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| Final projection map |
Today Quebecers go to the polls to
elect 125 Members of the National Assembly, Quebec's provincial
legislature. After only a year and a half, the Parti Quebecois-led
minority government led by Premier Pauline Marois has sent voters
back to the polls in an effort to win a majority government. When the
writs were dropped a month ago, it looked like the PQ would finally
be getting their elusive majority. However, following a bitter
campaign the Liberals- who were in disarray as a party just a year
ago- have clawed back and now look as if they are the party that is
going to win a majority government.
Over the last three days, since I made
my last projection, there have been a plethora of polls released, and
the general trend in each one shows a last-minute shift by voters
from the faltering PQ to the resurrected CAQ, which is approaching
their vote share from the 2012 election (27%). While no poll has them
that high, the fact the CAQ is approaching their 2012 numbers is a
good sign for that party, which looked like it was going to win just
a handful just days ago.
In the last week, Ipsos, EKOS, Leger,
Forum Research and Angus Reid all released polls which I have used in
my model to make a projection for today's election. I also made some
last minute tweaks to my model to reflect a projected last minute
shift in votes, based on historical last minute shifts in vote
intentions. I focused primarily on the 2008 election, as polls then showed a similar gap between the Liberals and PQ in comparison to polls
for this election. The 2008 election resulted in a Liberal majority,
which polls had accurately suggested in the week prior to the
election. Unusually for Quebec elections, the PQ did better in the
ballot box than polls had predicted while the Liberals did slightly
worse. This is probably due to some would-be Liberal voters staying
home, believing the election to be a foregone conclusion. I predict a
similar scenario in this election, which is why I made a last minute
adjustment in favour of the PQ and against the Liberals. I also
boosted the CAQ's numbers while reduced QS's numbers as CAQ usually
does better in the ballot box than polls predict (plus, polls are
showing that they have the momentum at the moment), while QS does
worse.
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Now, let's take a look at what my model
is suggesting for each region of the province (based on the regions
Leger used in their poll released March 25) and what to look out for
on election night (“ridings to watch” in bold).
Bas-Saint-Luarent / Gaspesie /
Iles-de-la-Madeleine
In this region, my
model shows no change from the 2012 election. The Liberals are
projected to win one seat (Rivere-du-Loup-Temiscouta) while the PQ is
projected to win the other 5 ridings. One riding to watch is
Bonaventure which used to be a Liberal strong-hold but swung
heavily to the PQ in 2012. I haven't caught on to a large swing back
to the Liberals in this region, so it's hard to say if Bonaventure
will go back to the Liberals. Gaspe is
another riding that went Liberal in 2008 but swung heavily against
the Liberals in 2012.
Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean /
Cote-Nord
Polls have suggested the Liberals have made large gains in this
region, which is perhaps one of the most pro-sovereignty parts of the
province. My model shows the Liberals gaining two seats in the
region, Roberval and Dubuc. Roberval is the riding
where Liberal leader Philippe Couillard is running in. The seat was a
bit of a toss-up at the beginning of the election campaign, as it
usually votes for the PQ. However, I am pretty sure Couillard will
easily win Roberval at this point. Dubuc is the main riding to watch
in the region, as it is usually the most Liberal friendly riding in
the Saguenay.
Capitale-Nationale
Quebec's capital district will be one of the more important regions
to watch tonight. Currently the CAQ holds six of the 11 seats in the
region, but the Liberals have been polling well there, and could take
some of those seats away. My model shows the Liberals winning the
ridings of Charlesbourg, Montmorency, Vanier-Les Rivieres and
Portneuf- all seats the CAQ won in 2012, plus the three that
they won in 2012. This leaves the CAQ with two seats in the region-
Chauveau and La Peltrie. If the CAQ surge continues, look closely at
the four ridings my model shows the Liberals winning from them, as
those will be the four seats in play in the region. The PQ currently
holds two ridings in Capitale-Nationale, Taschereau and
Charlevoix-Cote-de-Beaupre. Both of those seats are in play if
the PQ really tanks it, as my model shows only modest leads for the
PQ in both ridings. Chalrevoix-Cote-de-Beaupre will be particularly
interesting to watch, as it is the seat of Premier Pauline Marois.
Mauricie / Centre-du-Quebec
This part of the province will be another one to watch tonight, as
all three of the major parties have a strong presence there. Both the
CAQ and the Liberals won three seats there in 2012, while the PQ won
two. My model shows the PQ hanging on to their two seats of Champlain
and Saint-Maurice. However, my model shows Saint-Maurice being
very close, and the Liberals could edge out a victory there. The
three CAQ-held seats in the region are also going to be ridings to
watch. Of the three seats, I have the CAQ retaining Arthabaska
and Drummond-Bois-Francs, but losing Nicolet-Becancour to
the Liberals, mostly due to a riding poll which came out a week ago
that showed the Liberals unexpectedly ahead there.
Estrie
The six ridings in the Eastern Townships were split three-apiece
between the Liberals and the PQ in 2012. My model shows the Liberals
picking up two of the PQ seats in the region, Saint-Francois and
Sherbrooke. The remaining seat, Johnson looks like will
be a three-way race if my model is to be believed, but the PQ is
still on top. Sherbrooke will be the most interesting race in my
opinion, as it was the seat of former Liberal Premier Jean Charest,
before he lost it in 2012. This election will be a true test as to
whether or not the riding can be called a Liberal seat, or if it was
just a “Jean Charest” seat during the time he was Liberal leader.
Island of Montreal
Montreal has 28 of the province's seats, and is the largest region in
the province in terms of population. However, the island is highly
polarized, between the separatist east end and the rest of the
island. Few ridings ever change hands on the island, and my
projection shows that none will do so this time either. The PQ will
hang on to their 6 seats, Quebec Solidaire will win their two, and
the Liberals will win the rest. There are a few ridings on the island
to watch however, as the QS looks to expand from their base on the
Plateau in Montreal's east end. I have heard that the QS has a
particularly strong campaign in Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques. Other
targets for the QS include left leaning Rosemont and the
riding of Laurier-Dorion where their co-spokersperson Andres
Fontecilla is running. Without much polling information for
any of these seats, it was impossible for me to alter my model to
acurately give the QS a boost in any of these ridings, except
Laurier-Dorion. There, I gave Fontecilla a special “QS
spokesperson” boost, similar to what Amir Khadir and Francoise
David have seen in previous elections in their ridings. This boost
was not enough for my projection model to give the riding to QS
however. Outside of possible QS targets, only one other riding could
possibly change hands, and that is the PQ held riding of Cremazie.
Cremzie is the only riding that resembles a swing riding in
Montreal, as it has gone Liberal in the past, and even voted “no”
in the 1995 referendum. However, my current model shows the PQ
retaining the seat.
Outaouais
The Liberals should easily win all five ridings in the Outaouais. One
riding to watch there will be Papineau. The Liberals narrowly
won the riding in 2012, and it was therefore a prime target for the
PQ. However with the PQ down in the polls, the riding should easily
be retained by the Liberals. A riding poll released recently
confirmed this.
Abitibi-Temiscamingue
The PQ currently holds all four seats in this region, and according
my projection, are set to win all four of them once again. However,
one riding, Abitibi-Est is a toss-up at this point. The riding
is a bit of a bellwether, and did go Liberal in a close race in 2008,
so it's possible it could go Liberal again. The Leger poll from March
25 showed the PQ way ahead in the Abitibi-Temiscamingue region, so
the fate of Abitibi-Est falls on whether or not the Liberals have
been able to close the gap enough to win it.
Chaudiere-Appalaches
This region is by far Quebec's most conservative leaning area, and
because of that, it should be the right of centre CAQ's strongest
region tonight. They may even win the most votes there. Currently,
CAQ holds three of the region's seven ridings,
Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere, Beauce-Nord and Levis. My projection has CAQ
winning those three seats, with the Liberals retaining the remaining
four ridings in the region. According my projection, CAQ has a shot
of winning Bellechasse and Beauce-Sud as well.
Laval
Currently, four of Laval's six ridings are held by the Liberals,
while the remaining two are held by the PQ. My projection shows both
of those PQ ridings, Laval-des-Rapides and Sainte-Rose as
going Liberal as well, giving the Liberals a sweep of the Island.
Laval-des-Rapides in particular will be a riding to watch, as it has
voted for the winning party in every single election since it was
created in 1981. I have no reason to believe that it will buck the
trend in 2014.
Lanaudiere / Laurentides
This region encompasses the north shore suburbs of Montreal, and will
in all likelihood be the most volatile region of the province for
this election. Currently, the PQ holds all but four ridings in this
region, with CAQ holding the rest. Polls have shown a resurgence for
the CAQ in this region in particular, meaning that they could
actually make gains on the four seats they currently hold. My
projection shows CAQ picking up Deux-Montagnes, Repentigny
and Rousseau from the PQ to go with the fours seats they
won in 2012 (Blainville, Groulx, L'Assomption and Saint-Jerome), for
a total seven seats in the area. The Liberals are projected to gain
one seat here, in Argenteuil, a once safe Liberal seat that
the PQ won for the first time ever in a 2012 by-election and retained
in the 2012 general election. Of particular interest in this region
is the riding of Saint-Jerome where media mogul Pierre Karl
Peladeau is running for the PQ in an open seat won by CAQ in 2012.
Many believe that naming the controversial Peladeau's as a candidate
was the beginning of the PQ slide in the polls, and he could be
punished by Saint-Jerome voters. L'Assomption will be another
riding to watch, as it is the riding of CAQ leader Francois Legault.
A recent riding poll suggested he would win his seat, and the recent
surge for the CAQ will in all likelihood cement his victory there.
The real question is how many seats can CAQ win in this region? In
addition to the seven my projection says they'll win, they also have
a strong shot at winning Masson, Mirabel, Terrebonne and
Bertrand.
Monteregie
Monteregie, containing Montreal's south shore suburbs, is another
politically volatile region, but is much more polarized than the
north shore. The PQ holds 12 seats in Monteregie, the Liberals hold
seven seats and the CAQ holds three. Of those three, only in Granby
does my projection show the CAQ retaining. However the other two
ridings the CAQ holds, La Prairie and Montarville will
still be seats to watch, to see if the CAQ can hang on to its support
in Montreal's southern suburbs. In both cases, I have the Liberals
winning, as they were competitive in both seats in 2012. One reason
my projection shows the CAQ not winning many seats on the south shore
compared to the north is the fact that the Liberals are more
competitive in the south, and since they are doing well in the polls,
it's harder for CAQ to compete. Whereas on the north shore, it is
much easier, with the PQ being normally the stronger party, but
suffering in the polls.
In addition to the Liberal pickups from the CAQ, my projection also
shows the Liberals winning Saint-Hyacinthe in a very close
match up. This would be a big win for the Liberals, who haven't held
the seat since 1994. One more riding to watch in the region is La
Piniere where former Liberal-turned-Independent Fatima
Houda-Pepin is running. She is the current incumbent MNA, but left
the Liberals in support of the PQ government's infamous charter of
values. While she didn't join the PQ, the PQ did decide not run a
candidate in the riding. Despite this, independents rarely win seats
in Quebec, and it is unlikely that she will win in such a safe
Liberal seat.
Projected popular vote share per riding (riding backgrounds coloured by 2012 winner).
That's it for my Quebec projections. Enjoy election night. Polls
close at 8pm.
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