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Tuesday, April 10, 2012

2012 Alberta election prediction (April 10)

Projected map.
There are now less than two weeks until the April 23 Alberta election. Not much has changed in the polls since my last projection on March 31. The upstart Wildrose Party remains poised to win a majority government.

Most of the polls released over the last week show the Wildrose Party in the low 40s, the Tories around 30%, and the NDP and Liberals tied in the low teens. This is about where the parties stood for my last projection.

While the Wildrose Party had the momentum during the first week of the campaign, they seem to have hit a plateau, and the election appears to be on cruise control. The WRP has increased their support in rural Alberta, but it appears to have come to the expense of the party in Edmonton, the only part of the province where they are behind the Tories.

Here are my riding by riding projections:

Riding PC WRP Lib NDP Oth Winning candidate
Airdrie 24 65 4 7 - Rob Anderson
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater
39
46 5 10 - Travis Olson
Banff-Cochrane
16
47 26 13 - Tom Copithorne
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock
37
47 7 6 2 Link Byfield
Battle River-Wainwright
45
47 6 3 1 Dave Nelson
Bonnyville-Cold Lake
42
50 4 6 - Roy Doonanco
Calgary-Acadia
30
55 6 9 - Richard Jones
Calgary-Bow
28
49 15 7 1 Tim Dyck
Calgary-Buffalo
17
43 31 8 1 Mike Blanchard
Calgary-Cross
37
45 5 11 2 Hardyal Mann
Calgary-Currie
18
42 25 8 7 Corrie Adolph
Calgary-East
39
45 9 9 - Jesse Minhas
Calgary-Elbow
28
44 18 6 4 James Cole
Calgary-Fish Creek
29
54 10 7 - Heather Forsyth
Calgary-Foothills
30
46 16 6 - Dustin Nau
Calgary-Fort
31
44 4 18 1 Jeevan Mangat
Calgary-Glenmore
13
58 21 8 - Paul Hinman
Calgary-Greenway
27
53 10 10 - Ron Leech
Calgary-Hawkwood
21
52 17 8 2 David Yager
Calgary-Hays
31
54 8 7 - Wayne Anderson
Calgary-Klein
27
49 10 12 2 Jeremy Nixon
Calgary-Lougheed
35
50 9 6 - John Carpay
Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill
30
48 14 7 1 Roy Alexander
Calgary-McCall
21
43 29 7 - Grant Galpin
Calgary-Mountain View
8
44 38 9 1 Shane McAllister
Calgary-North West
23
58 10 7 2 Chris Challis
Calgary-Northern Hills
31
51 11 7 - Prasad Panda
Calgary-Shaw
34
52 6 7 1 Jeff Wilson
Calgary-South East
33
54 6 7 - Bill Jarvis
Calgary-Varsity
18
47 26 7 2 Rob Solinger
Calgary-West
25
56 11 7 1 Andrew Constantinidis
Cardston-Taber-Warner
8
87 2 3 - Gary Bikman
Chestermere-Rocky View
27
61 8 4 - Bruce McAllister
Cypress-Medicine Hat
27
52 15 6 - Drew Barnes
Drayton Valley-Devon
32
51 9 8 - Dean Shular
Drumheller-Stettler
33
56 6 5 - Rick Strankman
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley
21
63 2 14 - Kelly Hudson
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview
30
29
3 36 2 Deron Bilous
Edmonton-Calder
27
33
2 39 - David Eggen
Edmonton-Castle Downs 42
28
17
10
3 Thomas Lukaszuk
Edmonton Centre
22
29
28
20
- Barb de Groot
Edmonton-Decore 37
32
18
13
- Janice Sarich
Edmonton-Ellerslie 35
31
13
18
3 Naresh Bhardwaj
Edmonton-Glenora 31
28
19
15
7 Heather Klimchuk
Edmonton-Gold Bar 29
28
23
16
4 David Dorward
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood
20
22
3
51 4 Brian Mason
Edmonton-Manning 37
29
10
20
4 Peter Sandhu
Edmonton-McClung 34
26
29
8
3 David Xiao
Edmonton-Meadowlark
24
29
35
9
3 Raj Sherman
Edmonton-Mill Creek 43
31
12
14
- Gene Zwozdesky
Edmonton-Mill Woods 33
30
17
14
6 Sohail Quadri
Edmonton-Riverview
28
29
31
9
3 Arif Khan
Edmonton-Rutherford 35
29
22
10
4 Fred Horne
Edmonton-South West 41
34
19
6
- Matt Jeneroux
Edmonton-Strathcona
17
28
4
51 - Rachel Notley
Edmonton-Whitemud 49
28
15
5
3 David Hancock
Fort McMurray-Conklin
31
42
18
8
- Doug Faulkner
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
28
45
19
8
- Guy Boutilier
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
39
48
4
8
1 Shannon Stubbs
Grande Prairie-Smoky
34
52
5
9
- Todd Loewen
Grande Prairie-Wapiti
38
43
9
10
- Ethane Jarvis
Highwood
22
68
5
5
- Danielle Smith
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
30
54
6
9
1 Kerry Towle
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
34
46
10
10
- Shayne Saskiw
Lacombe-Ponoka
37
48
8
7
- Rod Fox
Leduc-Beaumont
35
47
9
7
2 David Stasiewich
Lesser Slave Lake
33
47
13
7
- Darryl Boisson
Lethbridge-East
13
48
31
8
- Kent Prestage
Lethbridge-West
12
49
27
12
- Kevin Kinahan
Little Bow
22
68
4
6
- Ian Donovan
Livingstone-Macleod
28
55
9
7
1 Pat Stier
Medicine Hat
14
52
26
7
1
Blake Pedersen
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
26
68
2
4
-
Bruce Rowe
Peace River
31
48
7
14
-
Alan Forsyth
Red Deer-North
24
51
14
9
2
Randy Weins
Red Deer-South
22
50
19
7
2
Nathan Stephan
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre
30
57
7
6
-
Joe Anglin
Sherwood Park
31
40
18
5
6
Garnett Genius
Spruce Grove-St. Albert
31
37
21
5
-
Travis Hughes
St. Albert
24
42
28
5
1
James Burrows
Stony Plain
32
51
11
6
-
Hal Tagg
Strathcona-Sherwood Park
38
42
15
5
-
Paul Nemetchek
Strathmore-Brooks
39
53
3
5
-
Alex Wychopen
Vermilion-Lloydminster
34
57
4
5
-
Danny Hozack
West Yellowhead
21
40
17
12
10
Stuart Taylor
Wetaskiwin-Camrose
38
49
6
8
1
Trevor Miller
Whitecourt-Ste. Anne
29
60
5
6

Maryann Chichak

Summary
 I now have the Wildrose Party projected to win 69 seats in the 87 seat Alberta legislature. This up two from my last projection. The Tories are projected to form official opposition with 12 seats, up 3 from my last projection. The NDP is projected to win 4, and the Liberals 2 (down 2). The change does not add up as I projected 3 ties last time.

The Wildrose Party increases came from rural Alberta, while the Tories gained from the WRP and the Liberals in Edmonton.

Methodology
For all of you who are not familiar with my projections, I base my predictions on not only poll numbers, but "qualitative" data as well- that is from what I read about local campaigns, and what people tell me. So, if you have any disagreements with any of  my predictions, please let me know, and I can adjust my figures next time.  The point of my predictions is to be as accurate as possible.

27 comments:

  1. Cripes!!! Why can't Alberta experiment with democracy for a change? A scant majority with a real opposition would make a nice change!

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  2. Alberta is... different. However, there was a Leger poll released yesterday showing the PCs and WRP at neck and neck. I was conducted over Easter weekend though, so I question its reliability.

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  3. As someone working on a Wildrose campaign on the ground. We haven't seen any sign out momentum is shifting back to the PC's. Lawn sign orders are still through the roof and were still getting tremendous response at the doors. A lot of people who are still on the fence this week have currently stated they're waiting for the debate. I believe that long weekend poll is an outlier and nothing more.

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  4. Well, the poll didn't show much of a change in Calgary, so if you're in Cowtown, then you're probably not seeing much change. The poll showed a large shift in rural Alberta. But as I said, it's probably a junk poll.

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  5. I am not sure how credible theses riding projections can be when in Calgary-Elbow you allocate 18% to a Liberal party candidate that doesn't exist.

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  6. Apology and correction. There is apparently a Liberal candidate in Calgary-Elbow, just not a visible one.

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  7. Hi, thanks for your input. The reason it's so high is the Liberals have done well there in the past, including only losing by 400 votes there last time. Now, if there's no campaign there, I will have to adjust my figures for next time.

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  8. The Campaign Reseach poll shows a little movement to the PC's all at the expense of the Liberals and NDP. The Liberal party could get really squeezed perhaps out of existence. Sherman will have to have a great debate, to stop the right of his party heading to the PC's and the left from going to the NDP. My guess is this is the last election in Alberta where the Liberal party will even be a factor. This is already the case in Manitoba and Saskatchewan where there is little to no provincial liberal party.

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  9. Sherman had a poor debate performance, so maybe this will be the beginning of the end for the Alberta Liberals. Alberta is probably the only province where I would support a Liberal-NDP merger, just because of the politics of the province, and how left wing the Alberta Liberals are now.

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  10. Looking at the 1967 Alberta election I see a lot of parallels with 2012. I find the popular vote % for '67 interesting because they're very similar to what is being polled now.

    1967 final vote numbers rounded up

    Social Credit had 45% with 55 of 65 seats while PC's had 26% for 6 seats. Libs had 11% with 3 seats and NDP had 15% with no seats.

    Obviously PC's had upward momentum in 1967, but its the last election they polled so low and substitute Social Credit for Wildrose in that mid 40's range. The Liberal and NDP numbers are also remarkably similar to this election.

    It honestly wouldn't surprise me to see a similar result.

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  11. Your prediction for Calgary glenmore seems to be way out of sink. The pc candidate will get at least thirty five percent of the vote. Nominal liberal candidate versus large budget conservative campaign. She will do well in Chinook park, lakeview, kelvin grove and eagle Ridge. Hinman will win but this will be more competitive than you think. This is alison Redford home turf where she got over fifteen hundred votes in leadership convention. Also includes area where gary market went to high school school and grew up.

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  12. Calgary mountainview: the liberals are winning this one, demographics of this riding and well recognized incumbent is causing a movement of progressive voters to Swann. The hospital population in this area favors the incumbent. Look at the last lawn signs in people's yards. Not Wildrose turf.

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  13. Calgary varsity: this is going to a three horse race as the libs, pc and wildrose all have strong campaigns. Two term liberal seat and organized campaign. Upper middle class neighborhoods, University and hospital nearby will cause this to be an interesting race to the end. The wildrose campaign seems to be faltering here. Not sure why but they seem to be not engaging with voters here or are simply being outworked and out spent.

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  14. Calgary acadia: I am not partial to the pc candidate but he is an incumbent who won by a large percentage last time. Although, this will be a very close vote the denis campaign seems better organized and financed than the wildrose campaign. This vote will be very close on election day. The pc campaign will get agood turn out with a great get out vote effort. This will go late into thenight on election day.

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  15. Calgary fort:this is an interesting race as former wildrose candidate is running for liberals, weak conservative incumbent. I agree with the wildrose percentage but the liberals seem to be running at a lot stronger than at four percent. I would suggest that the liberals will get at least twenty percent of the vote here. Your ndp vote is way overstated. They are simply not that strong.

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  16. Thanks for your input, I will factor in your analysis for my next prediction :)

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  17. I'm not from Alberta, but I follow all provincial elections in Canada closely. I know that most Albertans are more right-wing than the rest of the country, so no surprise that the PCs and the Wildrose are on top. While I vote Liberal federally, I will never vote Liberal in Alberta -- I would go with the PCs in this election if I could vote. I personally think the Wildrose is scary and could cause more problems than solving them with their policies. I think some right-of-centre stuff is good, hence my support for federal Liberals (especially under Martin) and the PCs in Alberta, but I do not support the notion that the Wildrose wants Alberta to be separate from everyone else in the country. Even though we have many differences, we need to come together and use Alberta's strengths and combine them with the strengths with the rest of the provinces to make a united country.

    BTW, I am also an avid curler, so I tend to look to Alberta for assistance when necessary, lol.

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  18. Your response is interesting. A quick comment on alberta politics is that Calgary and Edmonton are not as right wing as you would think. The victory of nenshi as mayor supports this view. What I would call the right wing aka as
    the original reform party represents only about thirty percent of the electorate but they are very well organized and tend to be political. Fundamental liberals represent about twenty five to thirty percent but are frequently split and are very disorganized. The other forty to forty five percent are centrist but have voted pc or conservative for years. The majority of the population in the middle cannot distinguish right from left. This is the problem with alison Redford she is left wing in view point but running as a pc. The right wing conservatives which were previously pc have left to era leaving her with only moderate. A large number of liberals have moved to her but I think some detailed analysis will show that a substantial portion have moved to Wildrose as well. I would suggest Redford has lost fifty percent of those who voted pc last time but has gained a large portion of the liberal vote in calgary and possibly Edmonton. If you look at an area like calgary glenmore the liberals have gotten 5000-7500 votes and lost repeatedly since 1989. The pc have gotten. 7000-9000. If the Wildrose gets 44 percent of the vote here they could lose. The liberal and ndp are invisible. This scenario probably will play out to some degree in all the Ridings in calgary south of glenmore trail to the city limits.

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  19. As a side note, I am also a right of center liberal. I prefer the term fiscally responsible to fiscal conservative. I think that martin had the right message as did lawrence decode provincially in the late 1980's and 1993 provincial election. The reason many fiscally responsible liberals may be moving to the Wildrose is that they have been wanting change for 41 years. There are many people who just want to throw the pc out of office. It is not a right wing thing it is an anger thing at their sense of entitlement. Redford and the pc are chameleon in nature. They have been all things to all people for to long and have no firm ideology. They have only found a center left position since they discovered they were losing.

    I am also a curler.

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  20. The promise of a couple hundred bucks is assuredly not enough to buy - I mean, win my vote. Thankfully I live in Edmonton-Calder, and there are many people in my riding who agree.

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  21. What most commenters here fail to realize is that the desire for freedom is strong in most people and is very strong in Alberta. This and this alone is what is propelling the WRP to power: an intrinsic desire for less government. Less government equals greater liberty. Think about it: more government equals more intrusion equals less liberty. The WRP, unlike the conservatives, have embraced this. All the other parties are puely about larger government which equals less liberty wich equals less freedom.

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  22. Of course, Alberta is not as right wing as people think! The 3 progressive parties - Liberal, NDP, and Greens won a full 40% of votes in the 2008 election, although that gave them only 13% of the seats.

    By the way, I disagree that Raj performed "poorly" on the debate. There were a lot of people who were surprised at how strong he came across, and one Herald editorial crowned him the winner. Only to say that everything is relative, and subjective. Particularly in this province where lies are often seen by voters as facts, and facts taken for lies. People in this province need to learn how to read and how to think critically. RIght now, they're dismal at it.

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  23. Raj had a lot of good things to say, but he didn't articulate his points very well. Oh well.

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  24. Im sorry why did you presume that Albertans take lies for facts and facts for lies?

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  25. You sure missed this one! I wish your predictions had been accurate!

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  26. A little off eh!!!

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  27. Merci
    aswqergh
    Probably one of the most talked about stores in Paris, Isabel Marant Heels

    ReplyDelete