2012 Alberta election prediction (March 31) - part 1

Current prediction. Toss ups in grey.

The writs dropped for the 2012 provincial election in Alberta this week, and it's expected to be an exciting race. Alberta, well known for electing landslide majorities in its elections, may not do so this time. The governing Progressive Conservative Party is in danger of losing an election for the first time in 41 years. The election has been called for April 23.

Two recent polls have shown the upstart "Wildrose Party", led by Danielle Smith ahead of the governing Tories. The Wildrose Party is a right wing populist party, that has gone under a number of name changes and mergers since its founding as the Alberta Alliance in 2002. The party had some success, electing one MLA in 2004, but they lost it in the 2008 election. However, the party elected Ms. Smith in 2009 and has been moving up in popular opinion ever since. After a by-election win and a number of floor crossings, the party now is the third largest party in the Alberta legislature with four seats.

A poll released Wednesday by Forum Research showed the Wildrose Party in the lead with 41%, and the Tories in second at 31%. Yesterday, Campaign Research released a poll with similar numbers. Wildrose was at 40% and the Tories at 30%. If these numbers turn out true, the Wildrose Party may be heading for a majority.

Riding locations.

It was these two polls that formed the basis of my first Alberta election prediction. It should be known that predicting this election will be very hard, because the lack of history behind the Wildrose Party. But, we can look at the past successes by such right wing populist movements like the federal Reform Party. It is clear from these numbers that the Wildrose Party will sweep the province, but the question remains, where will the Tories win seats? Who are their strongest incumbents who will be able to withstand the Wildrose surge? Hopefully the campaign will reveal this. If you have any feedback, please let me know. Part of my prediction process is reader input!

Seat by seat prediction

Riding	PC	WRP	Lib	NDP	Oth	Projected winning candidate
Airdrie	25	58	6	11	-	Rob Anderson
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater	41	42	5	12	-	Travis Olson
Banff-Cochrane	17	40	28	17	-	Tom Copithorne
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock	39	43	7	8	2	Link Byfield
Battle River-Wainwright	48	42	4	5	1	Doug Griffiths
Bonnyville-Cold Lake	44	46	4	8	-	Roy Doonanco
Calgary-Acadia	31	54	7	8	-	Richard Jones
Calgary-Bow	29	48	16	6	1	Tim Dyck
Calgary-Buffalo	18	42	32	7	1	Mike Blanchard
Calgary-Cross	38	44	6	10	2	Hardyal Mann
Calgary-Currie	19	41	26	7	7	Corrie Adolph
Calgary-East	38	46	10	8	-	Jesse Minhas
Calgary-Elbow	29	43	19	5	4	James Cole
Calgary-Fish Creek	30	53	11	6	-	Heather Forsyth
Calgary-Foothills	31	45	17	5	-	Dustin Nau
Calgary-Fort	32	43	5	17	1	Jeevan Mangat
Calgary-Glenmore	14	57	22	7	-	Paul Hinman
Calgary-Greenway	28	52	11	9	-	Ron Leech
Calgary-Hawkwood	22	51	18	7	2	David Yager
Calgary-Hays	32	53	9	6	-	Wayne Anderson
Calgary-Klein	28	48	11	11	2	Jeremy Nixon
Calgary-Lougheed	36	49	10	5	-	John Carpay
Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill	31	47	15	6	1	Roy Alexander
Calgary-McCall	22	42	30	6	-	Grant Galpin
Calgary-Mountain View	9	43	39	8	1	Shane McAllister
Calgary-North West	24	57	11	6	2	Chris Challis
Calgary-Northern Hills	32	50	12	6	-	Prasad Panda
Calgary-Shaw	35	51	7	6	1	Jeff Wilson
Calgary-South East	34	53	7	6	-	Bill Jarvis
Calgary-Varsity	19	46	27	6	2	Rob Solinger
Calgary-West	26	55	12	6	1	Andrew Constantinidis
Cardston-Taber-Warner	9	80	4	7	-	Gary Bikman
Chestermere-Rocky View	28	54	10	8	-	Bruce McAllister
Cypress-Medicine Hat	28	45	17	10	-	Drew Barnes
Drayton Valley-Devon	34	47	9	10	-	Dean Shular
Drumheller-Stettler	34	49	8	9	-	Rick Strankman
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley	23	59	2	16	-	Kelly Hudson
Edmonton-Beverly-Clearview	26	28	6	38	2	Deron Bilous
Edmonton-Calder	23	31	5	41	-	David Eggen
Edmonton-Castle Downs	38	27	20	12	3	Thomas Lukaszuk
Edmonton Centre	17	29	31	23	-	Laurie Blakeman
Edmonton-Decore	32	31	22	15	-	Janice Sarich
Edmonton-Ellerslie	30	30	17	20	3	Naresh Bhardwaj or Jackie Lovely
Edmonton-Glenora	27	28	23	17	5	Don Koziak
Edmonton-Gold Bar	24	27	29	16	4	Josipa Petrunic
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood	17	22	4	53	4	Brian Mason
Edmonton-Manning	30	29	14	23	4	Peter Sandhu
Edmonton-McClung	34	26	29	8	3	David Xiao
Edmonton-Meadowlark	20	28	38	11	3	Raj Sherman
Edmonton-Mill Creek	39	30	15	16	-	Gene Zwozdesky
Edmonton-Mill Woods	26	32	21	16	5	Joanne Autio
Edmonton-Riverview	23	30	35	12	-	Arif Khan
Edmonton-Rutherford	29	29	26	12	4	Fred Horne or Kyle McLeod
Edmonton-South West	37	33	22	8	-	Matt Jeneroux
Edmonton-Strathcona	13	27	7	53	-	Rachel Notley
Edmonton-Whitemud	45	27	18	7	3	David Hancock
Fort McMurray-Conklin	33	38	18	10	-	Doug Faulkner
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo	30	41	19	10	-	Guy Boutilier
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville	41	44	4	10	1	Shannon Stubbs
Grande Prairie-Smoky	36	48	5	11	-	Todd Loewen
Grande Prairie-Wapiti	40	39	9	12	-	Wayne Drysdale
Highwood	23	61	7	9	-	Danielle Smith
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake	30	49	8	12	1	Kerry Towle
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills	36	42	10	12	-	Shayne Saskiw
Lacombe-Ponoka	39	44	8	9	-	Rod Fox
Leduc-Beaumont	37	43	9	9	2	David Stasiewich
Lesser Slave Lake	35	43	13	9	-	Darryl Boisson
Lethbridge-East	14	41	33	12	-	Kent Prestage
Lethbridge-West	13	42	29	16	-	Kevin Kinahan
Little Bow	23	61	6	10	-	Ian Donovan
Livingstone-Macleod	29	48	11	11	1	Pat Stier
Medicine Hat	15	45	28	11	1	Blake Pedersen
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills	27	61	4	8	-	Bruce Rowe
Peace River	33	44	7	16	-	Alan Forsyth
Red Deer-North	29	45	15	10	1	Randy Weins
Red Deer-South	26	44	20	9	1	Nathan Stephan
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre	34	53	5	8	-	Joe Anglin
Sherwood Park	33	36	18	7	6	Garnett Genius
Spruce Grove-St. Albert	33	33	21	7	-	Doug Horner or Travis Hughes
St. Albert	26	38	28	7	1	James Burrows
Stony Plain	34	47	11	8	-	Hal Tagg
Strathcona-Sherwood Park	43	37	13	8	-	Dave Quest
Strathmore-Brooks	40	46	5	9	-	Alex Wychopen
Vermilion-Lloydminster	36	53	4	7	-	Danny Hozack
West Yellowhead	23	36	17	14	10	Stuart Taylor
Wetaskiwin-Camrose	40	45	6	10	1	Trevor Miller
Whitcourt-Ste. Anne	31	56	5	8		Maryann Chichak

This projection reduces the Tories to nine seats (plus three ties). All but four are tossups, within 5% of the next best party. The NDP would double its seat total to four, while the Liberals would also win 4. However, all but one are toss ups. This leaves the Wildrose Party at a whopping 67 seats (plus three ties). A significant number of these are still toss ups however, that can go back to the Tories if they gain any ground.

I should also mention that I am working on getting the redistributed numbers from the 2008 election, as Alberta redistributed their riding boundaries since then. Some of the figures in this chart are based on redistributed numbers, and some are estimates for the time being.

This wraps up part one of my projection. Part 2 will look at the election more in depth, and will also look at some key races. I hope to post part 2 in the coming days.

NDP leadership endorsement map - final edition

The NDP leadership election is right around the corner, and I have finally compiled the map of political endorsements for the candidates. Since I last published my map in February, a lot has happened, including one of the candidates (Romeo Saganash) dropping out. There have been a huge swath of endorsements, so many, that I'm afraid my map will not be 100% accurate. I did try my best, but I haven't had the time over the last few weeks to religiously follow all the endorsements I'm afraid. So I did my best, following twitter feeds and news items from candidates websites.

If I missed any endorsements, I apologize. Unfortunately, since I am actually going to the convention this weekend, I won't have the time to fix my maps. But please let me know by leaving a comment.

Without further ado, here is the map:

If nothing else, this map is a good indicator of where NDP support is strongest across the country. It goes without saying that endorsements mean very little in the party leadership race. Each endorser has but one vote, and is equal to the endorsement of any other party member, including myself. But, due to the fact it is unlikely the party will release provincial results, this map shows the next best thing.

As I mentioned in my last post about the NDP leadership, BC and Ontario are the most important provinces, with over half of the memberships there. Both provinces are the most eclectic, as all of the major candidates have been able to gain important endorsements there. For the record though, Topp appears to have the edge in BC while Mulcair has the edge in Ontario.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec will also be key provinces. Alberta has been a dead zone for endorsements however, as the party has very few elected politicians there. Saskatchewan is dominated by Topp, Manitoba is an Ashton vs Dewar race, and Quebec will be a wash for Mulcair. Nova Scotia has had a lot of endorsements as well. I wish I had the time to make a Halifax inset on the map, so I apologize for the clutter. But anyways, despite forming government there, the Nova Scotia NDP membership is quite low, and wont be a huge factor this weekend.

Well, I wish I could provide more analysis, but this will have to do for now. I do have to get my rest before I head off to Toronto tomorrow. I will be tweeting from the convention floor, so don't forget to follow me! The first ballot will be tallied Saturday morning. Enjoy the convention, everyone. I know I will!

Toronto--Danforth by-election guide

Riding map.

Tomorrow, residents of Toronto—Danforth will be going to the polls to elect a new Member of Parliament in the first by-election of the 41^st Parliament. The riding has been vacant since last August, upon the death of its last MP, former NDP leader Jack Layton.

Over the last few months, I have done an analysis of the riding's demographics and boundary history. Today, I'll be discussing the last few elections (with maps), as well as a brief synopsis of the candidates, and even a prediction.

The riding under its current boundaries has existed since the last redistribution in 2004. Before that, Toronto--Danforth's boundaries were quite similar, but some of the current riding (the southeast corner) was in the riding of Beaches--East York. Prior to the 2004 election, Toronto--Danforth was represented by Liberal Dennis Mills, while Beaches--East York was represented by Maria Minna. Both had won their previous elections in 2000 quite handily. Mills defeated the NDP's candidate, Paula Turtle, a labour lawyer. Mills won 52% of the vote, while Turtle won 28%. Turtle's only strength was in the Riverdale nieghbourhood. The rest of the riding was dominated by Mills. In 2000, every poll in Beaches--East York, including the part now in Toronto--Danforth was won by Liberal MP Maria Minna. 

2000

The map at left shows the polls where the Liberals (Mills and Minna) won in red, compared to the polls where the NDP won (Turtle) in orange. The map shows the present riding boundaries. The thicker black line shows where the boundary between Toronto--Danforth and Beaches--East York was. 

The map is not shaded, as I just took the information from the Pundit's Guide. However, in the very least it shows the Liberal dominance in the riding at the time, and also shows that the NDP was able to get at least a cluster of polls together in the Broadview area.

2004

In 2003, former Toronto city councillor Jack Layton became leader of the federal N.D.P. No MP stood aside for him to take a seat in the House of Commons. Instead, Layton waited for the 2004 election the following year to try and get elected. Layton chose the riding of Toronto--Danforth to run. The riding had been the strongest in the city for the NDP in the past, and was also the riding that encompassed Layton's former seat on Toronto City Council. Nevertheless, he still had an uphill challenge trying to unseat the popular incumbent, Dennis Mills. 

2004

Layton did manage to eek out a victory in the riding, by a narrow 2,400 vote margin. Layton won 46%, to Mills' 41%. As you can see from the map at left, the riding ended up being quite polarized between the north and the south. 

The south part of the riding was represented by Layton on Toronto City Council, which is probably why his biggest numbers came from that area. Mills had his strongest support in the north part of the riding. Also, Layton won all the polls from the former Beaches--East York riding which hadn't previously been represented by Mills.

Layton's best poll was the one between Bain Ave and Sparkhall Ave. This poll is home to the Bain Avenue Co-op. Mills' best poll was the nearby Riverdale hospital.

2006

By the 2006 election, Layton had now been leader for three years, and the riding became more safe for him. However, the Liberals were eager to take the riding back, as it was the only riding in the city they did not have. To oppose Layton, they looked for a star candidate, and found lawyer Deborah Coyne, who was a member of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada at the time. 

2006

Coyne would not be the strong candidate that Mills was, and couple that with the nation-wide decline of the Liberal Party at the time, she did not pose that much of a threat to Layton. Layton increased his vote total to 48%, while Coyne received 34% of the vote. The margin of victory was over 7,000 votes. 

The Liberal strength in the riding again came from the north. But as you can see, the NDP encroached on this area, relegating most of the Liberal support to the more wealthier polls along the Don River. 

Once again, Layton's best poll was the one between Bain and Sparkhall. The Liberals only got a majority of the vote in two polls. The best Liberal poll was along Torrens Ave between Broadview and Pape, in Pape Village. 

2008 

By the time of the next election in 2008, Layton's seat had become even safer. Liberal fortunes were down even more across the country, and the NDP was up. Layton had been joined in parliament by fellow Toronto MPs Peggy Nash and spouse, Olivia Chow in his caucus, who had each won their elections in 2006. The Liberals tried to challenge Layton again, but they chose a weaker candidate, and put less resources into the race. 

2008

For their candidate, the Liberals chose Andrew Lang, son of former Saskatchewan MP Otto Lang. Lang was the manager of stakeholder relations for the Ontario Chiropractic Association.

Once again, the Liberals would be no match for Layton. The NDP leader once again beat out his Liberal rival by 7,000 votes. However, he did go down in percentage of the popular vote, to 45%. Lang however received 29%, which was also down for the Liberals. These decreased can be attributed the strong Green Party candidacy of Sharon Howarth, who finished 3rd, ahead of the Tories with 13% of the vote. 

The map shows much lighter orange shades for the NDP, as their vote share went down. However, they still picked up polls from the Liberals, whose vote share also went down. The Liberals did pick up some former NDP polls however, including a strong showing in the Broadview neighbourhood, where if you recall, was the only part of the riding the NDP won back in 2000. This is where the increase in the Green support in 2008 hurt the NDP the most. 

The Liberals were relegated to only a handful of polls in their previous strongholds in the north part of the riding. In fact their strongest polls didn't come from the area along the Don River like they had in 2006, but in Greek Town.

The best poll for the NDP in 2008 was not the Bain Ave co-op anymore. The Greens got a sizable percentage of the vote there, which ate into NDP support. The best NDP poll was on the south end of Blake St, which is an impoverished area of the riding. The demographic of this area is not the type to vote Green, and therefore the NDP was not harmed there by the increase in Green support. The strongest Liberal poll was once again the Riverdale Hopital, where they got 50% of the vote.

2011

The 2011 election saw the NDP surge across the country, which vaulted the party into opposition status. Jack Layton's own riding of Toronto--Danforth was not immune to the NDP surge of 2011. Once again, Layton would be opposed by Andrew Lang, who he had beaten in 2008. 

2011

The 2011 election in Toronto--Danforth wasn't even close to being close. Layton defeated Lang by nearly 21,000 votes. He increased his share of the vote to an unprecedented 61% of the vote. Lang on the other hand, received 18% of the vote, barely hanging on to second place. The third place Conservative candidate, Katarina Von Koenig was close behind Lang with 14% of the vote.

The 2011 election map was indicative of the strong result that Layton received. He won every single poll in the riding. His strength was once again in the south of the riding, but he was able to win everywhere. Layton's worst neighbourhoods were in the far north along the Don River, and in Greek Town, two areas of past Liberal strength. 

Layton's strongest poll was once again the Bain Ave co-op, where he won 83% of the vote. Layton's worst poll was in Woodbine Heights, where he got 41% of the vote, but still won it. The Conservatives were strong in the neighbourhood, and nearly won the poll, coming 10 votes short with 36% of the vote.

2011 - 2nd place

 Because Layton won every single poll in 2011, I made a second map showing who finished 2nd in each poll. Note how the Conservatives were strong in those wealthier Don River polls where the Liberals once had strength. The Liberals however were stronger in more ethnic neighbourhoods, like Greek Town. And you will see on the map, one poll coloured Green. Yes, that is the infamous Bain Ave co-op where Layton got 83%, but the Greens were in 2nd place with 8%.

NDP change (2008-2011)

I also made a map showing the change in the NDP vote between 2008 and 2011. The NDP increased their share of the vote in every single polling district between the last two elections. Although, there were some areas that were more averse to switching their votes to NDP than others. Woodbine Heights for example didn't swing that much. Another area is that Blake St poll, where the NDP was so strong, that their vote share had been nearly capped anyways.

2012

And so, we've come to the 2012 by-election. The NDP is still polling relatively well across Canada, depending on which pollster you ask. They have dropped in support since 2011, and with out their fearless leader representing the riding, it is quite likely the NDP will see a decrease in their support from the 61% that Layton got last year.  The NDP is running law professor and human rights lawyer Craig Scott. He is quite a strong candidate, but perhaps not the star candidate one might expect would want to run in such a safe seat. Scott does face weak opposition, though. The Liberals are running Grant Gordon, an advertising executive. The Tories are running Andrew Keyes, a communications consultant. The Greens are running community activist Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu.

The real test for the Liberals will be if they can capitalize on their recent gains in the polls, especially in Ontario. It is not realistic that they will win the riding, but a win for them will be a strong 2nd place showing. The Tories have even less of a shot at the riding, but it would be a huge win for them to overtake the Liberals in 2nd place. They did come close in 2011. The Greens will want to increase their share of the vote from the 6% they got in 2011. A 3rd place showing like they got in 2008 would be a huge victory for the party that has been largely ignored recently.  As for the NDP, it would not be a simple victory for the party to just win the by-election. Anything close would be seen as a loss for the party. Getting a majority of the vote will be important to show that they are still the main left of centre party in Canadian politics. Anything lower than the mid-40s that Layton got in the past (of what the provincial NDP normally gets in this riding) will be seen as a defeat.

Prediction

By-elections are always hard to predict, but at least I will give it a try. Back in February, Forum research released a poll for the riding that showed that the NDP will easily win it, with  61% of the vote (close to Layton's percentage). The Liberals were at 19% and the Tories at 14%. The Greens were at 4% in the poll. These poll numbers nearly mirror the 2011 results in the riding.

So, this brings me to my prediction. I see the NDP range in this riding between 54% (what they got in the provincial election) and 61% (what they got in the federal election). I will average this out and err on the side of the poll, and say the NDP will get 57%. The Tories will probably get 12% of the vote, as they are not as popular as they were in 2011. The Tories have a ceiling of 14% here, and a floor of 6%. I can see the Tories getting less than 14%, if right of centre voters see the Liberals as having any shot of winning this race. The Greens don't often do well in by-elections, and will be looking at probably 4%, where they were at for the 2011 provincial election. There are many independent and other party candidates in the race, and together will probably get 2% of the vote. This leaves the Liberals with 25% of the vote, which seems like a good number. They will be boosted as the only alternative to the NDP, but wont get enough support due to the NDP's inevitability of victory.

So, enjoy the by-election tomorrow, everyone. Polls close at 8:30 PM (Eastern). 

NDP membership maps

The NDP leadership convention is only two weeks away, and so I've decided to do a brief analysis of the party's membership. Updated numbers were released at the beginning of the month, showing the party's membership for each of the 10 provinces and three territories.

The membership deadline for voting in the leadership race was almost a month ago, so the updated figures will be the official figures for the leadership race. Members will be able to vote either online, by mail or at the party's leadership convention.

Totals:

Province / Territory	NDP members	% of population (2011 census)	Members to NDP MP's ratio	NDP 2011 votes to members ratio
Alberta	9800	0.27	9800	24
British Columbia	39859	0.91	3321.6	15.3
Manitoba	11991	0.99	5995.5	10.6
New Brunswick	946	0.13	946	122.4
Newfoundland and Labrador	974	0.19	487	72.8
Nova Scotia	3904	0.42	1301.3	35
Northwest Territories	124	0.3	124	57.6
Nunavut	24	0.08	-	63.5
Ontario	36965	0.29	1760.2	38.3
Prince Edward Island	262	0.19	-	46.3
Quebec	13987	0.18	241.2	116.6
Saskatchewan	11243	1.09	-	13.1
Yukon	747	2.2	-	3.1
Total (including others)	131152	0.39	1298.5	34.4

NDP Membership by province and territory.

 As you can see, over half of all NDP members are in BC and Ontario. This is good for the party, considering it is in those two regions the party needs to grow in order form government. However, the party also needs to worry about keeping strength in Quebec. While membership in Quebec has increased a lot, it is still not going to be a huge factor.

This discrepancy can be shown best through the last two columns on my chart. The third column in my chart shows the ratio of NDP Members to NDP Members of Parliament. Quebec has one NDP Member of Parliament for every 241 members. This is a very low number, second only to the Northwest Territories, which has one MP and a total of 124 members in the entire territory. My next map illustrates this well:

The fourth column shows the ratio of NDP voters in the last federal election to members. One would think that the provinces should be generally equal, but this is not the case. Some provinces' citizens are more likely to want to join a political party than others. Much has been said about how fickle Quebec voters can be, and the chart shows how unwilling they are to commit to the party they overwhelmingly backed in 2011. There are 117 NDP voters for every NDP member in the province. Only New Brunswick was more out of balance. It appears provinces without NDP voting traditions had the most discrepancies. The Yukon has the lowest NDP voter to member ratio. The party has a high membership in the Territory, but had a poor showing in the federal election. It's likely many NDP members didn't even vote for the NDP last May. I have made another map showing the ratio:

The second column in the chart shows the percentage of the population in each region who is an NDP member. Interestingly, the two jurisdictions with the highest percentage of NDP members both have zero NDP Members of Parliament. Over 2% of the population of the Yukon holds an NDP membership (thanks perhaps to a re-invigorated territorial party). And, just over 1% of Saskatchewan holds an NDP membership. The party should be happy about that, especially coming off a poor election result in the Fall, and going four straight federal elections without winning a seat. My next map shows this:

So, there are clearly four tiers of provinces. Ontario and BC have the most influence, with both having over 30,000 members. Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Quebec are the next tier, all with around 10,000 members. Nova Scotia is in a tier of its own, with 4000 members. The rest of the provinces round out the final tier, all of which have less than 1000 members. It is clear that Ontario and BC will be the key provinces to focus on.