 |
| Projected map. |
Most of the polls released over the last week show the Wildrose Party in the low 40s, the Tories around 30%, and the NDP and Liberals tied in the low teens. This is about where the parties stood for my last projection.
While the Wildrose Party had the momentum during the first week of the campaign, they seem to have hit a plateau, and the election appears to be on cruise control. The WRP has increased their support in rural Alberta, but it appears to have come to the expense of the party in Edmonton, the only part of the province where they are behind the Tories.
Here are my riding by riding projections:
| Riding | PC | WRP | Lib | NDP | Oth | Winning candidate |
| Airdrie | 24 | 65 | 4 | 7 | - | Rob Anderson |
| Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater | 39 | 46 | 5 | 10 | - | Travis Olson |
| Banff-Cochrane | 16 | 47 | 26 | 13 | - | Tom Copithorne |
| Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock | 37 | 47 | 7 | 6 | 2 | Link Byfield |
| Battle River-Wainwright | 45 | 47 | 6 | 3 | 1 | Dave Nelson |
| Bonnyville-Cold Lake | 42 | 50 | 4 | 6 | - | Roy Doonanco |
| Calgary-Acadia | 30 | 55 | 6 | 9 | - | Richard Jones |
| Calgary-Bow | 28 | 49 | 15 | 7 | 1 | Tim Dyck |
| Calgary-Buffalo | 17 | 43 | 31 | 8 | 1 | Mike Blanchard |
| Calgary-Cross | 37 | 45 | 5 | 11 | 2 | Hardyal Mann |
| Calgary-Currie | 18 | 42 | 25 | 8 | 7 | Corrie Adolph |
| Calgary-East | 39 | 45 | 9 | 9 | - | Jesse Minhas |
| Calgary-Elbow | 28 | 44 | 18 | 6 | 4 | James Cole |
| Calgary-Fish Creek | 29 | 54 | 10 | 7 | - | Heather Forsyth |
| Calgary-Foothills | 30 | 46 | 16 | 6 | - | Dustin Nau |
| Calgary-Fort | 31 | 44 | 4 | 18 | 1 | Jeevan Mangat |
| Calgary-Glenmore | 13 | 58 | 21 | 8 | - | Paul Hinman |
| Calgary-Greenway | 27 | 53 | 10 | 10 | - | Ron Leech |
| Calgary-Hawkwood | 21 | 52 | 17 | 8 | 2 | David Yager |
| Calgary-Hays | 31 | 54 | 8 | 7 | - | Wayne Anderson |
| Calgary-Klein | 27 | 49 | 10 | 12 | 2 | Jeremy Nixon |
| Calgary-Lougheed | 35 | 50 | 9 | 6 | - | John Carpay |
| Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill | 30 | 48 | 14 | 7 | 1 | Roy Alexander |
| Calgary-McCall | 21 | 43 | 29 | 7 | - | Grant Galpin |
| Calgary-Mountain View | 8 | 44 | 38 | 9 | 1 | Shane McAllister |
| Calgary-North West | 23 | 58 | 10 | 7 | 2 | Chris Challis |
| Calgary-Northern Hills | 31 | 51 | 11 | 7 | - | Prasad Panda |
| Calgary-Shaw | 34 | 52 | 6 | 7 | 1 | Jeff Wilson |
| Calgary-South East | 33 | 54 | 6 | 7 | - | Bill Jarvis |
| Calgary-Varsity | 18 | 47 | 26 | 7 | 2 | Rob Solinger |
| Calgary-West | 25 | 56 | 11 | 7 | 1 | Andrew Constantinidis |
| Cardston-Taber-Warner | 8 | 87 | 2 | 3 | - | Gary Bikman |
| Chestermere-Rocky View | 27 | 61 | 8 | 4 | - | Bruce McAllister |
| Cypress-Medicine Hat | 27 | 52 | 15 | 6 | - | Drew Barnes |
| Drayton Valley-Devon | 32 | 51 | 9 | 8 | - | Dean Shular |
| Drumheller-Stettler | 33 | 56 | 6 | 5 | - | Rick Strankman |
| Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley | 21 | 63 | 2 | 14 | - | Kelly Hudson |
| Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview | 30 | 29 | 3 | 36 | 2 | Deron Bilous |
| Edmonton-Calder | 27 | 33 | 2 | 39 | - | David Eggen |
| Edmonton-Castle Downs | 42 | 28 | 17 | 10 | 3 | Thomas Lukaszuk |
| Edmonton Centre | 22 | 29 | 28 | 20 | - | Barb de Groot |
| Edmonton-Decore | 37 | 32 | 18 | 13 | - | Janice Sarich |
| Edmonton-Ellerslie | 35 | 31 | 13 | 18 | 3 | Naresh Bhardwaj |
| Edmonton-Glenora | 31 | 28 | 19 | 15 | 7 | Heather Klimchuk |
| Edmonton-Gold Bar | 29 | 28 | 23 | 16 | 4 | David Dorward |
| Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | 20 | 22 | 3 | 51 | 4 | Brian Mason |
| Edmonton-Manning | 37 | 29 | 10 | 20 | 4 | Peter Sandhu |
| Edmonton-McClung | 34 | 26 | 29 | 8 | 3 | David Xiao |
| Edmonton-Meadowlark | 24 | 29 | 35 | 9 | 3 | Raj Sherman |
| Edmonton-Mill Creek | 43 | 31 | 12 | 14 | - | Gene Zwozdesky |
| Edmonton-Mill Woods | 33 | 30 | 17 | 14 | 6 | Sohail Quadri |
| Edmonton-Riverview | 28 | 29 | 31 | 9 | 3 | Arif Khan |
| Edmonton-Rutherford | 35 | 29 | 22 | 10 | 4 | Fred Horne |
| Edmonton-South West | 41 | 34 | 19 | 6 | - | Matt Jeneroux |
| Edmonton-Strathcona | 17 | 28 | 4 | 51 | - | Rachel Notley |
| Edmonton-Whitemud | 49 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 3 | David Hancock |
| Fort McMurray-Conklin | 31 | 42 | 18 | 8 | - | Doug Faulkner |
| Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo | 28 | 45 | 19 | 8 | - | Guy Boutilier |
| Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | 39 | 48 | 4 | 8 | 1 | Shannon Stubbs |
| Grande Prairie-Smoky | 34 | 52 | 5 | 9 | - | Todd Loewen |
| Grande Prairie-Wapiti | 38 | 43 | 9 | 10 | - | Ethane Jarvis |
| Highwood | 22 | 68 | 5 | 5 | - | Danielle Smith |
| Innisfail-Sylvan Lake | 30 | 54 | 6 | 9 | 1 | Kerry Towle |
| Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills | 34 | 46 | 10 | 10 | - | Shayne Saskiw |
| Lacombe-Ponoka | 37 | 48 | 8 | 7 | - | Rod Fox |
| Leduc-Beaumont | 35 | 47 | 9 | 7 | 2 | David Stasiewich |
| Lesser Slave Lake | 33 | 47 | 13 | 7 | - | Darryl Boisson |
| Lethbridge-East | 13 | 48 | 31 | 8 | - | Kent Prestage |
| Lethbridge-West | 12 | 49 | 27 | 12 | - | Kevin Kinahan |
| Little Bow | 22 | 68 | 4 | 6 | - | Ian Donovan |
| Livingstone-Macleod | 28 | 55 | 9 | 7 | 1 | Pat Stier |
| Medicine Hat | 14 | 52 | 26 | 7 | 1 | Blake Pedersen |
| Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills | 26 | 68 | 2 | 4 | - | Bruce Rowe |
| Peace River | 31 | 48 | 7 | 14 | - | Alan Forsyth |
| Red Deer-North | 24 | 51 | 14 | 9 | 2 | Randy Weins |
| Red Deer-South | 22 | 50 | 19 | 7 | 2 | Nathan Stephan |
| Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre | 30 | 57 | 7 | 6 | - | Joe Anglin |
| Sherwood Park | 31 | 40 | 18 | 5 | 6 | Garnett Genius |
| Spruce Grove-St. Albert | 31 | 37 | 21 | 5 | - | Travis Hughes |
| St. Albert | 24 | 42 | 28 | 5 | 1 | James Burrows |
| Stony Plain | 32 | 51 | 11 | 6 | - | Hal Tagg |
| Strathcona-Sherwood Park | 38 | 42 | 15 | 5 | - | Paul Nemetchek |
| Strathmore-Brooks | 39 | 53 | 3 | 5 | - | Alex Wychopen |
| Vermilion-Lloydminster | 34 | 57 | 4 | 5 | - | Danny Hozack |
| West Yellowhead | 21 | 40 | 17 | 12 | 10 | Stuart Taylor |
| Wetaskiwin-Camrose | 38 | 49 | 6 | 8 | 1 | Trevor Miller |
| Whitecourt-Ste. Anne | 29 | 60 | 5 | 6 | Maryann Chichak |
Summary
The Wildrose Party increases came from rural Alberta, while the Tories gained from the WRP and the Liberals in Edmonton.
Methodology
For all of you who are not familiar with my projections, I base my predictions on not only poll numbers, but "qualitative" data as well- that is from what I read about local campaigns, and what people tell me. So, if you have any disagreements with any of my predictions, please let me know, and I can adjust my figures next time. The point of my predictions is to be as accurate as possible.
Cripes!!! Why can't Alberta experiment with democracy for a change? A scant majority with a real opposition would make a nice change!
ReplyDeleteAlberta is... different. However, there was a Leger poll released yesterday showing the PCs and WRP at neck and neck. I was conducted over Easter weekend though, so I question its reliability.
ReplyDeleteAs someone working on a Wildrose campaign on the ground. We haven't seen any sign out momentum is shifting back to the PC's. Lawn sign orders are still through the roof and were still getting tremendous response at the doors. A lot of people who are still on the fence this week have currently stated they're waiting for the debate. I believe that long weekend poll is an outlier and nothing more.
ReplyDeleteWell, the poll didn't show much of a change in Calgary, so if you're in Cowtown, then you're probably not seeing much change. The poll showed a large shift in rural Alberta. But as I said, it's probably a junk poll.
ReplyDeleteI am not sure how credible theses riding projections can be when in Calgary-Elbow you allocate 18% to a Liberal party candidate that doesn't exist.
ReplyDeleteApology and correction. There is apparently a Liberal candidate in Calgary-Elbow, just not a visible one.
ReplyDeleteHi, thanks for your input. The reason it's so high is the Liberals have done well there in the past, including only losing by 400 votes there last time. Now, if there's no campaign there, I will have to adjust my figures for next time.
ReplyDeleteThe Campaign Reseach poll shows a little movement to the PC's all at the expense of the Liberals and NDP. The Liberal party could get really squeezed perhaps out of existence. Sherman will have to have a great debate, to stop the right of his party heading to the PC's and the left from going to the NDP. My guess is this is the last election in Alberta where the Liberal party will even be a factor. This is already the case in Manitoba and Saskatchewan where there is little to no provincial liberal party.
ReplyDeleteSherman had a poor debate performance, so maybe this will be the beginning of the end for the Alberta Liberals. Alberta is probably the only province where I would support a Liberal-NDP merger, just because of the politics of the province, and how left wing the Alberta Liberals are now.
ReplyDeleteLooking at the 1967 Alberta election I see a lot of parallels with 2012. I find the popular vote % for '67 interesting because they're very similar to what is being polled now.
ReplyDelete1967 final vote numbers rounded up
Social Credit had 45% with 55 of 65 seats while PC's had 26% for 6 seats. Libs had 11% with 3 seats and NDP had 15% with no seats.
Obviously PC's had upward momentum in 1967, but its the last election they polled so low and substitute Social Credit for Wildrose in that mid 40's range. The Liberal and NDP numbers are also remarkably similar to this election.
It honestly wouldn't surprise me to see a similar result.
Your prediction for Calgary glenmore seems to be way out of sink. The pc candidate will get at least thirty five percent of the vote. Nominal liberal candidate versus large budget conservative campaign. She will do well in Chinook park, lakeview, kelvin grove and eagle Ridge. Hinman will win but this will be more competitive than you think. This is alison Redford home turf where she got over fifteen hundred votes in leadership convention. Also includes area where gary market went to high school school and grew up.
ReplyDeleteCalgary mountainview: the liberals are winning this one, demographics of this riding and well recognized incumbent is causing a movement of progressive voters to Swann. The hospital population in this area favors the incumbent. Look at the last lawn signs in people's yards. Not Wildrose turf.
ReplyDeleteCalgary varsity: this is going to a three horse race as the libs, pc and wildrose all have strong campaigns. Two term liberal seat and organized campaign. Upper middle class neighborhoods, University and hospital nearby will cause this to be an interesting race to the end. The wildrose campaign seems to be faltering here. Not sure why but they seem to be not engaging with voters here or are simply being outworked and out spent.
ReplyDeleteCalgary acadia: I am not partial to the pc candidate but he is an incumbent who won by a large percentage last time. Although, this will be a very close vote the denis campaign seems better organized and financed than the wildrose campaign. This vote will be very close on election day. The pc campaign will get agood turn out with a great get out vote effort. This will go late into thenight on election day.
ReplyDeleteCalgary fort:this is an interesting race as former wildrose candidate is running for liberals, weak conservative incumbent. I agree with the wildrose percentage but the liberals seem to be running at a lot stronger than at four percent. I would suggest that the liberals will get at least twenty percent of the vote here. Your ndp vote is way overstated. They are simply not that strong.
ReplyDeleteThanks for your input, I will factor in your analysis for my next prediction :)
ReplyDeleteI'm not from Alberta, but I follow all provincial elections in Canada closely. I know that most Albertans are more right-wing than the rest of the country, so no surprise that the PCs and the Wildrose are on top. While I vote Liberal federally, I will never vote Liberal in Alberta -- I would go with the PCs in this election if I could vote. I personally think the Wildrose is scary and could cause more problems than solving them with their policies. I think some right-of-centre stuff is good, hence my support for federal Liberals (especially under Martin) and the PCs in Alberta, but I do not support the notion that the Wildrose wants Alberta to be separate from everyone else in the country. Even though we have many differences, we need to come together and use Alberta's strengths and combine them with the strengths with the rest of the provinces to make a united country.
ReplyDeleteBTW, I am also an avid curler, so I tend to look to Alberta for assistance when necessary, lol.
Your response is interesting. A quick comment on alberta politics is that Calgary and Edmonton are not as right wing as you would think. The victory of nenshi as mayor supports this view. What I would call the right wing aka as
ReplyDeletethe original reform party represents only about thirty percent of the electorate but they are very well organized and tend to be political. Fundamental liberals represent about twenty five to thirty percent but are frequently split and are very disorganized. The other forty to forty five percent are centrist but have voted pc or conservative for years. The majority of the population in the middle cannot distinguish right from left. This is the problem with alison Redford she is left wing in view point but running as a pc. The right wing conservatives which were previously pc have left to era leaving her with only moderate. A large number of liberals have moved to her but I think some detailed analysis will show that a substantial portion have moved to Wildrose as well. I would suggest Redford has lost fifty percent of those who voted pc last time but has gained a large portion of the liberal vote in calgary and possibly Edmonton. If you look at an area like calgary glenmore the liberals have gotten 5000-7500 votes and lost repeatedly since 1989. The pc have gotten. 7000-9000. If the Wildrose gets 44 percent of the vote here they could lose. The liberal and ndp are invisible. This scenario probably will play out to some degree in all the Ridings in calgary south of glenmore trail to the city limits.
As a side note, I am also a right of center liberal. I prefer the term fiscally responsible to fiscal conservative. I think that martin had the right message as did lawrence decode provincially in the late 1980's and 1993 provincial election. The reason many fiscally responsible liberals may be moving to the Wildrose is that they have been wanting change for 41 years. There are many people who just want to throw the pc out of office. It is not a right wing thing it is an anger thing at their sense of entitlement. Redford and the pc are chameleon in nature. They have been all things to all people for to long and have no firm ideology. They have only found a center left position since they discovered they were losing.
ReplyDeleteI am also a curler.
The promise of a couple hundred bucks is assuredly not enough to buy - I mean, win my vote. Thankfully I live in Edmonton-Calder, and there are many people in my riding who agree.
ReplyDeleteWhat most commenters here fail to realize is that the desire for freedom is strong in most people and is very strong in Alberta. This and this alone is what is propelling the WRP to power: an intrinsic desire for less government. Less government equals greater liberty. Think about it: more government equals more intrusion equals less liberty. The WRP, unlike the conservatives, have embraced this. All the other parties are puely about larger government which equals less liberty wich equals less freedom.
ReplyDeleteOf course, Alberta is not as right wing as people think! The 3 progressive parties - Liberal, NDP, and Greens won a full 40% of votes in the 2008 election, although that gave them only 13% of the seats.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, I disagree that Raj performed "poorly" on the debate. There were a lot of people who were surprised at how strong he came across, and one Herald editorial crowned him the winner. Only to say that everything is relative, and subjective. Particularly in this province where lies are often seen by voters as facts, and facts taken for lies. People in this province need to learn how to read and how to think critically. RIght now, they're dismal at it.
Raj had a lot of good things to say, but he didn't articulate his points very well. Oh well.
ReplyDeleteIm sorry why did you presume that Albertans take lies for facts and facts for lies?
ReplyDeleteYou sure missed this one! I wish your predictions had been accurate!
ReplyDeleteA little off eh!!!
ReplyDeleteMerci
ReplyDeleteaswqergh
Probably one of the most talked about stores in Paris, Isabel Marant Heels