2012 Alberta election - final prediction.

Final prediction map.

I've read your comments, I've analyzed the polls, and I've read the tea leaves. It's time for my final prediction of the Alberta election being held tomorrow.

Since my last projection, the Progressive Conservatives have made a small come back in polls, but it shouldn't be enough for them to overtake the Wildrose Party which appears to be headed for a majority government. Polls currently show the Tories in the low 30s, while the Wildrose Party has been pretty consistently polling at 41%. From the looks of it, the NDP should finish 3^rd, but the Liberals wont be far behind. Both parties are polling in the low teens.

Anyways, I've tried to take a look at every riding to try and think who will win in each one, and to project how much each candidate will get. I've taken a look a regional polling as well as comments I've read either on my blog, being emailed to me, or on other websites. I hope I have compiled the most accurate prediction of the election. However, this election has been very hard to predict. With an upstart party like the Wildrose coming out of nowhere, it has been tricky to determine not so much where they will win, but where they won't. I'd like to thank everyone who provided we with their two cents worth.

And now my final predictions (I do reserve the right to change my predictions up until polls open tomorrow, if there are any glaring errors):

Riding	PC	WRP	Lib	NDP	Oth	Winning candidate
Airdrie	34	51	6	7	2	Rob Anderson
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater	42	41	5	12	-	Jeff Johnson
Banff-Cochrane	15	44	24	19	-	Tom Copithorne
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock	37	47	6	8	2	Link Byfield
Battle River-Wainwright	44	47	5	5	1	Dave Nelson
Bonnyville-Cold Lake	44	45	5	8	-	Roy Doonanco
Calgary-Acadia	39	42	11	6	2	Richard Jones
Calgary-Bow	34	46	12	6	2	Tim Dyck
Calgary-Buffalo	25	32	34	7	2	Kent Hehr
Calgary-Cross	38	40	10	10	2	Hardyal Mann
Calgary-Currie	26	39	21	7	8	Corrie Adolph
Calgary-East	34	43	13	8	1	Jesse Minhas
Calgary-Elbow	39	37	15	6	3	Alison Redford
Calgary-Fish Creek	38	45	11	6	-	Heather Forsyth
Calgary-Foothills	34	43	18	5	-	Dustin Nau
Calgary-Fort	36	43	15	8	2	Jeevan Mangat
Calgary-Glenmore	26	53	15	6	-	Paul Hinman
Calgary-Greenway	32	49	11	8	-	Ron Leech
Calgary-Hawkwood	27	47	13	7	6	David Yager
Calgary-Hays	37	46	11	6	-	Wayne Anderson
Calgary-Klein	26	44	13	15	2	Jeremy Nixon
Calgary-Lougheed	38	45	11	6	-	John Carpay
Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill	34	46	12	6	2	Roy Alexander
Calgary-McCall	23	40	27	6	3	Grant Galpin
Calgary-Mountain View	19	33	38	8	2	David Swann
Calgary-North West	29	49	12	6	4	Chris Challis
Calgary-Northern Hills	37	41	16	6	-	Prasad Panda
Calgary-Shaw	35	46	11	6	2	Jeff Wilson
Calgary-South East	39	46	10	5	-	Bill Jarvis
Calgary-Varsity	22	41	26	7	4	Rob Solinger
Calgary-West	31	48	12	5	4	Andrew Constantinidis
Cardston-Taber-Warner	14	74	2	10	-	Gary Bikman
Chestermere-Rocky View	42	48	6	4	-	Bruce McAllister
Cypress-Medicine Hat	26	49	13	12	-	Drew Barnes
Drayton Valley-Devon	39	45	6	10	-	Dean Shular
Drumheller-Stettler	32	53	3	11	2	Rick Strankman
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley	25	57	2	16	-	Kelly Hudson
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview	23	27	8	41	1	Deron Bilous
Edmonton-Calder	29	24	9	35	3	David Eggen
Edmonton-Castle Downs	36	29	19	14	2	Thomas Lukaszuk
Edmonton Centre	15	28	34	23	-	Laurie Blakeman
Edmonton-Decore	29	31	23	17	-	Chris Bataluk
Edmonton-Ellerslie	33	32	16	16	3	Naresh Bhardwaj
Edmonton-Glenora	24	20	16	34	6	Ray Martin
Edmonton-Gold Bar	29	22	18	28	3	David Dorward
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood	14	26	7	50	3	Brian Mason
Edmonton-Manning	32	29	13	23	3	Peter Sandhu
Edmonton-McClung	32	29	26	10	3	David Xiao
Edmonton-Meadowlark	32	27	29	10	2	Bob Maskell
Edmonton-Mill Creek	42	28	13	14	2	Gene Zwozdesky
Edmonton-Mill Woods	27	30	18	18	7	Joanne Autio
Edmonton-Riverview	23	28	31	16	2	Arif Khan
Edmonton-Rutherford	26	31	25	13	5	Kyle McLeod
Edmonton-South West	48	28	17	5	2	Matt Jeneroux
Edmonton-Strathcona	12	25	12	49	2	Rachel Notley
Edmonton-Whitemud	42	27	19	9	2	David Hancock
Fort McMurray-Conklin	35	39	15	10	-	Doug Faulkner
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo	32	42	16	10	-	Guy Boutilier
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville	40	44	4	10	2	Shannon Stubbs
Grande Prairie-Smoky	34	49	5	11	1	Todd Loewen
Grande Prairie-Wapiti	40	41	5	10	1	Ethane Jarvis
Highwood	34	57	4	5	-	Danielle Smith
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake	29	50	4	15	2	Kerry Towle
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills	38	43	7	12	-	Shayne Saskiw
Lacombe-Ponoka	34	50	5	9	2	Rod Fox
Leduc-Beaumont	43	34	8	12	3	George Rogers
Lesser Slave Lake	37	43	10	9	1	Darryl Boisson
Lethbridge-East	21	45	20	14	-	Kent Prestage
Lethbridge-West	23	38	11	26	2	Kevin Kinahan
Little Bow	21	65	3	11	-	Ian Donovan
Livingstone-Macleod	27	52	7	13	1	Pat Stier
Medicine Hat	13	49	24	13	1	Blake Pedersen
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills	25	65	1	9	-	Bruce Rowe
Peace River	35	43	6	16	-	Alan Forsyth
Red Deer-North	23	48	12	15	2	Randy Weins
Red Deer-South	21	47	17	13	2	Nathan Stephan
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre	29	54	5	12	-	Joe Anglin
Sherwood Park	41	31	9	10	9	Cathy Oleson
Spruce Grove-St. Albert	46	35	9	10	-	Doug Horner
St. Albert	33	34	12	10	11	James Burrows
Stony Plain	41	38	6	11	4	Ken Lemke
Strathcona-Sherwood Park	51	32	7	10	-	Dave Quest
Strathmore-Brooks	38	49	2	10	1	Alex Wychopen
Vermilion-Lloydminster	34	54	4	7	1	Danny Hozack
West Yellowhead	24	37	12	12	15	Stuart Taylor
Wetaskiwin-Camrose	41	44	6	10	1	Trevor Miller
Whitecourt-Ste. Anne	32	55	5	8	-	Maryann Chichak

Analyzing the toss ups (ridings projected to be within 5%)

Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater

Perhaps I should have put this riding in my list of races to watch? With recent polling suggesting the Tories have a bump in the polls in Northern Alberta, they will probably win ridings like this one, where they got a significant percentage of the vote (and where Wildrose didn't) in 2008. Especially considering this is a riding bordering Edmonton, it is probably more moderate and not Wildrose territory. I predict Tory incumbent Jeff Johnson will keep his seat. 

 

Battle River-Wainwright

I struggled with my decision here. I had this riding as a toss up in my last projection. After I factored in recent poll changes, the Tories got the edge in this riding. But, that didn't set well with my gut feeling. It's a fairly rural riding, and not too “northern” in character, as it is in the southern part of Northern Alberta.. While near Edmonton, it sits just outside of Edmonton's moderating influences. Incumbent Tory MLA Doug Griffiths did get a huge percentage (79%) in 2008, and he is a cabinet minister. But I think the Wildrose Party will get the edge here. 

 

Bonnyville-Cold Lake

This riding was won big time by Tory neophyte Genia Leskiw in 2008 with a massive 76% of the vote. However, she is a one term incumbent, and is not a cabinet minister. Her opponent, Ray Doonanco looks to be a credible opponent with some political experience. Now, this riding, while in rural Alberta may still back the Tories, as it has a moderate streak, having voted Liberal in the 1993 provincial election. But, I have to think Wildrose will win this. 

 

Calgary-Acadia

This is a semi-suburban Calgary riding, meaning it could be a riding that the Tories could hold on to. Their candidate is Jonathan Denis, a current cabinet minister. Wildrose didn't do so well here in 2008 due to the inclusion of another well known right wing candidate in the race (Craig Chandler). I think this will be one of the many Calgary ridings caught up in the Wildrose wave tomorrow.

Calgary-Buffalo

I had to take a second look at this riding, because, as a very urban, downtown riding, it didn't seem like the type of riding that will go Wildrose. And to add to that, the WRP candidate doesn't appear to be running a very good campaign. I think that while in most of Calgary, many Liberals will strategically vote Tory to stop Wildrose, it will be in Liberal ridings like this that Tories vote Liberal to stop Wildrose. Or at least, Liberals will not switch their vote.

Calgary-Cross

Long time incumbent Tory Yvonne Fritz may have held this riding for a long time, but she in trouble here. This suburban Calgary riding is in a suburban part of the city, which means it will be favourable to Wildrose. The Wildrose candidate is Hardyal Singh “Happy” Mann, a Sikh. He appears to be a very strong candidate. Let's hope racism doesn't play a factor in this riding.

Calgary-Elbow

Tory Premier Alison Redford looked like she was in trouble in her own riding for the entire campaign. Now however, I think with the Tories getting a bump in Calgary, she will be able to retain her seat.

Calgary-Mountain View

Word is the Liberals are still strong here and are expected to win this urban Calgary riding. I don't think the demographics are right here for a Wildrose pick up, and so I'm going with Liberal incumbent David Swann to win this.

Calgary-Northern Hills

This is a newly created riding in the northern suburban part of Calgary. The Wildrose Party are running a strong candidate in Prasad Panda against one term Tory incumbent Teresa Woo-Paw. Panda should win here, and racism shouldn't play a factor because both candidates are visible minorities.

Edmonton-Decore

A really tough call in this suburban Edmonton riding. Previously a Liberal-PC race, this riding is now a 3 way race with the Wildrose factored in. As the anti-Wildrose voters will have difficulty coalescing between one candidate, Wildrose candidate Chris Bataluk I predict will come up the middle to take this riding. This area doesn't seem to be as hostile to the Wildrose, giving the Alberta Alliance 8% of the vote here in 2004, and it is a suburban part of the city. The Tory incumbent, Jill Sarich is a strong MLA, but she is a one term incumbent.

Edmonton-Ellerslie

At first glance, I thought that this riding might go for the Wildrose. It is after a suburban riding. However, it is a bit different then most Edmonton suburban ridings. While the Wildrose/Alberta Alliance have had good numbers here before (well, better than average), there seems to be a cap at how many voters in this riding are willing to vote for a right wing party such as Wildrose. After all federally, this was Liberal David Kilgour's area during the Reform Party days of the 1990s. Apparently the Liberals and NDP are not running serious campaigns here, and so many of their supporters will vote Tory this time to stop the Wildrose.

Edmonton-Gold Bar

This one was really a tough call, but I'll have to give the Tories the edge here. Their candidate is David Dorward, who ran for the Tories back in 2008 and also ran for mayor in 2010. He is a well known commodity in Edmonton, and therefore has the edge. The NDP is also running a strong campaign in this riding, and might be able to pull off an upset here. However, numbers are not in their favour, as they have never done well in this seat provincially. But, the NDP does hold this area federally, so don't be surprised if the NDP does win this.

Edmonton-Manning

This seat is held by one-term Tory incumbent Peter Sandhu. This is a suburban seat, but one that doesn't have an overwhelming right wing vote, and therefore it will be difficult for the Wildrose to pick up. Sandhu should be able to keep this seat.

Edmonton-McClung

According to my model, this is looking like a close three-way race. This is a suburban, somewhat conservative seat in the southwest of the city, but has backed the Liberals in the past. In fact, the Liberal candidate, Mo Elsalhy is a former MLA for this riding. Wildrose has previously been average here, meaning they should get about the city-wide average of the party. This gives one-term Tory MLA David Xiao the edge.

Edmonton-Meadowlark

This is the seat of Liberal leader Raj Sherman, who was elected in 2008 as a Tory. That made predicting what will happen in this seat very difficult. This seat has voted Liberal in the past, but all signs are pointing to Sherman's defeat at this point. So that asks the question, who will win then? Between the Tories and the Wildrose, the Tories have the stronger candidate in former MLA Bob Maskell.

Edmonton-Mill Woods

Mill Woods, in Edmonton's southeast end looks like it might go Wildrose this election. Why? Well, first off, they've had slightly above average results here in the past. Secondly, this is a rather suburban riding. But most importantly, the incumbent Carl Benito lost his Tory nomination race and is running as an independent. He is a controversial person, so he might not siphon that many votes from his Tory competition, but it should be enough to allow Wildrose candidate Joanne Autio to win the race.

Edmonton-Riverview

This was another difficult riding to predict. The riding has been Liberal since it was created, but its popular incumbent, and former Liberal leader Kevin Taft is retiring. This has left the seat open, and vulnerable as the Liberals sink in the polls. I do know the NDP is targeting this riding, and will certainly hurt the Liberal's chances here. According to ChangeAlberta though, Liberal candidate Arif Khan still holds the edge here over the NDP candidate. Vote splitting might cause the Tories or the Wildrose to win this riding, but I don't think either party has the votes in this riding to win.

Edmonton-Rutherford

This seat has previously seen many close races between the Liberals and the Tories. What better riding for the Wildrose to win, by coming up the middle? The race between the Tories and Liberals is an '08 re-match between current Tory MLA Fred Horne and former Liberal MLA Rick Miller. With both parties down in the polls, it should allow Wildrose candidate Kyle McLeod to come up the middle and win.

Fort McMurray-Conklin

This open seat might end up rather close, as it is a race between two strong candidates. It will be interesting to see how this riding, which is full of people from out of province will vote. Right wing parties have traditionally done poorer in the area. Having said that, with Wildrose ahead in the polls and running former Wood Buffalo mayor Doug Faulkner, they should be able to win the riding.

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville

This riding proves to be a tough fight between two credible candidates. It's an open seat (vacated by former Premier Ed Stelmach), so it's anyone's guess who will win. It's just outside Edmonton, so it might be moderated by it, but it also has a large rural portion that will back Wildrose. I think I feel more comfortable picking the Wildrose to win this seat.

Grande Prairie-Wapiti

The math shows this as a close race, with incumbent Tory MLA Wayne Drysdale having a small edge in this riding. However, I think he might lose. He is just a one term incumbent, and the Wildrose candidate will of course have a great opportunity to win it. But in analyzing past voting patterns, it appears that both Grande Prairie ridings normally vote very similarly. With the other Grande Prairie riding (Grande Prairie-Smoky) projected to go WRP, I will have to say this one will as well.

Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills

This is one of those ridings that went Liberal in 1993, indicating that it has a progressive streak that might mean the Wildrose Party could lose this seat. However, when the Alberta Alliance ran here in 2004, they got more than twice the provincial average in support, showing that they have a base of strength here. I predict Wildrose candidate Shayne Saskiw will be the victor here.

Sherwood Park

This open seat appears to be quite the battle. You have the former mayor of Stratchona County Cathy Oleson running for the Tories (who lost her bid for re-election in 2010) against a young Wildrose candidate in Garnett Genuis. Oleson gets the advantage in my books due to her experience. Plus right wing independent candidate James Ford is running, and is well known in the area for his near-attempts to win a seat in federal parliament. He is sure to keep Genuis from winning.

St. Albert

I want to give the Wildrose candidate, James Burrows the edge in this riding. He has the more experience in this open race, over Tory Stephen Khan, as Burrows is a city councillor. That doesn't mean the Tories might not win this seat, as Wildrose has only done average here in the past, while the riding has a significant Liberal base that has to go somewhere. Both the Liberals and the NDP do not have strong campaigns.

Stony Plain

This may be an open seat, but that doesn't mean that the Wildrose Party will necessarily pick it up. It's an Edmonton suburban riding that will no doubt be moderated by its influence. But most importantly, the Tories have the stronger candidate here in Stony Plain mayor Ken Lemke. I predict the Tories hold the seat.

Wetaskiwin-Camrose

This riding may only be close because of the 65% support that Tory incumbent Verlyn Olson received in 2008. However, he is up against a formidable opponent in Wildroser Trevor Miller, a county councillor. Olson is just a one term incumbent, and may be perceived as a moderate because he ran for the federal Progressive Conservative party at one point. I predict Miller wins. 

Totals chart:

Changes do not add up because I had projected four ties last time.