Manitoba election 2011 prediction (September 30th edition)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

Manitoba, which goes to the polls on Tuesday in their provincial election, finally saw some polling numbers this past week. After not having a poll since June, three polls have just come out. The most recent one was just released this morning by Probe Research, and gave the NDP a moderate lead over the Tories of 46% to 43%, with the Liberals far behind at 7% and the Greens at 4%

These numbers don't show a huge change from the last election in 2007, where the NDP won 45% of the vote, and the Tories 38%. The poll also showed that the NDP is holding ground in Winnipeg, which holds most of the seats in the province, while the Tories are gaining, but only at the expense of the Liberals. However, in rural Manitoba, the NDP is down considerably, and this might mean some seat losses. However, must of rural Manitoba votes overwhelmingly PC anyways, so much of this swing will be wasted.

Due to the small change in voter support from 2007, I expect little change from that election. Following is my riding by riding projections for Tuesday's election. Note, I have not been able to get a hold of the transposition of the votes from the last election (Manitoba has just undergone boundary redistribution), however, I have been pointed to some poll maps from the last election overlaid with the new boundaries. That gave me a good idea as to how much some ridings will have changed. Many thanks to Krago from the rabble.ca forum for making these!

Riding	NDP	PC	Lib	Grn	Oth	Projected winner
Agassiz	27	67	6	3	-	Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden	17	79	4	-	-	Larry Maguire
Assiniboia	58	36	3	3	-	Jim Rondeau
Brandon East	43	47	4	6	-	Mike Waddell
Brandon West	44	52	4	-	0	Reg Hellwer
Burrows	67	28	3	2	0	Melanie Wight
Charleswood	26	63	6	5	-	Myrna Driedger
Concordia	68	26	3	3	-	Matt Wiebe
Dauphin	45	47	3	5	-	Lloyd McKinney
Dawson Trail	39	57	4	-	-	Laurent Tetrault
Elmwood	60	26	10	4	-	Jim Maloway
Emerson	18	67	15	-	-	Cliff Graydon
Flin Flon	65	25	7	3	-	Clarence Petterson
Fort Garry-Riverview	58	27	11	4	-	James Allum
Fort Richmond	55	33	10	2	-	Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Rouge	47	24	24	5	-	Jennifer Howard
Fort Whyte	31	64	5	-	-	Hugh McFadyen
Gimli	50	42	4	4	-	Peter Bjornson
Interlake	49	48	3	-	0	Tom Nevakshonoff
Kewatinook	54	40	4	2	-	Eric Robinson
Kildonan	62	35	3	-	-	Dave Chomiak
Kirkfield Park	48	44	4	4	-	Sharon Blady
La Verendrye	25	67	4	3	-	Dennis Smook
Lac du Bonnet	22	69	6	3	-	Wayne Ewasko
Lakeside	31	61	4	4	-	Ralph Eichler
Logan	60	22	13	5	0	Flor Marcelino
Midland	21	69	10	-	-	Blaine Pederson
Minto	62	20	10	6	2	Andrew Swan
Morden-Winkler	10	83	5	-	-	Cameron Friesen
Morris	30	64	6	-	-	Mavis Taillieu
Point Douglas	58	30	7	3	2	Kevin Chief
Portage La Prairie	39	54	7	-	-	Ian Wishart
Radisson	58	39	3	-	-	Bidhu Jha
Riding Mountain	31	64	5	5	-	Leanne Rowat
Riel	60	34	6	-	-	Christine Melnick
River East	45	50	3	2	-	Bonnie Mitchelson
River Heights	25	34	38	3	-	Jon Gerrard
Rossmere	50	44	3	3	-	Erna Braun
Seine River	59	35	6	-	-	Theresa Oswald
Selkirk	45	50	5	-	-	David Bell
Southdale	49	48	3	-	-	Erin Selby
Spruce Woods	21	71	8	-	-	Cliff Cullen
St. Boniface	65	24	7	4	-	Greg Selinger
St. James	48	44	3	5	-	Deanne Cruthers
St. Johns	63	30	3	4	-	Gord Mackintosh
St. Norbert	38	55	7	-	-	Karen Velthuys
St. Paul	31	59	8	-	-	Ron Schuler
St. Vital	65	31	4	-	-	Nancy Allan
Steinbach	8	88	4	-	-	Kevin Goertzen
Swan River	48	45	3	-	-	Ron Kostyshyn
The Maples	53	38	8	1	-	Mohinder Saran
The Pas	72	25	3	-	-	Frank Whitehead
Thompson	68	18	14	-	-	Steve Ashton
Transcona	67	30	3	-	-	Daryl Reid
Tuxedo	33	52	12	3	-	Heather Stefanson
Tyndall Park	67	23	8	2	-	Ted Marcelino
Wolseley	65	17	5	13	-	Rob Altemeyer

Riding changes since last prediction

For the most part, there were just some alterations from my last projection, despite the fact that it has been three months since my last one. I have now taken Swan River, Interlake, Selkirk and Brandon East out of the NDP category and put them into too close to call. Meanwhile, River Heights the only Liberal call I had is now too close to call as well. River East is the only riding that I had projected to go Tory that has been put into the too close to call column. Meanwhile, the Tories are now projected to win Dawson Trails and St. Norbert, both pick ups from my last projection. And, Fort Richmond is now projected to go NDP. 

Conclusion

It looks like the NDP will be headed for their fourth straight majority government. Their slim lead in the polls doesn't matter too much, due to the fact that their benefited from having much of the Tory vote being wasted in rural Manitoba. However, if the Tories win all of their too close to call seats, they can still win a majority of their own. In addition to the 24 seats I have them projected to win or are leading in, they would also have to win Interlake, Kirkfield Park, Southdale, Swan River and either St. James or River Heights to get a majority. Not outside the realm of possibility.

Forum Research poll riding by riding map

Last weekend, Forum Research published a poll of 40,000 Ontarians asking their voting intentions for the provincial election next week. The sample was so high, that they were able to get numbers for individual ridings. I have been trying franctically this past week to find some information about how they have local races, and I had only been able to find the GTA numbers and a few others. Well, this morning I got a surprise email from Krago who posts on the rabble.ca forums. He sent me an email with all of the numbers. And since this is an Elections Atlas, what better way to show those numbers than in map form? Here it is:

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

The map is not too off my prediction, but there are a few anomalies I must investigate. Among the ridings I have not called for the Tories, they are apparently ahead in Brant, Kitchener Centre, Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, Brampton-Springdale, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Kenora-Rainy River and Ottawa-Orleans. Meanwhile, the Liberals are ahead in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Windsor West, Perth-Wellington, Parkdale-High Park, York South-Weston, Kitchener-Waterloo and Ottawa Centre. The NDP was the big loser in this poll, but the one bright spot for them is they area ahead in London-Fanshawe despite my last prediction.

Of course, I have my suspicions about some of the local numbers, but for the most part this map is going to be pretty accurate.

Ontario election 2011 prediction (september 26)

Outline by S. Smith

This past weekend, Forum Research published the largest poll in Canadian history for the provincial election in Ontario. 40,000 people were polled, asking which party they were supporting. This poll was so large, individual riding results were also published within a certain degree of accuracy.

For this projection, I will only be looking at this particular poll, due to the fact that there is no way you can get more accurate than 40,000 respondents- the margin of error was just 0.5%. The results of the poll are quite interesting; it showed an exact tie between the Tories and the Liberals at 35%, with the NDP trailing not too far behind at 23%. The Greens meanwhile are at a respectable 6% province wide.

Looking at individual ridings, according to Forum Research these numbers translate to 47 seats each for the Liberals and Tories and just 13 for NDP. This is where the errors comes in. With a tie vote, the Liberals should have the edge in seats, but they don't. This can be explained by large rural swings against them, which I factored into my projection. But one statistic that doesn't sit right is the 13 seats for the NDP. That would mean a net increase of just three seats on a swing of 6%. This seams ridiculous considering the party was able to win 17 seats on just 18% of the vote in the 2008 federal election. But who knows, perhaps the party is doing well, but not in any concentrations.

The report published in the Toronto Star indicated that there were 28 seats within 5% of the vote, but didn't say who was leading or in second place in them. They were: Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough--Westdale, Beaches--East York, Bramalea—Gore—Malton, Brampton—Springdale, Halton, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener—Conestoga, Kitchener—Waterloo, London North Centre, London West, Mississauga East, Mississauga—Erindale, Mississauga South, Niagara Falls, Oak Ridges—Markham, Ottawa South, Pickering--Scarborough East, Richmond Hill, St. Catharines, Thornhill, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay--Superior North, Timmins--James Bay, Trinity—Spadina, Welland, Windsor—Tecumseh, Windsor West and York Centre.

Some of those seats make sense, but others are quite odd, like McGuinty in danger of losing his seat in Ottawa South, or the NDP at risk of losing Timmins—James Bay. Additionally, there are some notable absences from this list, like my own riding of Ottawa Centre. Some of the individual riding sample sizes are quite low however. Timmins—James Bay had just 54 respondents in the poll.

Sunday morning I looked for some individual riding numbers, and found some for the Greater Toronto Area. Looking at the map found that most ridings seemed to be accurate, but there are a few oddities. Specifically, how poor the NDP seems to be doing in Toronto, despite polls from earlier last week showing the party was doing better than they were at federally. Forum Research has the party losing Parkdale—High Park surprisingly, and in danger of losing the two strongholds of Trinity—Spadina and Beaches—East York. Also, the party is way behind in York South—Weston, despite some indications of a strong NDP campaign there. Also, the Tories being ahead in two Brampton ridings is a bit of a surprise, considering I would have expected other ridings to go first. I suppose many Indo-Canadians are warming up to the provincial Tories at the expense of the Liberals.

I also found some numbers from Bruce, Grey and Simcoe Counties. The big surprise here is the collapse of the Liberal vote in Huron—Bruce which is part of the reason why I suspect the Liberals are way behind in their rural seats.

And so, I am left to make a new projection from all of this. I didn't just copy and paste the poll numbers into the ridings, but I did make some adjustments where I could find the numbers. Some wonky ridings I nearly ignored completely, but then again, it's possible the polls are correct about those seats. I will be taking a close look at these seats in the next week and a half before election day.

Seat by seat projection

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Oth	Projected winner
Ajax—Pickering	43	37	13	6	1	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	37	15	41	5	1	Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	36	41	16	6	1	Donna Skelly
Barrie	26	47	19	7	1	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	32	18	39	10	1	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	36	32	27	4	1	Kuldip Kular
Brampton West	42	38	16	4	0	Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale	38	39	17	5	1	Pam Hundal
Brant	40	34	20	4	2	Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	29	42	13	11	5	Bill Walker
Burlington	31	46	17	5	1	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	25	45	24	5	1	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	35	47	12	5	1	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	27	45	23	5	-	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	35	11	47	5	2	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	43	30	22	4	1	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	47	38	8	6	1	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	24	49	10	17	0	Sylvia Jones
Durham	27	47	19	6	1	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	50	36	9	4	1	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	25	49	21	4	1	Jeff Yurek
Essex	24	40	32	4	-	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	47	35	12	4	2	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	48	25	21	4	2	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	41	34	17	6	2	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	37	44	13	5	1	Marlissa Gosselin
Guelph	45	28	15	11	1	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	20	60	15	4	1	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	34	47	13	6	0	Laurie Scott
Halton	34	46	14	4	1	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	23	18	50	7	2	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	26	28	40	4	2	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	30	27	37	4	2	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	32	38	25	4	1	Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River	29	31	36	4	0	Sarah Campbell
Kingston and the Islands	44	29	20	5	2	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	40	35	19	5	1	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	36	41	18	5	-	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	37	43	14	5	1	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	35	40	19	4	2	Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	33	43	18	6	-	Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville	25	55	14	6	0	Steve Clark
London North Centre	39	32	21	7	1	Deb Matthews
London West	44	38	17	4	1	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	35	29	30	4	2	Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville	48	29	18	4	1	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	42	38	15	4	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	44	40	11	4	1	Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South	43	36	16	4	1	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	42	38	15	4	1	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	44	36	13	7	-	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	30	49	13	7	1	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	34	46	14	6	-	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	42	36	16	5	2	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	21	54	18	5	2	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	25	20	51	4	-	France Gelinas
Nipissing	34	46	16	4	-	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	35	40	18	6	1	Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham	39	42	14	4	1	Farid Wassef
Oakville	43	39	11	5	2	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	18	42	35	4	1	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	32	20	39	8	1	Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South	42	35	16	6	1	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	37	41	16	5	1	Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans	43	41	11	4	1	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	41	27	24	7	1	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	23	52	18	5	2	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	32	14	44	7	3	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	19	48	22	10	1	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	37	42	13	6	2	Randy Pettapiece
Peterborough	42	29	23	5	1	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	42	36	16	5	1	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	34	39	21	4	2	Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	18	65	13	4	0	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	42	37	14	6	1	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	40	35	18	5	2	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	43	28	19	8	2	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	23	45	26	4	2	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	51	16	27	4	2	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	43	28	24	4	1	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	39	24	31	5	1	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	50	27	17	4	2	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	41	30	23	4	2	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	45	21	28	3	3	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	24	52	17	7	-	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	23	54	13	10	-	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	28	51	16	4	1	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	49	14	32	4	1	Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill	41	45	9	4	1	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	32	23	41	4	0	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	42	12	42	4	0	Michael Gravelle or Steve Mantis
Timikaming—Cochrane	35	17	44	4	0	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	29	22	45	4	0	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	44	20	26	8	2	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	26	11	52	9	2	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	33	14	45	7	1	Rasario Marchese
Vaughan	51	33	11	4	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	24	33	38	4	1	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	27	55	11	7	-	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	26	48	19	6	1	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	43	36	15	5	1	David Zimmer
Windsor West	33	20	43	4	-	Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh	41	20	34	4	1	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	41	40	13	5	1	Monte Kwinter
York South—Weston	39	14	42	4	1	Paul Ferriera
York West	51	17	27	4	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	24	52	17	6	1	Julia Munro

Seat changes since last projection

The Tories were the main beneficiary of this projection, gaining six seats in my theory that they are winning all of the rural Liberal seats. These are Huron—Bruce, Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Northumberland—Quinte West, Perth—Wellington and Prince Edward—Hastings. Also, the absence of Ottawa West—Nepean on that close race list means that I believe it is firmly in the Tory column as well, making it the sixth Tory gain. Three of those Tory gains were from projected toss up seats. The NDP also gained on seat in this projection, in Algoma—Manitoulin (from toss up). Brampton—Springdale and Ottawa—Orleans are new toss ups, as those previously Liberal projected seats are now close races.

Conclusion

While I didn't come up with a tie in seats like Forum Research did, I did get a close result. Either the Tories or the Liberals can win this, but it will be a minority. The Tories are presently two seats behind. Even though I shifted many Liberal seats into the Tory column, I still couldn't get to the number provided in the forum research poll. And, I have no idea where they have the NDP gaining seats, but I suspect their low sample sizes in the north have meant that their numbers weren't too NDP friendly. In any event, I have the NDP winning at least 17 seats, not 13. And they will be holding the balance of power. 

Methodology/disclaimer

I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.

Newfoundland and Labrador 2011 election prediction (Sept. 20)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

A second poll has come out during the Newfoundland and Labrador election campaign, and it shows the beginnings of an NDP surge in the province, but with the Tories still firmly in landslide majority status.

A poll done my MQO Research this past weekend has the Tories still with a majority of popular support at 53%, the NDP firmly in second now at 29% and the Liberals trailing in third at 18%. The last poll (conducted by Corporate Research Associates) we saw from August, had the numbers at 54-24-22.

Unfortunately there are no regional breakdowns for any of these polls, and considering Newfoundland is such a diverse province geographically, I can only make guesses with my projection. I suspect much of the NDP surge is coming from the St. John's area, where they hold both federal seats. This is the same area where the Tories won massive majorities in the last provincial election in 2007. Even with the NDP polling much higher, these numbers will be hard for them to overcome. I'm not too familiar campaigns there, but if things are looking good for the NDP, the party can make some pick ups.They do have some strong candidates.

Riding by riding projections:

Riding	PC	Lib	NDP	Winning candidate
Baie Verte-Springdale	39	40	21	Neil Ward
Bay of Islands	44	43	13	Terry Loder
Bellevue	39	38	23	Calvin Peach
Bonavista North	51	27	22	Eli Cross
Bonavista South	77	9	14	Glen Little
Burgeo-La Poile	31	58	11	Andrew Parsons
Burin-Placentia West	46	5	49	Julie Mitchell
Cape St. Francis	58	8	34	Kevin Parsons
Carbonear-Harbour Grace	58	15	27	Jerome Kennedy
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair	17	70	13	Yvonne Jones
Conception Bay East-Bell Island	53	10	37	David Brazil
Conception Bay South	61	12	27	Terry French
Exploits	53	23	24	Clayton Forsey
Ferryland	67	5	28	Keith Hutchings
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune	46	32	22	Tracey Perry
Gander	52	19	29	Kevin O'Brien
Grand Bank	61	16	23	Darin King
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans	52	3	45	Susan Sullivan
Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South	55	23	22	Ray Hunter
Harbour Main	65	7	28	Tom Hedderson
Humber East	67	7	26	Tom Marshall
Humber Valley	41	52	7	Dwight Ball
Humber West	47	30	23	Vaughn Granter
Kilbride	73	4	23	John Dinn
Labrador West	33	4	63	Tom Harris
Lake Melville	40	37	23	Keith Russell
Lewisporte	54	13	33	Wade Verge
Mount Pearl North	65	4	31	Steve Kent
Mount Pearl South	65	4	31	Paul Lane
Placentia-St. Mary's	62	17	21	Felix Collins
Port au Port	64	13	23	Tony Cornect
Port de Grave	30	47	23	Leanne Hussey
Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi	26	2	72	Lorraine Michael
St. Barbe	41	41	18	Wallace Young or Jim Bennett
St. George's-Stephenville East	34	43	23	Joan Burke
St. John's Centre	55	4	41	Shawn Skinner
St. John's East	51	6	43	Ed Buckingham
St. John's North	58	6	36	Bob Ridgley
St. John's South	59	4	38	Tom Osborne
St. John's West	55	12	33	Dan Crummell
Terra Nova	57	13	29	Sandy Collins
The Isles of Notre Dame	42	48	10	Danny Dumaresque
The Straits-White Bay North	25	50	25	Marshall Dean
Topsail	61	3	36	Paul Davis
Torngat Mountains	47	40	13	Patty Pottle
Trinity-Bay de Verde	55	19	26	Charlene Johnson
Trinity North	65	9	26	Rose Wiseman
Virginia Waters	59	4	37	Kathy Dunderdale

Conclusion

Not much has changed in this projection, despite the new NDP surge. The NDP support is not concentrated heavily enough in any seats to help them win many more, but we must keep a close eye on the St. John's area. So far, I only have them picking up Burin-Placentia West from the Tories, but it's still in the toss up zone. However, they are inching closer in some St. John's seats. The Liberals meanwhile would still form official opposition thanks to concentrated strengths in a number of seats. In this projection they have lost Bellevue and Bay of Islands, and there is now a tie in St. Barbe. All of these seats are still in the toss up zone, and aren't reflected as changes in the below chart. The only change there was the Torngat Mountains which have been removed from the toss up category and put into the Tory one.

For those keeping track, the NDP would need to win six more seats to get opposition status. They would have to gain St. John's East, St. John's Centre, Lake Melville, Grand-Falls-Windsor-Buchans, Conception Bay East-Bell Island and Bellevue. And that would still require a 10 point swing! However, with very little knowledge at this point, anything can happen.