Mount Pearl North by-election preview

Voters in the riding of Mount Pearl North head to the polls today to elect a new member of the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. The riding has only been vacant since October 11, when its MHA, Steve Kent resigned to become the Chief Administrative Officer of the City of Mount Pearl. Kent was a member of the Progressive Conservative Party, and had been Deputy Prime Minister of the province under the Premiership of Kathy Dunderdale from 2014 to 2015. He was also mayor of Mount Pearl from 2003 to 2007, prior to being elected to the House. Mount Pearl North will be the first by-election held in the province since the Liberals swept into power in 2015, when they won a landslide majority government, capturing 31 of province's 40 seats. Mount Pearl North was one of only seven seats the Tories had won in the election.

Profile

Mount Pearl North is a suburban riding that covers the northern half of the City of Mount Pearl, the second largest city in the province, and the third largest municipality (after St. John's and the Town of Conception Bay South), located west of St. John's. The riding also covers two small subdivisions in St. John's itself: Brookfield Plains and Edison, which are made up of newly-built homes. The riding is shaped like an upside-down “U”, surrounding the central part of Mount Pearl. It covers the older part of the city in the east (mostly built before 1980), and newer subdivisions in the west and north which were mainly built in the 1980s, and since the 1990s respectively. The riding is more wealthy than the rest of of the province, with the average income being in the mid-$30,000 range (compared to $27,000 for the province) and is overwhelmingly White, with most residents being of English or Irish descent. 

MHAs since 1956

The riding is generally a safe Tory seat; it has elected Progressive Conservatives continuously since 1971 except for a by-election in 1988 which elected Liberal Eric Gullage and the subsequent provincial election in 1989 when he was re-elected (though, at the time the riding, then known as “Waterford-Kenmount” also covered what is now the riding of St. John's West). Gullage lost the seat in 1993 to Harvey Hodder, making the riding only one of 16 ridings to elect a Tory MHA that election. Hodder was re-elected in the new riding of Waterford Valley in 1996, a riding with similar borders to today's Mount Pearl North. The riding was one of only nine Tory seats won in 1996, with Hodder winning the seat by a nine-point margin. Hodder continued to represent the seat until Kent's election in 2007, winning increased majorities in 1999 (13 points) and 2003 (53 points!). Kent's first election win was a huge win, thanks to the coattails of the very popular Premier Danny Williams, winning the seat by a whopping 76 point margin over his Liberal opponent. He was re-elected in 2011 by a 54 point margin over the NDP candidate, and faced stiffer competition in 2015 against Mount Pearl mayor (Kent's successor) Randy Simms, whom he beat by nine points.

In the 2015 election, Kent won most of the polls on election day, but Simms won a scattering of polls across the riding. Kent's best neighbourhood was the new Brookfield Plains subdivision, where he won 59% of the election day vote. Simms only won one neighbourhood, that of Masonic Park which covers a nursing home which has since been shut down. 

Results by neighbourhood from the 2015 federal and provincial elections

In the federal election, the Tories were a non-factor, as the race was between incumbent NDP Member of Parliament Ryan Cleary and his Liberal opponent, Seamus O'Regan in the greater riding of St. John's South—Mount Pearl. O'Regan defeated Cleary, and easily won the election day polls corresponding to Mount Pearl North 60% to 35%. O'Regan won all but two polls in the area, with his best neighbourhood being Masonic Park (67%) and his worst neighbouhood being the Old part of the city, where he still won 55% of the vote (to Cleary's 41%).

Outlook

The front-runner in this race has to be the Tory candidate, Jim Lester, a farmer who owns and operates “Lester's Farm”, which is located on the southeastern border of the riding. He was the Tory candidate in the neighbouring Mount Pearl Southlands seat in the 2015 election, which he lost narrowly. The Liberal candidate in the by-election is St. John's businessman Jim Burton, who had previously sought the federal Liberal nomination in St. John's South—Mount Pearl, but withdrew in favour of O'Regan. The NDP candidate is Nicole Kieley, who is the executive director for the Newfoundland and Labrador Sexual Assault Crisis and Prevention Centre. There is a fourth candidate, businessman Hudson Stratton who is running as an independent.

Since winning the 2015 election, the popularity of the governing Liberals took a huge hit in 2016 after the government introduced a number of austerity measures, including the closing of most of the province's libraries. However, Liberal Party support has rebounded, but it is not back to where it was at the time of the last election. Both the Tories and the NDP have benefited from the Liberal's unpopularity, but Tory support is now back to where it was at the election, and the NDP, which currently has no leader is not fairing that much better. Needless to say though, I do not expect the Tories to lose this ordinarily safe-Tory seat.

Polls close at 8:00pm local time, which is 6:30 Eastern Time.

Newfoundland and Labrador municipal elections today

Newfoundlanders and Labradorians head to the polls today to elect municipal governments across the province’s 276 municipalities. Up for election are municipal councils; mayors, councillors and in some cases deputy mayors.

Across the province...

Among the province’s largest communities (over 5000 people), only the Town of Clarenville is seeing its mayor re-elected with no opposition. However, two other towns over 5000 people will not have an election for mayor, as only one candidate stepped forward to replace an outgoing mayor. Former Tory MHA Terry French has been acclaimed as mayor of Conception Bay South and town councillor Craig Scott has been acclaimed as mayor of Torbay. 

Municipalities on Newfoundland

Municipalities of Labrador

In addition to Conception Bay South and Torbay, the municipalities of Gander, Happy Valley-Goose Bay, Labrador City, Mount Pearl, Portugal Cove-St. Philip's and St. John's will all definitely be getting new mayors, as their incumbent mayors are not running for re-election. In Labrador City, they've switched voting systems, so that there will no longer be a direct election for mayor at all. Instead, voters there will get up to seven votes to elect the seven members of town council, and the candidate with the most votes of those seven will be elected mayor.

Most communities in the province elect their councils on an at-large basis, with no municipal ward system. In fact, only two municipalities have municipal wards: St. John’s and Conception Bay South. St. John’s has five municipal wards, and Conception Bay South has four.  In both cases, these wards elect one member of council, but both cities also have at-large councillors elected across the city, who do not stand in one particular ward.

St. John's

As St. John’s is by far the largest city in the province, and the province’s capital, most of my focus on today’s municipal elections will be there. St. John’s has an 11 member city council consisting of the mayor, deputy mayor, five councillors elected from each of the five city wards, and four councillors elected on an at-large basis. Both the mayor and deputy mayor positions are elected at-large as well.

St. John's mayoral candidates

The race for mayor of St. John's could be quite interesting, as incumbent mayor Dennis O'Keefe is not running for re-election. The race to replace him is between three candidates: former mayor Andy Wells, city councillor Danny Breen and community activist Renee Sharpe.

Wells, a former union negotiator, served as mayor of St. John's from 1997 until resigning amidst controversy in 2008, after being appointed as chair of the provincial public utilities board. He had initially refused to resign after his appointment. While he was mayor, he was known for his numerous scandals and outspoken, abrasive personality. He decided to run for mayor after being suspended from his position with the public utilities board due to criticizing the St. John's City Council using a government email.

Danny Breen has served on St. John's City Council since 2009, representing Ward 1. He was re-elected in 2013 without opposition. Breen is seen as a contrast to Wells, being non-confrontational and consensus building. He is a Tory; he ran for the Progressive Conservative Party in a 2014 by-election in Virginia Waters, losing to Liberal Cathy Bennett.

Renee Sharpe is an ironworker welder with a local union, and her grandfather was mayor of Paradise. She is also a self-defence instructor and has worked with a number of community organizations. Not surprisingly, her platform is the most left wing of the three candidates.

(Oh, and there's also a tongue-in-cheek campaign for “Finn” a five year old Australian cattle dog, whose campaign on YouTube has become something of a sensation. Finn is an acting dog, having appeared in a movie and on TV.)

The 2009 election was also an interesting race, between mayor Dennis O'Keefe, a Tory and city councillor Sheilagh O'Leary, a New Democrat. O'Keefe won the election with 57% of the vote to O'Leary's 42%, which is relatively close for municipal election standards, and closer than polls had predicted. O'Keefe won four of the five wards in the city, doing especially well in the city's conservative western and southern suburbs. O'Leary won the remaining ward (Ward 2), which covers the downtown and part of the east end, an area that typically votes NDP both federally and provincially.

Compared to 2009, which was a race between two conservative leaning candidates, O'Keefe increased his vote share by a slight amount in four of the city's five wards. However, his vote share took a large hit in Ward 2, going from 56% to 42%, thanks to the presence of O'Leary's candidacy. Overall, O'Keefe saw a slight decrease in his share of the vote, thanks entirely to the vote shift in Ward 2. Special thanks to the City of St. John’s elections office who sent me the ward-by-ward results of the 2013 mayoral race (data not available on the city's website).

O'Leary got back onto council in a by-election last year (in Ward 4), and is looking for a promotion as she is running for the deputy mayor position against Michelle Worthman. 

New St. John's Ward map

St. John's' ward boundaries were changed since the last election:
- Ward 1 loses the Pleasantville neighbourhood (to Ward 2) but gains the Penetanguishene neighbourhood (from Ward 4)

- Ward 2 loses the Cornwall Crescent and Albany Street areas (to Ward 3) but gains Pleasantville (from Ward 1)

- Ward 3 gains the Cornwall Crescent and Albany Street areas from Ward 2

- Ward 4 loses Penetanguishene from Ward 1

- Ward 5 does not have any boundary changes.

On council, the incumbents in three wards are not running for re-election. As noted, Ward 1 councillor Danny Breen is running for mayor and Ward 4 councillor Sheilagh O'Leary is running for Deputy Mayor. Ward 3 will also see an open race, as its councillor, Bruce Tilley is resigning. One notable candidate in that ward is Olympic gold medal winning curler Jamie Korab is running. As a fellow curler, I wish him the best!

In terms of predictions, I'm thinking that Danny Breen will probably win the mayoral election quite handily, as I think St. John's voters aren't going to want to deal with Wells' shenanigans again (crazier things have happened though, you only have to look south of the border to know what I mean!). I do wonder if Wells will even place second, as Sharpe appears to be running a more active campaign. We will know for certain after polls close at 8pm local time (6:30 Eastern).

Virginia Waters, Newfoundland by-election today

Location of Virginia Waters in St. John's

A provincial by-election is being held today in the riding of Virginia Waters, Newfoundland and Labrador. The riding had been represented by former Progressive Conservative Premier Kathy Dunderdale, but she resigned the seat on February 28, following her resignation as premier a month earlier. Her resignation had followed a huge hit to her personal popularity in the province, but also in her party's support. Since her resignation, the province has been run by Tom Marshall, who will serve as interim Premier until the Tories can elect a leader in July, with the winner to become the province's 12^th Premier.

Profile

Virginia Waters is located in St. John's northeastern suburbs, containing the neighbourhoods of Wedgewood Park, Ricketts Bridge, Penetanguishene and Airport Heights. The riding runs roughly from the shores of Virginia Lake in the east to the tip of Windsor Lake in the West, and is named for both the lake, and the Virginia River, which flows through the district.

The riding contains mostly newer housing developments, and is growing in population. The Airport Heights/Penetanguishene area is especially growing, seeing a 44% population increase between 2006 and 2011. That area is home to newer homes, most being built since 1991. The rest of the riding is slightly older, with homes being mostly built in the 1980s.

The riding is also quite wealthy, with the median income of the riding being around $40,000, and the average income being around $50,000. Compare this to the provincial numbers of $25,000 and $35,000 respectively, and the St. John's totals of $30,000 and $40,000 respectively. The area around Virginia Lake is especially wealthy.

Demographically, the area is similar to the rest of St. John's. It has a large Catholic plurality, and ethnically is dominated by those of English and Irish ancestry. 

Political geography

2011 results by polling division

In the 2011 election, when Dunderdale was much more popular, she was able to sweep the riding, winning all but one poll, where she still managed to tie the NDP candidate. Dunderdale won the district with 60% of the vote, well ahead of her NDP opponent, who won 30%. She did even better in the 2007 election, where she won 73% and the NDP won 13%. The Liberals finished third in both elections winning 8% in 2007 and 10% in 2011.

The lone polling division that Dunderdale did not outright win in 2011 was poll #17, which corresponds to the Torbay Estates Apartments. Both her and her NDP opponent, David Sullivan won 44% of the vote there. Dunderdale's best poll was #26, which consists of a number of wealthy homes on the shores of Virginia Lake in the district's far east end. In that poll, she won 75% of the vote.

Federally, the district is located in the riding of St. John's East, which is represented by popular NDP MP Jack Harris. In both the 2008 and 2011 federal elections, Harris swept the area, winning every single poll by large margins. His worst area in 2011, was in the neighbourhood around Virginia Lake, where he “only” won 60% of the vote, much lower then the rest of Virginia Waters where he averaged more than 70% of the vote. The area hasn't always gone NDP however. The Tories won most polls in the area in the 2006 federal election, while the Liberals won the area in 2004. In 2000, the Progressive Conservatives swept Virginia Waters, while in 1997 the Tories edged out a win against a strong NDP campaign.

History

Dunderdale has held the district since 2003, when she defeated the Liberal MHA, Walter Noel. Noel had represented the area from 1989 to 2003. Before 1989, the area was a Tory strong hold, as the St. John's area has historically been very pro-Tory dating back to the province joining Confederation in 1949. Traditionally, Catholics and the upper class in Newfoundland have backed the conservatives, and they have historically been concentrated in the St. John's area. They opposed confederation in 1949, while the poorer, Protestant class outside the city supported confederation, and in turn the Liberals who also supported confederation. In recent decades this political cleavage has been less evident, as the Liberals have been able to win in the St. John's area, however traces of the old political polarization in the province still remain.

Since 1971, the riding has been a perfect bellwether riding, voting for the winning party in every election since.

MHAs

St. John's East

J.G. Higgins, Prog. Cons. (1949-1951)

J.D. Higgins, Prog. Cons. (1951-1959)

J.J. Greene, Prog. Cons. (1959-1962)

St. John's East Extern

W.J. Browne, Prog. Cons. (1962-1966)

T.V. Hickey, Prog. Cons (1966-1975)

Pleasantville

J.W. Dinn, Prog. Cons. (1975-1989)

W. Noel, Liberal (1989-1996)

Virginia Waters

W. Noel, Liberal (1996-2003) continued

Mrs. K.M.M. Dunderdale, Prog. Cons. (2003-2014)

Outlook

The candidates

Running to replace Dunderdale for the Tories is St. John's city councillor Danny Breen. Breen is the councillor for Ward 1 which covers much of Virginia Waters. Breen has represented Ward 1 since 2009 when he defeated the incumbent councillor Art Puddister by a narrow margin. He was acclaimed in the 2013 election. Running for the NDP in the riding is another local politician, Sheilagh O'Leary. O'Leary sat on city council from 2009 to 2013, when she ran for mayor of St. John's. O'Leary was elected as one of four at-large councillors in 2009, when she won more votes than any of the other candidates running for an at large position, far ahead of the three incumbents running. When O'Leary ran for mayor last year, she was endorsed by the federal NDP, an unusual event for municipal politics. She ran a strong campaign against the popular Tory mayor, Dennis O'Keefe, winning 42% of the vote. Running for the Liberals is local businesswoman Cathy Bennett, who is the CEO of the Bennett Group of Companies. Bennett ran for the Liberal leadership in 2013, finishing in third place.

The most recent province-wide poll in Newfoundland was released in March, and was conducted by Corporate Research Associates. It showed the Liberals at 53%, the Tories at 33% and the NDP at just 13%. If this poll is accurate, than it is safe to say that the Tories are in trouble in a riding like Virginia Waters, which has been a reliable bellwether in the province, voting for the governing party in every election since 1971. However, all three parties are running strong candidates, which makes the result of today's by-election somewhat harder to predict.

Both the Tories and the NDP have suffered from internal struggles over the last couple of years that have really hurt their poll numbers. The Liberals however, which were nearly wiped out in the last two elections, have returned in full force. This is due to not only a divided opposition, but also an Atlantic Canada-wide resurgence for the Liberal brand, thanks in part to federal leader Justin Trudeau. Had the Liberals been in the political wilderness, and had the NDP not gone through its recent internal divisions, this riding would have been a prime pick-up opportunity for New Democrats, as the party did well in the St. John's area in the last election. However, the NDP has been discredited, and despite the strong candidacy of O'Leary, they are unlikely to do well today. The Tories on the other hand might still have a chance to win the seat, as they are running a more high profile candidate than the Liberals, in a riding that was once a Tory stronghold. However, I do not believe that will be enough for the Tories to win. So, I am personally predicting a Liberal victory.

We will find out for sure what happens when the polls close tonight at 8pm (6:30 Eastern).

Newfoundland and Labrador municipal elections

Newfoundlanders and Labradorians head to the polls tomorrow to elect the municipal governments across the province’s 277 towns and three cities (St. John’s, Mount Pearl and Corner Brook). Up for election are just the municipal councils- electing mayors, councillors and in some cases deputy mayors.

Elections will not be held in numerous communities due to the entire council being acclaimed, as well elections are being deferred in the communities of Duntara, Keels, King’s Cove, Lamaline, Lark Harbour, Little Bay Islands, Lord’s Cove, Lourdes, Nipper’s Harbour, St. Paul’s, Summerford and York Harbour (and possibly others as well).  Some communities such as Anchor Point, Englee and Conche have fewer candidates than positions available.

Among the province’s largest communities (over 5000 people), the towns of Clarenville, Gander, Grand Falls-Windsor, Labrador City, Marystwon and the City of Mount Pearl are all seeing their mayor’s re-elected by acclamation.

Most communities in the province elect their councils on an at-large basis, with no municipal ward system. In fact, only two municipalities have municipal wards: St. John’s and Conception Bay South. St. John’s has five municipal wards, and Conception Bay South has four.  In both cases, these wards elect one member of council, but both cities also have at large councillors elected across the city, who do not stand in one particular ward.

Map of Newfoundland's municipalities

Map of Labrador's municipalities                  

As St. John’s is by far the largest city in the province, and the province’s capital, most of my focus on tomorrow’s election will be there. St. John’s has an 11 member city council consisting of the mayor, deputy mayor, five councillors elected from each of the five city wards, as well as four councillors elected on an at large basis. There will be no election for Ward 1 councillor, as incumbent councillor Danny Breen has been acclaimed. Both the mayor and deputy mayor positions are elected separately on an at large basis.

The race for mayor will be the most closely watched race in the province, as it pits two partisan camps against each other. There are no municipal parties in the city, but the partisan leanings of both major candidates are quite obvious. The incumbent mayor, Dennis O’Keefe is a member of the provincial Progressive Conservative Party, and his main opponent, Sheilagh O’Leary was endorsed by federal NDP leader Thomas Mulcair. (Being endorsed by a federal party leader is unheard of in municipal politics). There is a third candidate as well, Geoff Chaulk, who is a mental health advocate- but is not expected to contend.

                                                                 
O’Keefe has been mayor of St. John’s since 2008, and previously was the city’s deputy mayor (2005-2008) and at-large councillor (1997-2005). Before entering politics, O’Keefe was a teacher. He was first elected as mayor in a 2008 by-election, where he defeated Marie White, a former deputy mayor. O’Keefe was re-elected in 2009, when he defeated Deputy Mayor Ron Ellsworth, 57%-37%. Ellsworth is re-entering politics in this election, as he is running for the open seat of deputy mayor.

O’Keefe’s main opposition comes from Councillor Sheilagh O’Leary. A businesswoman and photographer by training, O’Leary was elected as an at-large councillor for the first time in 2009. Not only did she win a seat on council, she topped the list for the position, winning 6500 more votes then the next candidate. She even won more votes than O’Keefe did-although this would be comparing apples to oranges as voters get four votes for at large council.

An Abacus Data-VOCM poll was conducted earlier this month that showed O’Keefe leads O’Leary 60%-39%, with Chaulk at 1%. However, 30% of those polled were undecided. In the Deputy Mayor race, Ron Ellsworth leads his opponent, transgender activist Jennifer McCreath by 59%.

The 2009 election was less polarizing, as the two main candidates were conservative oriented. Deputy Mayor Ron Ellsworth, who was O’Keefe’s main opposition often clashed with O’Keefe on council on spending matters, perhaps putting him to O’Keefe’s right. A third candidate, Mark Wilson- the leader of a popular local reggae band also ran in the race. While a fringe candidate, Wilson was the only left of centre candidate in the race, and won 6% of the vote.

St. John's neighbourhoods and wards

Special thanks to the City of St. John’s elections office who sent me the ward-by-ward results of the 2009 mayoral race (data not found on the web). The results show that O’Keefe won all 5 wards, but the race in Ward 4 was fairly close, and the only ward where O’Keefe did not win a majority.

2009 results by ward

Ward	O'Keefe	Ellsworth	Wilson
1 (East End)	52.0%	43.4%	4.6%
2 (Central)	56.2%	31.8%	12.0%
3 (West End)	65.0%	31.0%	4.0%
4 (North)	49.1%	45.2%	5.7%
5 (South)	65.9%	30.8%	3.3%

O'Keefe support by ward (2009)

Ellsworth support by ward (2009)

Wilson support by ward (2009)

O’Keefe’s support was strongest in the more suburban west end of the city (ward 3), and the suburban/rural
/remote Ward 5, which covers the sparsely populated expansive southern 3/4ths of the city. Ward 4 was O’Keefe’s weakest ward. This ward covers the semi-suburban northern part of the city, which also includes Memorial University. This ward was also Ellsworth’s strongest ward. Wilson’s strongest ward by war was Ward 2, which covers the city’s downtown core. This must be where the city’s reggae fans are concentrated.

With O’Keefe having a large lead over O’Leary, he will in all likelihood win all 5 wards of the city. However, if O’Leary is to win any ward, it will likely be Ward 2, which takes in the more progressive downtown. Ward 2 encompasses a large portion of the provincial riding of Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi, which the NDP has held for 23 years.  The more suburban wards cover more Tory friendly areas, which should be strong areas for O’Keefe.

We’ll find out the results tomorrow evening when polls close on 8pm (6:30 Eastern).