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Monday, April 16, 2012

2012 Alberta election prediction (April 16)

Current projection map.

There is now one week before the Alberta provincial election, being held next Monday. In the last week, we have yet to see much change in the polls. The right wing Wild Rose Party is still on top, regularly polling in the low 40s. The governing Progressive Conservatives are still typically polling around 30%.

Last week, we saw the televised leaders debates. All four party leaders had their strengths and weaknesses, and there was no clear winner. There has only been one poll released that was conducted post-debate. That poll, conducted by Return on Insight for the CBC showed the race between the two main parties getting closer, with the Tories gaining steam at 36%, while the WRP remains at about 43%. However, the poll seems somewhat dubious. While those numbers seem plausible, the regional numbers smell fishy. They show the Tories just four points between the WRP in Calgary, and the Tories behind the WRP in Edmonton by a greater margin of six percent! Unless another poll shows similar numbers, I am not going to put much faith into this poll, by an organization I've never heard of and which hasn't done a poll yet this campaign.

Most of my numbers were based on polls released by Abacus, Forum Research and Think HQ Public Affairs, last week. I also took into consideration comments left here on my blog, as well as other sources I've come across. I was also sent an email by the guy who runs the ChangeAlberta site, advocating that progressives vote strategically this election. I found the site to be a great resource in terms of determining how certain candidates are doing. I'd still like more comments, of course. The more people disagree with certain predictions, the more likely I will make major changes to those races. I'd also like to get views from across the spectrum, since taking into consideration many different view points will insure the least biased predictions.

Here are my current numbers: 
Riding
PC
WRP
Lib
NDP
Oth
Winning candidate
Airdrie
30
54
6
8
2
Rob Anderson
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater
39
47
4
10
-
Travis Olson
Banff-Cochrane
12
47
26
17
-
Tom Copithorne
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock
37
49
5
6
2
Link Byfield
Battle River-Wainwright
45
49
4
3
1
Dave Nelson
Bonnyville-Cold Lake
41
51
4
6
-
Roy Doonanco
Calgary-Acadia
37
47
7
7
2
Richard Jones
Calgary-Bow
32
51
8
7
2
Tim Dyck
Calgary-Buffalo
22
41
27
8
2
Mike Blanchard
Calgary-Cross
36
45
6
11
2
Hardyal Mann
Calgary-Currie
24
44
16
8
8
Corrie Adolph
Calgary-East
32
48
9
9
1
Jesse Minhas
Calgary-Elbow
37
42
11
7
3
James Cole
Calgary-Fish Creek
36
50
7
7
-
Heather Forsyth
Calgary-Foothills
32
48
14
6
-
Dustin Nau
Calgary-Fort
34
48
11
9
2
Jeevan Mangat
Calgary-Glenmore
24
58
11
7
-
Paul Hinman
Calgary-Greenway
30
54
7
9
-
Ron Leech
Calgary-Hawkwood
25
52
9
8
6
David Yager
Calgary-Hays
35
51
7
7
-
Wayne Anderson
Calgary-Klein
24
49
9
16
2
Jeremy Nixon
Calgary-Lougheed
36
50
7
7
-
John Carpay
Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill
32
51
8
7
2
Roy Alexander
Calgary-McCall
26
46
18
7
3
Grant Galpin
Calgary-Mountain View
14
41
34
9
2
Shane McAllister
Calgary-North West
27
54
8
7
4
Chris Challis
Calgary-Northern Hills
33
51
8
8
-
Prasad Panda
Calgary-Shaw
33
51
7
7
2
Jeff Wilson
Calgary-South East
37
51
6
6
-
Bill Jarvis
Calgary-Varsity
20
46
22
8
4
Rob Solinger
Calgary-West
29
53
8
6
4
Andrew Constantinidis
Cardston-Taber-Warner
12
77
3
8
-
Gary Bikman
Chestermere-Rocky View
34
50
11
5
-
Bruce McAllister
Cypress-Medicine Hat
23
52
15
10
-
Drew Barnes
Drayton Valley-Devon
33
54
5
8
-
Dean Shular
Drumheller-Stettler
29
56
5
9
2
Rick Strankman
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley
22
63
1
14
-
Kelly Hudson
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview
27
29
6
37
1
Deron Bilous
Edmonton-Calder
28
31
7
31
3
Rich Neumann or David Eggen
Edmonton-Castle Downs
39
32
17
10
2
Thomas Lukaszuk
Edmonton Centre
18
31
32
19
-
Laurie Blakeman
Edmonton-Decore
33
33
16
18
-
Janice Sarich or Chris Bataluk
Edmonton-Ellerslie
31
34
14
18
3
Jackie Lovely
Edmonton-Glenora
28
30
17
19
6
Don Koziak
Edmonton-Gold Bar
29
32
16
20
3
Linda Carlson
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood
18
28
5
46
3
Brian Mason
Edmonton-Manning
36
31
11
19
3
Peter Sandhu
Edmonton-McClung
36
31
24
6
3
David Xiao
Edmonton-Meadowlark
20
31
36
11
2
Raj Sherman
Edmonton-Mill Creek
43
34
11
10
2
Gene Zwozdesky
Edmonton-Mill Woods
31
32
16
14
7
Joanne Autio
Edmonton-Riverview
25
32
32
9
2
John Corie or Arif Khan
Edmonton-Rutherford
32
32
22
9
5
Fred Horne or Kyle McLeod
Edmonton-South West
43
38
12
5
2
Matt Jeneroux
Edmonton-Strathcona
16
27
10
45
2
Rachel Notley
Edmonton-Whitemud
46
29
17
5
2
David Hancock
Fort McMurray-Conklin
32
45
14
8
-
Doug Faulkner
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
29
48
15
8
-
Guy Boutilier
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
37
50
3
8
2
Shannon Stubbs
Grande Prairie-Smoky
31
55
4
9
1
Todd Loewen
Grande Prairie-Wapiti
39
45
5
10
1
Ethane Jarvis
Highwood
18
68
5
9
-
Danielle Smith
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
26
53
6
13
2
Kerry Towle
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
35
49
6
10
-
Shayne Saskiw
Lacombe-Ponoka
36
51
4
7
2
Rod Fox
Leduc-Beaumont
31
32
8
7
3
David Stasiewich
Lesser Slave Lake
34
49
9
7
1
Darryl Boisson
Lethbridge-East
18
48
22
12
-
Kent Prestage
Lethbridge-West
20
41
18
19
2
Kevin Kinahan
Little Bow
18
68
4
10
-
Ian Donovan
Livingstone-Macleod
24
55
9
11
1
Pat Stier
Medicine Hat
10
52
26
11
1
Blake Pedersen
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
22
68
2
8
-
Bruce Rowe
Peace River
32
49
5
14
-
Alan Forsyth
Red Deer-North
20
51
14
13
2
Randy Weins
Red Deer-South
18
50
19
11
2
Nathan Stephan
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre
26
57
7
10
-
Joe Anglin
Sherwood Park
35
40
9
7
9
Garnett Genius
Spruce Grove-St. Albert
50
35
9
6
-
Doug Horner
St. Albert
27
46
12
7
8
James Burrows
Stony Plain
32
51
6
7
4
Hal Tagg
Strathcona-Sherwood Park
55
32
7
6
-
Dave Quest
Strathmore-Brooks
35
52
3
9
1
Alex Wychopen
Vermilion-Lloydminster
31
60
3
5
1
Danny Hozack
West Yellowhead
21
43
11
10
15
Stuart Taylor
Wetaskiwin-Camrose
38
50
5
8
1
Trevor Miller
Whitecourt-Ste. Anne
29
61
4
6
-
Maryann Chichak

Changes since my last prediction:
My only changes appear to be in the Edmonton area, since that is where most of the close races seem to be.



Edmonton-Calder: I found some redistributed numbers from the last election, and they show that Edmonton-Calder will be getting less NDP-friendly. This has reduced my NDP numbers in this seat to a tie with the Wildrose Party.

Edmonton Centre: It appears the Liberals are running a strong campaign here, so I've switched this from WRP to Liberal.

Edmonton-Decore and Edmonton-Rutherford: The Tory strength in Edmonton has weakened slightly, meaning these two riding is no longer PC, but are WRP-PC ties in my projection.

Edmonton-Ellerslie, Edmonton-Glenora, Edmonton-Gold Bar, Edmonton-Mill Woods: The slight dip in Tory support in Edmonton has meant that these riding is being have switched from PC to WRP.

Spruce Grove-St. Albert: I have heard from numerous sources that if one PC incumbent wins, it will be Doug Horner. The man is on the right of the party, so why elect the WRP here?

Strathcona-Sherwood Park: This riding is similar to Spruce Grove-St. Albert, in that is located in the Edmonton suburbs. I'm not sure how popular incumbent PC MP Dave Quest is, but he did get a higher percentage of the vote than Horner in the last election.

36 comments:

  1. With the PCs riding low in the polls I keep wondering what will happen between PC and Liberal voters. Will progressive Albertans (perhaps including the NDP) flip to the PCs to stop the Wild Rose in Edmonton? With mounting evidence of PC losses will they flee to more consistent parties on the left like the NDP? When parties collapse their voters do strange things.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am a progressive voting (Edmonton South-West) for the conservative to stop the Wildrose candidate here.

      I was wondering if there has been any movement in my riding based on the homophobic blog exposé? I find the closeness in numbers in the riding very disconcerting given the degree of religious fanaticism the Wildrose candidate exhibits - surely people know about that and are not for it.

      Delete
    2. Hmmm, I read that blog several times. The guy give his personal opinion. I never read where it said "I hate the Gays", although he does make it clear that he does not accept the lifestyle. I guess because I do not sport a pedophilia lifestyle I am a pedophobic religious fanatic? I don't support an illegal narcotic lifestyle, so am I a narcophobia fanatic......or does it sound better if we add narcophobic religious fanatic? Since when do we have to blinded accept everyone's opinion or lifestyle? What no one can have an opinion. Don't forget that blog post was NOT on the WRA party blog, it was his own personal blog.

      I guess it is better to vote in a dictator PC government whom sold us out to Big Oil, targeting the law abiding people who would like to have a glass of wine when they go out for a meal and are spending us back to debt when oil is at $100 a barrel. Do we want to see all of the cuts back to healthcare and education to get us out of debt? Vote PC!!! No debate, No input, PC way or the highway! Sounds like a GREAT party!! No group religious or gay is getting persecuted here....don't punish my kids education or healthcare for a lifestyle choice....think about it.

      Delete
    3. There is no such thing as a lifestyle choice when discussing homosexuality. It is ignorant to compare criminal activity to homosexuality. Masking your hate of someone by saying you want to 'love' them into correcting their 'behaviour' because of your religious beliefs is not fooling anyone. He is a hater. And he is a person who would have put his beliefs ahead of the safety of children. That is inexcusable.

      He would have been an elected official in committees making decisions on policy based on his opinions which are antiquated and which do not reflect the average person's feelings on the matter.

      Delete
  2. Hey Earl,

    I am campaigning in Glenora and Wildrose isn't going to win. They are running a weak campaign here. They have put out one generic central leaflet and put up some signs but that's it. This race is NDP vs PC.

    Also Edmonton-Calder the Wildrose is weak as well. This is another PC vs NDP race. Considering how much is going into it and we just lost it by a small margin.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hey Yardy. Good to hear from you. I'm getting a good feeling of how the NDP and Liberal campaigns are going, but I don't know where all the WRP hot spots are, so I thank you for that information. I will include it in my final prediction next week.

    ReplyDelete
  4. These poll results scare me. Hopefully they aren't going to prove to me true in the end....

    Vote Lori-Sigurdson for Edmonton-Riverview, NDP! And it's true about Glenora, I've heard from most people the Wild Rose don't stand a chance there. And even in Edmonton-South West the WR candidate is a total joke. So I am curious about these results.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Whatever you do, do not reward the incompetence of the PC's. Vote them all out. If you are right, vote Wild Rose. If you are left, take the NDP or Liberals. The PC's do not deserve your vote. At least the opposition parties don't have the sense of entitlement and arrogance that the PC's have developed over 41 years.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi there Earl. After the problems with the Edm.S-W candidate from WRP, I would think he will lose at least 5-7% of the vote if not more. I also think that in Devon, WRP candidate is not as strong as is projected. McQueen is a former cabinet minister and a bully. She has actually threatened the council and a lot of people. It may be closer than you figure.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Huh?? Latest polls show the liberal voters in Calgary, are jumping to the PCs, and the PC's are ahead in Calgary. Also, there are ridings in Calgary where the Wildrose is extremely weak, and the PC candidate completely all-encompassing on the ground.

    ReplyDelete
  8. oh ya, link to latest poll:
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/albertavotes2012/story/2012/04/15/albertavotes2012-roi-poll-tight-election-race.html

    ReplyDelete
  9. Hi, I mentioned the CBC poll in my post, and why I didn't factor it in my prediction. The poll seems to be an outlier unless other polls confirm those numbers.

    ReplyDelete
  10. There is a new Forum poll out showing WR ahead by 7% over the PCs, and with WR having a comfortable majority over PCs in Calgary, and vice versa for Edmonton. WR way ahead outside those two cities.

    I was also robo called this evening for another poll, so no doubt another one will be coming out in the next day or so.

    ReplyDelete
  11. There will be many polls to come, for sure. I saw that FR poll, and just as I predicted: it contradicts that CBC poll. What we do see is the race is tightening a bit, however I doubt the PCs will catch up.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi earl. I work for the Edmonton rutherford candidate.

    I've been door knocking with kyle for 2 months now and I'll tell you for sure that if the PC won it would be a complete shock to everyone. Doing a poll with kyle I would have 5+ wildrose supporters for every non-supporter and maybe 1 out of 20 actually confirmed PC voters. I will admit there are alot of undecided in the area so we'll see how that goes. 90% of the undecided are old PC voters that are looking for a change.

    We've also found that Fred Horne and Rick Miller are using old data from years ago to do their sign drops. We've had countless people say they never requested a PC sign on their yard but its still sitting there. They are trying to confuse the riding by falsely advertising massive support for the PC. A lot of neighbors don't want a WR sign because of all the PC signs in the area and they are shocked to learn the truth.

    Threehundredeight.com is polling us over 9% behind but I have no idea where they get their data cause its not what were seeing at the doors.

    Note: For anyone in the Edmonton area, the A&B sound building covered in Wildrose signs is Kyles office, feel free to stop by. :)

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hi Earl,

    Enjoy the blog. I was wondering if you had any thoughts concerning all the controversial things said by a couple of Wildrose candidates in the last couple of days and if you think that this will swing the votes back to the PC's.

    Personally, I don't think it will, But I may be blinded by my own bias.

    Thanks,

    Rocky

    ReplyDelete
  14. @ Anonymous: Thanks for your information. I think your comments are the first indication of a winning WRP campaign in Edmonton, as most people are telling me that they're losing in other ridings. 308.com uses a uniform provincial swing, so they're going to miss the local nuances. I'm counting on that to get a more accurate prediction!

    @ Rocky: Remember, this is Alberta. People there tend to be social conservatives, so it's only going to hurt the WRP in a few urban areas. I don't think it will affect the outcome of the election as it stands now (WRP majority). But, only polling can tell for sure.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I am in Edmonton south and I sure am swiching my vote back to the PC's after all these ridiculous far right wing social statements by the WR. At least they have revealed themselves before the vote! I am voting PC to give Alison Redford a chance to show the real change. I am starting to see that the "old boys club" is really the wildrose. Many of my friends are disillusioned as well and swinging back to the PC. Why isn't anyone polling us? This could be a real suprise.

    ReplyDelete
  16. I am definitely one of the left agonizing over whether to vote PC to try to avoid a WR government. I'm in Calgary Hawkwood and normally vote NDP provincially and nationally. If my riding is going to be close I would likely (unhappily) vote PC but if WR is going to sweep it anyway I would rather have my vote count towards the NDP popular vote!

    ReplyDelete
  17. Earl - I think relentless pressure on the "controversial" WR candidate statements from Edmonton will push strategic left-wing votes to save some PC seats. I think numbers will come out more like 55 WR, 21 PC, 7 LIB and the rest between ND and AP. WR had a shot at 70's territory until this week.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Polls are starting to show the PCs coming back in Calgary, but that's yet to be the case in Edmonton. But, I wouldn't be surprised if it does. But, yeah, I agree the WRP probably wont be winning 70 seats at this point. And the Alberta Party wont win any seats I think. If they were included in the debate, they might've had a shot at West Yellowhead.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Predictions of Wildrose majority starting to hit the mainstream press - see this from Calgary Herald. Seems we are heading that way, but with some caveats.

    http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Alberta%20election%20pollster%20Janet%20Brown%20predicts%20Danielle%20Smith%20Wildrose%20majority%20of%2050%20to%2060%20seats%20over%20Alison%20Redford%20Progressive%20Conservatives/6483224/story.html

    ReplyDelete
  20. Earl, I am starting to think the PCs are going to have a very tough time getting much over 33%. In the last 24 hours or so the news cycle has started to turn against them going into the last weekend of the campaign. The Gary Mar story has resurfaced, a PC candidate made some inappropriate remarks, Preston Manning has all but endorsed WR, and an expert pollster had predicted a WR majority (all of this has been in the Herald). I wouldn't bet my life on on a WR majority, but the PCs are facing some pretty strong headwinds.

    ReplyDelete
  21. I wish intrade did Canadian politics. It would be interesting to see what the WRP odds of winning are. Probably around 90%.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I live in Edmonton-Calder and its NDP orange signs all over. This riding will be won by the NDP. I take my dog on a 4km walk around my neighbourhood every day, and I have only seen 1 Wild Rose sign, and dozens of NDP, with the odd PC sign.

    ReplyDelete
  23. New CTV poll has wildrose at 41%, pc at 33%, ndp and libs at 11% each. Race seems to have settled down over last week.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Yes, I realize I'm wrong about Edmonton-Calder. Anyways, that CTV poll confirms the race is tightening up in Calgary. I look forward to crunching the numbers there to see what comes up. Looks like Redford will be keeping her seat, I'd say.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Hi Earl,

    Thanks for the blog - really interesting read.

    I am a progressive voting (Edmonton South-West) for the conservative to stop the Wildrose candidate here.

    I was wondering if there has been any movement in my riding based on the homophobic blog exposé? I find the closeness in numbers in the riding very disconcerting given the degree of religious fanaticism the Wildrose candidate exhibits - surely people know about that and are not for it.

    Called the PC riding office to see if they have any polling info - will let you know if they call back and what they say.

    ReplyDelete
  26. That would be great. It appears from what people have been telling me that the PCs are ahead in Edm SW, due to those comments and not a very well run campaign by the WRP there. So, expect my next projection to have the Tories with a safe lead there. One of my assumptions for the strong numbers I have for the WRP there is the fact that it is an open seat- and very suburban. But the redistributed numbers show the Tories did very well there last time, but on the backs of strong candidates in neighbouring ridings that it was carved out of.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Hi Earl,

    I need to get my political "crack" fix.

    I was wondering when you are going to be putting up a new projection.

    Thanks,

    Rocky

    ReplyDelete
  28. I'll be doing my final projection on Sunday, so you're going to have to wait ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  29. Thanks, I guess I will have to do that. Enjoy the blog. Keep up the good work.

    ReplyDelete
  30. I'm very interested to see how things will play out here in Fort McMurray. A very well-known and respected municipal councillor running for the PC's in Fort McMurray-Conklin against a former mayor for the WRP and the deputy mayor and long-time businessman running for the PC's in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo against Boutillier. Boutillier isn't running in my riding but he comes across as rather arrogant to me. Like the PC Party he's well past his expiry date and needs to go. I would love to see Boutillier get creamed in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo and the WRP take the other riding so that at least the city has a voice at the table as it appears the PC's are about to get schooled on Monday.

    ReplyDelete
  31. Ezra Levant is predicting 50 to 60 seats for Wildrose, based in part on the idea that WR voters are much more enthusiastic than PC voters. This is supported by the latest Abacus poll data. I personally think the over/under for WR is about 48. Tough to see how the PCs can win at this stage.

    ReplyDelete
  32. New Forum poll out showing WR has 9 point lead and will win 60 plus seats.

    ReplyDelete
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