Friday, March 30, 2012

2012 Alberta election prediction (March 31) - part 1

Current prediction. Toss ups in grey.
The writs dropped for the 2012 provincial election in Alberta this week, and it's expected to be an exciting race. Alberta, well known for electing landslide majorities in its elections, may not do so this time. The governing Progressive Conservative Party is in danger of losing an election for the first time in 41 years. The election has been called for April 23.

Two recent polls have shown the upstart "Wildrose Party", led by Danielle Smith ahead of the governing Tories. The Wildrose Party is a right wing populist party, that has gone under a number of name changes and mergers since its founding as the Alberta Alliance in 2002. The party had some success, electing one MLA in 2004, but they lost it in the 2008 election. However, the party elected Ms. Smith in 2009 and has been moving up in popular opinion ever since. After a by-election win and a number of floor crossings, the party now is the third largest party in the Alberta legislature with four seats.

A poll released Wednesday by Forum Research showed the Wildrose Party in the lead with 41%, and the Tories in second at 31%. Yesterday, Campaign Research released a poll with similar numbers. Wildrose was at 40% and the Tories at 30%. If these numbers turn out true, the Wildrose Party may be heading for a majority.

Riding locations.


It was these two polls that formed the basis of my first Alberta election prediction. It should be known that predicting this election will be very hard, because the lack of history behind the Wildrose Party. But, we can look at the past successes by such right wing populist movements like the federal Reform Party. It is clear from these numbers that the Wildrose Party will sweep the province, but the question remains, where will the Tories win seats? Who are their strongest incumbents who will be able to withstand the Wildrose surge? Hopefully the campaign will reveal this. If you have any feedback, please let me know. Part of my prediction process is reader input!

Seat by seat prediction


Riding
PC
WRP
Lib
NDP
Oth
Projected winning candidate
Airdrie
25
58
6
11
-
Rob Anderson
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater
41
42
5
12
-
Travis Olson
Banff-Cochrane
17
40
28
17
-
Tom Copithorne
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock
39
43
7
8
2
Link Byfield
Battle River-Wainwright
48
42
4
5
1
Doug Griffiths
Bonnyville-Cold Lake
44
46
4
8
-
Roy Doonanco
Calgary-Acadia
31
54
7
8
-
Richard Jones
Calgary-Bow
29
48
16
6
1
Tim Dyck
Calgary-Buffalo
18
42
32
7
1
Mike Blanchard
Calgary-Cross
38
44
6
10
2
Hardyal Mann
Calgary-Currie
19
41
26
7
7
Corrie Adolph
Calgary-East
38
46
10
8
-
Jesse Minhas
Calgary-Elbow
29
43
19
5
4
James Cole
Calgary-Fish Creek
30
53
11
6
-
Heather Forsyth
Calgary-Foothills
31
45
17
5
-
Dustin Nau
Calgary-Fort
32
43
5
17
1
Jeevan Mangat
Calgary-Glenmore
14
57
22
7
-
Paul Hinman
Calgary-Greenway
28
52
11
9
-
Ron Leech
Calgary-Hawkwood
22
51
18
7
2
David Yager
Calgary-Hays
32
53
9
6
-
Wayne Anderson
Calgary-Klein
28
48
11
11
2
Jeremy Nixon
Calgary-Lougheed
36
49
10
5
-
John Carpay
Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill
31
47
15
6
1
Roy Alexander
Calgary-McCall
22
42
30
6
-
Grant Galpin
Calgary-Mountain View
9
43
39
8
1
Shane McAllister
Calgary-North West
24
57
11
6
2
Chris Challis
Calgary-Northern Hills
32
50
12
6
-
Prasad Panda
Calgary-Shaw
35
51
7
6
1
Jeff Wilson
Calgary-South East
34
53
7
6
-
Bill Jarvis
Calgary-Varsity
19
46
27
6
2
Rob Solinger
Calgary-West
26
55
12
6
1
Andrew Constantinidis
Cardston-Taber-Warner
9
80
4
7
-
Gary Bikman
Chestermere-Rocky View
28
54
10
8
-
Bruce McAllister
Cypress-Medicine Hat
28
45
17
10
-
Drew Barnes
Drayton Valley-Devon
34
47
9
10
-
Dean Shular
Drumheller-Stettler
34
49
8
9
-
Rick Strankman
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley
23
59
2
16
-
Kelly Hudson
Edmonton-Beverly-Clearview
26
28
6
38
2
Deron Bilous
Edmonton-Calder
23
31
5
41
-
David Eggen
Edmonton-Castle Downs
38
27
20
12
3
Thomas Lukaszuk
Edmonton Centre
17
29
31
23
-
Laurie Blakeman
Edmonton-Decore
32
31
22
15
-
Janice Sarich
Edmonton-Ellerslie
30
30
17
20
3
Naresh Bhardwaj or Jackie Lovely
Edmonton-Glenora
27
28
23
17
5
Don Koziak
Edmonton-Gold Bar
24
27
29
16
4
Josipa Petrunic
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood
17
22
4
53
4
Brian Mason
Edmonton-Manning
30
29
14
23
4
Peter Sandhu
Edmonton-McClung
34
26
29
8
3
David Xiao
Edmonton-Meadowlark
20
28
38
11
3
Raj Sherman
Edmonton-Mill Creek
39
30
15
16
-
Gene Zwozdesky
Edmonton-Mill Woods
26
32
21
16
5
Joanne Autio
Edmonton-Riverview
23
30
35
12
-
Arif Khan
Edmonton-Rutherford
29
29
26
12
4
Fred Horne or Kyle McLeod
Edmonton-South West
37
33
22
8
-
Matt Jeneroux
Edmonton-Strathcona
13
27
7
53
-
Rachel Notley
Edmonton-Whitemud
45
27
18
7
3
David Hancock
Fort McMurray-Conklin
33
38
18
10
-
Doug Faulkner
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
30
41
19
10
-
Guy Boutilier
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
41
44
4
10
1
Shannon Stubbs
Grande Prairie-Smoky
36
48
5
11
-
Todd Loewen
Grande Prairie-Wapiti
40
39
9
12
-
Wayne Drysdale
Highwood
23
61
7
9
-
Danielle Smith
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
30
49
8
12
1
Kerry Towle
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
36
42
10
12
-
Shayne Saskiw
Lacombe-Ponoka
39
44
8
9
-
Rod Fox
Leduc-Beaumont
37
43
9
9
2
David Stasiewich
Lesser Slave Lake
35
43
13
9
-
Darryl Boisson
Lethbridge-East
14
41
33
12
-
Kent Prestage
Lethbridge-West
13
42
29
16
-
Kevin Kinahan
Little Bow
23
61
6
10
-
Ian Donovan
Livingstone-Macleod
29
48
11
11
1
Pat Stier
Medicine Hat
15
45
28
11
1
Blake Pedersen
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
27
61
4
8
-
Bruce Rowe
Peace River
33
44
7
16
-
Alan Forsyth
Red Deer-North
29
45
15
10
1
Randy Weins
Red Deer-South
26
44
20
9
1
Nathan Stephan
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre
34
53
5
8
-
Joe Anglin
Sherwood Park
33
36
18
7
6
Garnett Genius
Spruce Grove-St. Albert
33
33
21
7
-
Doug Horner or Travis Hughes
St. Albert
26
38
28
7
1
James Burrows
Stony Plain
34
47
11
8
-
Hal Tagg
Strathcona-Sherwood Park
43
37
13
8
-
Dave Quest
Strathmore-Brooks
40
46
5
9
-
Alex Wychopen
Vermilion-Lloydminster
36
53
4
7
-
Danny Hozack
West Yellowhead
23
36
17
14
10
Stuart Taylor
Wetaskiwin-Camrose
40
45
6
10
1
Trevor Miller
Whitcourt-Ste. Anne
31
56
5
8


Maryann Chichak

This projection reduces the Tories to nine seats (plus three ties). All but four are tossups, within 5% of the next best party. The NDP would double its seat total to four, while the Liberals would also win 4. However, all but one are toss ups. This leaves the Wildrose Party at a whopping 67 seats (plus three ties). A significant number of these are still toss ups however, that can go back to the Tories if they gain any ground.

I should also mention that I am working on getting the redistributed numbers from the 2008 election, as Alberta redistributed their riding boundaries since then. Some of the figures in this chart are based on redistributed numbers, and some are estimates for the time being.

This wraps up part one of my projection. Part 2 will look at the election more in depth, and will also look at some key races. I hope to post part 2 in the coming days.

18 comments:

  1. Interesting predictions and not half bad. I think your prediction of Redford losing her seat is a little bold but I like it. I realize she had less than half in 2008, but it was a tough race against Craig Cheffins, being the Premier in an extremely red tory riding might make her tough to dislodge.

    I'm also curious did you factor in where the Wildrose Alliance did well in 2004 in places where they failed to run a candidate in 2008? They had some strong second places in the 2004 campaign.

    I had the Wildrose Alliance pegged at a ceiling of 55 seats before the writ was dropped based on intuition before the poll numbers started moving

    I also have a prediction that Raj Sherman could start pulling Red Tories who had moved to Allison back to the Liberals. If he moves even 5 to 9% of his vote back it could crater the PC vote completely.

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  2. Yes, I do have Redford losing her seat, but I could be off base there. What makes you suggest that her riding is "Red Tory"? Is there a certain demographic there?

    Yes, I did factor in the 2004 Alliance results. They did do well in some ridings that they didn't even have candidates in '08 for.

    I'm glad I wasn't too off base with Sherman winning. Wasn't too sure about him, but my reasoning was the same as yours.

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  3. Great Work, i think its going to be hard to gage WR; It will be like the NDP with PQ in the federal election. Polls are all over the map too... some with the PC ahead other with WR. If were looking for a comparison year it would be 1971 when the PCs swept the SoCreds out. If the PCs pick up some in the polls we might have an odd Centre Right-Right minority...

    With no base we can only assume that WR will hold the seats then have from floor crossers. Redford has a problem, there is very little room on the "moderate" side to grow and i honeslty think it was a mistake by the PCs not to have a leader who was more Right of centre for this very reason we are seeing now. Plus Smith is attractive... so there goes the male vote.

    Edmonton is going to be rediculous to predict and i see your seeing that... if the PCs tank the moderate votes (LiB, NDP) might bolt to her... or might bolt the otherway "real" progressive parties. I think your right the NDP is likely to have 4-6 seats; liberals 2-4 (i think they will take a huge hit)

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  4. After looking at today's abacus data poll, Elbow could very well be a Wildrose Alliance pickup and I think the rest of Calgary could be a landslide. They hit 50% support in Calgary and its certainly showing on the ground in the lawn sign war.

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    Replies
    1. Way to go WILDROSE. Keep up the hard work . PC hardly to do anything in the past to win. This time it will be different.

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  5. The Abacus poll just confirms the Wildrose momentum. If they keep it up, they might be able to wipe the PCs off the map.

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  6. If the Wildrose had a better leader I would consider them. But not with Danielle Smith. She has no children!

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    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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    2. What does children have to do with being a political leader? Oh yeah, nothing.

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  7. Earl's comment above betrays his bias.

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  8. I try to be as accurate as possible with my predictions, whether they go against my political leanings or not. I may disagree with Ms. Smith's politics, but I do think it's nice to see a refreshing new face and a new party on the scene in Alberta. I wish her, and all the parties the best of luck. I know my party won't win anyways ;-)

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  9. It is interesting that you mention the lawn sign war. In Calgary East, hands down Moe Amery the PC candidate has swept the area with signs. The Wildrose candidate, Jasvir (Jesse) Minhas, only has signs on public property. Driving through Marlborough, for example, you will see literally 25 signs in a row, some one house after the other, without a single Wildrose sign.
    This is the same throughout the riding.
    I think most people in Calgary East would be very surprised to see Amery lose--he seems very popular there.
    Maybe a Wildrose landslide of the whole city might sweep him away, but in anything approaching a close race, name recognition and a well oiled machine will put Amery over the top.

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  10. What have you done with the undecided vote. My political instincts tell me there are a lot of voters out there who will be influenced by the campaign.
    Regarding Sherman - nobody is commenting on his hollow campaigning. Since crossing the floor all he has done is complain, without offering any practical solutions. He admitts he's a one issue candidate which does not make much of a platform. Even people who vote by habbit will have a hard time supporting Liberals

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  11. The Liberals do appear to be tanking it, I agree. As for the undecideds, I'm ignoring them for the time being. We won't know how they'll go until the election.

    Oh, and I appreciate the comments everyone, but please stop with the personal attacks :)

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  12. When can we expect an update on your numbers?

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  13. Looking forward to seeing it.Thanks for doing this

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