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Sunday, April 22, 2012

2012 Alberta election - final prediction.

Final prediction map.

I've read your comments, I've analyzed the polls, and I've read the tea leaves. It's time for my final prediction of the Alberta election being held tomorrow.

Since my last projection, the Progressive Conservatives have made a small come back in polls, but it shouldn't be enough for them to overtake the Wildrose Party which appears to be headed for a majority government. Polls currently show the Tories in the low 30s, while the Wildrose Party has been pretty consistently polling at 41%. From the looks of it, the NDP should finish 3rd, but the Liberals wont be far behind. Both parties are polling in the low teens.

Anyways, I've tried to take a look at every riding to try and think who will win in each one, and to project how much each candidate will get. I've taken a look a regional polling as well as comments I've read either on my blog, being emailed to me, or on other websites. I hope I have compiled the most accurate prediction of the election. However, this election has been very hard to predict. With an upstart party like the Wildrose coming out of nowhere, it has been tricky to determine not so much where they will win, but where they won't. I'd like to thank everyone who provided we with their two cents worth.

And now my final predictions (I do reserve the right to change my predictions up until polls open tomorrow, if there are any glaring errors):
Riding PC WRP Lib NDP Oth Winning candidate
Airdrie 34 51 6 7 2 Rob Anderson
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater 42
41
5 12 - Jeff Johnson
Banff-Cochrane
15
44 24 19 - Tom Copithorne
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock
37
47 6 8 2 Link Byfield
Battle River-Wainwright
44
47 5 5 1 Dave Nelson
Bonnyville-Cold Lake
44
45 5 8 - Roy Doonanco
Calgary-Acadia
39
42 11 6 2 Richard Jones
Calgary-Bow
34
46 12 6 2 Tim Dyck
Calgary-Buffalo
25
32
34 7 2 Kent Hehr
Calgary-Cross
38
40 10 10 2 Hardyal Mann
Calgary-Currie
26
39 21 7 8 Corrie Adolph
Calgary-East
34
43 13 8 1 Jesse Minhas
Calgary-Elbow 39
37
15 6 3 Alison Redford
Calgary-Fish Creek
38
45 11 6 - Heather Forsyth
Calgary-Foothills
34
43 18 5 - Dustin Nau
Calgary-Fort
36
43 15 8 2 Jeevan Mangat
Calgary-Glenmore
26
53 15 6 - Paul Hinman
Calgary-Greenway
32
49 11 8 - Ron Leech
Calgary-Hawkwood
27
47 13 7 6 David Yager
Calgary-Hays
37
46 11 6 - Wayne Anderson
Calgary-Klein
26
44 13 15 2 Jeremy Nixon
Calgary-Lougheed
38
45 11 6 - John Carpay
Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill
34
46 12 6 2 Roy Alexander
Calgary-McCall
23
40 27 6 3 Grant Galpin
Calgary-Mountain View
19
33
38 8 2 David Swann
Calgary-North West
29
49 12 6 4 Chris Challis
Calgary-Northern Hills
37
41 16 6 - Prasad Panda
Calgary-Shaw
35
46 11 6 2 Jeff Wilson
Calgary-South East
39
46 10 5 - Bill Jarvis
Calgary-Varsity
22
41 26 7 4 Rob Solinger
Calgary-West
31
48 12 5 4 Andrew Constantinidis
Cardston-Taber-Warner
14
74 2 10 - Gary Bikman
Chestermere-Rocky View
42
48 6 4 - Bruce McAllister
Cypress-Medicine Hat
26
49 13 12 - Drew Barnes
Drayton Valley-Devon
39
45 6 10 - Dean Shular
Drumheller-Stettler
32
53 3 11 2 Rick Strankman
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley
25
57 2 16 - Kelly Hudson
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview
23
27
8 41 1 Deron Bilous
Edmonton-Calder
29
24
9 35 3 David Eggen
Edmonton-Castle Downs 36
29
19
14
2 Thomas Lukaszuk
Edmonton Centre
15
28
34
23
- Laurie Blakeman
Edmonton-Decore
29
31
23
17
- Chris Bataluk
Edmonton-Ellerslie 33
32
16
16
3 Naresh Bhardwaj
Edmonton-Glenora
24
20
16
34 6 Ray Martin
Edmonton-Gold Bar 29
22
18
28
3 David Dorward
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood
14
26
7
50 3 Brian Mason
Edmonton-Manning 32
29
13
23
3 Peter Sandhu
Edmonton-McClung 32
29
26
10
3 David Xiao
Edmonton-Meadowlark 32
27
29
10
2 Bob Maskell
Edmonton-Mill Creek 42
28
13
14
2 Gene Zwozdesky
Edmonton-Mill Woods
27
30
18
18
7 Joanne Autio
Edmonton-Riverview
23
28
31
16
2 Arif Khan
Edmonton-Rutherford
26
31
25
13
5 Kyle McLeod
Edmonton-South West 48
28
17
5
2 Matt Jeneroux
Edmonton-Strathcona
12
25
12
49 2 Rachel Notley
Edmonton-Whitemud 42
27
19
9
2 David Hancock
Fort McMurray-Conklin
35
39
15
10
- Doug Faulkner
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
32
42
16
10
- Guy Boutilier
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
40
44
4
10
2 Shannon Stubbs
Grande Prairie-Smoky
34
49
5
11
1 Todd Loewen
Grande Prairie-Wapiti
40
41
5
10
1 Ethane Jarvis
Highwood
34
57
4
5
- Danielle Smith
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
29
50
4
15
2 Kerry Towle
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
38
43
7
12
- Shayne Saskiw
Lacombe-Ponoka
34
50
5
9
2 Rod Fox
Leduc-Beaumont 43
34
8
12
3 George Rogers
Lesser Slave Lake
37
43
10
9
1 Darryl Boisson
Lethbridge-East
21
45
20
14
- Kent Prestage
Lethbridge-West
23
38
11
26
2 Kevin Kinahan
Little Bow
21
65
3
11
- Ian Donovan
Livingstone-Macleod
27
52
7
13
1 Pat Stier
Medicine Hat
13
49
24
13
1
Blake Pedersen
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
25
65
1
9
-
Bruce Rowe
Peace River
35
43
6
16
-
Alan Forsyth
Red Deer-North
23
48
12
15
2
Randy Weins
Red Deer-South
21
47
17
13
2
Nathan Stephan
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre
29
54
5
12
-
Joe Anglin
Sherwood Park 41
31
9
10
9
Cathy Oleson
Spruce Grove-St. Albert 46
35
9
10
-
Doug Horner
St. Albert
33
34
12
10
11
James Burrows
Stony Plain 41
38
6
11
4
Ken Lemke
Strathcona-Sherwood Park 51
32
7
10
-
Dave Quest
Strathmore-Brooks
38
49
2
10
1
Alex Wychopen
Vermilion-Lloydminster
34
54
4
7
1
Danny Hozack
West Yellowhead
24
37
12
12
15
Stuart Taylor
Wetaskiwin-Camrose
41
44
6
10
1
Trevor Miller
Whitecourt-Ste. Anne
32
55
5
8
-
Maryann Chichak

Analyzing the toss ups (ridings projected to be within 5%)

Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater
Perhaps I should have put this riding in my list of races to watch? With recent polling suggesting the Tories have a bump in the polls in Northern Alberta, they will probably win ridings like this one, where they got a significant percentage of the vote (and where Wildrose didn't) in 2008. Especially considering this is a riding bordering Edmonton, it is probably more moderate and not Wildrose territory. I predict Tory incumbent Jeff Johnson will keep his seat. 
 
Battle River-Wainwright
I struggled with my decision here. I had this riding as a toss up in my last projection. After I factored in recent poll changes, the Tories got the edge in this riding. But, that didn't set well with my gut feeling. It's a fairly rural riding, and not too “northern” in character, as it is in the southern part of Northern Alberta.. While near Edmonton, it sits just outside of Edmonton's moderating influences. Incumbent Tory MLA Doug Griffiths did get a huge percentage (79%) in 2008, and he is a cabinet minister. But I think the Wildrose Party will get the edge here. 
 
Bonnyville-Cold Lake
This riding was won big time by Tory neophyte Genia Leskiw in 2008 with a massive 76% of the vote. However, she is a one term incumbent, and is not a cabinet minister. Her opponent, Ray Doonanco looks to be a credible opponent with some political experience. Now, this riding, while in rural Alberta may still back the Tories, as it has a moderate streak, having voted Liberal in the 1993 provincial election. But, I have to think Wildrose will win this. 
 
Calgary-Acadia
This is a semi-suburban Calgary riding, meaning it could be a riding that the Tories could hold on to. Their candidate is Jonathan Denis, a current cabinet minister. Wildrose didn't do so well here in 2008 due to the inclusion of another well known right wing candidate in the race (Craig Chandler). I think this will be one of the many Calgary ridings caught up in the Wildrose wave tomorrow.

Calgary-Buffalo
I had to take a second look at this riding, because, as a very urban, downtown riding, it didn't seem like the type of riding that will go Wildrose. And to add to that, the WRP candidate doesn't appear to be running a very good campaign. I think that while in most of Calgary, many Liberals will strategically vote Tory to stop Wildrose, it will be in Liberal ridings like this that Tories vote Liberal to stop Wildrose. Or at least, Liberals will not switch their vote.

Calgary-Cross
Long time incumbent Tory Yvonne Fritz may have held this riding for a long time, but she in trouble here. This suburban Calgary riding is in a suburban part of the city, which means it will be favourable to Wildrose. The Wildrose candidate is Hardyal Singh “Happy” Mann, a Sikh. He appears to be a very strong candidate. Let's hope racism doesn't play a factor in this riding.

Calgary-Elbow
Tory Premier Alison Redford looked like she was in trouble in her own riding for the entire campaign. Now however, I think with the Tories getting a bump in Calgary, she will be able to retain her seat.

Calgary-Mountain View
Word is the Liberals are still strong here and are expected to win this urban Calgary riding. I don't think the demographics are right here for a Wildrose pick up, and so I'm going with Liberal incumbent David Swann to win this.

Calgary-Northern Hills
This is a newly created riding in the northern suburban part of Calgary. The Wildrose Party are running a strong candidate in Prasad Panda against one term Tory incumbent Teresa Woo-Paw. Panda should win here, and racism shouldn't play a factor because both candidates are visible minorities.

Edmonton-Decore
A really tough call in this suburban Edmonton riding. Previously a Liberal-PC race, this riding is now a 3 way race with the Wildrose factored in. As the anti-Wildrose voters will have difficulty coalescing between one candidate, Wildrose candidate Chris Bataluk I predict will come up the middle to take this riding. This area doesn't seem to be as hostile to the Wildrose, giving the Alberta Alliance 8% of the vote here in 2004, and it is a suburban part of the city. The Tory incumbent, Jill Sarich is a strong MLA, but she is a one term incumbent.

Edmonton-Ellerslie
At first glance, I thought that this riding might go for the Wildrose. It is after a suburban riding. However, it is a bit different then most Edmonton suburban ridings. While the Wildrose/Alberta Alliance have had good numbers here before (well, better than average), there seems to be a cap at how many voters in this riding are willing to vote for a right wing party such as Wildrose. After all federally, this was Liberal David Kilgour's area during the Reform Party days of the 1990s. Apparently the Liberals and NDP are not running serious campaigns here, and so many of their supporters will vote Tory this time to stop the Wildrose.

Edmonton-Gold Bar
This one was really a tough call, but I'll have to give the Tories the edge here. Their candidate is David Dorward, who ran for the Tories back in 2008 and also ran for mayor in 2010. He is a well known commodity in Edmonton, and therefore has the edge. The NDP is also running a strong campaign in this riding, and might be able to pull off an upset here. However, numbers are not in their favour, as they have never done well in this seat provincially. But, the NDP does hold this area federally, so don't be surprised if the NDP does win this.

Edmonton-Manning
This seat is held by one-term Tory incumbent Peter Sandhu. This is a suburban seat, but one that doesn't have an overwhelming right wing vote, and therefore it will be difficult for the Wildrose to pick up. Sandhu should be able to keep this seat.

Edmonton-McClung
According to my model, this is looking like a close three-way race. This is a suburban, somewhat conservative seat in the southwest of the city, but has backed the Liberals in the past. In fact, the Liberal candidate, Mo Elsalhy is a former MLA for this riding. Wildrose has previously been average here, meaning they should get about the city-wide average of the party. This gives one-term Tory MLA David Xiao the edge.

Edmonton-Meadowlark
This is the seat of Liberal leader Raj Sherman, who was elected in 2008 as a Tory. That made predicting what will happen in this seat very difficult. This seat has voted Liberal in the past, but all signs are pointing to Sherman's defeat at this point. So that asks the question, who will win then? Between the Tories and the Wildrose, the Tories have the stronger candidate in former MLA Bob Maskell.

Edmonton-Mill Woods
Mill Woods, in Edmonton's southeast end looks like it might go Wildrose this election. Why? Well, first off, they've had slightly above average results here in the past. Secondly, this is a rather suburban riding. But most importantly, the incumbent Carl Benito lost his Tory nomination race and is running as an independent. He is a controversial person, so he might not siphon that many votes from his Tory competition, but it should be enough to allow Wildrose candidate Joanne Autio to win the race.

Edmonton-Riverview
This was another difficult riding to predict. The riding has been Liberal since it was created, but its popular incumbent, and former Liberal leader Kevin Taft is retiring. This has left the seat open, and vulnerable as the Liberals sink in the polls. I do know the NDP is targeting this riding, and will certainly hurt the Liberal's chances here. According to ChangeAlberta though, Liberal candidate Arif Khan still holds the edge here over the NDP candidate. Vote splitting might cause the Tories or the Wildrose to win this riding, but I don't think either party has the votes in this riding to win.

Edmonton-Rutherford
This seat has previously seen many close races between the Liberals and the Tories. What better riding for the Wildrose to win, by coming up the middle? The race between the Tories and Liberals is an '08 re-match between current Tory MLA Fred Horne and former Liberal MLA Rick Miller. With both parties down in the polls, it should allow Wildrose candidate Kyle McLeod to come up the middle and win.

Fort McMurray-Conklin
This open seat might end up rather close, as it is a race between two strong candidates. It will be interesting to see how this riding, which is full of people from out of province will vote. Right wing parties have traditionally done poorer in the area. Having said that, with Wildrose ahead in the polls and running former Wood Buffalo mayor Doug Faulkner, they should be able to win the riding.

Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
This riding proves to be a tough fight between two credible candidates. It's an open seat (vacated by former Premier Ed Stelmach), so it's anyone's guess who will win. It's just outside Edmonton, so it might be moderated by it, but it also has a large rural portion that will back Wildrose. I think I feel more comfortable picking the Wildrose to win this seat.

Grande Prairie-Wapiti
The math shows this as a close race, with incumbent Tory MLA Wayne Drysdale having a small edge in this riding. However, I think he might lose. He is just a one term incumbent, and the Wildrose candidate will of course have a great opportunity to win it. But in analyzing past voting patterns, it appears that both Grande Prairie ridings normally vote very similarly. With the other Grande Prairie riding (Grande Prairie-Smoky) projected to go WRP, I will have to say this one will as well.

Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
This is one of those ridings that went Liberal in 1993, indicating that it has a progressive streak that might mean the Wildrose Party could lose this seat. However, when the Alberta Alliance ran here in 2004, they got more than twice the provincial average in support, showing that they have a base of strength here. I predict Wildrose candidate Shayne Saskiw will be the victor here.

Sherwood Park
This open seat appears to be quite the battle. You have the former mayor of Stratchona County Cathy Oleson running for the Tories (who lost her bid for re-election in 2010) against a young Wildrose candidate in Garnett Genuis. Oleson gets the advantage in my books due to her experience. Plus right wing independent candidate James Ford is running, and is well known in the area for his near-attempts to win a seat in federal parliament. He is sure to keep Genuis from winning.

St. Albert
I want to give the Wildrose candidate, James Burrows the edge in this riding. He has the more experience in this open race, over Tory Stephen Khan, as Burrows is a city councillor. That doesn't mean the Tories might not win this seat, as Wildrose has only done average here in the past, while the riding has a significant Liberal base that has to go somewhere. Both the Liberals and the NDP do not have strong campaigns.

Stony Plain
This may be an open seat, but that doesn't mean that the Wildrose Party will necessarily pick it up. It's an Edmonton suburban riding that will no doubt be moderated by its influence. But most importantly, the Tories have the stronger candidate here in Stony Plain mayor Ken Lemke. I predict the Tories hold the seat.

Wetaskiwin-Camrose
This riding may only be close because of the 65% support that Tory incumbent Verlyn Olson received in 2008. However, he is up against a formidable opponent in Wildroser Trevor Miller, a county councillor. Olson is just a one term incumbent, and may be perceived as a moderate because he ran for the federal Progressive Conservative party at one point. I predict Miller wins. 


Totals chart:
Changes do not add up because I had projected four ties last time.
  

9 comments:

  1. As a resident of Cold Lake who is temporarily attending school in Camrose, I agree with your assessment in these two ridings. In Bonnyville-Cold Lake, Doonanco and Leskiw are roughly tied in the lawn sign war, and it has been are hard-fought battle, but Wildrose should be able to pick this one up. I agree with your account of Wetaskiwin-Camrose as well, another narrow race but one that should also go Wildrose. However, it should be noted that the PC MLA in Wetaskiwin-Camrose is Verlyn Olson, not LeRoy Johnson. Johnson retired after the 2008 election.

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  2. Thanks, I fixed my error. I'm glad you agree with my predictions, I hadn't heard anything from that area, so I was just basing it on math and whatever candidate strengths I thought there were.

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  3. Here and 308 are vastly different this election. One of you will have some bragging rights tomorrow night. Good luck.

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  4. Yes, I've noticed the difference. I suppose it will be somewhere in between. I just don't know what ridings wont go WRP in many cases, so the safe bet is to predict Wildrose when in doubt. I think the PCs will win a few more seats in rural Alberta and in Calgary, I just don't know which ones.

    Now, I did my predictions before a new Forum Research poll came out showing a very close race. Seems to either be an outlier or catching some last minute momentum shifts. My bet is on the former.

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  5. It's going to be a close one I think, but the Forum poll is suspicious to me because it is so different from what Forum and everyone else has been saying so far in this election. It's a weekend poll, so I would treat it with suspicion just for that reason alone; people usually don't pay attention to politics and elections as much on weekends. From a rural north/central perspective, I actually think I saw more Wildrose support (signs and talking to people from the riding) in Stettler (Drumheller-Stettler) than I did in Battle River-Wainwright, so it is definitely proving to be difficult to tell in the part of the province that I am from.

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  6. Really blew that one. Wish you had been right! What do you think happened? Social media? Left all voting PC? Strategic voting?

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  7. I sure did blow it! I guess I can only blame the pollsters. I listened to everyone who commented on their local races.

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  8. hang on...62-16-5-4?? These numbers are almost perfect! Just got the PCs and Wildrose the wrong way round :p

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  9. The voters have shown that the Wildrose is too ideological and extreme to govern. Nothing more than a rural southern-based protest party.

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