Ontario election 2011 prediction (September 2)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

As the writs are about to be dropped in Ontario, it is time to do my final prediction before the official campaign begins. A lot has happened since my last prediction 2 weeks ago, as the campaign heats up. The biggest event of this period has to have been the death of federal NDP leader Jack Layton. Some are attributing his death to a sympathy bump for not only the federal party (which in a recent poll of federal voters, is now tied with the Conservatives), but also for the provincial party.

My last projection showed the NDP at its lowest level since March. However, two recent polls have shown a rebound for the party. The two polls were conducted earlier this week by Forum Research and Angus Reid. Forum Research has the NDP at 26% while Angus Reid has the party at 24%. The party is still in third place in both polls, but the race between the three parties is beginning to narrow. Angus Reid has the Tories at 38%, the Liberals at 31% and the Greens at 6%. Forum Research has the Tories a bit lower at 35%, the Liberals are at 30% and the Greens at 7%. Both polls confirm that the Tories are polling lower than they were earlier in the summer when they were in the low 40s, meaning a minority government is becoming more and more likely.

I am basing this projection on an average of both polls, but rounding up to favour the Forum Research poll which polled twice as many people as Angus Reid. Future projections will be using averages as well. I hope to come out with a new Ontario projection. However, I will be busy with other work during the campaign, which could limit my posts.

Methodology/disclaimer

Once again, I should mention how I am coming to my conclusions,

(From my early August projection)

I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.

Seat by seat projection

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Projected winner
Ajax—Pickering	41	39	14	6	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	32	18	44	4	Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	31	43	18	8	Donna Skelly
Barrie	21	49	20	9	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	18	19	52	11	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	37	29	28	6	Kuldip Kular
Brampton West	38	39	16	7	Ben Shenouda
Brampton—Springdale	38	37	19	6	Linda Jeffrey
Brant	37	34	22	6	Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	21	49	17	13	Bill Walker
Burlington	25	48	19	8	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	20	47	25	8	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	30	49	14	7	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	24	46	25	5	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	29	12	53	6	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	39	31	24	6	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	44	39	10	7	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	20	50	12	18	Sylvia Jones
Durham	23	49	20	8	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	47	37	10	6	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	22	49	23	6	Jeff Yurek
Essex	19	40	35	6	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	44	37	14	5	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	47	26	23	4	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	37	37	19	7	Laurel Broten or Simon Nyilassy
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	44	37	14	5	Grant Crack
Guelph	42	29	16	13	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	20	61	16	3	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	33	47	14	6	Laurie Scott
Halton	29	48	16	7	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	20	19	52	9	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	23	29	43	5	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	28	28	40	4	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	35	37	22	6	Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River	26	33	40	2	Sarah Campbell
Kingston and the Islands	41	30	22	7	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	38	33	21	7	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	33	42	19	6	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	26	47	19	8	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	35	39	19	7	Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	29	45	20	6	Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville	21	57	16	6	Steve Clark
London North Centre	37	29	24	10	Deb Matthews
London West	40	32	19	9	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	33	30	32	5	Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville	43	32	21	4	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	42	35	18	5	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	41	41	12	6	Charles Sousa or Geoff Janoscik
Mississauga—Brampton South	40	38	17	5	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	38	39	16	6	David Brown
Mississauga—Streetsville	42	37	15	6	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	28	50	15	7	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	30	48	14	8	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	36	36	18	10	Kim Craitor or George Lepp
Niagara West—Glanbrook	17	57	20	6	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	24	20	53	3	France Gelinas
Nipissing	34	46	17	3	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	34	37	20	9	Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham	34	44	16	6	Farid Wassef
Oakville	40	40	13	7	Kevin Flynn or Larry Scott
Oshawa	13	44	37	6	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	30	21	41	8	Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South	42	33	18	7	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	38	39	18	5	Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans	42	39	13	6	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	43	23	26	8	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	19	53	20	8	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	24	15	53	8	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	15	51	23	11	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	38	40	15	7	Randy Pettapiece
Peterborough	36	31	25	8	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	41	34	18	7	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	32	39	22	5	Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	17	67	13	3	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	39	38	16	7	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	39	35	20	6	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	43	30	21	6	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	20	48	29	5	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	46	18	31	3	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	38	31	28	4	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	34	25	34	7	Lorenzo Berardinetti or Bruce Budd
Scarborough—Agincourt	49	29	19	3	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	39	31	26	4	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	51	22	24	3	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	20	54	17	9	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	18	55	15	12	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	24	54	17	5	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	45	16	35	4	Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill	32	53	11	4	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	27	25	45	3	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	37	13	45	5	Steve Mantis
Timikaming—Cochrane	29	20	49	2	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	24	24	49	2	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	43	21	28	8	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	24	12	54	10	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	26	15	49	10	Rasario Marchese
Vaughan	49	34	12	5	Greg Sorbara
Welland	19	33	42	6	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	23	56	12	9	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	21	50	21	8	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	40	38	16	6	David Zimmer
Windsor West	20	26	50	5	Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh	37	25	32	6	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	39	41	15	5	Michael Mostyn
York South—Weston	36	15	43	6	Paul Ferriera
York West	50	17	29	4	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	19	53	18	10	Julia Munro

Seat changes since last projection

Both the Liberals and the Tories lost support in the last two weeks, almost evenly, with the Liberals suffering slightly more. That is why there were not many seats projected to go from the Liberals to the Tories. Most of the projection changes involved seats projected to go to the NDP or to toss up.

The Liberals are down six seats in this projection. Brant, Ottawa—Orleans and Willowdale are all now toss ups with the Tories. Scarborough Southwest is now a toss up with the NDP, while London—Fanshawe is now a three-way toss up. Thunder Bay—Superior North has been shifted from the Liberal column all the way to the NDP's.

The Tories are down two seats in this projection. Both Kenora—Rainy River and Welland are now projected to go NDP, instead of PC.

Finally, 7 former toss up ridings are now projected to go NDP. These are Algoma—Manitoulin, Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Ottawa Centre, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Timiskaming—Cochrane and York South—Weston.

Conclusion

The NDP was the big beneficiary of this projection, gaining ten seats from two weeks ago. In addition, they are now tied in Scarborough Southwest and are in toss up range in London—Fanshawe, putting their maximum at 21. This NDP surge has made a minority government situation all but inevitable at this point. The Tories have the projected seat lead, looking at a minimum of 37 seats and a maximum of 56 seats (factoring in 19 of those 20 toss ups). 57 seats would give them a bare majority. The Liberals are outside of being able to win a majority at this point, with their maximum at 51 seats (minimum is at 31).

The Toronto Star has said that this race is now a 3-way race, but the NDP is still in third place at the moment. They need to win some of their distant targets to over come the Liberals to form the official opposition. In addition to their 21 maximum, they would also need to win Windsor—Tecumseh, Sudbury, Scarborough Centre, Oshawa, Essex and Bramalea—Gore—Malton to tie the Liberals at 27 seats. They are projected to be within 10% in those seats.