Quebec election - final prediction and mini guide

Final projection

It is election day in Quebec, and it is time for my final prediction. If the polls are to believed, this race is going to be a three way between the separatist Parti Quebecois, the governing Liberals and the upstart centre-right Coalition Avenir du Quebec. For the last week or so of the campaign though, it looks like the PQ will win the election. But the question will be if they get a majority, and whether or not the CAQ can surpass the Liberals to form opposition.

For my final prediction, I analyzed the regional breakdowns of the final Leger Poll as well as the mostrecent Forum Research poll I had available to me (they came out with a new one just a few hours ago, which I will have to ignore). I have also looked at a number of individual riding polls, riding history, and a little gut instinct to come up with my numbers. And the conclusion I came to is that the PQ will indeed win a majority government, but by just 2 seats. The Liberals will narrowly get official opposition with 33 seats, which would be their worst showing since 1976. Also, the Liberals are set to get a record low in terms of share of popular vote. Anything less than 33% of the vote will do that, and they have been polling lower than 30% routinely. While the PQ may win the election, they will probably go down in their vote share as well from the previous election, and votes are likely to be siphoned off to the CAQ. 

Here are my riding by riding numbers:

(Ridings projected to be decided by less than 3% of the vote are shaded in grey)

Riding	PLQ	PQ	CAQ	QS	PVQ	ON	Oth	Winning candidate
Abitibi-Est	31	36	24	5	2	2	-	Elizabeth Larouche
Abitibi-Ouest	14	49	26	8	-	3	-	Francois Gendron
Acadie	54	16	18	11	-	1	-	Christine St-Pierre
Anou—Louis-Riel	35	30	22	10	-	2	1	Lise Theriault
Argenteuil	27	37	25	5	4	2	-	Roland Richer
Arthabaska	29	26	34	5	3	2	1	Sylvie Roy
Beauce-Nord	24	7	57	5	3	1	3	Andre Spenard
Beauce-Sud	34	9	51	4	-	1	1	Richard Savoie
Beauharnois	18	43	26	5	3	3	2	Guy Leclair
Bellechasse	30	14	42	6	-	-	3	Christian Levesque
Berthier	11	36	41	6	4	2	0	Francois Benjamin
Bertrand	19	42	27	6	4	2	0	Claude Cousineau
Blainville	16	35	38	5	4	2	0	Daniel Ratthe
Bonaventure	37	45	13	3	-	2	-	Sylvain Roy
Borduas	17	48	20	7	4	3	1	Pierre Duchesne
Bourassa-Sauve	44	22	22	9	2	1	-	Rita de Santis
Bourget	14	43	23	10	5	3	2	Maka Kotto
Brome—Missisquoi	32	26	27	6	4	2	3	Pierre Paradis
Chambly	16	41	30	6	4	2	1	Bertrand St-Arnaud
Champlain	20	35	37	5	-	2	1	Pierre Jackson
Chapleau	41	20	28	5	5	1	0	Marc Carriere
Charlesbourg	32	21	37	6	-	1	3	Denise Trudel
Charlevoix—Cote-de-Beaupre	24	41	27	5	-	2	1	Pauline Marois
Chateauguay	29	34	25	5	4	2	1	Maryse Perreault
Chauveau	24	17	49	6	-	1	3	Gerard Deltell
Chicoutimi	24	44	23	7	-	2	0	Stephane Bedard
Chomedey	50	19	21	5	3	1	1	Guy Ouellette
Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere	21	17	53	6	2	-	1	Marc Picard
Cote-du-Sud	40	18	35	5	-	1	1	Robert Mortin
Cremazie	24	39	19	12	4	2	-	Diane De Courcy
D'Arcy-McGee	75	3	14	7	-	-	1	Lawrence Bergman
Deux-Montagnes	17	40	31	5	5	2	-	Daniel Goyer
Drummond—Bois-Francs	26	31	32	7	-	2	2	Sebastien Schneeberger
Dubuc	24	39	27	6	-	3	1	Jean-Marie Claveau
Duplessis	20	47	24	6	-	2	1	Lorraine Richard
Fabre	30	34	24	5	4	2	1	Francois-Gycelain Rocque
Gaspe	28	52	14	4	-	2	-	Gaetan Lelievre
Gatineau	41	21	23	7	5	2	1	Stephanie Vallee
Gouin	9	36	12	39	4	-	0	Francoise David
Granby	21	25	44	7	-	1	2	Francois Bonnardel
Groulx	20	34	35	5	4	2	0	Helene Daneault
Hochelaga—Maisonneuve	5	48	19	18	5	3	2	Carole Poirier
Hull	34	25	17	12	7	2	3	Maryse Gaudreault
Huntingdon	31	21	36	6	3	1	2	Claire Isabelle
Iberville	26	38	26	4	4	2	-	Marie Bouille
Iles-de-la-Madeleine	39	46	9	4	-	2	-	Jeannie Richard
Jacques-Cartier	64	4	15	7	9	0	1	Geoffrey Kelley
Jean-Lesage	25	28	33	9	-	2	3	Johanne Lapointe
Jeanne-Mance—Viger	58	10	22	8	-	1	1	Filomena Rotiroti
Jean-Talon	40	27	23	7	-	2	1	Yves Bolduc
Johnson	21	33	37	6	-	2	1	Stephane Legault
Joliette	14	39	35	8	-	2	2	Veronique Hivon
Jonquiere	18	46	26	6	-	2	2	Sylvain Gaudreault
Labelle	14	47	26	6	4	3	-	Sylvain Page
Lac-Saint-Jean	15	54	19	5	3	3	1	Alexandre Clouthier
LaFontaine	53	14	18	8	4	1	2	Marc Tanguay
La Peltrie	28	15	49	6	-	1	1	Eric Caire
La Piniere	44	21	22	6	4	1	2	Fatima Houda-Pepin
Laporte	35	32	23	7	-	2	1	Nicole Menard
La Prairie	23	37	27	5	3	2	2	Pierre Langlois
L'Assomption	12	32	44	6	4	2	-	Francois Legault
Laurier—Dorion	29	31	11	19	6	2	2	Badiona Bazin
Laval-des-Rapides	29	36	23	6	4	2	0	Leo Bureau-Blouin
Laviolette	43	21	28	6	-	1	1	Julie Boulet
Levis	29	18	39	7	-	1	6	Christian Dube
Lotbiniere—Frontenac	36	21	38	6	-	-	-	Martin Caron
Louis-Hebert	37	25	29	4	-	2	3	Sam Hamad
Marguerite-Bourgeoys	54	16	19	9	-	1	1	Robert Poeti
Marie-Victorin	13	48	24	7	4	3	1	Bernard Drainville
Marquette	42	21	21	8	7	1	-	Francois Ouimet
Maskinonge	26	27	37	5	1	2	2	Jean Damphousse
Masson	7	46	34	5	4	3	1	Diane Hamelin
Matane—Matapedia	19	55	15	5	2	3	1	Pascal Berube
Megantic	30	33	22	7	-	2	1	Gloriane Blais
Mercier	5	29	15	44	5	2	-	Amir Khadir
Mille-Iles	32	33	23	5	4	2	1	Robert Carrier
Mirabel	11	40	41	5	-	2	1	Sylvie d'Amours
Montarville	25	34	29	5	4	2	1	Monique Richard
Montmorency	26	22	44	4	-	1	3	Michelyne St-Laurent
Mont-Royal	60	7	16	10	6	0	1	Pierre Arcand
Nelligan	57	9	18	7	7	1	1	Yolande James
Nicolet—Becancour	20	23	29	-	-	28	1	Donald Martel
Notre-Dame-de-Grace	53	8	15	7	16	0	1	Kathleen Weil
Orford	36	29	21	8	4	2	0	Pierre Reid
Outremont	40	22	17	18	-	1	2	Raymond Bachand
Papineau	30	34	25	8	-	2	2	Jean-Francois Primeau
Pointe-aux-Trembles	9	53	24	9	-	3	2	Nicole Leger
Pontiac	53	11	21	7	6	1	1	Charlotte L'Ecuyer
Portneuf	26	17	49	6	-	1	1	Jacques Marcotte
Rene-Levesque	12	52	27	6	-	3	-	Marjolain Dufour
Repentigny	17	41	34	6	-	2	-	Scott McKay
Richelieu	21	48	21	7	-	3	-	Elaine Zakaib
Richmond	32	36	21	6	3	2	0	Etienne-Alexis Boucher
Rimouski	21	48	19	7	1	3	1	Irvin Pelletier
Riviere-du-Loup—Temiscouata	32	36	24	4	2	1	1	Michel Lagace
Robert-Baldwin	65	3	17	8	6	0	1	Pierre Marsan
Roberval	27	41	25	5	-	2	-	Denis Trottier
Rosemont	16	46	19	14	-	3	2	Jean-Francois Lisee
Rousseau	16	49	24	7	-	3	1	Nicolas Marceau
Rouyn-Noranda—Temiscamingue	26	31	30	9	2	2	-	Gilles Chapadeau
Saint-Francois	31	41	16	6	3	2	1	Rejean Hebert
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne	33	34	17	13	-	2	1	Sophie Stanke
Saint-Hyacinthe	23	39	26	7	-	2	3	Emilien Pelletier
Saint-Jean	24	39	26	6	-	2	3	Dave Turcotte
Saint-Jerome	13	41	35	5	4	2	-	Gilles Robert
Saint-Laurent	47	13	21	11	6	1	1	Jean-Marc Fournier
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques	12	43	18	22	-	2	3	Daniel Breton
Saint-Maurice	24	41	27	5	-	2	1	Luc Trudel
Sainte-Rose	27	36	27	7	-	2	1	Suzanne Proulx
Sanguinet	14	45	31	5	-	3	2	Alain Therrien
Sherbrooke	36	36	13	9	4	2	1	Serge Cardin
Soulanges	31	30	30	6	-	2	1	Lucie Charlebois
Taillon	17	42	25	7	4	3	2	Marie Malavoy
Taschereau	24	38	20	14	-	2	2	Agnes Maltais
Terrebonne	10	42	35	6	4	3	0	Mathieu Traversy
Trois-Rivieres	30	35	23	8	-	2	2	Djemila Benhabib
Ungava	21	41	27	9	-	2	-	Luc Ferland
Vachon	9	54	20	8	4	4	1	Martine Ouellet
Vanier-Les Rivieres	29	19	43	6	-	1	2	Sylvain Levesque
Vaudreuil	38	27	22	5	5	2	1	Yvon Marcoux
Vercheres	10	49	31	6	-	3	1	Stephane Bergeron
Verdun	32	32	16	11	6	2	1	Henri-Francois Gautrin
Viau	43	21	19	11	5	1	-	Emmanuel Dubourg
Vimont	30	34	26	7	-	2	1	Linda Tousignant
Westmount—Saint-Louis	60	6	16	9	8	0	1	Jacques Chagnon

 

"The Toss ups"

There are a lot of toss up ridings, so I will only touch up on the few that I have figured will have the top two parties within 3%. But, with so many variables and likely scenarios in place, these are really just a  random set of "toss ups":

Blainville

This Montreal suburban riding has a CAQ incumbent, which one might think would automatically make this a likely CAQ win, but the incumbent, Daniel Ratthe was elected as a PQiste and then switched parties. It wasn't the worst decision for Ratthe though, as this riding went for the CAQ's predecessor the ADQ by 9 points in 2007. And 2012 is looking a lot like 2007. And so, I picked Ratthe to win this race.

Champlain

This Mauricie riding went ADQ in 2007 by 14 points. However, the MNA crossed the aisle to join the Liberals and was subsequently defeated by the PQ in 2008. Even without an incumbent, the ADQ did fairly well getting 22% of the vote that election. I expect them to pick this up.

Drummond-Bois Francs

This Central Quebec riding is brand new, having been created out of Drummond and Richmond. The redistributed results from show the Liberals won 40%, the PQ with 32% and the ADQ with 25%. However, there is no incumbent running in this riding, and the CAQ candidate is a former ADQ MNA. With the right swing, the CAQ should pick up this seat.

Gouin

Now to the Island of Montreal, one of the more exciting races will be to see if Quebec Solidaire co-leader Francoise David will be able to win the party's second riding. With the way the party is polling on the island, they should be able to pick this seat up. And since they are targeting this seat, they are likely to win this by even more than I projected.

Groulx
This is another suburban Montreal riding that will be one to watch. It is an open seat that the PQ won by just 400 votes last election. However, the CAQ has a shot at winning the seat, which the ADQ won by 9 points in 2007. However, their MNA from that election is running for the Liberals. Despite that, this will be a CAQ-PQ race that I think the CAQ will prevail in.

Laporte

The south shore will also see a lot of fierce battles, including this one in Laporte. The Liberals are in danger of losing this seat which they have held since 1981.This area has been trending to the PQ over the years, and this year might be the year they finally win it back. However, I don't think the 16 point deficit they face will be enough to pick it up. 

Laurier-Dorion

This riding on the Island of Montreal is usually a safe Liberal seat. However, the PQ did manage to win the riding in a 2004 by-election, only to lose it again in the 2007 general. With the Liberals really tanking in Montreal though, I feel the PQ should be able to pick this seat up.

Lotbiniere-Frotenac

This is another new riding, located in the conservative Chaudiere-Appalaches region. The redistributed results from 2008 showed the Liberals getting 48% of the votes here and the ADQ in second with 29%. Will that be enough of a deficit for the CAQ to over come? I think so. 

Megantic

This is another new riding, nestled in the Eastern Townships on the US border. The Liberals would have won this seat over the PQ by 8 points according to the redistributed results from 2008. The area has never voted for the PQ before, however, but 8 points is not much to overcome. I believe the PQ will make history in this riding by winning it for the first time ever.

Mille-Isles

The Liberal incumbent is facing off against former BQ MP Robert Carrier who is running for the PQ in this Laval riding. Redistribution made this seat safer for the Liberals, but at this point no gerrymandering would be possible to help the Liberals in some areas. I believe Carrier should be able to win this seat.

Mirabel

This exurban riding west of Montreal seems like prime territory for the CAQ. The ADQ won the seat by 10 points in 2007, only to lose in 2008 by 25%. However, I think the CAQ should be able to pick this off from the PQ.

Nicolet-Becancour

This is another must-watch riding located on the south shore of the St. Lawrence half way between Montreal and Quebec City. This is a must watch race because it is the only realistic chance for the Option Nationale party to win a seat. Their leader, Jean-Martin Aussant is running in the riding and he also happens to be the incumbent MNA, having previously been elected as a PQiste. The ON is an orthodox separatist party that sees their victory as being a mandate for sovereignty. A riding specific poll showed Aussant with a good chance of winning, being behind the CAQ by 3 points. With that poll being the only reliable way of knowing how much his support is, I have no choice but to base my prediction on it. I believe the CAQ will in it in a close one.

Rouyn-Noranda-Temiscamingue

The Liberals may be the incumbent party in this northern Quebec riding, but the numbers suggest this race will be between the CAQ and the PQ. The Liberal incumbent is not even running again. The ADQ never won this seat, but their 17% showing in 2008 was very strong for the party in that election, especially with no incumbency advantage. The party only won 27% in the previous election. It's tough to say how well the CAQ will do here, so the safe bet is on the PQ.

Saint Henri-Sainte Anne

This Montreal riding has gone Liberal in every election since 1981, but the PQ have been inching ever closer to getting it back. Having only lost the seat by 9 points in 2008, they are poised to win the seat for the first time since 1976. It will be close, but I think with declining fortunes, the PQ will win here.

Sherbrooke

Possibly the most important race to watch will be Sherbrooke, the Premier's riding. Somehow Charest has been able to win this seat over and over again, even as a federal Tory in 1993, when he was one of only two members of his party to get elected. Charest has had many scares, and this election will be his toughest. There have been three riding polls conducted here, and he trailed in all three. He has been closing the gap though. The first poll showed a 15 point disadvantage. The second showed a 13 point defeat, while the most recent showed a 2 point loss. My model shows the race as a tie. I am not sure if the most recent poll is an outlier or indicative of a large swing, but I believe the safest bet here is to call a PQ win, with Premier Charest being ousted.

Soulanges

My model shows this riding to have all three major parties within 1 point of each other. The CAQ probably wont win the seat though, as the ADQ was never able to win the seat. The PQ only lost the riding by 9 points in 2008, so they have a good shot to win the seat. However, I think the Liberals will probably eke this one out.

Verdun

On the surface, Verdun appears to be a safe Liberal seat. It has never voted for the PQ. However, this election may be very close there. The Liberals are down massively in Montreal, and their 13 point victory here in 2008 may get erased. The PQ are running a heavy weight in former MP Thiery St-Cyr. In the end though, history is on the Liberal's side, and they are the safe bet at retaining this seat.

Whew!

To wrap up this post, I thought I would post two maps to help you out as you follow the election this evening. The first map just labels each riding, while the second map is the redistributed results of the 2008 election with the current riding boundaries. Enjoy!

Oh, and polls close at 8pm. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter as I comment on the election results.

Quebec's 125 ridings

2008 redistributed election results