Point Doulgas by-election: Post mortem

I haven't made many “post-election analysis” posts on this blog, but it's never too late to start, right? As expected, the NDP managed to win last week's provincial by-election in Point Douglas, Manitoba. A seat they have never lost, and which gave them their best result out of all ridings in the 2016 provincial election. Even though the NDP won, the by-election result was a bit of a disappointment for the party, as they won less than 50% of the vote for the first time in the riding's history.

Preliminary results show the NDP's Bernadette Smith winning 44% of the vote (down from 58% in 2016), with the Liberal's John Cacayuran winning 29% of the vote in second place (up from 19%). This was the Liberal's best showing in the riding since the 1990 election. The Tories finished third with 16% of the vote, only down a quarter of a percentage point from 2016. The Greens finished in fifth, behind the libertarian Manitoba Party. Overall turnout was down 10% from last year's election, to just 32%. While bad, it's not unusual of for by-elections to have turnouts in the low 30s, and considering how low turnout usually is in this riding, it's not that bad.

Elections Manitoba published the preliminary results by polling division, which has allowed me to delve deep into the results to see just what happened on election day. I sure hope they used the same poll map as in the last provincial election.

Race and income by census tract (2011 National Household Survey)

Except for the one polling division in the southeast corner of the riding, Point Douglas' electoral geography is usually quite homogeneous, as the NDP has historically swept almost every poll in this riding. Last week's by-election did identify a political cleavage in the riding, that I believe is most likely based on ethnic lines. The Liberals ended up winning 8 of the 40 polls in the riding, and tying the NDP in one other. Most of these poll wins came from the northwest part of the riding, which has a lower Aboriginal population than the rest of the riding, and a higher Filipino population. This part of the riding is over one-quarter Filipino, which is the highest proportion of Filipinos in the riding. Most of the rest of the riding has a large Aboriginal population (with about 50% of the population in these areas being Native), and these areas stuck with the NDP, who just so happened to be running an Aboriginal candidate. The poll in the southeast corner of the riding stuck with the Tory candidate. This one poll is in an area that is very different from the rest of the riding socioeconomically, with an average income of over $60,000 compared to the low $20,000 range in most of the rest of the riding.

The swing map reinforces my theory of Filipino voters switching their allegiances to the Liberals. Some polls in the northwest of the riding saw up to 30% swings away from the NDP. In fact the poll which was the NDP's best in 2016 was even won by the Liberals! That's not to say it was all bad news for the NDP, as a few polls actually swung in their direction. One poll even saw a nearly 30% swing away from the Liberals! These swings to the NDP came from areas that are the most Aboriginal in the riding, and are also among the poorest parts of the riding.

Contributing to the election results was a likely turnout difference between Filipino and Aboriginal voters, as the northwest part of the riding saw the highest election day turnout, while the poorest and most Aboriginal parts of the riding tended to see the lowest turnout. In fact, there is a clear correlation between swing and turnout; areas that swung the most to the Liberals had a higher turnout, while those areas that had the lowest turnout swung to the NDP (or at least had a lower swing to the Liberals).

What does this all mean for Manitoba politics going forward? Well, not too much, as both the Liberals and NDP are leaderless at the moment. However, it does expose a potential ethnic cleavage in Winnipeg's north end, which may cut into the NDP's dominance of this working class part of the city. We've already seen the Liberals not only make inroads, but sweep this part of the city in the last federal election. I'm not saying they will do this on the provincial level, but winning over Filipino voters will help the Liberals win a few more seats in the region.

Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner federal by-election today

Today marks the first federal by-election of the 42^nd Parliament, just as Canada's new Liberal government enters its sophomore year. Voters in the southern Alberta riding of Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner head to the polls to elect a new Member of Parliament, following the death of Conservative MP Jim Hillyer who died last Spring due to cardiomyopathy. Hillyer was first elected to Parliament in 2011 in the neighbouring riding of Lethbridge, and switched to the Medicine Hat riding for the 2015 election when its boundaries shifted to encompass his hometown of Raymond, located just south of Lethbridge. While it pains me to speak ill of the dead, Hillyer's short tenure in Parliament was criticized by even those in his party for his 'poor service of his constituents'. When he first ran for office in 2011, he was criticized for not attending any candidate debates and for embellishing the truth in his campaign literature. It did not matter though, as he was easily elected in both 2011 and 2015 (though in a mostly different riding the second time), due to running in true blue Conservative country: southern Alberta.

Map of the riding

Since the 2015 federal election, the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals have enjoyed a tremendous honeymoon period, and are still polling nearly ten points higher than what they won in the last federal election, witch much of this coming at the expense of the (for all intents and purposes) leaderless NDP. The Conservatives, who are also leaderless, have not been hurt by The Liberal honeymoon, as they are polling at about what they won in 2015. Trudeau remains a very popular figure across the country, and even has a large swath of adoring fans in southern Alberta. While he is still mostly detested in that corner of the country, a rally he attended two weeks ago in Medicine Hat attracted nearly 2000 people.

Geography

Map of Medicine Hat neighbourhoods

Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner can be found on the southern and southeastern boundary of Alberta. It is shaped like a backward “L”, with Saskatchewan on the east, and Montana on the south. In the west, the riding begins at the Belly River, and wraps around the Lethbridge area and Taber County, ending at CFB Suffield in the north. While the riding appears to be rural, and many have claimed it is, this is a misnomer. The City of Medicine Hat dominates the riding, as it is home to nearly two thirds of the riding's population. The rest of the riding is mostly empty ranching land, or oil and gas wells. Other than Medicine Hat, the riding is home to a few smaller communities, such as Cardston, Magrath, Raymond and Bow Island, while the Medicine Hat suburb of Redcliff is the riding's second largest city or town. The riding is also home to Canada's largest Indian Reserve (second largest in population), Blood #148, a Blackfoot reserve which is home to over 4000 people. The people in Blood #148 will be voting in their second federal by-election in just over two years, as they were previously located in the riding of Macleod which had a by-election in June 2014.

Demographics

Except for about a 9% Aboriginal population, the riding is overwhelmingly White. But despite this, the riding does have some interesting cultural and ethnic demographics. The riding has the highest ethnically German population in the country, with 36% of people claiming it. Germans immigrated to southern Alberta in the late 19^th and early 20^th centuries, and have long since been integrated into the country. Still though, 7% of residents indicate German as their first language in the census. This makes German the riding's #2 language, and some rural areas in the central part of the riding have large numbers (over 40%) of German speakers. After German, the riding is also home to significant populations with English, Scottish and Irish backgrounds. 10% of the riding claims some sort of Aboriginal background, most of this being Blackfoot. Blackfoot is the native tongue of about 1% of the riding.

The riding also has an interesting religious makeup, as it is home to Canada's largest Mormon population. Over a quarter of the riding is considered “Other Christian”, with much of this is Mormon, which was also the religion of Jim Hillyer. Mormons began settling the western part of the riding in the late 19^th Century, and built the first Mormon Temple outside the United States in Cardston in 1887. Hillyer's hometown of Raymond was also settled by Mormons. The “other Christian” group also includes a sizable Mennonite population who are the descendants of some of the early German settlers to this region. In total, 72% of the riding is Christian, including 21% being Catholic, and 10% being United Church. Over one quarter of the riding has no religion.

The riding is poorer than the province as a whole. The median income is about $30,000 compared to $36,000 for all of Alberta. The average income is $40,000 which is over $10,000 less than the provincial average. While the riding has a reputation for cattle ranches and oil and gas extraction, the dominance of City of Medicine Hat in the riding has resulted in the leading industries in the riding being health care and social assistance, retail trade and construction.

History

A riding known as “Medicine Hat” existed all the way from 1908 until the most recent redistribution before last year's election. Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner was originally going to be named just “Medicine Hat”, but the addition of the Cardston and Warner areas, which have not traditionally been lumped in with Medicine Hat in one riding meant that a name change was preferred.

From 1905 when Alberta joined confederation until 1908, Medicine Hat, then a town of 3000 people, was located in the riding of “Alberta (provisional district)”. In 1908 a riding called “Medicine Hat” was first created. This first Medicine Hat riding included a large swath of southeastern Alberta, including Lethbridge (then a home to 2000 people). In the north, the riding extended as far as (but not including) Hanna and as far as Strathmore in the west. Subsequent redistributions shrunk the riding down further, with a new Lethbridge riding being created in the west. The Cardston and Warner parts of the current riding of Medicine Hat—Cardston--Warner were usually located in the Lethbridge riding, but the Warner area was added to Medicine Hat in the 1966 redistribution but was removed once again in 1987, joining back with the Lethbridge riding. In the 2013 redistribution, the Cardston area was added to the riding for the first time since the 1908 redistribution and the Warner area was also added back to the riding. Both of these regions were previously in the Lethbridge riding. The 2013 redistribution also brought in the Blood 148 Indian Reserve which was previously located in the Macleod riding. To compensate, the Medicine Hat riding lost Taber and Newell Counties (which includes Brooks) to the new riding of Bow River. These counties have traditionally been part of the Medicine Hat riding, and this region had been continuously part of the riding since 1976. Also in 2013, the riding lost a small strip of territory in the far north of the riding (between the Red Deer River and the Suffield Air Force Base) to the new riding of Battle River—Crowfoot. 

MPs for Medicine Hat and Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner

In its early days, the riding was competitive for the Liberals and even was won by the Progressive Party in 1921. However, following World War II, right wing parties have won every single election in Medicine Hat except for the first Trudeaumania in 1968. That election was an anomaly though, as the riding's MP, Bud Olson had switched from the quickly dying Social Credit Party to the Liberals, and was elected thanks to the splitting of the right wing vote between the SoCreds and the Progressive Conservatives. Olson had only beat his Tory opponent by 200 votes, and was shown the door in the next election when the Social Credit vote collapsed and Progressive Conservative candidate Bert Hargrave won. The Tories held the seat from that point on until 1993 when the Reform Party won the seat for the first time. Reform became Canadian Alliance which merged with the Progressive Conservatives in 2003 to form the Conservative Party and the Conservatives have won this seat ever since.

The 1993 election was the last to see the winning candidate receive less than 60% of the vote, and was the last time the Liberals won more than 20% of the vote. The riding usually votes overwhelmingly for the main right wing candidate, and only sees somewhat competitive elections when the right wing vote is split. In recent elections, the true battle has been for second place. In 2015, the Liberals finished second with 18% of the vote. In both 2008 and 2011 the second place party was the NDP which won 11% and 13% respectively.

Political geography

Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner is a very, very Conservative riding. Except for the Blood 148 Indian Reserve, every single poll voted Conservative in 2015. Even in the city of Medicine Hat. And outside of the Blood 148 reserve, every single poll has voted Conservative in every single election since the Conservative merger in 2013. And most polls are won by quite large amounts.

The rural areas of the riding are much more Conservative than Medicine Hat itself. All of the rural counties in the riding gave Hillyer at least 80% of the vote in 2015, and only three rural towns did not give him at least 80% of the vote. Home to a large number of Mennonites and Mormons, Cardston County, in the riding's far west was the best municipality for Hillyer, where he won 89% of the vote. His worst municipality was Medicine Hat, where he still won 64.5% of the vote. However on the Blood Reserve, he won a minuscule 2.5% of the vote. There, the NDP (despite finishing third in the overall vote) won 62%, with the Liberals coming in second with 34%. Medicine Hat was the best municipality for both the Liberals and the NDP who won 22% and 9.5% of the vote respectively.

Within the city of Medicine Hat itself, Hillyer's best neighbourhood was Saamis Heights, a newer suburb on the city's south side, where he won 73% of the vote. Hillyer's worst neighbourhood was the Downtown, where he won 47% of the vote. Downtown Medicine Hat was the best neighbourhood for the NDP's candidate, who won 18% of the vote. The best neighbourhood for the Liberal candidate was the Southeast Hill / South Flats area, on the south side of downtown, where they won 31% of the vote. 

2015 federal election results by community

Overall, the best poll for the Conservatives was poll #170, which covers the community of Leavitt, south of Cardston. Leavitt is a Mormon village in Cardston County, which was founded by Thomas Rowell Leaveitt, who had fled the United States after a crackdown on polygamy laws. Hillyer won 94% of the vote there, with just ten people voting for all of the other parties combined. On the other end of the spectrum, there were three polls on the Blood Reserve where Hillyer won a grand total of zero votes (polls #148, #149 and #150). These polls cover the northeastern half of the reserve, and are close to Lethbridge.

Google Streetview photo of Leavitt, Alberta

Google Streetview photo of the Blood Reserve

When it comes to federal elections, voters in the Medicine Hat area are very inelastic. That is, they tend to not change their votes too often, even when the rest of the country is. Despite the Conservatives losing a lot of support across the country in 2011, they actually gained a swing 0.1% in the riding. The Liberals did see an uptick in support, receiving a swing of 6.8%, but this pails in comparison to the 21% national swing they won. Overall, the two party average swing to the Liberals was 3.3%. The Liberals saw the biggest swings in their direction in Medicine Hat and in the Blood Reserve. The Conservatives saw some reasonable swings in more rural areas, and especially in Cypress County. 

In the last provincial election, the election results were not as homogeneous as in past federal elections. The NDP orange crush was big enough to not only win a few polls outside of the Blood reserve (which they won by nearly 90% of the vote), but an entire riding: Medicine Hat, which covers the northern and central parts of the city. Within the Medicine Hat provincial riding, the NDP won the central part of the city, while the Wildrose won the more suburban parts, and the PCs won a few polls in the Norwood and Meadowlands neighbourhoods. Outside of Medicine Hat and the Blood First Nation, the NDP did not win any polls. Most of the rural polls voted for the Wildrose Party, except for a few scattering polls that the Tories won.

Historically, the provincial riding of Cardston-Taber-Warner which overlaps the western third of the Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner riding has been very favourable to right wing third parties. In the 2004 provincial election, it was the only riding to vote for the Alberta Alliance (which later became the Wildrose Party), which helped give that party the credibility which led to its future success.

Outlook

The next MP for Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner will likely be Conservative candidate Glen Motz, who is a retired Medicine Hat police officer. Motz is a social conservative, who became a police officer after following “God's call”, and has a bachelor's degree in religious education. His main opponent is Liberal candidate Stan Sakamoto, a Medicine Hat businessman who is credited as being the first Japanese-Canadian to be born there. Despite a Justin Trudeau rally in Medicine Hat that attracted 2000 people, it would be a huge surprise if Sakamoto could pull this off. Despite going NDP in the provincial election, Medicine Hat is a fairly conservative city, and the rural part of this riding is about as conservative as it gets.

Let's not forget there are other candidates running as well. The NDP is running Bev Waege, who was the party's candidate in Cypress-Medicine Hat in the 2015 election, but was not swept up in the orange wave, finishing third. The Greens are not running any candidates, but look for the Christian Heritage Party candidate (and leader) Rod Taylor to do well here- and by that I mean possibly finish ahead of the NDP. The Libertarians are also running a candidate, as is the Rhinoceros Party.

While I predict the Conservatives will easily win this by-election, I predict the Liberals will win a few polls in central Medicine Hat. They will also likely win the Blood 148 Reserve back from the NDP, as they did in the 2014 Macleod by-election (albeit with comically low turnout). We'll see just how well they do when the polls close at 8:30 Mountain Time (10:30 Eastern).

Swingometer based prediction of the Saskatchewan election

Overall prediction. Green = Saskatchewan Party; Orange = NDP

Voters in Saskatchewan are heading to the polls today in the 28^th general election in the province's history. The governing conservative “Saskatchewan Party” (Sask Party for short), buoyed by the province's continued economic boom hopes to maintain their massive majority in the province's Legislative Assembly. The Sask Party, under the leadership of Premier Brad Wall has led the province since 2007, when they ousted the New Democratic Party (NDP), who had in turn ruled the province prior to that since 1991.

Background

The last provincial election in 2011 saw the Saskatchewan Party win a landslide majority, winning 49 seats to the NDP's nine. The large thumping was largest landslide since 1982, and the Sask Party's 64% share of the popular vote was the highest in the province's history. The province had fallen in love with Brad Wall, and were enjoying the province's new found economic prosperity. Since then, Wall has become the poster boy of conservatism in Canada, especially since the defeat of Prime Minister Harper last fall, and the defeat of countless conservative provincial governments across the country. Every other province is now led by either a Liberal or an NDP Premier (though the Liberals in BC are notably right-of-centre).

Wall's popularity has made it difficult for the NDP to gain any traction in opposition. Their defeat in 2011 forced its leader, Dwain Lingenfelter to resign, which was helped by the fact that he lost his Regina Doulgas Park seat. Lingenfelter would be replaced as leader by Saskatoon Massey Place MLA Cam Broten, who has tried to renew the party, perhaps exemplified by a new swanky retro looking logo. However, the party has lingered in the polls in the mid 30s for much of the last four years, nowhere close to the Sask Party which has not dipped under 50% since the last election. All the polls now show the Sask Party to be leading the NDP at around 60% to 30%.

Since 2003, the province has only elected members of either the right wing Saskatchewan Party and the left wing NDP. The provincial Liberals have been nearly dead in the water since last winning a few seats in 1999. In the least election, the Liberals ran just nine candidates in the 58 seat legislature, and won a grand total of 0.6% of the vote. The Greens were the third party in that election. They ran a full slate of candidates, winning nearly 3% of the province wide vote. But for the Greens, Saskatchewan's brand of prairie populism is an anathema to the party.

While the Liberal brand is on the rise across the country, thanks to the federal Liberals still enjoying a honeymoon period, the provincial Liberals in Saskatchewan have failed to really capitalize on this. The party is running a full slate in this election, but most polls show them in mid-single digits, often behind the Greens. It is unlikely the Liberals will win a seat, though their leader, Darrin Lamoureux is running in a brand new riding and is not facing any incumbents. In all likelihood though, this election will see all of its seats go to either the Sask Party or the NDP. 

The Swingometer! Click to enlarge.

The Swingometer

Considering Saskatchewan is basically a two-party province, a fun way to make a rough prediction of the election outcome is to use what is called a “swingometrer”, something that viewers of British elections might be familiar with. A swingometer shows the uniform swing needed for a particular party to win a seat. My swingometer shows the two-party swing needed from the result of the 2011 election. The two-party swing is calculated as the average percentage point change each of the two parties has to shift in a particular seat for the opposing party to win it.

As fun as swingometers are, this election will likely not be all that fun to use it. All four polls that have come out just before the election show a very small swing in the NDP's favour from the result of the last election. The most NDP friendly of these polls was conducted by Mainstreet Research, which showed a 1.6% swing from the last election (it gave the NDP 31%, down 1% from the last election and the Saskatchewan Party 60%, down 4.3% from the 64.3% they won in 2011 – giving a swing to the NDP of 1.6%). This swing would net the NDP just one extra seat (Saskatoon Fairview), albeit just barely. The other three polls are less favourable to the NDP, showing even smaller swings in their direction. Insights West's poll showed the smallest swing, just 0.1% to the NDP. Except for the Mainstreet poll, none of the other pollsters show a swing that would be large enough for the NDP to gain any seats. Average the four polls, and the swingometer tells us that this election will produce an exact status quo result. Due to the recent seat redistribution, this would give the Saskatchewan Party two extra seats from their 2011 result (51 seats) and the NDP one extra seat (for a total of ten).

To win a majority government, the NDP would need a 17.4% uniform swing in their favour, which would give them the 31^st riding on the swingometer, Saskatchewan Rivers. The NDP would need a 22.2% swing to win the riding of Yorkton, which is the province's best bellwether, which has voted for the winning party since 1964. For Brad Wall to go down in defeat, the NDP would need a uniform swing of 31.6% to claim his riding of Swift Current. All this is a moot though, as the NDP is not going to come close to winning a majority.

So, are we headed for the status quo? Maybe. But, the pollsters are showing different regional swings, which might put some seats in play. Also keeping in mind that the swingometer is a measure of uniform swing, and we all know that in reality, ridings do not swing in tandem. If we take a look at the regional breakdowns in the recent polls, we see that most of the swing in the NDP's favour is coming from Regina. An average of three regional polls suggests a 3.7% swing to the NDP in the province's capital. This would be enough to claim the riding of Regina Douglas Park (2.5% swing needed), the seat that former NDP leader Dwain Lingenfelter lost to the Sask Party's Russ Marchuk in 2011. Marchuk will not be running for re-election, and redistribution has made the seat much more NDP friendly, so a win there would not be unexpected for the New Democrats.

Seats to watch

Outside of Regina Douglas Park, none of the regional polls suggest any other seats will change hands using the swingometer. Of course, that's not to say that none will. Here are my picks for seats that could change hands (other than Regina Douglas Park):

- Moose Jaw Wakamow: This riding was won by the Saskatchewan Party in 2011, but boundary changes have made it a notional NDP seat. The Sask Party has the incumbency advantage, and the NDP is not running the same candidate as they did in 2011, so this is a possible “pick-up” for the governing party, albeit just a notional one. The Saskatchewan Party only needs a 0.7% swing to win this seat.

- Saskatoon Fairview: Using the swingometer, this is the NDP's #1 target. They would only need a 1.6% swing to claim the seat. However, regional polls in Saskatoon suggest the New Democrats may not even see a swing in their favour in the city. Making it harder for the NDP is they are up against Jennifer Campeau, the minister of Central Services, who is the incumbent.

- Prince Albert Northcote: On the swingometer, this is the next seat on the NDP's target list after Saskatoon Fairview. The Sask Party won it in a close race in 2011. The NDP is not running the same candidate however, so it might be hard to defeat the Sask Party incumbent. The NDP needs a swing of 1.8% to win it.

- Regina Coronation Park: Two of the three regional polls in Regina give the NDP a large enough swing to pick up this seat, which the New Democrats would need 4.8% swing to pick up. They would have to defeat cabinet minister Mark Docherty to claim it though.

Wild card: Regina Pasqua: This brand new riding in the southwest corner of Regina is, on paper a somewhat safe Saskatchewan Party seat. The Sask Party would have won it with 56% of the vote in 2011 had the riding existed then. However as it is a new seat, they have no incumbent in the race. And this is the riding where Liberal leader Darrin Lamoureux is running. Considering the Liberals are polling in the upper lower digits in Regina though, it is unlikely that they will win it.

Outlook

Using my swingometer, and looking at the regional swings in recent polls, I predict that the Saskatchewan Party will win a landslide majority, winning 50 seats to the NDP's 11. My swingometer-based prediction is that the NDP will win one more seat than they would have in 2011 on the new boundaries (Regina Douglas Park).

If the polls are correct, then we are looking at a very boring election, with very few – if any – ridings changing hands. Brad Wall, the most popular premier in the country is destined for his third straight majority. Polls close at 8pm Central Standard Time (10pm Eastern Daylight Time).

Seat by seat prediction (ridings coloured by how they would have voted in 2011 on the new boundaries):

June 30 Federal by-election profiles: Macleod

Location in Alberta

Federal by-elections will be held in four ridings today: two in Ontario (Scarborough—Agincourt and Trinity—Spadina) and two in Alberta (Fort McMurray—Athabasca and Macleod). I have been doing profiles of each of the four ridings in the run-up to by-election day. Today I will be profiling Macleod.

Macleod is a rural riding located in the southwestern part of Alberta. It contains many small towns south of Calgary, and includes a number of the city's western and southern exurbs. The riding is one of the safest seats in the country for the Conservatives – it was their fourth best seat in the 2011 election. The riding has been vacant since last November, when its Member of Parliament, Ted Menzies, a junior cabinet minister, resigned to become a lobbyist. Menzies, a farmer from Claresholm, has represented the riding since 2004.

Geography

Macleod is a fairly large riding, located in the foothills of southern Alberta. It runs from a line roughly following the Bow River in the north, to Waterton Lakes National Park in the south. The western boundary is the provincial border with British Columbia. In the southeast, the border follows the Old Man and St. Mary Rivers, while its northeastern boundary wraps around Vulcan County. In the north, the riding follows the Calgary city limits as they were in the last redistribution in 2003. Since then, the City of Calgary has annexed some territory in its south and west, which means Macleod also covers a small part of the city of Calgary. While Macleod is mostly a rural riding, much of its population lives in exurban Calgary communities on the city's west and south sides.

The riding's largest city is Okotoks (actually still incorporated as a town), which is a fast growing exurb south of Calgary. Other Calgary exurbs in the riding include the towns of Turner Valley, Black Diamond and High River. Also, a small part of the Town of Cochrane is in the riding (an area that has been annexed since the last redistribution). Other major communities in the riding include Vulcan, Claresholm, Crowsnest Pass, Pincher Creek, and the riding's namesake, Fort Macleod (which was originally named Macleod). The riding also includes a number of large Indian Reserves, including the largest reseve in Canada (by area), Blood 148. It is also the second most populous Indian Reserve in the country. Other reseves include Peigan 146, Siksika 146, Eden Valley 216 and Tsuu T'ina 145.

The riding includes a number of protected areas, mostly along the western boundary with British Columbia, in the Rocky Mountains. The largest of these protected areas is the Elbow-Sheep Wildland in Kananaskis. Other major protected areas include the Don Getty Wildland, the Bluerock Wildland and the Bob Creek Wildland. Outside of these protected areas, most of the land in the riding is covered by Agricultural lands, including many cattle ranches.

Demographics

Macleod is mostly White (84%), but has a sizable (12%) Aboriginal population. Most of the Aboriginal population in the riding is Blackfoot, but there are also Sarcee and Stoney populations as well. The only Sarcee Reserve (Tsuu T'ina Nation) in Canada is in Macleod. Christianity is the religion of two-thirds (67%) of the riding. One third of Christians in the riding are Catholics, while one in six Christians belong to the United Church. 6% of the riding is Anglican. The largest non Christian religion is Traditional Aboriginal spirituality, at 2%. 29% of the riding is irreligious. The riding is one of the poorest in the province, but considering Alberta's wealth, it is not among the poorest in the country. Its median individual income is $33,000 while it's median household income is $77,000.

Owing to Calgary's growing exurban communities, Macleod is seeing a large population increase. It grew 15% between the last two censuses, which is above the Alberta average of 11%. Half of all homes in the riding have been built since 1991. Construction is the largest industry in the riding, at 10% of the labour force. 

Most common language after English by municipality (or Census Tract)

88% of the riding has English as its mother tongue. The next largest mother tongue is German at just 4%. Blackfoot is the mother tongue of 2% of the population. German is the largest non-English language in most of the riding, especially in rural areas. There is an especially large German concentration in Cardston County (40%) and Vulcan County (31%). The Villages of Carmangay (36%) and Arrowwood (30%), which are surrounded by Vulcan County also have large German populations. French is the largest non-English language in a number of municipalities as well, especially areas along the BC-border in the Rockies. The largest French population in the riding is in Kananaskis, where 8% of residents have it as a mother tongue. Blackfoot is the main non-English language on the three Blackfoot reserves in the riding: the Blood Tribe, the Piikani (Peigan) Nation and the Siksika Nation. Stoney is the largest language (55%) on the Eden Valley Reserve while Sarcee is the largest native tongue in the Tsuu T'ina Nation.

History

The most recent iteration of Macleod was created for the 1988 election out of Bow River and Lethbridge ridings. The only close-ish race since then was 1988, when the up-start Reform Party gave businessman Ken Hughes a run for his money. Hughes, a Progressive Conservative won with 51% of the vote, to Reform's Ken Copithorne who won 31%. It was Reform's third best riding in the country in an election where they won no seats. In 1993, when Reform became a mainstream party, its candidate was Grant Hill, a doctor, who defeated Hughes in a landslide – by over 17,000 votes. Hill won again in 1997 and in 2000 (for the Canadian Alliance), increasing his popular vote total in each election. In all three of his electoral victories, the Progressive Conservatives finished a distant second.

In 2004, Hill did not run again. The newly merged Conservative Party ran Ted Menzies, who won a massive three-quarters of the vote. He won the seat over Liberal candidate Chris Shade by over 27,000 votes. Menzies slightly increased his share of the vote in 2006, defeating Liberal Bernie Kennedy by nearly 33,000 votes. In 2008, Menzies increased his share of the vote once again, winning 77.4%. The next best candidate was from the Green Party this time, Jared McCollum who won 9%, over 31,000 votes behind Menzies. In 2011, Menzies increased his vote share for his third straight election, winning 77.5%. This time the NDP finished second place. Menzies defeated their candidate, Janine Giles by nearly 35,000 votes.

Macleod is a very, very, very safe Conservative seat. Opposition parties are lucky to break even 10% here. All three opposition parties have had their chance at second place. Since 1988, the best showing for the Liberals was in 1993 when they won 16%. Their worst showing was in 2011 when they won less than 4% of the vote. For the NDP, their best showing was in 2011 when they won 10%, and their worst was in 1993 when they won less than 2%. The Greens had their best showing in 2008 when they finished in 2^nd place with 9%.

Members of Parliament

Alberta (Provisional District)

Before Alberta became a province in 1905, it was the District of Alberta in the Northwest Territories. It was represented by one MP.

- D.W. Davis, Cons. (1887-1896)

- F. Oliver, Liberal (1896-1904)

Calgary

For the 1904 election, the southern part of the District of Alberta was divided into two ridings: Calgary and Alberta. The border between the two ridings would run between Vulcan and Nanton. Calgary was the northern of these two ridings, containing not only the City of Calgary, but also Vulcan, Okotoks, High River, Black Diamond and Turner Valley. Nanton, Stavely, Claresholm, Pincher Creek and Fort Macleod would be in the Alberta riding.

- M.S. McCarthy, Cons. (1904-1908)

Macleod

The first iteration of Macleod was carved from the southwestern corner of the Calgary riding and the western half of the riding of Alberta. The riding covered a similar territory as today. It ran from Calgary in the north up to Lethbridge in the east. In 1914, its eastern boundary was shifted, lobbing the Vulcan area off, removing it from the riding. In 1924 the boundaries were only altered slightly, and in 1933 the Vulcan area rejoined the riding at the expense of Okotoks, Black Diamond and Turner Valley which were removed. In 1952, the northern boundary was shifted back northwards to include these communities again.

- Jn. Herron, Lib.-Cons. (1908-1911)

- D. Warnock, Liberal (1911-1917)

- H.M. Shaw, Unionist (1917-1921)

- G.G. Coote, Prog. (1921-1926); U.F.A. (1926-1935)

- E.G. Hansell, Soc. Cred. (1935-1958)

- L.E. Kindt, Prog. Cons. (1958-1968)

Crowfoot

In the 1966 redistribution, the western half of Macleod was transferred to the riding of Rocky Mountain, while the rest of the riding was mostly redistributed between Crowfoot and Lethbridge. Rocky Mountain was a huge riding running from the US border in the south along the western border with BC northward, almost as far as Grande Prairie. Black Diamond and Turner Valley would be redistributed into Rocky Mountain. The Okotoks, Nanton, High River, Vulcan, Stavely and Claresholm areas would be redistributed into Crowfoot (which extended as far eastward as the Saskatchewan border). The Fort Macleod and Pincher Creek areas were redistributed into Lethbridge.

- J.H. Horner, Prog. Cons. (1968-1979)

Bow River

In the 1976 redistribution, Crowfoot's western boundary was shifted far to the east, excluding almost all of what is now in Macleod. The Fort Macleod and Pincher Creek areas joined the riding of Lethbridge—Foothills. Everything else in what is now Macleod could be found in the new riding of Bow River, which encircled the City of Calgary, and also included Banff National Park and Drumheller.

- G.E. Taylor, Prog. Cons. (1979-1988)

Macleod

Macleod was re-created for the 1988 election. It covered much of the same territory as the previous Macleod riding. Its boundaries did not change much between then and now.

- K.G. Hughes, Prog. Cons. (1988-1993)

- Grant Hill, Reform (1993-2000); Cdn. Alliance (2000-2003); Prog. Cons. (2003-2004); Cons. (2004)

- T. Menzies, Cons. (2004-2013)

Future

The next election will see Macleod disappear once again. 86% of the riding will be redistributed into the new riding of Foothills. In turn, almost all of Foothills will be carved solely from Macleod. The remaining 14% of Macleod will be redistributed into other ridings. Vulcan County and the Siksika Nation will be removed, joining the new riding of Bow River. Some exurban Calgary communities south of Cochrane will join the riding of Branff—Ardrie, the Blood Tribe will join the riding of Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner, while the newly annexed portions of Calgary will join Calgary Midnapore and Calgary Signal Hill.

Removing the Blood Tribe and the Siksika Nation is the main reason why the new riding of Foothills will be ever so slightly more Conservative than Macleod. The changes also make Foothills less NDP and Liberal friendly.

Political geography

Results of the 2011 election by polling division

Despite the fact that the Conservatives typically win every poll in the riding, there is a large degree of polarization in the riding. White areas vote heavily Conservative, while areas with a large First Nations population do not (at least nowhere close to the same degree). In 2011, there were 13 polls where the Conservatives won less than 38% of the vote, while in all the rest of the polls, the Conservatives won at least 60%. In not one single poll did they win anything between 38% and 60%. Of those 13 polls where the Conservatives won less than 38%, just one was not a First Nations community, Kananaskis. Kananaskis is a resort village in the Rocky Mountains in the northwest corner of the riding.

In 2011, the only opposition party to win any polls was the NDP. The NDP won 10 polls, all on Indian Reserves. In 2008, when the Greens finished 2^nd, they won one poll: Kananaskis. The NDP won 12 polls and once again, they were all on reserves. In 2004 and 2006 it was the Liberals that benefited from the First Nations vote, as every single opposition poll was a Liberal poll on an Indian Reserve. In 2000, both the Liberals and NDP won Indian Reserve polls, and in 1997 the Progressive Conservatives also won some Indian Reserve polls. Provincially, the Progressive Conservatives also do well in Indian Reserves, due to strategic voting against the right wing Wild Rose Party, which is very popular in this part of the province.

2011 election results by regions, towns and Indian reserves of the riding

For the Conservatives, they seem to do the best in areas with large German populations. In 2011, their best region in the riding was Cardston County where they won 87% of the vote. This is followed by Vulcan County where they won 86%. Both of these regions have large German populations. Their weakest region was the Blood Tribe, where they won 13%. The NDP's best region was the Blood Tribe, where they won 57% of the vote. They also won 57% in the Peigan Nation. For the Greens, their best Region was Kananaskis, a poll which they won in 2008. For the Liberals, their best region was also the Blood Tribe, where they won 23%. They did poorly in German regions, winning less than 1% in both Cardston and Vulcan Counties.

Strongest and weakest polls (2011)

(I've included the Green Party this time, because they finished ahead of the Liberals)

Strongest polls:

-Conservatives: Poll #5-2 (94%). This poll covers a new subdivision in the Town of Cochrane, and some rural areas south of the town. The subdivision, known as the Willows of River Heights, was annexed by Cochrane since the last redistribution.

-NDP: Poll #17 (79%). This poll covers most of the Tsuu T'ina First Nation. The reserve contains two other polls, which cover the Redwood Meadows Townsite, which is actually a White community on the reseve, but with its own administration. However, poll #17 covers the rest of the territory on the reseve, controlled by Tsuu T'ina Nation Council.

-Greens: Poll #1 (24%). This poll covers the resort village of Kanananskis, known for being the location of the 2002 G8 Summit. The Greens actually won the poll in 2008, but the Tories won it in 2011.

-Liberals: Poll #163 (35%). This poll covers one of the six polls on the Blood Tribe Indian Reserve. The Liberals came within 2 votes of winning the poll, which the NDP won. The poll is located east of the main community on the reserve, Standoff.

Weakest polls:

-Conservatives: Poll #161 (3%). This poll is one of six polls located on the Blood Tribe Indian reserve. This poll in particular is the furthest eastern poll on the reserve, and is located adjacent to the City of Lethbridge.

-NDP: Poll #66-1 (1%). This poll covers a rural area east of Okotoks in the Municipal District of Foothills. The poll contains a couple of new subdivisions, including Ravencrest Village.

-Greens: The Greens won 0 votes in five polls. Four of the five polls were on Indian Reserves (#35, #136, #161, #164) and one was poll #5-2 south of Cochrane.

-Liberals: The Liberals won 0 votes in three polls: Poll #157 east of Fort Macleod, Poll #95 in Vulcan and Poll #101 in Carmangay.

2008-2001 Swing

Two party (Conservative vs. NDP) swing (2008-2011) by polling division

Despite Ted Menzies increasing his vote share in 2011 (+0.1%), the two-party swing was against him, as the NDP increased its vote share by 3.6%. The average two-party swing was thus 1.8% from the Conservatives to the NDP. This would explain why most of the NDP saw a swing towards them in most of the riding. One poll in particular stands out in terms of swing to the NDP: poll #17 (Tsuu T'ina First Nation), which was also their best poll in 2011. A huge increase in turnout (almost three-fold) from 2008 to 2011 helped the NDP gain a 41.6% swing in this poll, which they lost in 2008. Interestingly, other reserves in the riding saw a swing to the Conservatives, against the NDP. This is particularly observable in the Siksika Nation and in the Piikani Nation. Outside the reserves, most of the areas that swung Conservative were in rural areas in the central part of the riding. Meanwhile, the Calgary exurbs saw a swing to the NDP, for the most part.

Outlook

Barring some sort of miracle (if you're not Conservative), the next MP for Macleod will be the Conservative candidate, John Barlow who is a newspaper editor from Okotoks. Barlow won the Tory nomination in a hotly contested race in which the National Firearms Association (Canada's NRA) endorsed his opponents. Barlow was also the Progressive Conservative candidate in the riding of Highwood (Okotoks and High River) in the last Alberta election. He had the pleasure of running (and losing) against Wildrose Party leader Danielle Smith.

The sacrificial lambs running against Barlow include Lethbridge resident Aileen Burke who is running for the NDP, former Alberta Evergreen Party leader Larry Ashmore who is running for the Greens and Okotoks regulatory technician Dustin Fuller who is running for the Liberals. The interim leader of the Christian Heritage Party, David J. Reimer is also running. One would expect the CHP to do better in rural southern Alberta, but they have had little success in the past. Perhaps they will get some protest vote, as some conservatives may think Barlow is not right wing enough for the riding.

Forum Research released their final poll of the riding last night. The result shows Barlow at 54%, which would be the worst showing for the Tories in this riding since the party was created before the 2004 election. The Liberals were second in the poll at 15%, which would be their best result since 1993. “Other” was third in the poll at 11% (the CHP is the only “other” party running), indicating that there could be a high right wing protest vote. Both the NDP and the Greens were tied at 6%. For the Tories, anything less than 60% can be seen as a loss in such a safe seat. For the other parties, the big race is for second place, considering the NDP, Greens and Liberals have all held that honour in recent elections.

Update and expectations

That same Forum poll showed some updates for the other ridings as well:

- Trinity—Spadina: Liberal 45%, NDP 35%, Conservative 11%, Green 9%. The NDP has narrowed the gap in this riding, but it still looks as though the Liberals will win it.

- Scarborough—Agincourt: Liberal 48%, Conservative 37%, NDP 10%, Green 4%. The Conservatives have narrowed the gap here as well, but the Liberals should still win this safe seat.

- Fort McMurray—Athabasca: Liberal 41%, Conservative 33%, NDP 13%, Other (Libertarian) 8%, Green 5%. This is the first poll Forum was able to do in this riding that has been very difficult to reliably poll due to its transient population. If this result holds true, it would be a huge upset, as this riding was the 14^th best Conservative seat in the country in the last federal election. However, a huge caveat must be put on that poll, and I'm not sure if I quite believe it.

For the Liberals a “win” tonight would mean picking up Trinity—Spadina, but also finishing at least second in Fort McMurray—Athabasca and Macleod (winning the former would be a “huge win”). With Adam Vaughan expected to win in Trinity—Spadina, just picking it up won't be enough to “win the night”. For the Conservatives, a “win” would be to make inroads in Scarborough—Agincourt and also defend their two Alberta seats. And for the NDP, it's going to be a tough night, where a “win” looks to be impossible. At this point keeping Trinity—Spadina would be huge, but just keeping it close would be a win. But losing their 2^nd place finishes in Alberta would negate that.

Well, that's it for this round of by-elections. Polls close in all four by-elections at 9:30 Eastern.

 

June 30 Federal by-election profiles: Fort McMurray--Athabasca

Location of Fort McMurray--Athabasca in Alberta

Federal by-elections will be held in four ridings on June 30th: two in Ontario (Scarborough—Agincourt and Trinity—Spadina) and two in Alberta (Fort McMurray—Athabasca and Macleod). I will be doing profiles of each of the four ridings in the run-up to by-election day. Today I will be profiling Fort McMurray—Athabasca.

Fort McMurray—Athabasca is a huge riding located in the northeastern corner of Alberta. Its total area is over one quarter the size of the entire province. Over half of the population of the riding lives in the “urban service area” of Fort McMurray, a rapidly growing community on the frontier of Alberta's infamous oil sands. The oil sands play a huge part in the economy of the riding, which covers most of the Athabasca Oil Sands bitumen deposit in the surrounding area. Fort McMurray itself is not even an incorporated municipality, as it was amalgamated into the massive Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo in 1995. In the last election, the riding had the lowest voter turnout of any riding in the country.

 The riding was vacated in January when its MP, Conservative Brian Jean vacated it to enter private life. Jean, a lawyer by trade, had represented the riding since 2004. 

Map of the riding

Geography

The riding extends from the Northwest Territories border in the north to the communities of Athabasca and Lac La Biche in the south.  It extends as far west as the community of High Prairie and its eastern border is the provincial border with Saskatchewan. Most of the riding is empty of population, being covered by forests and lakes. The riding is home to Canada's largest national park, Wood Buffalo, in the far north of the riding.  Most of the population is concentrated in Fort McMurray in the centre of the riding. Outside of Fort McMurray, almost the entire remaining population lives in the south of the riding, along the “Northern Woods and Water Route” corridor. This region includes the communities of High Prairie, Slave Lake, Athabasca and Lac la Biche. This area is also dotted by numerous lakes, including Lesser Slave Lake, the second largest lake entirely in Alberta.  The largest lake entirely in Alberta, Lake Claire, is also in the riding.  Part of the much larger Lake Athabasca is also in the riding. Both Lake Claire and Lake Athabasca are in the sparsely populated far north of the riding. The riding is also home to its namesake, the Athabasca River, which bifurcates the riding running from the southern border to Lake Athabasca in the northeast.

Demographics 

Fort McMurray—Athabasca has the largest Aboroignal population of any riding in the province. Almost one quarter (22%) of the riding reported being Aboriginal in the 2011 Census.  36% of the Aboriginal population is of Metis descent. Most of the Aboriginal population is Cree, but there are a small handful of Dene communities as well. Two thirds of the population (66%) is white, while there is a small South Asian (4%), Filipino (2%) and Black (2%) community. English is the mother tongue of 81% of the riding. Cree is the next largest language group at 5% and French is at 3%. 

Most common mother tongue after English by census subdivision and Fort McMurray

Cree is spoken across the riding, mostly in the numerous Indian Reserves that dot the map. There is a particularly high concentration of Cree speakers in the Opportunity Municipal District in the central part of the riding. One reserve – Janvier – southeast of Fort McMurray has Dene being the first language of half of its residents. French is the most common language after English in a number of municipalities. The highest concentration is in Northern Sunrise County, but Sunset Beach, South Baptise and Lac la Biche County all have large French populations. French is also the second language in Fort McMurray (represented by the circle on the map), but Cree is the second language of the rest of the Wood Buffalo Regional Municipality. German and Ukrainian is also the second language of some of the municipalities in the south of the riding. In West Baptiste, 1 in 5 residents has Ukrainian as their mother tongue.

Christianity is the religion of two thirds (67%) of the population, with about half of that being Catholic. Anglicanism is the largest Protestant denomination at 7%. Islam is the largest non-Christian faith at 3%, while one quarter (26%) has no religion.  Due to the Oil Sands, there is considerable wealth in the riding. Its median income is $47,000 while the median household income is $123,000. 22% of the labour force works in “mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction”, which is the largest industry in the riding. The riding is experiencing a large boom in population. Over one third of all dwellings were built between 2001 and 2011.

History

Fort McMurray—Athabasca was created in 1925 as “Athabaska”. It changed names in 1968 to “Athabasca” and then to “Fort McMurray—Athabasca” in 2004. The riding has been consistently represented by right wing parties since 1962. The Progressive Conservatives held it until the rise of the Reform Party in 1993 when David Catters was elected. He represented the Reform Party, then the Canadian Alliance and then the Conservative Party until resigning in 2004. Brian Jean, a Conservative, has held the seat ever since. Since then Jean has never received less than 60% of the vote. The 2011 election saw his best result ever, when he won 72% of the vote. Historically, the Liberals have been the second best party in the riding, and even won the riding frequently before 1962. However, they have not been competitive in the riding in decades, even when finishing 2nd. The NDP has also finished 2nd in the riding on numerous occasions, including the two most recent elections. However, the NDP has never been competitive in the riding's history, even in their best showing in 1988 when they won 27% of the vote. Since then, 2011 was the NDP's best performance when they won 13%.

Members of Parliament:

Edmonton

Part of what is now in Fort McMurray—Athabasca (the Athabasca and Lac la Biche area) was represented by the riding of “Edmonton” in the Northwest Territories. North of this region was in the “District of Athabasca”, which had no representation in Parliament. The riding covered the northern third of the “District of Alberta” including the city of Edmonton.

- F. Oliver, Liberal (1904-1908)

Victoria

Alberta entered Confederation in 1905, and the northeastern part of the province would become part of the riding of “Victoria”. This riding basically contained everything northeast of Edmonton, including what was then just the trading post of “McMurray”.

- W.H. White, Liberal (1909-1917)

Edmonton East

In 1917, most of the region was transferred to the new riding of Edmonton East, which also included the eastern part of Edmonton.

- H.R. Mackie, Unionist (1917-1921)
- D.F. Kellner, Prog. (1921-1925)

Athabaska / Athabasca / Fort McMurray—Athabasca

Athabaska was created for the 1925 election. At the time, its western border was mostly the fifth meridian of the Dominion Land Survey, which runs between Slave Lake and Athabasca. Its southern border mostly followed the North Saskatchewan River. In 1933 its southern boundary was altered slightly, moving further north. When the riding name was changed to “Athabasca” in 1966, its western boundary was moved far to the west – all the way to the Peace River, while its southern boundary was moved to the north. This would be the first time that the communities of Slave Lake and High Prairie would be in the riding.  Oddly enough, the community of Athabasca was moved out of the riding. Athabasca re-joined the riding in 1976, and the riding's western boundary was moved eastward to generally where it is today. In 1987, the southern boundary was altered again; The Lac la Biche / Bonnyville / Cold Lake area was moved into the new riding of Beaver River, while the Westlock area moved into the riding.  The 1987 borders remained unaltered until 2003 when the current boundaries were adopted.

- C.W. Cross, Liberal (1925-1926)
- D.F. Kellner, U.F.A. (1926-1930) 2nd time
- J.F. Buckley, Liberal (1930-1931)
- P.G. Davies, Cons. (1932-1935)
- P.J. Rowe, Soc. Cred. (1935-1940)
- J.M. Dechene, Liberal (1940-1958)
- F.J. Bigg, Prog. Cons. (1958-1968)
- Paul Yewchuk, Prog. Cons. (1968-1980)
- J.W. Shields, Prog. Cons. (1980-1993)
- D.C. Chatters. Reform / Cdn. Alliance / Cons. (1993-2004)
- B.M. Jean, Cons. (2004-2014)

Future

While Fort McMurray—Athabasca is not too overly populated, it was still too large to remain intact following the 2013 redistribution process. In addition, one can anticipate that the riding will become mcuh more populous with the expansion of the Alberta Oil Sands (in fact, the riding has grown quite rapidly between 2006 and 2011, at a rate of 14.5%).

For the next election, Fort McMurray—Athabasca will be abolished, with most of its territory (and population) being redistributed into the new riding of Fort McMurray—Cold Lake. As the name suggests, it will include the Cold Lake area which is currently in the riding of Westlock—St. Paul. 19% of the riding (including the Slave Lake and High River area) will be redistributed into the new riding of Peace River—Westlock. 11% of the riding (including the Athabasca area) will be transferred to the new riding of Lakeland. The successor riding of Fort McMurray—Cold Lake will be ever so slightly more Conservative than Fort McMurray—Athasbasca, as it loses some First Nations communities where the Conservatives are relatively weak.


   

Results of the 2011 federal election by polling division

Political geography

Fort McMurray—Athabasca – like almost every riding in Alberta – is extremely Conservative. In 2011, Jean won nearly every poll in the riding, most by large margins; the only polls won by opposition parties covered First Nations communities.  The NDP won four polls, and the Liberals just one. In previous elections the Liberals have won more polls across the riding, but typically only in areas with large Aboriginal populations, especially in the far north and western parts of the riding. Even in the more urban parts of the riding the Liberals and NDP have been shut out in recent elections. Out of all the major centres in the riding, only one poll – in Lac la Biche – has gone anything but Conservative, and that was in 2004 and 2006. However, the Liberals did very well in Fort McMurray back in 1997, but it was not enough to compensate for the large Reform Party numbers in the rest of the riding.

For a rural riding, Fort McMurray—Athabasca has a large transient population due to the growth of the Oil Sands. Much of the population comes economically depressed regions in the country, especially from Newfoundland. This transient population is the most likely cause of the very low voter turnouts in the riding. It's possible that if this transient population actually voted, that the Liberals would do better in the riding- the Liberals are traditionally strong in Atlantic Canada, especially in Newfoundland (perhaps this is why the Liberals did well in Fort McMurray in 1997).

One big caveat is the issue of the environment.  The environmental community has been very critical of the Oil Sands, and with the Liberals focusing more on environmental issues in recent elections, it could make (and has made) the party toxic in places like Fort McMurray. (One reason the Liberals tend to be toxic in Alberta in general).

In 2011, the Conservatives won every single region of the riding. Their best numbers came in Athabasca County, in the south central part of the riding. They won 83% of the vote there. Their worst region was the Opportunity Municipal District and Northern Sunrise County area, where they just won 54%. This region includes a lot of First Nations Communities, and is home to the riding's only Liberal poll. This region was also the best region for the Liberals, where they won 21% of the vote. The NDP's best region was rural Wood Buffalo Regional Municipality (the part of the RM outside Fort McMurray), where they won 24% of the vote. This area includes two of the four polls the NDP won.

2011 election results by regions, towns and neighbourhoods of the riding

Strongest polls (2011)

Conservative: Poll #148 (90%) - This poll covers the community of Breynat in Athabasca County. The community is fairly isolated, being 81 km northwest of Lac La Biche – but it is on the main highway to Fort McMurray.

NDP: Poll #14 (55%) - This poll covers the community of Fort Chipewyan in the far northeast of the riding. “Fort Chip” is in the Wood Buffalo Regional Municipality; it's not an Indian Reserve, but it is home to a large Aboriginal population. It is one of only two polls the NDP won a majority in.

Liberal: Poll #5 (48%) - This poll covers the community of Loon Lake and is the only poll the Liberals won. Loon Lake is a Cree Indian Reserve in the western part of the riding.


Weakest polls (2011)

Conservative: Poll #105 (23%) - This poll covers the Drift Pile River 150 Indian Reserve in Big Lakes Municipal District.

NDP: Poll #144 (3%) - This poll covers the western half of the Village of Boyle in Athabasca County.

Liberal: Poll #102 (0%) - The Liberals didn't win a single poll in this rural area south of High Prairie in Big Lakes Municipal District.  The area is fairly remote, and covers the area around the community of Banana Belt, which you won't find on many maps.

     

Swing (2008-2011)

Between 2008 and 2011 the riding saw a small swing from the NDP to the Conservative of just 2.2%. Both parties saw a small increase in their share of the vote, but the Tory increase was greater. This small swing to the Conservatives didn't happen in all parts of the riding, though. Certain communities saw swings to the NDP. This occurred in some of the urban areas, and in some of the First Nations communities. Part of the Thickwood Heights neighbourhood in western Fort McMurray saw a  significant swing to the NDP. This area is home to new-ish developments, but by no means is it the newest part of the fast growing community. The newer parts of Fort McMurray (such as Timberlea) actually saw a swing to the Conservatives.

Two party (Conservative vs. NDP) swing (2008-2011) by polling division

Outlook

Running for the Conservatives is former Athabasca County Deputy Reeve David Yurdiga. Yurdiga represented Division #7 on Athabasca County Council, which covers the Grassland area. Running for the NDP is Fort McMurray resident Lori McDaniel, who is a Suncor employee and a union representative. Running for the Liberals is another Fort McMurray resident Kyle Harrietha, who is the general manager of a local Metis organization. Running for the Greens is Lac La Biche teacher Brian Deheer. There is a fifth candidate who might do well, and that is Tim Moen who is running for the Libertarians. Moen is notable for a number of campaign posters that went viral, such as one saying “I want gay married couples to be able to protect their marijuana plants with guns”. No quote can possibly sum up libertarian ideology better than that!

Forum Research has attempted to poll this riding, but has been unable to receive an adequate sample size to publish any reliable results. This has much to do with the highly transient population and the generally low voter turnout in the riding as well. Just 41% of riding residents bothered to vote in the last federal election. Numbers like that are typical for by-elections in other parts of the country. One can only speculate how low turnout will be for this by-election. Not only is it at the beginning of Summer, but it falls right between a weekend and Canada Day, when many people will be on vacation. And since a huge percentage of the riding – to borrow a Newfoundland expression - “come from away” and are likely to be away, this race will likely see a record low turnout; my guess is somewhere in the 20s.

With no reliable polling, I can only make a prediction on the outcome of this race. The riding's history points to an easy Conservative victory here. However, the Liberals have been polling well in Alberta recently, which means this riding could be in play. The expected low turnout will be the real wild card here. It helps the Liberals' cause that they are running someone from Fort McMurray and the Conservatives are not. Fort McMurray - where a majority of the riding's residents live - is the riding's bellwether, and if the Liberals can do well there, they may be able to win the riding. Even though they finished second in this riding in 2011, I do not believe the NDP will be a factor – it will be a race between the Conservatives and the Liberals.