Ontario election 2011 prediction (Final edition)

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It's finally time to compile my very last prediction of the Ontario provincial election. Voters will be going to the polls today, and the polls are starting to show the Liberals finally breaking away into the lead, but will it be enough for a majority?

There has been many polls since my last projection, including a plethora of riding polls put out by Forum Research that put into question their earlier poll of 40,000 people which was a large enough sample for riding specific results. Just on Tuesday, they put out a poll of the ridings which had been the the closest in their prior poll, which helped me determine where they were (A) wrong and (B) where the movement was. They also put out some riding polls last week for the Ontario Federation of Labour.

For this projection, I used an average of the final polls these last few days. As I was doing the numbers, some last few polls came out, but they only vary somewhat from the numbers I used to make this projection. Most polls are now showing the Liberals in the high 30s, which is only a few points off their mark set in 2007 (42%). The Tories are polling in the mid-to-low 30s, which is around what they got last time (32%). The NDP is polling in the mid-to-low 20s, which is an improvement from the 2007, where they got 17%. Meanwhile, the Greens are polling in the low single digits, about half of what they got in 2007 (8%). It should also be known that the Liberals are polling quite well in the Toronto area, which is where they will make the most gains in votes, but they are still likely to lose some seats to the NDP which are set to gain as many as three seats in the region.

Here are my final predictions:

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Oth	Winning candidate
Ajax—Pickering	47	32	16	4	1	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	30	23	43	3	1	Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	44	35	16	4	1	Ted McMeekin
Barrie	35	40	19	5	1	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	36	18	41	4	1	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	34	24	35	6	1	Jagmeet Singh
Brampton West	45	33	20	2	0	Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale	44	37	12	4	1	Linda Jeffrey
Brant	31	36	25	6	2	Michael St. Amant
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	29	39	17	10	5	Bill Walker
Burlington	35	43	17	4	1	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	31	39	23	6	1	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	32	48	15	4	1	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	29	41	25	5	-	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	39	10	46	3	2	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	54	28	14	2	1	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	59	27	9	4	1	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	26	44	12	18	0	Sylvia Jones
Durham	28	46	21	4	1	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	54	30	13	2	1	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	22	49	24	4	1	Jeff Yurek
Essex	21	40	35	4	-	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	51	30	14	3	2	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	56	25	14	3	2	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	49	28	19	2	2	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	34	48	14	3	1	Marlissa Gosselin
Guelph	41	27	23	8	1	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	22	50	22	4	1	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	34	46	15	5	0	Laurie Scott
Halton	36	43	17	3	1	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	27	16	52	3	2	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	25	22	48	3	2	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	33	24	37	4	2	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	29	40	26	4	1	Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River	19	44	37	2	0	Rod McKay
Kingston and the Islands	46	23	23	6	2	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	39	39	17	4	1	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	39	39	18	4	-	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	39	40	16	4	1	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	24	48	22	5	2	Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	31	45	20	4	-	Randy Hillier
Leeds—Grenville	22	56	18	4	0	Steve Clark
London North Centre	44	28	23	4	1	Deb Matthews
London West	46	28	22	3	1	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	27	26	39	6	2	Teresa Armstrong
Markham—Unionville	55	27	13	4	1	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	42	39	13	5	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	50	35	11	3	1	Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South	46	30	20	3	1	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	43	36	13	5	1	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	48	31	14	7	-	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	31	50	15	3	1	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	37	42	17	4	-	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	35	35	26	2	2	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	23	52	17	6	2	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	21	24	52	3	-	France Gelinas
Nipissing	30	40	25	5	-	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	33	39	21	6	1	Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham	44	40	11	4	1	Helena Jaczek
Oakville	45	33	15	5	2	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	24	37	33	5	1	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	38	21	36	4	1	Yasir Naqvi
Ottawa South	46	37	12	4	1	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	38	40	16	5	1	Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans	42	42	13	3	1	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	49	25	18	7	1	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	27	45	22	4	2	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	36	14	44	3	3	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	28	43	17	11	1	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	45	27	20	5	2	John Wilkinson
Peterborough	42	26	26	5	1	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	49	32	15	3	1	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	33	37	23	5	2	Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	21	57	16	4	0	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	44	36	12	7	1	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	43	33	17	5	2	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	58	18	18	4	2	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	23	44	28	3	2	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	44	21	31	2	2	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	53	24	19	2	1	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	43	22	29	5	1	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	57	21	18	2	2	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	56	21	19	2	2	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	54	13	29	1	3	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	30	39	23	8	-	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	29	47	14	10	-	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	23	52	21	3	1	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	39	18	39	3	1	Paul Loewenburg
Thornhill	41	48	8	2	1	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	33	28	36	3	0	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	37	26	34	3	0	Michael Gravelle
Timikaming—Cochrane	31	16	50	3	0	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	17	35	46	2	0	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	57	14	22	5	2	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	33	13	48	4	2	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	35	12	45	7	1	Rosario Marchese
Vaughan	52	30	14	3	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	22	32	41	4	1	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	32	46	18	4	-	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	32	45	18	4	1	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	54	24	17	4	1	David Zimmer
Windsor West	37	24	31	4	-	Teresa Piruzza
Windsor—Tecumseh	41	24	30	4	1	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	42	37	14	4	1	Monte Kwinter
York South—Weston	39	14	43	3	1	Paul Ferreira
York West	56	12	29	2	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	28	44	21	6	1	Julia Munro

Riding changes since my last prediction:
The Liberals have gained the most since my last projection, gaining a net of 3 seats. I now have them gaining Ancaster—Flamborough—Dundas—Westdale, Brampton—Springdale, Oak Ridges—Markham, and Perth—Wellington from the Tories, while I now have them leading in Ottawa Centre and Windsor West where I had the NDP Leading before. One additional seat was tied in my last prediction, Thunder Bay—Superior North. I now have the Liberals winning it. The gains are offset by some seats I no longer have the Liberals leading in. They were leading in Brant, which I now have going Tory, and I now have the NDP leading in Bramalea—Gore—Malton, London—Fanshawe and Sudbury. I have also taken Kenora—Rainy River away from the NDP and given it to the Tories.

Calling the toss ups

Bramalea—Gore—Malton:

Recent polls suggest that popular NDP candidate Jagmeet Singh will make history here as the first NDPer to win a seat in Peel Region. Singh narrowly lost the seat in the federal election back in May in this heavily South Asian riding. However, the polls still say it's a close race, and with the Liberals coming on strong in the home stretch, especially in the GTA, they may still hold on to this seat. I think Singh will pull through though.

Kitchener Centre:

Recent polls show this riding as a very close race. We may see a repeat of the 2008 federal election which was decided by just 400 votes. In 2007, Liberal MPP John Milloy won this seat by 8,000 votes. It hard to imagine the Tories have a chance here, but that's what the polls are showing. I'm still going to call this Liberal though.

Kitchener—Conestoga:

It was one of the surprises on election night in 2007 that this newly created rural-suburban seat around the Kitchener-Waterloo area did not go conservative. The race was decided by just 2000 votes where Liberal Leanne Pendergast defeated the Tory candidate Michael Harris. The two are facing off again, and it will prove to be another close race. Federally, the seat is a safe Conservative one, so I like Harris' chances here. Tory pick up.

Kitchener—Waterloo:

Polls are also showing a close race in next-door Kitchener—Waterloo. If it weren't for popular Tory incumbent MPP Elizabeth Witmer, this riding would likely be Liberal. Perhaps that's why Witmer is in a tough fight to keep it. In the 2011 federal election, the Liberals nearly won this seat back in a close race. And, the Liberals have been targeting Witmer for quite some time, coming within 1500 votes of ousting her in 2003. However, at the end of the day, I think Witmer's popularity will keep this riding for her.

Mississauga—East Cooksville:

Polls show a close race in this seat that was vacated by the Liberals when its MPP chose to run unsuccessfully for the federal riding. With the Liberals surging in the Greater Toronto Area though, they should be able to keep this seat, which was one of the strongest for the Liberals in the Peel region in the May election.

Niagara Falls

With the Tory and NDP leaders hailing from this region, the Liberal vote here is expected to drop, or at least according to some polls. Liberal MPP Kim Craitor won the seat by 8,000 votes in 2007, but the riding has been Conservative federally since 2004. I expect a close race, but with the Liberals back on top in the polls, they should be able to keep this.

Ottawa Centre

Oh boy, I'm going to get in some trouble here, by picking the Liberals to win. I must admit to working on the NDP campaign here, and while I'm optimistic of an NDP victory, I think the Liberals might just keep the riding. There has been no reliable polling of the riding, but I can tell with the collapse of the large Green vote in 2007, that both the NDP and Liberal numbers will go up. The question is whether or not the NDP can make up the 4% deficit it had in the 2007 election.

Ottawa West—Nepean

Ottawa Citizen columnist Randall Denley is challenging former Ottawa mayor and Liberal MPP Bob Chiarelli in what looks like a really close race. The riding is fairly safe for the Tories federally, and I think it will go that way provincially too. Chiarelli won by just 1300 votes in a by-election last year when the Liberals were polling where they are now. However, he wasn't running against Randall Denley.

Ottawa—Orleans

Another close race in the Ottawa area is in Ottawa—Orleans. The Liberals did very well in this riding despite losing in the 2011 federal election. Provincially, the Liberals won the seat by 9000 votes in 2007. Liberal MPP Phil McNeely is coming under heat by two local councillors however, making him vulnerable. He should be able to keep the riding though, it will be close.

Sudbury

Sudbury is a new seat on the radar, after a couple of polls showed the NDP ahead here. The NDP surprised many by picking up Sudbury in the 2008 federal election. Now, they may surprise many still by winning this seat in this provincial election despite losing by over 10,000 votes last election. The NDP wont surprise me however, as I expect them to hang on and win here.

Thunder Bay—Atikokan

Only 60 votes separated the Liberals and the NDP here in the 2007 election, and it is expected to be close once again. The NDP loser in that election, John Rafferty is now the MP for the area. And so, the NDP must build on this loss with a new candidate in Mary Kozorys. Polls show her leading Liberal MPP Bill Mauro with the Tories increasing their vote close behind as well. I expect the NDP to hold on here.

Thunder Bay—Superior North

Next door in this riding will prove to be another close race. However, I think the strength of Liberal cabinet minister Michael Gravelle will keep this riding for the Liberals. Recent polls have shown him with a small lead in the riding which he won in 2007 by just 2,400 votes.

Conclusion

I am now predicting a Liberal minority government. A strong government, very close to a majority. With the Liberals ahead in 48 seats, they will only need to gain six to get a majority. They can do this by winning the six listed toss up seats where they are losing. Those would be Bramalea—Gore—Malton, Kitchener—Conestoga, Kitchener—Waterloo, Ottawa West—Nepean, Sudbury and Thunder Bay—Atikokan. Meanwhile, the Tories are just 7 seats behind the Liberals in my projection. It is unlikely at current polling numbers for them to overcome this deficit. However, if they win all but one of those toss ups where they are behind, they will have more seats than the Liberals.

Polls close at 9pm Eastern. Please follow my Twitter feed for updates from me at my local election party.