Newfoundland and Labrador 2011 election prediction (Sept. 20)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

A second poll has come out during the Newfoundland and Labrador election campaign, and it shows the beginnings of an NDP surge in the province, but with the Tories still firmly in landslide majority status.

A poll done my MQO Research this past weekend has the Tories still with a majority of popular support at 53%, the NDP firmly in second now at 29% and the Liberals trailing in third at 18%. The last poll (conducted by Corporate Research Associates) we saw from August, had the numbers at 54-24-22.

Unfortunately there are no regional breakdowns for any of these polls, and considering Newfoundland is such a diverse province geographically, I can only make guesses with my projection. I suspect much of the NDP surge is coming from the St. John's area, where they hold both federal seats. This is the same area where the Tories won massive majorities in the last provincial election in 2007. Even with the NDP polling much higher, these numbers will be hard for them to overcome. I'm not too familiar campaigns there, but if things are looking good for the NDP, the party can make some pick ups.They do have some strong candidates.

Riding by riding projections:

Riding	PC	Lib	NDP	Winning candidate
Baie Verte-Springdale	39	40	21	Neil Ward
Bay of Islands	44	43	13	Terry Loder
Bellevue	39	38	23	Calvin Peach
Bonavista North	51	27	22	Eli Cross
Bonavista South	77	9	14	Glen Little
Burgeo-La Poile	31	58	11	Andrew Parsons
Burin-Placentia West	46	5	49	Julie Mitchell
Cape St. Francis	58	8	34	Kevin Parsons
Carbonear-Harbour Grace	58	15	27	Jerome Kennedy
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair	17	70	13	Yvonne Jones
Conception Bay East-Bell Island	53	10	37	David Brazil
Conception Bay South	61	12	27	Terry French
Exploits	53	23	24	Clayton Forsey
Ferryland	67	5	28	Keith Hutchings
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune	46	32	22	Tracey Perry
Gander	52	19	29	Kevin O'Brien
Grand Bank	61	16	23	Darin King
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans	52	3	45	Susan Sullivan
Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South	55	23	22	Ray Hunter
Harbour Main	65	7	28	Tom Hedderson
Humber East	67	7	26	Tom Marshall
Humber Valley	41	52	7	Dwight Ball
Humber West	47	30	23	Vaughn Granter
Kilbride	73	4	23	John Dinn
Labrador West	33	4	63	Tom Harris
Lake Melville	40	37	23	Keith Russell
Lewisporte	54	13	33	Wade Verge
Mount Pearl North	65	4	31	Steve Kent
Mount Pearl South	65	4	31	Paul Lane
Placentia-St. Mary's	62	17	21	Felix Collins
Port au Port	64	13	23	Tony Cornect
Port de Grave	30	47	23	Leanne Hussey
Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi	26	2	72	Lorraine Michael
St. Barbe	41	41	18	Wallace Young or Jim Bennett
St. George's-Stephenville East	34	43	23	Joan Burke
St. John's Centre	55	4	41	Shawn Skinner
St. John's East	51	6	43	Ed Buckingham
St. John's North	58	6	36	Bob Ridgley
St. John's South	59	4	38	Tom Osborne
St. John's West	55	12	33	Dan Crummell
Terra Nova	57	13	29	Sandy Collins
The Isles of Notre Dame	42	48	10	Danny Dumaresque
The Straits-White Bay North	25	50	25	Marshall Dean
Topsail	61	3	36	Paul Davis
Torngat Mountains	47	40	13	Patty Pottle
Trinity-Bay de Verde	55	19	26	Charlene Johnson
Trinity North	65	9	26	Rose Wiseman
Virginia Waters	59	4	37	Kathy Dunderdale

Conclusion

Not much has changed in this projection, despite the new NDP surge. The NDP support is not concentrated heavily enough in any seats to help them win many more, but we must keep a close eye on the St. John's area. So far, I only have them picking up Burin-Placentia West from the Tories, but it's still in the toss up zone. However, they are inching closer in some St. John's seats. The Liberals meanwhile would still form official opposition thanks to concentrated strengths in a number of seats. In this projection they have lost Bellevue and Bay of Islands, and there is now a tie in St. Barbe. All of these seats are still in the toss up zone, and aren't reflected as changes in the below chart. The only change there was the Torngat Mountains which have been removed from the toss up category and put into the Tory one.

For those keeping track, the NDP would need to win six more seats to get opposition status. They would have to gain St. John's East, St. John's Centre, Lake Melville, Grand-Falls-Windsor-Buchans, Conception Bay East-Bell Island and Bellevue. And that would still require a 10 point swing! However, with very little knowledge at this point, anything can happen.