to help the Liberals in some areas. I believe Carrier should be able to win this seat.

Mirabel
This exurban riding west of Montreal seems like prime territory for the CAQ. The ADQ won the seat by 10 points in 2007, only to lose in 2008 by 25%. However, I think the CAQ should be able to pick this off from the PQ.

Nicolet-Becancour
This is another must-watch riding located on the south shore of the St. Lawrence half way between Montreal and Quebec City. This is a must watch race because it is the only realistic chance for the Option Nationale party to win a seat. Their leader, Jean-Martin Aussant is running in the riding and he also happens to be the incumbent MNA, having previously been elected as a PQiste. The ON is an orthodox separatist party that sees their victory as being a mandate for sovereignty. A riding specific poll showed Aussant with a good chance of winning, being behind the CAQ by 3 points. With that poll being the only reliable way of knowing how much his support is, I have no choice but to base my prediction on it. I believe the CAQ will in it in a close one.

Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue
The Liberals may be the incumbent party in this northern Quebec riding, but the numbers suggest this race will be between the CAQ and the PQ. The Liberal incumbent is not even running again. The ADQ never won this seat, but their 17% showing in 2008 was very strong for the party in that election, especially with no incumbency advantage. The party only won 27% in the previous election. It's tough to say how well the CAQ will do here, so the safe bet is on the PQ.

Saint Henri-Sainte Anne
This Montreal riding has gone Liberal in every election since 1981, but the PQ have been inching ever closer to getting it back. Having only lost the seat by 9 points in 2008, they are poised to win the seat for the first time since 1976. It will be close, but I think with declining fortunes, the PQ will win here.

Sherbrooke
Possibly the most important race to watch will be Sherbrooke, the Premier's riding. Somehow Charest has been able to win this seat over and over again, even as a federal Tory in 1993, when he was one of only two members of his party to get elected. Charest has had many scares, and this election will be his toughest. There have been three riding polls conducted here, and he trailed in all three. He has been closing the gap though. The first poll showed a 15 point disadvantage. The second showed a 13 point defeat, while the most recent showed a 2 point loss. My model shows the race as a tie. I am not sure if the most recent poll is an outlier or indicative of a large swing, but I believe the safest bet here is to call a PQ win, with Premier Charest being ousted.

Soulanges
My model shows this riding to have all three major parties within 1 point of each other. The CAQ probably wont win the seat though, as the ADQ was never able to win the seat. The PQ only lost the riding by 9 points in 2008, so they have a good shot to win the seat. However, I think the Liberals will probably eke this one out.

Verdun
On the surface, Verdun appears to be a safe Liberal seat. It has never voted for the PQ. However, this election may be very close there. The Liberals are down massively in Montreal, and their 13 point victory here in 2008 may get erased. The PQ are running a heavy weight in former MP Thiery St-Cyr. In the end though, history is on the Liberal's side, and they are the safe bet at retaining this seat.

Whew!

To wrap up this post, I thought I would post two maps to help you out as you follow the election this evening. The first map just labels each riding, while the second map is the redistributed results of the 2008 election with the current riding boundaries. Enjoy!

Oh, and polls close at 8pm. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter as I comment on the election results.

Quebec's 125 ridings

2008 redistributed election results

 

4 comments:

  1. Similar to the projections on my site in terms of overall numbers; but I wonder at some of the individual ridings, as the numbers seem way off?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Numbers might be off a bit, I suppose. I have been trying to ignore other predictions so that it wouldn't effect my predictions.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Good luck Earl, I see a lot of similarities between mine, yours, 308.com's, and Bryan Breguet's - between the four of us, we should get it right. The only person I know of doing projections that isn't as close is Junkiepolitico's, but its not too far off anyways.

    Hope to see you on Twitter tonight!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Good luck to you to! I'll have to make a compilation to see who is the best :D

    ReplyDelete