Saskatchewan 2011 provincial election prediction (Oct 30)

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Saskatchewan will be going to the polls a week from Monday, and we finally have seen some opinion polls come out of the province. On Friday, both Insightrix and Forum Research published poll numbers for the upcoming provincial election.

Both firms show a landslide victory in the making for the governing right wing Saskatchewan Party. Forum Research has them at an overwhelming 66% of the vote, while Insightrix has them at 60%. The opposition NDP is at 30% according to Forum Research or 33% according to Insightrix. These polls show a gain for the Saskatchewan Party since my last prediction in the summer, while they have the NDP stagnant.

The SP has gained much of their support thanks to the total collapse of the Liberal Party. The once dominant Saskatchewan Liberal Party will be running just 9 candidates in this election. All but two will be running in Saskatoon. It is likely the Liberals will finish behind the Green Party in popular vote, as the Greens will be running a full slate of candidates. Both polls had the Greens at 3%, while the Liberals are either at 3% or 1%. In other words, neither party will be much of a factor.

A strong economy is really putting the wind in the sails for Premier Brad Wall's government. He is clearly heading toward an historic landslide victory. How far can he go? Will his party be able to win a majority of urban seats? He is unlikely to win all the seats in the province due to is polarized urban vs. Rural split. The NDP is also strong in the north.

Many people are looking at the election of 1982 to compare this race with. In that election, the Tories won 54% of the vote, while the NDP won 38%. It resulted in the Tories winning 55 seats to the NDP's 9. The Tories are now the Saskatchewan Party, and are polling much higher than what they had in 1982. The NDP is also polling much lower. This could mean very bad news for the New Democrats. They may however be buoyed by more polarized electoral map that is present day Saskatchewan.

Seat by seat predictions:

I have averaged the two new polls to come up with the current predictions.

Riding	SP	NDP	Green	Other	Projected winner
Arm River-Watrous	73	24	3	-	Greg Brkich
Athabasca	44	52	4	-	Buckley Belanger
Batoche	70	28	2	-	Delbert Kirsch
Biggar	68	26	4	2	Randy Weeks
Cannington	86	12	1	1	Dan D'Autremont
Canora-Pelly	75	23	2	-	Ken Krawetz
Carrot River Valley	73	26	1	-	Fred Bradshaw
Cumberland	45	48	7	-	Doyle Vermette
Cut Knife-Turtleford	74	24	2	-	Larry Doke
Cypress Hills	86	11	3	-	Wayne Elhard
Estevan	83	14	3	-	Doreen Eagles
Humboldt	73	23	4	-	Donna Harpauer
Indian Head-Milestone	77	19	4	-	Don McMorris
Kelvington-Wadena	81	16	3	-	June Draude
Kindersley	77	19	4	-	Bill Boyd
Last Mountain-Touchwood	72	24	3	1	Glen Hart
Lloydminster	71	28	1	-	Ted McMillan
Martensville	85	12	3	-	Nancy Heppner
Meadow Lake	56	43	1	-	Jeremy Harrison
Melfort	76	23	1	-	Kevin Phillips
Melville-Saltcoats	70	28	1	-	Bob Bjornerud
Moose Jaw North	58	39	2	1	Warren Michelson
Moose Jaw Wakamow	48	47	3	2	Greg Lawrence
Moosomin	84	15	1	-	Don Toth
Prince Albert Carlton	58	40	2	-	Darryl Hickie
Prince Albert Northcote	49	49	2	-	Victoria Jurgens or Darcy Furber
Regina Coronation Park	47	50	3	-	Jaime Garcia
Regina Dewdney	50	38	3	9	Gene Makowsky
Regina Douglas Park	46	49	5	-	Dwain Lingenfelter
Regina Elphinstone-Centre	35	59	6	-	Warren McCall
Regina Lakeview	48	42	5	-	Bob Hawkins
Regina Northeast	54	43	3	-	Kevin Doherty
Regina Qu'Appelle Valley	61	37	2	0	Laura Ross
Regina Rosemont	49	47	4	-	Tony Fiacco
Regina South	60	36	4	-	Bill Hutchinson
Regina Walsh Acres	42	54	4	-	Sandra Morin
Regina Wascana Plains	69	27	3	1	Christine Tell
Rosetown-Elrose	82	14	4	-	Jim Reiter
Rosthern-Shelbrook	66	32	2	-	Scott Moe
Saskatchewan Rivers	66	33	1	-	Nadine Wilson
Saskatoon Centre	44	53	3	-	David Forbes
Saskatoon Eastview	54	43	3	-	Corey Tochor
Saskatoon Fairview	49	48	3	-	Jennifer Campeau
Saskatoon Greystone	51	34	3	14	Rob Norris
Saskatoon Massey Place	48	50	2	-	Cam Broten
Saskatoon Meewasin	56	38	3	3	Roger Parent
Saskatoon Northwest	65	31	3	1	Gordon Wyant
Saskatoon Nutana	45	45	5	5	Zoria Broughton or Cathy Sproule
Saskatoon Riversdale	44	53	3	-	Danielle Chartier
Saskatoon Silver Springs	74	20	3	3	Ken Cheveldayoff
Saskatoon Southeast	70	23	3	4	Don Morgan
Saskatoon Sutherland	56	36	4	4	Paul Merriman
Swift Current	83	15	2	-	Brad Wall
The Battlefords	50	39	2	9	Herb Cox
Thunder Creek	80	17	3	-	Lyle Stewart
Weyburn-Big Muddy	75	22	3	-	Dustin Duncan
Wood River	86	11	3	-	Yogi Huyghebaert
Yorkton	69	30	1	-	Greg Ottenbreit

Riding changes since the last prediction:

While the NDP hasn't gone down in the polls, the increase in numbers for the Saskatchewan Party has hurt the NDP badly, and has put many more seats in the “too close to call range”. Seats I had previously going NDP but are now too close to call include Cumberland, Prince Albert Northcote, Regina Coronation Park, Regina Rosemont, Saskatoon Fairview, Saskatoon Massey Place, and even the NDP leader's own seat of Regina Douglas Park. Meanwhile, I have now called two previous too close to call seats for the Saskatchewan Party. Those are Regina Lakeview and Regina Northeast. 

Conclusion

It looks like the Saskatchewan Party will be winning one of the biggest landslide's in the province's history. Never since Saskatchewan joined Canada in 1905 has a party managed over 60% of the vote. If polls are accurate, the SP will break this record. Therefore, they are in uncharted territory. Never has the main opposition party won less than 5 seats in a provincial election. Right now, the NDP is looking at winning a minimum of just 5 seats. Due to concentrations in Regina, Saskatoon and the north, the NDP is unlikely to break this record of just 5 seats, but who knows what could happen!