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| Current projection map. |
There is now one week before the Alberta provincial election, being held next Monday. In the last week, we have yet to see much change in the polls. The right wing Wild Rose Party is still on top, regularly polling in the low 40s. The governing Progressive Conservatives are still typically polling around 30%.
Last week, we saw the televised leaders debates. All four party leaders had their strengths and weaknesses, and there was no clear winner. There has only been one poll released that was conducted post-debate. That poll, conducted by Return on Insight for the CBC showed the race between the two main parties getting closer, with the Tories gaining steam at 36%, while the WRP remains at about 43%. However, the poll seems somewhat dubious. While those numbers seem plausible, the regional numbers smell fishy. They show the Tories just four points between the WRP in Calgary, and the Tories behind the WRP in Edmonton by a greater margin of six percent! Unless another poll shows similar numbers, I am not going to put much faith into this poll, by an organization I've never heard of and which hasn't done a poll yet this campaign.
Most of my numbers were based on polls released by Abacus, Forum Research and Think HQ Public Affairs, last week. I also took into consideration comments left here on my blog, as well as other sources I've come across. I was also sent an email by the guy who runs the ChangeAlberta site, advocating that progressives vote strategically this election. I found the site to be a great resource in terms of determining how certain candidates are doing. I'd still like more comments, of course. The more people disagree with certain predictions, the more likely I will make major changes to those races. I'd also like to get views from across the spectrum, since taking into consideration many different view points will insure the least biased predictions.
Here are my current numbers:
| Riding | PC | WRP | Lib | NDP | Oth | Winning candidate |
| Airdrie | 30 | 54 | 6 | 8 | 2 | Rob Anderson |
| Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater | 39 | 47 | 4 | 10 | - | Travis Olson |
| Banff-Cochrane | 12 | 47 | 26 | 17 | - | Tom Copithorne |
| Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock | 37 | 49 | 5 | 6 | 2 | Link Byfield |
| Battle River-Wainwright | 45 | 49 | 4 | 3 | 1 | Dave Nelson |
| Bonnyville-Cold Lake | 41 | 51 | 4 | 6 | - | Roy Doonanco |
| Calgary-Acadia | 37 | 47 | 7 | 7 | 2 | Richard Jones |
| Calgary-Bow | 32 | 51 | 8 | 7 | 2 | Tim Dyck |
| Calgary-Buffalo | 22 | 41 | 27 | 8 | 2 | Mike Blanchard |
| Calgary-Cross | 36 | 45 | 6 | 11 | 2 | Hardyal Mann |
| Calgary-Currie | 24 | 44 | 16 | 8 | 8 | Corrie Adolph |
| Calgary-East | 32 | 48 | 9 | 9 | 1 | Jesse Minhas |
| Calgary-Elbow | 37 | 42 | 11 | 7 | 3 | James Cole |
| Calgary-Fish Creek | 36 | 50 | 7 | 7 | - | Heather Forsyth |
| Calgary-Foothills | 32 | 48 | 14 | 6 | - | Dustin Nau |
| Calgary-Fort | 34 | 48 | 11 | 9 | 2 | Jeevan Mangat |
| Calgary-Glenmore | 24 | 58 | 11 | 7 | - | Paul Hinman |
| Calgary-Greenway | 30 | 54 | 7 | 9 | - | Ron Leech |
| Calgary-Hawkwood | 25 | 52 | 9 | 8 | 6 | David Yager |
| Calgary-Hays | 35 | 51 | 7 | 7 | - | Wayne Anderson |
| Calgary-Klein | 24 | 49 | 9 | 16 | 2 | Jeremy Nixon |
| Calgary-Lougheed | 36 | 50 | 7 | 7 | - | John Carpay |
| Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill | 32 | 51 | 8 | 7 | 2 | Roy Alexander |
| Calgary-McCall | 26 | 46 | 18 | 7 | 3 | Grant Galpin |
| Calgary-Mountain View | 14 | 41 | 34 | 9 | 2 | Shane McAllister |
| Calgary-North West | 27 | 54 | 8 | 7 | 4 | Chris Challis |
| Calgary-Northern Hills | 33 | 51 | 8 | 8 | - | Prasad Panda |
| Calgary-Shaw | 33 | 51 | 7 | 7 | 2 | Jeff Wilson |
| Calgary-South East | 37 | 51 | 6 | 6 | - | Bill Jarvis |
| Calgary-Varsity | 20 | 46 | 22 | 8 | 4 | Rob Solinger |
| Calgary-West | 29 | 53 | 8 | 6 | 4 | Andrew Constantinidis |
| Cardston-Taber-Warner | 12 | 77 | 3 | 8 | - | Gary Bikman |
| Chestermere-Rocky View | 34 | 50 | 11 | 5 | - | Bruce McAllister |
| Cypress-Medicine Hat | 23 | 52 | 15 | 10 | - | Drew Barnes |
| Drayton Valley-Devon | 33 | 54 | 5 | 8 | - | Dean Shular |
| Drumheller-Stettler | 29 | 56 | 5 | 9 | 2 | Rick Strankman |
| Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley | 22 | 63 | 1 | 14 | - | Kelly Hudson |
| Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | 27 | 29 | 6 | 37 | 1 | Deron Bilous |
| Edmonton-Calder | 28 | 31 | 7 | 31 | 3 | Rich Neumann or David Eggen |
| Edmonton-Castle Downs | 39 | 32 | 17 | 10 | 2 | Thomas Lukaszuk |
| Edmonton Centre | 18 | 31 | 32 | 19 | - | Laurie Blakeman |
| Edmonton-Decore | 33 | 33 | 16 | 18 | - | Janice Sarich or Chris Bataluk |
| Edmonton-Ellerslie | 31 | 34 | 14 | 18 | 3 | Jackie Lovely |
| Edmonton-Glenora | 28 | 30 | 17 | 19 | 6 | Don Koziak |
| Edmonton-Gold Bar | 29 | 32 | 16 | 20 | 3 | Linda Carlson |
| Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | 18 | 28 | 5 | 46 | 3 | Brian Mason |
| Edmonton-Manning | 36 | 31 | 11 | 19 | 3 | Peter Sandhu |
| Edmonton-McClung | 36 | 31 | 24 | 6 | 3 | David Xiao |
| Edmonton-Meadowlark | 20 | 31 | 36 | 11 | 2 | Raj Sherman |
| Edmonton-Mill Creek | 43 | 34 | 11 | 10 | 2 | Gene Zwozdesky |
| Edmonton-Mill Woods | 31 | 32 | 16 | 14 | 7 | Joanne Autio |
| Edmonton-Riverview | 25 | 32 | 32 | 9 | 2 | John Corie or Arif Khan |
| Edmonton-Rutherford | 32 | 32 | 22 | 9 | 5 | Fred Horne or Kyle McLeod |
| Edmonton-South West | 43 | 38 | 12 | 5 | 2 | Matt Jeneroux |
| Edmonton-Strathcona | 16 | 27 | 10 | 45 | 2 | Rachel Notley |
| Edmonton-Whitemud | 46 | 29 | 17 | 5 | 2 | David Hancock |
| Fort McMurray-Conklin | 32 | 45 | 14 | 8 | - | Doug Faulkner |
| Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo | 29 | 48 | 15 | 8 | - | Guy Boutilier |
| Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | 37 | 50 | 3 | 8 | 2 | Shannon Stubbs |
| Grande Prairie-Smoky | 31 | 55 | 4 | 9 | 1 | Todd Loewen |
| Grande Prairie-Wapiti | 39 | 45 | 5 | 10 | 1 | Ethane Jarvis |
| Highwood | 18 | 68 | 5 | 9 | - | Danielle Smith |
| Innisfail-Sylvan Lake | 26 | 53 | 6 | 13 | 2 | Kerry Towle |
| Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills | 35 | 49 | 6 | 10 | - | Shayne Saskiw |
| Lacombe-Ponoka | 36 | 51 | 4 | 7 | 2 | Rod Fox |
| Leduc-Beaumont | 31 | 32 | 8 | 7 | 3 | David Stasiewich |
| Lesser Slave Lake | 34 | 49 | 9 | 7 | 1 | Darryl Boisson |
| Lethbridge-East | 18 | 48 | 22 | 12 | - | Kent Prestage |
| Lethbridge-West | 20 | 41 | 18 | 19 | 2 | Kevin Kinahan |
| Little Bow | 18 | 68 | 4 | 10 | - | Ian Donovan |
| Livingstone-Macleod | 24 | 55 | 9 | 11 | 1 | Pat Stier |
| Medicine Hat | 10 | 52 | 26 | 11 | 1 | Blake Pedersen |
| Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills | 22 | 68 | 2 | 8 | - | Bruce Rowe |
| Peace River | 32 | 49 | 5 | 14 | - | Alan Forsyth |
| Red Deer-North | 20 | 51 | 14 | 13 | 2 | Randy Weins |
| Red Deer-South | 18 | 50 | 19 | 11 | 2 | Nathan Stephan |
| Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre | 26 | 57 | 7 | 10 | - | Joe Anglin |
| Sherwood Park | 35 | 40 | 9 | 7 | 9 | Garnett Genius |
| Spruce Grove-St. Albert | 50 | 35 | 9 | 6 | - | Doug Horner |
| St. Albert | 27 | 46 | 12 | 7 | 8 | James Burrows |
| Stony Plain | 32 | 51 | 6 | 7 | 4 | Hal Tagg |
| Strathcona-Sherwood Park | 55 | 32 | 7 | 6 | - | Dave Quest |
| Strathmore-Brooks | 35 | 52 | 3 | 9 | 1 | Alex Wychopen |
| Vermilion-Lloydminster | 31 | 60 | 3 | 5 | 1 | Danny Hozack |
| West Yellowhead | 21 | 43 | 11 | 10 | 15 | Stuart Taylor |
| Wetaskiwin-Camrose | 38 | 50 | 5 | 8 | 1 | Trevor Miller |
| Whitecourt-Ste. Anne | 29 | 61 | 4 | 6 | - | Maryann Chichak |
Changes since my last prediction:
My only changes appear to be in the Edmonton area, since that is where most of the close races seem to be.
Edmonton-Calder: I found some redistributed numbers from the last election, and they show that Edmonton-Calder will be getting less NDP-friendly. This has reduced my NDP numbers in this seat to a tie with the Wildrose Party.
Edmonton Centre: It appears the Liberals are running a strong campaign here, so I've switched this from WRP to Liberal.
Edmonton-Decore and Edmonton-Rutherford: The Tory strength in Edmonton has weakened slightly, meaning these two riding is no longer PC, but are WRP-PC ties in my projection.
Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Glenora, Edmonton-Gold Bar, Edmonton-Mill Woods: The slight dip in Tory support in Edmonton has meant that these riding is being have switched from PC to WRP.
Spruce Grove-St. Albert: I have heard from numerous sources that if one PC incumbent wins, it will be Doug Horner. The man is on the right of the party, so why elect the WRP here?
Strathcona-Sherwood Park: This riding is similar to Spruce Grove-St. Albert, in that is located in the Edmonton suburbs. I'm not sure how popular incumbent PC MP Dave Quest is, but he did get a higher percentage of the vote than Horner in the last election.
With the PCs riding low in the polls I keep wondering what will happen between PC and Liberal voters. Will progressive Albertans (perhaps including the NDP) flip to the PCs to stop the Wild Rose in Edmonton? With mounting evidence of PC losses will they flee to more consistent parties on the left like the NDP? When parties collapse their voters do strange things.
ReplyDeleteI am a progressive voting (Edmonton South-West) for the conservative to stop the Wildrose candidate here.
DeleteI was wondering if there has been any movement in my riding based on the homophobic blog exposé? I find the closeness in numbers in the riding very disconcerting given the degree of religious fanaticism the Wildrose candidate exhibits - surely people know about that and are not for it.
Hmmm, I read that blog several times. The guy give his personal opinion. I never read where it said "I hate the Gays", although he does make it clear that he does not accept the lifestyle. I guess because I do not sport a pedophilia lifestyle I am a pedophobic religious fanatic? I don't support an illegal narcotic lifestyle, so am I a narcophobia fanatic......or does it sound better if we add narcophobic religious fanatic? Since when do we have to blinded accept everyone's opinion or lifestyle? What no one can have an opinion. Don't forget that blog post was NOT on the WRA party blog, it was his own personal blog.
DeleteI guess it is better to vote in a dictator PC government whom sold us out to Big Oil, targeting the law abiding people who would like to have a glass of wine when they go out for a meal and are spending us back to debt when oil is at $100 a barrel. Do we want to see all of the cuts back to healthcare and education to get us out of debt? Vote PC!!! No debate, No input, PC way or the highway! Sounds like a GREAT party!! No group religious or gay is getting persecuted here....don't punish my kids education or healthcare for a lifestyle choice....think about it.
There is no such thing as a lifestyle choice when discussing homosexuality. It is ignorant to compare criminal activity to homosexuality. Masking your hate of someone by saying you want to 'love' them into correcting their 'behaviour' because of your religious beliefs is not fooling anyone. He is a hater. And he is a person who would have put his beliefs ahead of the safety of children. That is inexcusable.
DeleteHe would have been an elected official in committees making decisions on policy based on his opinions which are antiquated and which do not reflect the average person's feelings on the matter.
Hey Earl,
ReplyDeleteI am campaigning in Glenora and Wildrose isn't going to win. They are running a weak campaign here. They have put out one generic central leaflet and put up some signs but that's it. This race is NDP vs PC.
Also Edmonton-Calder the Wildrose is weak as well. This is another PC vs NDP race. Considering how much is going into it and we just lost it by a small margin.
Hey Yardy. Good to hear from you. I'm getting a good feeling of how the NDP and Liberal campaigns are going, but I don't know where all the WRP hot spots are, so I thank you for that information. I will include it in my final prediction next week.
ReplyDeleteThese poll results scare me. Hopefully they aren't going to prove to me true in the end....
ReplyDeleteVote Lori-Sigurdson for Edmonton-Riverview, NDP! And it's true about Glenora, I've heard from most people the Wild Rose don't stand a chance there. And even in Edmonton-South West the WR candidate is a total joke. So I am curious about these results.
Whatever you do, do not reward the incompetence of the PC's. Vote them all out. If you are right, vote Wild Rose. If you are left, take the NDP or Liberals. The PC's do not deserve your vote. At least the opposition parties don't have the sense of entitlement and arrogance that the PC's have developed over 41 years.
ReplyDeleteHi there Earl. After the problems with the Edm.S-W candidate from WRP, I would think he will lose at least 5-7% of the vote if not more. I also think that in Devon, WRP candidate is not as strong as is projected. McQueen is a former cabinet minister and a bully. She has actually threatened the council and a lot of people. It may be closer than you figure.
ReplyDeleteHuh?? Latest polls show the liberal voters in Calgary, are jumping to the PCs, and the PC's are ahead in Calgary. Also, there are ridings in Calgary where the Wildrose is extremely weak, and the PC candidate completely all-encompassing on the ground.
ReplyDeleteoh ya, link to latest poll:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/15/albertavotes2012-roi-poll-tight-election-race.html
Hi, I mentioned the CBC poll in my post, and why I didn't factor it in my prediction. The poll seems to be an outlier unless other polls confirm those numbers.
ReplyDeleteThere is a new Forum poll out showing WR ahead by 7% over the PCs, and with WR having a comfortable majority over PCs in Calgary, and vice versa for Edmonton. WR way ahead outside those two cities.
ReplyDeleteI was also robo called this evening for another poll, so no doubt another one will be coming out in the next day or so.
There will be many polls to come, for sure. I saw that FR poll, and just as I predicted: it contradicts that CBC poll. What we do see is the race is tightening a bit, however I doubt the PCs will catch up.
ReplyDeleteHi earl. I work for the Edmonton rutherford candidate.
ReplyDeleteI've been door knocking with kyle for 2 months now and I'll tell you for sure that if the PC won it would be a complete shock to everyone. Doing a poll with kyle I would have 5+ wildrose supporters for every non-supporter and maybe 1 out of 20 actually confirmed PC voters. I will admit there are alot of undecided in the area so we'll see how that goes. 90% of the undecided are old PC voters that are looking for a change.
We've also found that Fred Horne and Rick Miller are using old data from years ago to do their sign drops. We've had countless people say they never requested a PC sign on their yard but its still sitting there. They are trying to confuse the riding by falsely advertising massive support for the PC. A lot of neighbors don't want a WR sign because of all the PC signs in the area and they are shocked to learn the truth.
Threehundredeight.com is polling us over 9% behind but I have no idea where they get their data cause its not what were seeing at the doors.
Note: For anyone in the Edmonton area, the A&B sound building covered in Wildrose signs is Kyles office, feel free to stop by. :)
Hi Earl,
ReplyDeleteEnjoy the blog. I was wondering if you had any thoughts concerning all the controversial things said by a couple of Wildrose candidates in the last couple of days and if you think that this will swing the votes back to the PC's.
Personally, I don't think it will, But I may be blinded by my own bias.
Thanks,
Rocky
@ Anonymous: Thanks for your information. I think your comments are the first indication of a winning WRP campaign in Edmonton, as most people are telling me that they're losing in other ridings. 308.com uses a uniform provincial swing, so they're going to miss the local nuances. I'm counting on that to get a more accurate prediction!
ReplyDelete@ Rocky: Remember, this is Alberta. People there tend to be social conservatives, so it's only going to hurt the WRP in a few urban areas. I don't think it will affect the outcome of the election as it stands now (WRP majority). But, only polling can tell for sure.
I am in Edmonton south and I sure am swiching my vote back to the PC's after all these ridiculous far right wing social statements by the WR. At least they have revealed themselves before the vote! I am voting PC to give Alison Redford a chance to show the real change. I am starting to see that the "old boys club" is really the wildrose. Many of my friends are disillusioned as well and swinging back to the PC. Why isn't anyone polling us? This could be a real suprise.
ReplyDeleteI am definitely one of the left agonizing over whether to vote PC to try to avoid a WR government. I'm in Calgary Hawkwood and normally vote NDP provincially and nationally. If my riding is going to be close I would likely (unhappily) vote PC but if WR is going to sweep it anyway I would rather have my vote count towards the NDP popular vote!
ReplyDeleteEarl - I think relentless pressure on the "controversial" WR candidate statements from Edmonton will push strategic left-wing votes to save some PC seats. I think numbers will come out more like 55 WR, 21 PC, 7 LIB and the rest between ND and AP. WR had a shot at 70's territory until this week.
ReplyDeletePolls are starting to show the PCs coming back in Calgary, but that's yet to be the case in Edmonton. But, I wouldn't be surprised if it does. But, yeah, I agree the WRP probably wont be winning 70 seats at this point. And the Alberta Party wont win any seats I think. If they were included in the debate, they might've had a shot at West Yellowhead.
ReplyDeletePredictions of Wildrose majority starting to hit the mainstream press - see this from Calgary Herald. Seems we are heading that way, but with some caveats.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Alberta%20election%20pollster%20Janet%20Brown%20predicts%20Danielle%20Smith%20Wildrose%20majority%20of%2050%20to%2060%20seats%20over%20Alison%20Redford%20Progressive%20Conservatives/6483224/story.html
Earl, I am starting to think the PCs are going to have a very tough time getting much over 33%. In the last 24 hours or so the news cycle has started to turn against them going into the last weekend of the campaign. The Gary Mar story has resurfaced, a PC candidate made some inappropriate remarks, Preston Manning has all but endorsed WR, and an expert pollster had predicted a WR majority (all of this has been in the Herald). I wouldn't bet my life on on a WR majority, but the PCs are facing some pretty strong headwinds.
ReplyDeleteI wish intrade did Canadian politics. It would be interesting to see what the WRP odds of winning are. Probably around 90%.
ReplyDeleteI live in Edmonton-Calder and its NDP orange signs all over. This riding will be won by the NDP. I take my dog on a 4km walk around my neighbourhood every day, and I have only seen 1 Wild Rose sign, and dozens of NDP, with the odd PC sign.
ReplyDeleteNew CTV poll has wildrose at 41%, pc at 33%, ndp and libs at 11% each. Race seems to have settled down over last week.
ReplyDeleteYes, I realize I'm wrong about Edmonton-Calder. Anyways, that CTV poll confirms the race is tightening up in Calgary. I look forward to crunching the numbers there to see what comes up. Looks like Redford will be keeping her seat, I'd say.
ReplyDeleteHi Earl,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the blog - really interesting read.
I am a progressive voting (Edmonton South-West) for the conservative to stop the Wildrose candidate here.
I was wondering if there has been any movement in my riding based on the homophobic blog exposé? I find the closeness in numbers in the riding very disconcerting given the degree of religious fanaticism the Wildrose candidate exhibits - surely people know about that and are not for it.
Called the PC riding office to see if they have any polling info - will let you know if they call back and what they say.
That would be great. It appears from what people have been telling me that the PCs are ahead in Edm SW, due to those comments and not a very well run campaign by the WRP there. So, expect my next projection to have the Tories with a safe lead there. One of my assumptions for the strong numbers I have for the WRP there is the fact that it is an open seat- and very suburban. But the redistributed numbers show the Tories did very well there last time, but on the backs of strong candidates in neighbouring ridings that it was carved out of.
ReplyDeleteHi Earl,
ReplyDeleteI need to get my political "crack" fix.
I was wondering when you are going to be putting up a new projection.
Thanks,
Rocky
I'll be doing my final projection on Sunday, so you're going to have to wait ;-)
ReplyDeleteThanks, I guess I will have to do that. Enjoy the blog. Keep up the good work.
ReplyDeleteI'm very interested to see how things will play out here in Fort McMurray. A very well-known and respected municipal councillor running for the PC's in Fort McMurray-Conklin against a former mayor for the WRP and the deputy mayor and long-time businessman running for the PC's in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo against Boutillier. Boutillier isn't running in my riding but he comes across as rather arrogant to me. Like the PC Party he's well past his expiry date and needs to go. I would love to see Boutillier get creamed in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo and the WRP take the other riding so that at least the city has a voice at the table as it appears the PC's are about to get schooled on Monday.
ReplyDeleteEzra Levant is predicting 50 to 60 seats for Wildrose, based in part on the idea that WR voters are much more enthusiastic than PC voters. This is supported by the latest Abacus poll data. I personally think the over/under for WR is about 48. Tough to see how the PCs can win at this stage.
ReplyDeleteNew Forum poll out showing WR has 9 point lead and will win 60 plus seats.
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