Saskatchewan 2011 provincial election prediction (Oct 30)

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Saskatchewan will be going to the polls a week from Monday, and we finally have seen some opinion polls come out of the province. On Friday, both Insightrix and Forum Research published poll numbers for the upcoming provincial election.

Both firms show a landslide victory in the making for the governing right wing Saskatchewan Party. Forum Research has them at an overwhelming 66% of the vote, while Insightrix has them at 60%. The opposition NDP is at 30% according to Forum Research or 33% according to Insightrix. These polls show a gain for the Saskatchewan Party since my last prediction in the summer, while they have the NDP stagnant.

The SP has gained much of their support thanks to the total collapse of the Liberal Party. The once dominant Saskatchewan Liberal Party will be running just 9 candidates in this election. All but two will be running in Saskatoon. It is likely the Liberals will finish behind the Green Party in popular vote, as the Greens will be running a full slate of candidates. Both polls had the Greens at 3%, while the Liberals are either at 3% or 1%. In other words, neither party will be much of a factor.

A strong economy is really putting the wind in the sails for Premier Brad Wall's government. He is clearly heading toward an historic landslide victory. How far can he go? Will his party be able to win a majority of urban seats? He is unlikely to win all the seats in the province due to is polarized urban vs. Rural split. The NDP is also strong in the north.

Many people are looking at the election of 1982 to compare this race with. In that election, the Tories won 54% of the vote, while the NDP won 38%. It resulted in the Tories winning 55 seats to the NDP's 9. The Tories are now the Saskatchewan Party, and are polling much higher than what they had in 1982. The NDP is also polling much lower. This could mean very bad news for the New Democrats. They may however be buoyed by more polarized electoral map that is present day Saskatchewan.

Seat by seat predictions:

I have averaged the two new polls to come up with the current predictions.

Riding	SP	NDP	Green	Other	Projected winner
Arm River-Watrous	73	24	3	-	Greg Brkich
Athabasca	44	52	4	-	Buckley Belanger
Batoche	70	28	2	-	Delbert Kirsch
Biggar	68	26	4	2	Randy Weeks
Cannington	86	12	1	1	Dan D'Autremont
Canora-Pelly	75	23	2	-	Ken Krawetz
Carrot River Valley	73	26	1	-	Fred Bradshaw
Cumberland	45	48	7	-	Doyle Vermette
Cut Knife-Turtleford	74	24	2	-	Larry Doke
Cypress Hills	86	11	3	-	Wayne Elhard
Estevan	83	14	3	-	Doreen Eagles
Humboldt	73	23	4	-	Donna Harpauer
Indian Head-Milestone	77	19	4	-	Don McMorris
Kelvington-Wadena	81	16	3	-	June Draude
Kindersley	77	19	4	-	Bill Boyd
Last Mountain-Touchwood	72	24	3	1	Glen Hart
Lloydminster	71	28	1	-	Ted McMillan
Martensville	85	12	3	-	Nancy Heppner
Meadow Lake	56	43	1	-	Jeremy Harrison
Melfort	76	23	1	-	Kevin Phillips
Melville-Saltcoats	70	28	1	-	Bob Bjornerud
Moose Jaw North	58	39	2	1	Warren Michelson
Moose Jaw Wakamow	48	47	3	2	Greg Lawrence
Moosomin	84	15	1	-	Don Toth
Prince Albert Carlton	58	40	2	-	Darryl Hickie
Prince Albert Northcote	49	49	2	-	Victoria Jurgens or Darcy Furber
Regina Coronation Park	47	50	3	-	Jaime Garcia
Regina Dewdney	50	38	3	9	Gene Makowsky
Regina Douglas Park	46	49	5	-	Dwain Lingenfelter
Regina Elphinstone-Centre	35	59	6	-	Warren McCall
Regina Lakeview	48	42	5	-	Bob Hawkins
Regina Northeast	54	43	3	-	Kevin Doherty
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	61	37	2	0	Laura Ross
Regina Rosemont	49	47	4	-	Tony Fiacco
Regina South	60	36	4	-	Bill Hutchinson
Regina Walsh Acres	42	54	4	-	Sandra Morin
Regina Wascana Plains	69	27	3	1	Christine Tell
Rosetown-Elrose	82	14	4	-	Jim Reiter
Rosthern-Shelbrook	66	32	2	-	Scott Moe
Saskatchewan Rivers	66	33	1	-	Nadine Wilson
Saskatoon Centre	44	53	3	-	David Forbes
Saskatoon Eastview	54	43	3	-	Corey Tochor
Saskatoon Fairview	49	48	3	-	Jennifer Campeau
Saskatoon Greystone	51	34	3	14	Rob Norris
Saskatoon Massey Place	48	50	2	-	Cam Broten
Saskatoon Meewasin	56	38	3	3	Roger Parent
Saskatoon Northwest	65	31	3	1	Gordon Wyant
Saskatoon Nutana	45	45	5	5	Zoria Broughton or Cathy Sproule
Saskatoon Riversdale	44	53	3	-	Danielle Chartier
Saskatoon Silver Springs	74	20	3	3	Ken Cheveldayoff
Saskatoon Southeast	70	23	3	4	Don Morgan
Saskatoon Sutherland	56	36	4	4	Paul Merriman
Swift Current	83	15	2	-	Brad Wall
The Battlefords	50	39	2	9	Herb Cox
Thunder Creek	80	17	3	-	Lyle Stewart
Weyburn-Big Muddy	75	22	3	-	Dustin Duncan
Wood River	86	11	3	-	Yogi Huyghebaert
Yorkton	69	30	1	-	Greg Ottenbreit

Riding changes since the last prediction:

While the NDP hasn't gone down in the polls, the increase in numbers for the Saskatchewan Party has hurt the NDP badly, and has put many more seats in the “too close to call range”. Seats I had previously going NDP but are now too close to call include Cumberland, Prince Albert Northcote, Regina Coronation Park, Regina Rosemont, Saskatoon Fairview, Saskatoon Massey Place, and even the NDP leader's own seat of Regina Douglas Park. Meanwhile, I have now called two previous too close to call seats for the Saskatchewan Party. Those are Regina Lakeview and Regina Northeast. 

Conclusion

It looks like the Saskatchewan Party will be winning one of the biggest landslide's in the province's history. Never since Saskatchewan joined Canada in 1905 has a party managed over 60% of the vote. If polls are accurate, the SP will break this record. Therefore, they are in uncharted territory. Never has the main opposition party won less than 5 seats in a provincial election. Right now, the NDP is looking at winning a minimum of just 5 seats. Due to concentrations in Regina, Saskatoon and the north, the NDP is unlikely to break this record of just 5 seats, but who knows what could happen!

Manitoba 2011 election results

Results map by riding

Manitobans went to the polls back on October 4, and returned an historic fourth straight NDP majority government. Never in the history of the province has the NDP been able to do that. Much like the 2007 election, the result saw very little change in terms of seat totals. The only net change was the NDP gaining one seat from the fledgling Liberals.

Polls going into the race showed a close race between the Tories and NDP. The final poll before the election, published by Angus Reid put the NDP at 46%, the Tories at 43% and the Liberals at 8%. This would have resulted in a decrease of 2% for the NDP and an increase of 5% for the Tories from the last election. This poll was extremely accurate, as the NDP did end up getting 46%, and the Tories did one better, getting 44%, while the Liberals got 8%.

Party	Leader	Popular vote	%	Seats
N.D.P.	Greg Selinger	199066	46.2	37
Prog. Cons.	Hugh McFadyen	188258	43.7	19
Liberal	Jon Gerrard	32520	7.5	1
Green	James Beddome	10886	2.5	0
Communist	Darrell Rankin	179	0	0
Independents	-	215	0	0

So, the Tories only lost by 2% in the popular vote. But the seat totals showed a different story. The NDP ended up winning 18 seats more than the Tories, or 37 out of 57. What happened? Well, as I mentioned numerous times in my Manitoba projections, Tory support is heavily concentrated in rural Manitoba. Meanwhile, turnout in strong NDP areas is very low. Those areas tend to be low income areas such as the north of Winnipeg, and northern Manitoba (which is also underpopulated to begin with). But still, with the Tories gaining in the popular vote, why didn't they gain any seats at the expense of the NDP? Well it appears, much of the Tory growth occurred in regions they were already strong in, resulting in no growth. They needed to change votes in battleground Winnipeg, but they were unable to do so.

Where I went wrong

With the Tories gaining, and the NDP falling in the polls (and in reality), it seemed obvious to me that the Tories would gain at least a few seats from the NDP. I did foresee a larger gain for the Tories in rural Manitoba, which happened, but what I didn't foresee was little change in Winnipeg. I thought that the Tories would gain a few of their old historical seats back. All in all, I got 5 seats wrong (91% accuracy), which isn't that bad, I'd say.

Dawson Trail

Dawson Trail was probably my biggest mistake of the night. Perhaps I would have been aided here if I had the transposition of the 2007 election results, because this is a brand new riding. I did however know going in that it was created from some of the more NDP friendly areas of the previous riding it was created from, La Verendrye. Perhaps I failed to realize that at least in this part of rural Manitoba (exurban Winnipeg, really), was not going to swing that heavily to the Tories. In total, I was off by an average of 10% from each party in my prediction (including off by 15% for the NDP).

Kirkfield Park

While I didn't pick the winner in Kirkfield Park, I did pick the outcome, and that was a statistical tie. I had both the NDP and the Tories getting 46% of the vote here, and both got 47%. Due to the seat's traditionally Tory leanings however, I felt most comfortable calling this for them. In the end however, it went NDP- by just 26 votes. In the end, I was only off by an average of 1% for each party.

Southdale

Southdale I thought would behave much like Kirkfield Park. This traditionally Tory seat looked ripe for being taken back by the PC Party. Both seats were won by the NDP in 2007 by 11%, but from looking at the map, it appeared Southdale became a lot more conservative leaning after redistribution. The Tories did close the gap a little bit, but still lost the seat by 7 points when I thought they would win by 4. I was off by an average of 4% for each party here.

St. Norbert

If there was one seat that pundits thought would go Tory, but didn't, it was St. Norbert. The riding had been vacated by its incumbent, Marilyn Bryck, and redistribution made the riding more conservative. Also, the NDP had never held the seat prior to first winning it in 2003. The only advantage the NDP seemed to have was the fact they won this south Winnipeg seat in 2007 by 22%. The race was a close one all night on election night, flipping back and forth. In the end, the NDP won by 30 votes. I was off by 7% on average for each party.

Swan River

Finally is the rural riding of Swan River. I figured the large Tory swings in this part of the province would result in this riding going to the Tories. Prior to the 1980s, this seat had always voted Tory, but since then it has been an NDP strong hold. I figured it was time for the riding to back to its PC roots. I was wrong however, as the NDP won the seat by 15%, only a slightly smaller percentage than the 21% the NDP won by there last time. I was off by an average of 6% for each party. 

Maps

NDP popular vote % by riding

 The first three maps show the popular vote strength of the main three parties that contested in the Manitoba election.

The first map shows how well the NDP did in Manitoba's 57 ridings. As you can see, there's a clear polarity between the north and south in rural Manitoba. The sparsely populated north is dominated by the NDP, but the south is nearly a dead zone except for Dawson Trail and Bandon. In Winnipeg, where most of the seats are, the NDP did will in most seats, but especially in the working class north side of the city.

PC popular vote % by riding

The second map shows the Tory vote percentage by seat. In many ways it is just the inverse of the NDP map. Tory strength is concentrated in the rural south of the province, with their best ridings in the heavily German Mennonite communities of the Pembina Valley, where they broke 80% in two seats. In Winnipeg, the Tories only won a handful of suburban seats. The north side of the city is a waste zone for the party, where they often finished third, behind the Liberals.

Liberal vote % by riding

 The third map shows the Liberal support by riding. I apologize for mostly ignoring the Liberals in my commentary, but in effect, the party is on the brink of death in the province. The party won just one seat, that of its leader Jon Gerrard in River Heights. The Liberals are only "strong" in the central part of Winnipeg these days, the area where they used to win seats federally. They also did well in the northwest part of the city, where their other former seat was located. The only seat the federal Liberals hold in Manitoba is Winnipeg North, and much of the western part of that riding is easily visible on this map. That seat is represented by former MLA Kevin Lamoureux whose seat was abolished in redistribution. Much of that seat became Tyndall Park, where the Liberals finished in a strong 2nd place.  

Turnout % by riding

 Finally, the fourth map shows the turnout percentage by riding. Perhaps a better map to show how the NDP its votes would be to have a map showing actual vote numbers, but this is nearly as good. As you can see, the areas where the NDP did the best had a low voter turnout. Add to the fact that those northern ridings are already below the provincial average in population, and you have a recipe for a great electoral advantage for the NDP. That's not all to say that the strong Tory areas had a high turnout either, as you can see the central Manitoba region also had poor turnout. It seemed what motivitated people the most was close races, or the perception thereof. Just look at Kirkfield Park, Southdale, River East, Dauphin and St. Norbert for example. The riding with the highest turnout was River Heights, another closely watched riding featuring the Liberal leader and a strong Tory challenger.

Update! 
I have been graciously emailed a map showing the raw vote totals by riding. It's not dissimilar from the turnout vote, but as I mentioned it highlights the structural advantage the NDP has in the province

Raw total vote by riding.

 

Newfoundland and Labrador 2011 election prediction (Final edition)

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Newfoundland and Labrador goes to the polls today, and we can expect nothing short of another Tory landslide. The party, which has been in power since 2003, is expected to win a third straight majority mandate. That would normally mean a boring election, however the race is still on for which party will be the official opposition.

Two polls were released last week, one by Environics and one by Corporate Research Associates. Environics shows the Tories at 54%, the NDP at 33%, and the Liberals at 13%. Corporate Research shows the Tories at a whopping 59%, the NDP down to 25% and the Liberals at 16%. Corporate Research also showed us some regional breakdowns, with the Tories ahead across the province. The NDP is in 2^nd place in the eastern part of the province, and in the St. John's area, while the Liberals are 2^nd in the west. Their regional numbers seem to reflect my presumptions about what is going on in the province, with the NDP's surge mainly concentrated in the St. John's area, where they hold both federal seats.

With the NDP seen by many Newfoundlanders as the new opposition party, it will be interesting to see how they do. Much of the St. John's area is a strong Tory area, where most incumbents are running for re-election, therefore the NDP will have a hard time winning seats on 25-33% of the province-wide vote. The pundits are suggesting the best shots for the NDP in the area are St. John's North and St. John's Centre, and apparently the Tories and NDP are running neck and neck in the city. Given all the information I could gather, I've compiled my projections.

Riding by riding projections:

Riding	PC	Lib	NDP	Oth	Winning candidate
Baie Verte-Springdale	44	37	19	-	Kevin Pollard
Bay of Islands	42	35	23	-	Terry Loder
Bellevue	42	35	23	-	Calvin Peach
Bonavista North	57	24	19	-	Eli Cross
Bonavista South	80	6	14	-	Glen Little
Burgeo-La Poile	37	55	8	-	Andrew Parsons
Burin-Placentia West	48	3	49	-	Julie Mitchell
Cape St. Francis	56	5	39	-	Kevin Parsons
Carbonear-Harbour Grace	61	12	27	0	Jerome Kennedy
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair	20	67	13	-	Yvonne Jones
Conception Bay East-Bell Island	56	7	37	-	David Brazil
Conception Bay South	64	9	27	-	Terry French
Exploits	59	20	21	-	Clayton Forsey
Ferryland	69	3	28	-	Keith Hutchings
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune	52	29	19	-	Tracey Perry
Gander	55	16	29	-	Kevin O'Brien
Grand Bank	64	13	23	-	Darin King
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans	56	2	42	-	Susan Sullivan
Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South	61	20	25	-	Ray Hunter
Harbour Main	68	4	28	-	Tom Hedderson
Humber East	73	4	23	-	Tom Marshall
Humber Valley	50	46	4	-	Darryl Kelly
Humber West	53	27	20	-	Vaughn Granter
Kilbride	61	4	35	-	John Dinn
Labrador West	34	3	63	-	Tom Harris
Lake Melville	43	34	23	-	Keith Russell
Lewisporte	60	10	30	-	Wade Verge
Mount Pearl North	66	3	31	-	Steve Kent
Mount Pearl South	66	3	31	-	Paul Lane
Placentia-St. Mary's	65	14	21	-	Felix Collins
Port au Port	70	10	20	-	Tony Cornect
Port de Grave	33	44	23	-	Leanne Hussey
Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi	27	2	71	-	Lorraine Michael
St. Barbe	47	38	15	-	Wallace Young
St. George's-Stephenville East	41	39	18	2	Joan Burke
St. John's Centre	48	3	49	-	Gerry Rogers
St. John's East	48	8	44	-	Ed Buckingham
St. John's North	46	7	47	-	Dale Kirby
St. John's South	57	4	39	-	Tom Osborne
St. John's West	50	15	35	-	Dan Crummell
Terra Nova	63	10	25	2	Sandy Collins
The Isles of Notre Dame	49	44	7	-	Derrick Dalley
The Straits-White Bay North	31	47	22	-	Marshall Dean
Topsail	62	2	36	-	Paul Davis
Torngat Mountains	50	37	13	-	Patty Pottle
Trinity-Bay de Verde	58	16	26	-	Charlene Johnson
Trinity North	71	6	23	-	Rose Wiseman
Virginia Waters	54	3	43	-	Kathy Dunderdale

Predicting the toss ups

Burin-Placentia West

This is certainly an odd seat to suggest the NDP has a chance in, but it's true. The riding isn't in the St. John's area, and the federal party did very poor in this area. The Tory MHA for this riding is the Fisheries Minister, and he is coming under some heat. The NDP candidate, Julie Mitchell ran in this riding in 2007 and did very well. I expect her to gain this seat.

Humber Valley

This is a rematch of the 2007 election between former Liberal MHA Dwight Ball and current Tory MHA Darryl Kelly. That race was quite close, with Kelly winning by about 250 votes. Poll don't suggest much change in this part of the province, so I predict that Kelly will keep this seat.

St. George's-Stephensville East

This is the riding where Liberal leader Kevin Aylward is attempting to gain a seat in the house. He will have a hard time however, as the Tory incumbent, Joan Burke received 75% of the vote here in 2007. Aylward did hold the seat from 1985 to 2003. His final election in 1999 was decided by just 600 votes, despite a Liberal majority government. Burke won the election to replace Aylward by just 500 votes. I expect another close race here, but I think Burke will hold on, embarrassing the Liberals.

The Isles of Notre Dame

Former Liberal leader Gerry Reid lost by just 7 votes in this riding in 2007. He won't be running again this time, but the Liberals are still challenging here with their candidate in Danny Dumaresque. Dumaresque is a former president of the Liberals, and a former MHA representing a Labrador riding. He also ran for the leadership of the party. Given all that, I still feel the Tories will keep this seat.

St. John's East

With the NDP surge happening in St. John's they are sure to be on the rise here. This was the party's best St. John's riding in 2007. They are running consumer advocate George Murphy. If the NDP has a good night, they will win this seat, but for now I think the Tories will keep it.

St. John's Centre

The pundits think that the NDP has a shot here, and so with the NDP on the rise in the city, I'll have to call this for them. They are running filmmaker Gerry Rogers in the riding. She is up against cabinet minister Shawn Skinner. Openly Lesbian, let's hope that homophobia isn't a factor here for Rogers. For the record, the NDP lost this seat by 2700 votes in 2007.

St. John's North

The other seat the pundits say the NDP has a chance in is here. The party is running Dale Kirby, “an award winning” professor at Memorial University. Bob Ridgley is the Tory MHA. The NDP finished third here in 2007, losing by 3000 votes. However, given the rise in the numbers for the party, I will project an NDP win here.

Conclusion

It appears as though it will be much the same in 2011 as it was in 2007, with the Tories winning a landslide election. PC leader Kathy Dunderdale is no Danny Williams, but voters will opt to stay the course in a province that has never been as prosperous. However, the big news will be that the NDP should eke out official opposition status, as long as they can make actual seat gains in St. John's.

Polls close at 8pm Newfoundland time, or 6:30 Eastern.

Ontario election 2011 prediction (Final edition)

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It's finally time to compile my very last prediction of the Ontario provincial election. Voters will be going to the polls today, and the polls are starting to show the Liberals finally breaking away into the lead, but will it be enough for a majority?

There has been many polls since my last projection, including a plethora of riding polls put out by Forum Research that put into question their earlier poll of 40,000 people which was a large enough sample for riding specific results. Just on Tuesday, they put out a poll of the ridings which had been the the closest in their prior poll, which helped me determine where they were (A) wrong and (B) where the movement was. They also put out some riding polls last week for the Ontario Federation of Labour.

For this projection, I used an average of the final polls these last few days. As I was doing the numbers, some last few polls came out, but they only vary somewhat from the numbers I used to make this projection. Most polls are now showing the Liberals in the high 30s, which is only a few points off their mark set in 2007 (42%). The Tories are polling in the mid-to-low 30s, which is around what they got last time (32%). The NDP is polling in the mid-to-low 20s, which is an improvement from the 2007, where they got 17%. Meanwhile, the Greens are polling in the low single digits, about half of what they got in 2007 (8%). It should also be known that the Liberals are polling quite well in the Toronto area, which is where they will make the most gains in votes, but they are still likely to lose some seats to the NDP which are set to gain as many as three seats in the region.

Here are my final predictions:

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Oth	Winning candidate
Ajax—Pickering	47	32	16	4	1	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	30	23	43	3	1	Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	44	35	16	4	1	Ted McMeekin
Barrie	35	40	19	5	1	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	36	18	41	4	1	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	34	24	35	6	1	Jagmeet Singh
Brampton West	45	33	20	2	0	Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale	44	37	12	4	1	Linda Jeffrey
Brant	31	36	25	6	2	Michael St. Amant
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	29	39	17	10	5	Bill Walker
Burlington	35	43	17	4	1	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	31	39	23	6	1	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	32	48	15	4	1	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	29	41	25	5	-	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	39	10	46	3	2	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	54	28	14	2	1	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	59	27	9	4	1	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	26	44	12	18	0	Sylvia Jones
Durham	28	46	21	4	1	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	54	30	13	2	1	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	22	49	24	4	1	Jeff Yurek
Essex	21	40	35	4	-	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	51	30	14	3	2	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	56	25	14	3	2	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	49	28	19	2	2	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	34	48	14	3	1	Marlissa Gosselin
Guelph	41	27	23	8	1	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	22	50	22	4	1	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	34	46	15	5	0	Laurie Scott
Halton	36	43	17	3	1	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	27	16	52	3	2	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	25	22	48	3	2	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	33	24	37	4	2	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	29	40	26	4	1	Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River	19	44	37	2	0	Rod McKay
Kingston and the Islands	46	23	23	6	2	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	39	39	17	4	1	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	39	39	18	4	-	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	39	40	16	4	1	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	24	48	22	5	2	Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	31	45	20	4	-	Randy Hillier
Leeds—Grenville	22	56	18	4	0	Steve Clark
London North Centre	44	28	23	4	1	Deb Matthews
London West	46	28	22	3	1	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	27	26	39	6	2	Teresa Armstrong
Markham—Unionville	55	27	13	4	1	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	42	39	13	5	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	50	35	11	3	1	Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South	46	30	20	3	1	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	43	36	13	5	1	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	48	31	14	7	-	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	31	50	15	3	1	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	37	42	17	4	-	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	35	35	26	2	2	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	23	52	17	6	2	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	21	24	52	3	-	France Gelinas
Nipissing	30	40	25	5	-	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	33	39	21	6	1	Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham	44	40	11	4	1	Helena Jaczek
Oakville	45	33	15	5	2	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	24	37	33	5	1	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	38	21	36	4	1	Yasir Naqvi
Ottawa South	46	37	12	4	1	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	38	40	16	5	1	Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans	42	42	13	3	1	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	49	25	18	7	1	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	27	45	22	4	2	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	36	14	44	3	3	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	28	43	17	11	1	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	45	27	20	5	2	John Wilkinson
Peterborough	42	26	26	5	1	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	49	32	15	3	1	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	33	37	23	5	2	Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	21	57	16	4	0	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	44	36	12	7	1	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	43	33	17	5	2	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	58	18	18	4	2	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	23	44	28	3	2	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	44	21	31	2	2	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	53	24	19	2	1	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	43	22	29	5	1	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	57	21	18	2	2	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	56	21	19	2	2	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	54	13	29	1	3	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	30	39	23	8	-	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	29	47	14	10	-	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	23	52	21	3	1	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	39	18	39	3	1	Paul Loewenburg
Thornhill	41	48	8	2	1	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	33	28	36	3	0	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	37	26	34	3	0	Michael Gravelle
Timikaming—Cochrane	31	16	50	3	0	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	17	35	46	2	0	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	57	14	22	5	2	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	33	13	48	4	2	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	35	12	45	7	1	Rosario Marchese
Vaughan	52	30	14	3	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	22	32	41	4	1	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	32	46	18	4	-	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	32	45	18	4	1	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	54	24	17	4	1	David Zimmer
Windsor West	37	24	31	4	-	Teresa Piruzza
Windsor—Tecumseh	41	24	30	4	1	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	42	37	14	4	1	Monte Kwinter
York South—Weston	39	14	43	3	1	Paul Ferreira
York West	56	12	29	2	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	28	44	21	6	1	Julia Munro

Riding changes since my last prediction:
The Liberals have gained the most since my last projection, gaining a net of 3 seats. I now have them gaining Ancaster—Flamborough—Dundas—Westdale, Brampton—Springdale, Oak Ridges—Markham, and Perth—Wellington from the Tories, while I now have them leading in Ottawa Centre and Windsor West where I had the NDP Leading before. One additional seat was tied in my last prediction, Thunder Bay—Superior North. I now have the Liberals winning it. The gains are offset by some seats I no longer have the Liberals leading in. They were leading in Brant, which I now have going Tory, and I now have the NDP leading in Bramalea—Gore—Malton, London—Fanshawe and Sudbury. I have also taken Kenora—Rainy River away from the NDP and given it to the Tories.

Calling the toss ups

Bramalea—Gore—Malton:

Recent polls suggest that popular NDP candidate Jagmeet Singh will make history here as the first NDPer to win a seat in Peel Region. Singh narrowly lost the seat in the federal election back in May in this heavily South Asian riding. However, the polls still say it's a close race, and with the Liberals coming on strong in the home stretch, especially in the GTA, they may still hold on to this seat. I think Singh will pull through though.

Kitchener Centre:

Recent polls show this riding as a very close race. We may see a repeat of the 2008 federal election which was decided by just 400 votes. In 2007, Liberal MPP John Milloy won this seat by 8,000 votes. It hard to imagine the Tories have a chance here, but that's what the polls are showing. I'm still going to call this Liberal though.

Kitchener—Conestoga:

It was one of the surprises on election night in 2007 that this newly created rural-suburban seat around the Kitchener-Waterloo area did not go conservative. The race was decided by just 2000 votes where Liberal Leanne Pendergast defeated the Tory candidate Michael Harris. The two are facing off again, and it will prove to be another close race. Federally, the seat is a safe Conservative one, so I like Harris' chances here. Tory pick up.

Kitchener—Waterloo:

Polls are also showing a close race in next-door Kitchener—Waterloo. If it weren't for popular Tory incumbent MPP Elizabeth Witmer, this riding would likely be Liberal. Perhaps that's why Witmer is in a tough fight to keep it. In the 2011 federal election, the Liberals nearly won this seat back in a close race. And, the Liberals have been targeting Witmer for quite some time, coming within 1500 votes of ousting her in 2003. However, at the end of the day, I think Witmer's popularity will keep this riding for her.

Mississauga—East Cooksville:

Polls show a close race in this seat that was vacated by the Liberals when its MPP chose to run unsuccessfully for the federal riding. With the Liberals surging in the Greater Toronto Area though, they should be able to keep this seat, which was one of the strongest for the Liberals in the Peel region in the May election.

Niagara Falls

With the Tory and NDP leaders hailing from this region, the Liberal vote here is expected to drop, or at least according to some polls. Liberal MPP Kim Craitor won the seat by 8,000 votes in 2007, but the riding has been Conservative federally since 2004. I expect a close race, but with the Liberals back on top in the polls, they should be able to keep this.

Ottawa Centre

Oh boy, I'm going to get in some trouble here, by picking the Liberals to win. I must admit to working on the NDP campaign here, and while I'm optimistic of an NDP victory, I think the Liberals might just keep the riding. There has been no reliable polling of the riding, but I can tell with the collapse of the large Green vote in 2007, that both the NDP and Liberal numbers will go up. The question is whether or not the NDP can make up the 4% deficit it had in the 2007 election.

Ottawa West—Nepean

Ottawa Citizen columnist Randall Denley is challenging former Ottawa mayor and Liberal MPP Bob Chiarelli in what looks like a really close race. The riding is fairly safe for the Tories federally, and I think it will go that way provincially too. Chiarelli won by just 1300 votes in a by-election last year when the Liberals were polling where they are now. However, he wasn't running against Randall Denley.

Ottawa—Orleans

Another close race in the Ottawa area is in Ottawa—Orleans. The Liberals did very well in this riding despite losing in the 2011 federal election. Provincially, the Liberals won the seat by 9000 votes in 2007. Liberal MPP Phil McNeely is coming under heat by two local councillors however, making him vulnerable. He should be able to keep the riding though, it will be close.

Sudbury

Sudbury is a new seat on the radar, after a couple of polls showed the NDP ahead here. The NDP surprised many by picking up Sudbury in the 2008 federal election. Now, they may surprise many still by winning this seat in this provincial election despite losing by over 10,000 votes last election. The NDP wont surprise me however, as I expect them to hang on and win here.

Thunder Bay—Atikokan

Only 60 votes separated the Liberals and the NDP here in the 2007 election, and it is expected to be close once again. The NDP loser in that election, John Rafferty is now the MP for the area. And so, the NDP must build on this loss with a new candidate in Mary Kozorys. Polls show her leading Liberal MPP Bill Mauro with the Tories increasing their vote close behind as well. I expect the NDP to hold on here.

Thunder Bay—Superior North

Next door in this riding will prove to be another close race. However, I think the strength of Liberal cabinet minister Michael Gravelle will keep this riding for the Liberals. Recent polls have shown him with a small lead in the riding which he won in 2007 by just 2,400 votes.

Conclusion

I am now predicting a Liberal minority government. A strong government, very close to a majority. With the Liberals ahead in 48 seats, they will only need to gain six to get a majority. They can do this by winning the six listed toss up seats where they are losing. Those would be Bramalea—Gore—Malton, Kitchener—Conestoga, Kitchener—Waterloo, Ottawa West—Nepean, Sudbury and Thunder Bay—Atikokan. Meanwhile, the Tories are just 7 seats behind the Liberals in my projection. It is unlikely at current polling numbers for them to overcome this deficit. However, if they win all but one of those toss ups where they are behind, they will have more seats than the Liberals.

Polls close at 9pm Eastern. Please follow my Twitter feed for updates from me at my local election party.