EKOS seat forecast for the 2015 federal election

You may be wondering where I've been during the campaign, and why I haven't done any projections or maps. Well, as part of my day job at EKOS Research, I've been working on an internal seat projection model based on our polling numbers, with my colleague Graham Pressey. Now that the campaign is over, I am pleased to be able to release the final product to the public. I am hoping that I have been able build on my successful qualitative and quantitative seat projections in the past by having access to a lot more data than I would have had ever dreamed of in the past. While I am helped my access to this data, the fact that this election has proven to be very volatile, will in no doubt effect the accuracy of my final numbers.

I haven't much time for this post, so I will just summarize my findings. You can read more about the process here.

Our overall numbers show the Liberals winning a strong minority with 151 seats out of the new total seat count of 338 (170 seats are needed for a majority). The forecast shows the Conservatives in opposition at 116 seats, the NDP falling to 54, the Bloc rebounding to 16 seats, and the Greens hanging on to their one seat.

In Atlantic Canada, we have consistently shown the Liberals dominating, to the degree that they may win nearly every seat, including winning every seat in Nova Scotia and PEI. I have the Conservatives winning just two seats (in New Brunswick) and the NDP would just win one seat in the region, in Newfoundland specifically.

Quebec proved to be a nightmare in my attempt to make a decision for each seat. While our numbers show the NDP just barely winning the popular vote in the province, they may just finish in 2^nd place in a lot of seats. The Liberals have the true momentum in the province, and are likely going to win nearly every seat in Montreal, and a number of seats off the island. The Conservatives have made significant gains in the province, and are likely to win almost every seat in the Quebec City area. With the Bloc now polling just as high as they did in 2011, they will make gains based solely on vote splitting between the other three parties. Overall, I have the Liberals winning 27 seats in the province, the NDP 22, the Bloc 16 and the Conservatives 13.

In Ontario, the Liberals have a lot of momentum, and are set to win nearly every seat in the GTA, and in Ottawa. Outside of these regions, they will make gains into territory they have not won in over a decade. The Conservatives will be reduced to a handful of rural seats, and if they are likely a couple of seats in the GTA. The NDP has seen declining poll numbers in the province, and will be left with a caucus of their most popular incumbents, and a couple of new seats if they are lucky. Overall, I have the Liberals winning 79 seats in Ontario, the Conservatives 29 and the NDP 13.

In Manitoba, the Liberals have won back a lot of historical support, and are set to win nearly every seat in Winnipeg. Outside the city though, the Conservatives will likely win every riding, except Churchill, which might be the only NDP seat left in the province.

In Saskatchewan, new riding boundaries will benefit the NDP the most, giving them the chance to win 2 seats. The Conservatives will win the rest of the province, save Regina—Wascana, which the Liberals should retain.

In Alberta, the “orange chinook” has blown away, and I am predicting the status quo, i.e. the Tories winning every seat except Edmonton Strathcona (which will likely stay in NDP hands). That is not to say we won't see any seat changes, as the Liberals are eyeing a couple of seats in Calgary, and the NDP a couple in Edmonton.

In BC, we have seen some last minute shifts to the Conservatives, which should help them retain most of their seats, mostly in the Interior and the Fraser Valley. The Liberals are set to make inroads in the Lower Mainland, winning back their historical vote in Vancouver, Burnaby and on the north shore. The NDP could see some seat losses in the Lower Mainland, which will be offset by some gains on Vancouver Island. The Greens are particularly strong on Vancouver Island, but only strong enough to retain their one seat in Saanich—Gulf Islands.

Finally, in the Territories, they Liberals are set to win back both Yukon and Nunavut, while the race in the Northwest Territories is sure to be a close one, but I expect the NDP should hang on to it.

Riding-by-riding forecasts:

Newfoundland and Labrador	FORECAST
Avalon	LIBERAL
Bonavista—Burin—Trinity	LIBERAL
Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame	LIBERAL
Labrador	LIBERAL
Long Range Mountains	LIBERAL
St. John’s East	NDP
St. John’s South—Mount Pearl	LIBERAL

Prince Edward Island	FORECAST
Cardigan	LIBERAL
Charlottetown	LIBERAL
Egmont	LIBERAL
Malpeque	LIBERAL

Nova Scotia	FORECAST
Cape Breton—Canso	LIBERAL
Central Nova	LIBERAL
Cumberland—Colchester	LIBERAL
Dartmouth—Cole Harbour	LIBERAL
Halifax	LIBERAL
Halifax West	LIBERAL
Kings—Hants	LIBERAL
Sackville—Preston—Chezzetcook	LIBERAL
South Shore—St. Margarets	LIBERAL
Sydney—Victoria	LIBERAL
West Nova	LIBERAL

New Brunswick	FORECAST
Acadie—Bathurst	LIBERAL
Beauséjour	LIBERAL
Fredericton	LIBERAL
Fundy Royal	CONSERVATIVE
Madawaska—Restigouche	LIBERAL
Miramichi—Grand Lake	LIBERAL
Moncton—Riverview—Dieppe	LIBERAL
New Brunswick Southwest	CONSERVATIVE
Saint John—Rothesay	LIBERAL
Tobique—Mactaquac	LIBERAL

Quebec	FORECAST
Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou	NDP
Abitibi—Témiscamingue	NDP
Ahuntsic-Cartierville	LIBERAL
Alfred-Pellan	LIBERAL
Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation	LIBERAL
Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia	LIBERAL
Beauce	CONSERVATIVE
Beauport–Côte-de-Beaupré–Île d'Orléans–Charlevoix	CONSERVATIVE
Beauport—Limoilou	CONSERVATIVE
Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel	BQ
Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis	CONSERVATIVE
Beloeil—Chambly	BQ
Berthier—Maskinongé	NDP
Bourassa	LIBERAL
Brome—Missisquoi	LIBERAL
Brossard—Saint-Lambert	LIBERAL
Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles	CONSERVATIVE
Châteauguay—Lacolle	BQ
Chicoutimi—Le Fjord	NDP
Compton—Stanstead	NDP
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle	LIBERAL
Drummond	NDP
Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine	LIBERAL
Gatineau	LIBERAL
Hochelaga	NDP
Honoré-Mercier	LIBERAL
Hull—Aylmer	LIBERAL
Joliette	BQ
Jonquière	NDP
La Pointe-de-l'Île	NDP
La Prairie	BQ
Lac-Saint-Jean	CONSERVATIVE
Lac-Saint-Louis	LIBERAL
LaSalle–Émard–Verdun	LIBERAL
Laurentides—Labelle	BQ
Laurier—Sainte-Marie	BQ
Laval—Les Îles	LIBERAL
Lévis—Lotbinière	CONSERVATIVE
Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne	BQ
Longueuil—Saint-Hubert	BQ
Louis-Hébert	CONSERVATIVE
Louis-Saint-Laurent	CONSERVATIVE
Manicouagan	NDP
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	LIBERAL
Mégantic—L'Érable	CONSERVATIVE
Mirabel	BQ
Montarville	BQ
Montcalm	BQ
Montmagny—L'Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup	CONSERVATIVE
Mount Royal	LIBERAL
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount	LIBERAL
Outremont	NDP
Papineau	LIBERAL
Pierre-Boucher–Les Patriotes–Verchères	BQ
Pierrefonds—Dollard	LIBERAL
Pontiac	LIBERAL
Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier	CONSERVATIVE
Québec	NDP
Repentigny	BQ
Richmond—Arthabaska	CONSERVATIVE
Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques	NDP
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles	NDP
Rivière-du-Nord	BQ
Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot	NDP
Saint-Jean	NDP
Saint-Laurent	LIBERAL
Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel	LIBERAL
Saint-Maurice—Champlain	LIBERAL
Salaberry—Suroît	BQ
Shefford	NDP
Sherbrooke	NDP
Terrebonne	NDP
Thérèse-De Blainville	NDP
Trois-Rivières	NDP
Vaudreuil—Soulanges	LIBERAL
Ville-Marie–Le Sud-Ouest–Île-des-Sœurs	LIBERAL
Vimy	LIBERAL

Ontario	FORECAST
Ajax	LIBERAL
Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing	NDP
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill	LIBERAL
Barrie—Innisfil	LIBERAL
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte	LIBERAL
Bay of Quinte	LIBERAL
Beaches—East York	LIBERAL
Brampton Centre	LIBERAL
Brampton East	LIBERAL
Brampton North	LIBERAL
Brampton South	LIBERAL
Brampton West	LIBERAL
Brantford–Brant	LIBERAL
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	CONSERVATIVE
Burlington	CONSERVATIVE
Cambridge	LIBERAL
Carleton	CONSERVATIVE
Chatham-Kent—Leamington	CONSERVATIVE
Davenport	LIBERAL
Don Valley East	LIBERAL
Don Valley North	LIBERAL
Don Valley West	LIBERAL
Dufferin—Caledon	CONSERVATIVE
Durham	LIBERAL
Eglinton—Lawrence	LIBERAL
Elgin—Middlesex—London	CONSERVATIVE
Essex	CONSERVATIVE
Etobicoke Centre	LIBERAL
Etobicoke North	LIBERAL
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	LIBERAL
Flamborough—Glanbrook	CONSERVATIVE
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	LIBERAL
Guelph	LIBERAL
Haldimand—Norfolk	CONSERVATIVE
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	CONSERVATIVE
Hamilton Centre	NDP
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	NDP
Hamilton Mountain	LIBERAL
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas	LIBERAL
Hastings—Lennox and Addington	CONSERVATIVE
Humber River–Black Creek	LIBERAL
Huron—Bruce	LIBERAL
Kanata—Carleton	LIBERAL
Kenora	NDP
King—Vaughan	LIBERAL
Kingston and the Islands	LIBERAL
Kitchener Centre	LIBERAL
Kitchener South—Hespeler	LIBERAL
Kitchener—Conestoga	LIBERAL
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	CONSERVATIVE
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston	CONSERVATIVE
Leeds–Grenville–Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes	CONSERVATIVE
London North Centre	LIBERAL
London West	LIBERAL
London—Fanshawe	NDP
Markham—Stouffville	LIBERAL
Markham—Thornhill	LIBERAL
Markham—Unionville	LIBERAL
Milton	CONSERVATIVE
Mississauga Centre	LIBERAL
Mississauga East–Cooksville	LIBERAL
Mississauga—Erin Mills	LIBERAL
Mississauga—Lakeshore	LIBERAL
Mississauga—Malton	LIBERAL
Mississauga—Streetsville	LIBERAL
Nepean	LIBERAL
Newmarket—Aurora	LIBERAL
Niagara Centre	NDP
Niagara Falls	CONSERVATIVE
Niagara West	CONSERVATIVE
Nickel Belt	NDP
Nipissing—Timiskaming	LIBERAL
Northumberland–Peterborough South	LIBERAL
Oakville	LIBERAL
Oakville North—Burlington	LIBERAL
Orléans	LIBERAL
Oshawa	NDP
Ottawa Centre	NDP
Ottawa South	LIBERAL
Ottawa West—Nepean	LIBERAL
Ottawa—Vanier	LIBERAL
Oxford	CONSERVATIVE
Parkdale—High Park	LIBERAL
Parry Sound—Muskoka	CONSERVATIVE
Perth—Wellington	CONSERVATIVE
Peterborough–Kawartha	LIBERAL
Pickering—Uxbridge	LIBERAL
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	CONSERVATIVE
Richmond Hill	LIBERAL
Sarnia—Lambton	CONSERVATIVE
Sault Ste. Marie	LIBERAL
Scarborough Centre	LIBERAL
Scarborough North	LIBERAL
Scarborough Southwest	LIBERAL
Scarborough—Agincourt	LIBERAL
Scarborough—Guildwood	LIBERAL
Scarborough—Rouge Park	LIBERAL
Simcoe North	CONSERVATIVE
Simcoe—Grey	CONSERVATIVE
Spadina—Fort York	LIBERAL
St. Catharines	LIBERAL
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	CONSERVATIVE
Sudbury	LIBERAL
Thornhill	CONSERVATIVE
Thunder Bay—Rainy River	LIBERAL
Thunder Bay—Superior North	LIBERAL
Timmins—James Bay	NDP
Toronto Centre	LIBERAL
Toronto–St. Paul's	LIBERAL
Toronto—Danforth	NDP
University—Rosedale	LIBERAL
Vaughan—Woodbridge	LIBERAL
Waterloo	LIBERAL
Wellington—Halton Hills	CONSERVATIVE
Whitby	LIBERAL
Willowdale	LIBERAL
Windsor West	NDP
Windsor—Tecumseh	NDP
York Centre	CONSERVATIVE
York South—Weston	LIBERAL
York—Simcoe	CONSERVATIVE

Manitoba	FORECAST
Brandon—Souris	CONSERVATIVE
Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley	CONSERVATIVE
Churchill—Keewatinook Aski	NDP
Dauphin—Swan River—Neepawa	CONSERVATIVE
Elmwood—Transcona	CONSERVATIVE
Kildonan—St. Paul	CONSERVATIVE
Portage—Lisgar	CONSERVATIVE
Provencher	CONSERVATIVE
Saint Boniface—Saint Vital	LIBERAL
Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman	CONSERVATIVE
Winnipeg Centre	LIBERAL
Winnipeg North	LIBERAL
Winnipeg South	LIBERAL
Winnipeg South Centre	LIBERAL

Saskatchewan	FORECAST
Battlefords—Lloydminster	CONSERVATIVE
Cypress Hills—Grasslands	CONSERVATIVE
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River	CONSERVATIVE
Carlton Trail–Eagle Creek	CONSERVATIVE
Moose Jaw—Lake Centre—Lanigan	CONSERVATIVE
Prince Albert	CONSERVATIVE
Regina—Lewvan	NDP
Regina—Qu'Appelle	CONSERVATIVE
Regina—Wascana	LIBERAL
Saskatoon—Grasswood	CONSERVATIVE
Saskatoon—University	CONSERVATIVE
Saskatoon West	NDP
Souris—Moose Mountain	CONSERVATIVE
Yorkton—Melville	CONSERVATIVE

Alberta	FORECAST
Banff—Airdrie	CONSERVATIVE
Battle River—Crowfoot	CONSERVATIVE
Bow River	CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Centre	CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Confederation	CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Forest Lawn	CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Heritage	CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Midnapore	CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Nose Hill	CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Rocky Ridge	CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Shepard	CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Signal Hill	CONSERVATIVE
Calgary Skyview	CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton Centre	CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton Griesbach	CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton Manning	CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton Mill Woods	CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton Riverbend	CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton Strathcona	NDP
Edmonton West	CONSERVATIVE
Edmonton—Wetaskiwin	CONSERVATIVE
Foothills	CONSERVATIVE
Fort McMurray—Cold Lake	CONSERVATIVE
Grande Prairie–Mackenzie	CONSERVATIVE
Lakeland	CONSERVATIVE
Lethbridge	CONSERVATIVE
Medicine Hat–Cardston–Warner	CONSERVATIVE
Peace River—Westlock	CONSERVATIVE
Red Deer—Mountain View	CONSERVATIVE
Red Deer–Lacombe	CONSERVATIVE
St. Albert—Edmonton	CONSERVATIVE
Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan	CONSERVATIVE
Sturgeon River–Parkland	CONSERVATIVE
Yellowhead	CONSERVATIVE

British Columbia	FORECAST
Abbotsford	CONSERVATIVE
Burnaby North—Seymour	LIBERAL
Burnaby South	NDP
Cariboo—Prince George	CONSERVATIVE
Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola	CONSERVATIVE
Chilliwack—Hope	CONSERVATIVE
Cloverdale—Langley City	CONSERVATIVE
Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam	CONSERVATIVE
Courtenay—Alberni	NDP
Cowichan—Malahat—Langford	NDP
Delta	CONSERVATIVE
Esquimalt–Saanich–Sooke	NDP
Fleetwood—Port Kells	CONSERVATIVE
Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo	CONSERVATIVE
Kelowna—Lake Country	CONSERVATIVE
Kootenay—Columbia	CONSERVATIVE
Langley—Aldergrove	CONSERVATIVE
Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon	CONSERVATIVE
Nanaimo—Ladysmith	NDP
New Westminster—Burnaby	NDP
North Island–Powell River	NDP
North Okanagan—Shuswap	CONSERVATIVE
North Vancouver	LIBERAL
Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge	CONSERVATIVE
Port Moody—Coquitlam	CONSERVATIVE
Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies	CONSERVATIVE
Richmond Centre	CONSERVATIVE
Saanich—Gulf Islands	GREEN
Skeena—Bulkley Valley	NDP
South Okanagan—West Kootenay	NDP
South Surrey—White Rock	CONSERVATIVE
Steveston—Richmond East	CONSERVATIVE
Surrey Centre	NDP
Surrey—Newton	LIBERAL
Vancouver Centre	LIBERAL
Vancouver East	NDP
Vancouver Granville	LIBERAL
Vancouver Kingsway	NDP
Vancouver Quadra	LIBERAL
Vancouver South	LIBERAL
Victoria	NDP
West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country	LIBERAL

Territories	FORECAST
Yukon	LIBERAL
Northwest Territories	NDP
Nunavut	LIBERAL