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Friday, September 2, 2011

Ontario election 2011 prediction (September 2)


Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

As the writs are about to be dropped in Ontario, it is time to do my final prediction before the official campaign begins. A lot has happened since my last prediction 2 weeks ago, as the campaign heats up. The biggest event of this period has to have been the death of federal NDP leader Jack Layton. Some are attributing his death to a sympathy bump for not only the federal party (which in a recent poll of federal voters, is now tied with the Conservatives), but also for the provincial party.

My last projection showed the NDP at its lowest level since March. However, two recent polls have shown a rebound for the party. The two polls were conducted earlier this week by Forum Research and Angus Reid. Forum Research has the NDP at 26% while Angus Reid has the party at 24%. The party is still in third place in both polls, but the race between the three parties is beginning to narrow. Angus Reid has the Tories at 38%, the Liberals at 31% and the Greens at 6%. Forum Research has the Tories a bit lower at 35%, the Liberals are at 30% and the Greens at 7%. Both polls confirm that the Tories are polling lower than they were earlier in the summer when they were in the low 40s, meaning a minority government is becoming more and more likely.

I am basing this projection on an average of both polls, but rounding up to favour the Forum Research poll which polled twice as many people as Angus Reid. Future projections will be using averages as well. I hope to come out with a new Ontario projection. However, I will be busy with other work during the campaign, which could limit my posts.

Methodology/disclaimer
Once again, I should mention how I am coming to my conclusions,


I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.

Seat by seat projection

Riding Lib PC NDP Grn Projected winner
Ajax—Pickering 41 39 14 6 Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin
32
18 44 4 Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
31
43
18
8 Donna Skelly
Barrie
21
49
20
9 Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York
18
19
52 11 Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton 37
29
28
6 Kuldip Kular
Brampton West
38
39
16
7 Ben Shenouda
Brampton—Springdale 38
37
19
6 Linda Jeffrey
Brant 37
34
22
6 Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
21
49
17
13 Bill Walker
Burlington
25
48
19
8 Jane McKenna
Cambridge
20
47
25
8 Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills
30
49
14
7 Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex
24
46
25
5 Rick Nicholls
Davenport
29
12
53 6 Jonah Schein
Don Valley East 39
31
24
6 Michael Coteau
Don Valley West 44
39
10
7 Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon
20
50
12
18 Sylvia Jones
Durham
23
49
20
8 John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence 47
37
10
6 Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London
22
49
23
6 Jeff Yurek
Essex
19
40
35
6 Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre 44
37
14
5 Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North 47
26
23
4 Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 37 37
19
7 Laurel Broten or Simon Nyilassy
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell 44
37
14
5 Grant Crack
Guelph 42
29
16
13 Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk
20
61
16
3 Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
33
47
14
6 Laurie Scott
Halton
29
48
16
7 Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre
20
19
52 9 Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
23
29
43 5 Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain
28
28
40 4 Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce
35
37
22
6 Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River
26
33
40 2 Sarah Campbell
Kingston and the Islands 41
30
22
7 John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre 38
33
21
7 John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga
33
42
19
6 Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo
26
47
19
8 Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
35
39
19
7 Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
29
45
20
6 Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville
21
57
16
6 Steve Clark
London North Centre 37
29
24
10 Deb Matthews
London West 40
32
19
9 Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe 33
30
32
5 Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville 43
32
21
4 Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville 42
35
18
5 Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South 41 41
12
6 Charles Sousa or Geoff Janoscik
Mississauga—Brampton South 40
38
17
5 Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale
38
39
16
6 David Brown
Mississauga—Streetsville 42
37
15
6 Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton
28
50
15
7 Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora
30
48
14
8 Frank Klees
Niagara Falls 36 36
18
10 Kim Craitor or George Lepp
Niagara West—Glanbrook
17
57
20
6 Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt
24
20
53 3 France Gelinas
Nipissing
34
46
17
3 Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West
34
37
20
9 Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham
34
44
16
6 Farid Wassef
Oakville 40
40
13
7 Kevin Flynn or Larry Scott
Oshawa
13
44
37
6 Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre
30
21
41 8 Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South 42
33
18
7 Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean
38
39
18
5 Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans 42
39
13
6 Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier 43
23
26
8 Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford
19
53
20
8 Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park
24
15
53 8 Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka
15
51
23
11 Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington
38
40
15
7 Randy Pettapiece
Peterborough 36
31
25
8 Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East 41
34
18
7 Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings
32
39
22
5 Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
17
67
13
3 John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill 39
38
16
7 Reza Moridi
St. Catharines 39
35
20
6 Jim Bradley
St. Paul's 43
30
21
6 Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton
20
48
29
5 Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie 46
18
31
3 David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre 38
31
28
4 Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest 34
25
34 7 Lorenzo Berardinetti or Bruce Budd
Scarborough—Agincourt 49
29
19
3 Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood 39
31
26
4 Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River 51
22
24
3 Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North
20
54
17
9 Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey
18
55
15
12 Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
24
54
17
5 Jim McDonnell
Sudbury 45
16
35
4 Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill
32
53
11
4 Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
27
25
45 3 Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North
37
13
45 5 Steve Mantis
Timikaming—Cochrane
29
20
49 2 John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay
24
24
49 2 Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre 43
21
28
8 Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth
24
12
54 10 Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina
26
15
49 10 Rasario Marchese
Vaughan 49
34
12
5 Greg Sorbara
Welland
19
33
42 6 Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills
23
56
12
9 Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa
21
50
21
8 Christine Elliott
Willowdale 40
38
16
6 David Zimmer
Windsor West
20
26
50 5 Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh 37
25
32
6 Dwight Duncan
York Centre
39
41
15
5 Michael Mostyn
York South—Weston
36
15
43 6 Paul Ferriera
York West 50
17
29
4 Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe
19
53
18
10 Julia Munro

Seat changes since last projection
Both the Liberals and the Tories lost support in the last two weeks, almost evenly, with the Liberals suffering slightly more. That is why there were not many seats projected to go from the Liberals to the Tories. Most of the projection changes involved seats projected to go to the NDP or to toss up.

The Liberals are down six seats in this projection. Brant, Ottawa—Orleans and Willowdale are all now toss ups with the Tories. Scarborough Southwest is now a toss up with the NDP, while London—Fanshawe is now a three-way toss up. Thunder Bay—Superior North has been shifted from the Liberal column all the way to the NDP's.

The Tories are down two seats in this projection. Both Kenora—Rainy River and Welland are now projected to go NDP, instead of PC.

Finally, 7 former toss up ridings are now projected to go NDP. These are Algoma—Manitoulin, Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, Hamilton Mountain, Ottawa Centre, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Timiskaming—Cochrane and York South—Weston.

Conclusion
The NDP was the big beneficiary of this projection, gaining ten seats from two weeks ago. In addition, they are now tied in Scarborough Southwest and are in toss up range in London—Fanshawe, putting their maximum at 21. This NDP surge has made a minority government situation all but inevitable at this point. The Tories have the projected seat lead, looking at a minimum of 37 seats and a maximum of 56 seats (factoring in 19 of those 20 toss ups). 57 seats would give them a bare majority. The Liberals are outside of being able to win a majority at this point, with their maximum at 51 seats (minimum is at 31).

The Toronto Star has said that this race is now a 3-way race, but the NDP is still in third place at the moment. They need to win some of their distant targets to over come the Liberals to form the official opposition. In addition to their 21 maximum, they would also need to win Windsor—Tecumseh, Sudbury, Scarborough Centre, Oshawa, Essex and Bramalea—Gore—Malton to tie the Liberals at 27 seats. They are projected to be within 10% in those seats.

 

5 comments:

  1. I think you've done a really in-depth job, local factors/candidates are going to matter especially for the NDP. I'm tempted to argue Sault Ste. Marie; the NDP has a strong candidate and federally (i know the riding size is different but 506.com show polls for the city)is a NDP/Tory battle. That would lead me to increase the Tory vote and the NDP vote (which i assume you've done). Also Bramelea-Gore-Malton same idea. But both have liberal incumbants and that could be a huge factor. Now that all the Candidate pages are up we can take deep looks at which marginal ridings might come down to some local personalities. But Keep it up!

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  2. If the NDP can't win the SOO with their surge in the federal election, it may never go NDP again. I could be wrong then!

    But yeah, now that we know who the candidates are, I can make some more adjustments. See what people are saying about them at least.

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  3. could you make a montreal poll by poll map from the federal election?

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  4. I think the NDP will do much better in Scarborough Rouge River than you are projecting. They have a strong candidate who ran well municipally and the NDP won that seat by a much wider margin federally than they did in Scarborough Southwest which you list as a tossup.

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  5. OK, I will definitely have a look at Scarborough-Rouge River. FTR, Shan got 33% of the vote in the eastern half of the riding on City Council. That area of the riding was the best for Rathika as well (very Tamil).

    @ Anonymous, perhaps after these provincial elections happen. I was generously allowed to use that Toronto map, so if someone makes a Montreal map for me, I'll put it up. As for now, you're welcome to go the 506's website for riding by riding poll maps. (link is on the right hand side).

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