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| Current prediction. Toss ups in grey. |
Two recent polls have shown the upstart "Wildrose Party", led by Danielle Smith ahead of the governing Tories. The Wildrose Party is a right wing populist party, that has gone under a number of name changes and mergers since its founding as the Alberta Alliance in 2002. The party had some success, electing one MLA in 2004, but they lost it in the 2008 election. However, the party elected Ms. Smith in 2009 and has been moving up in popular opinion ever since. After a by-election win and a number of floor crossings, the party now is the third largest party in the Alberta legislature with four seats.
A poll released Wednesday by Forum Research showed the Wildrose Party in the lead with 41%, and the Tories in second at 31%. Yesterday, Campaign Research released a poll with similar numbers. Wildrose was at 40% and the Tories at 30%. If these numbers turn out true, the Wildrose Party may be heading for a majority.
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| Riding locations. |
It was these two polls that formed the basis of my first Alberta election prediction. It should be known that predicting this election will be very hard, because the lack of history behind the Wildrose Party. But, we can look at the past successes by such right wing populist movements like the federal Reform Party. It is clear from these numbers that the Wildrose Party will sweep the province, but the question remains, where will the Tories win seats? Who are their strongest incumbents who will be able to withstand the Wildrose surge? Hopefully the campaign will reveal this. If you have any feedback, please let me know. Part of my prediction process is reader input!
Seat by seat prediction
| Riding | PC | WRP | Lib | NDP | Oth | Projected winning candidate |
| Airdrie | 25 | 58 | 6 | 11 | - | Rob Anderson |
| Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater | 41 | 42 | 5 | 12 | - | Travis Olson |
| Banff-Cochrane | 17 | 40 | 28 | 17 | - | Tom Copithorne |
| Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock | 39 | 43 | 7 | 8 | 2 | Link Byfield |
| Battle River-Wainwright | 48 | 42 | 4 | 5 | 1 | Doug Griffiths |
| Bonnyville-Cold Lake | 44 | 46 | 4 | 8 | - | Roy Doonanco |
| Calgary-Acadia | 31 | 54 | 7 | 8 | - | Richard Jones |
| Calgary-Bow | 29 | 48 | 16 | 6 | 1 | Tim Dyck |
| Calgary-Buffalo | 18 | 42 | 32 | 7 | 1 | Mike Blanchard |
| Calgary-Cross | 38 | 44 | 6 | 10 | 2 | Hardyal Mann |
| Calgary-Currie | 19 | 41 | 26 | 7 | 7 | Corrie Adolph |
| Calgary-East | 38 | 46 | 10 | 8 | - | Jesse Minhas |
| Calgary-Elbow | 29 | 43 | 19 | 5 | 4 | James Cole |
| Calgary-Fish Creek | 30 | 53 | 11 | 6 | - | Heather Forsyth |
| Calgary-Foothills | 31 | 45 | 17 | 5 | - | Dustin Nau |
| Calgary-Fort | 32 | 43 | 5 | 17 | 1 | Jeevan Mangat |
| Calgary-Glenmore | 14 | 57 | 22 | 7 | - | Paul Hinman |
| Calgary-Greenway | 28 | 52 | 11 | 9 | - | Ron Leech |
| Calgary-Hawkwood | 22 | 51 | 18 | 7 | 2 | David Yager |
| Calgary-Hays | 32 | 53 | 9 | 6 | - | Wayne Anderson |
| Calgary-Klein | 28 | 48 | 11 | 11 | 2 | Jeremy Nixon |
| Calgary-Lougheed | 36 | 49 | 10 | 5 | - | John Carpay |
| Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill | 31 | 47 | 15 | 6 | 1 | Roy Alexander |
| Calgary-McCall | 22 | 42 | 30 | 6 | - | Grant Galpin |
| Calgary-Mountain View | 9 | 43 | 39 | 8 | 1 | Shane McAllister |
| Calgary-North West | 24 | 57 | 11 | 6 | 2 | Chris Challis |
| Calgary-Northern Hills | 32 | 50 | 12 | 6 | - | Prasad Panda |
| Calgary-Shaw | 35 | 51 | 7 | 6 | 1 | Jeff Wilson |
| Calgary-South East | 34 | 53 | 7 | 6 | - | Bill Jarvis |
| Calgary-Varsity | 19 | 46 | 27 | 6 | 2 | Rob Solinger |
| Calgary-West | 26 | 55 | 12 | 6 | 1 | Andrew Constantinidis |
| Cardston-Taber-Warner | 9 | 80 | 4 | 7 | - | Gary Bikman |
| Chestermere-Rocky View | 28 | 54 | 10 | 8 | - | Bruce McAllister |
| Cypress-Medicine Hat | 28 | 45 | 17 | 10 | - | Drew Barnes |
| Drayton Valley-Devon | 34 | 47 | 9 | 10 | - | Dean Shular |
| Drumheller-Stettler | 34 | 49 | 8 | 9 | - | Rick Strankman |
| Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley | 23 | 59 | 2 | 16 | - | Kelly Hudson |
| Edmonton-Beverly-Clearview | 26 | 28 | 6 | 38 | 2 | Deron Bilous |
| Edmonton-Calder | 23 | 31 | 5 | 41 | - | David Eggen |
| Edmonton-Castle Downs | 38 | 27 | 20 | 12 | 3 | Thomas Lukaszuk |
| Edmonton Centre | 17 | 29 | 31 | 23 | - | Laurie Blakeman |
| Edmonton-Decore | 32 | 31 | 22 | 15 | - | Janice Sarich |
| Edmonton-Ellerslie | 30 | 30 | 17 | 20 | 3 | Naresh Bhardwaj or Jackie Lovely |
| Edmonton-Glenora | 27 | 28 | 23 | 17 | 5 | Don Koziak |
| Edmonton-Gold Bar | 24 | 27 | 29 | 16 | 4 | Josipa Petrunic |
| Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood | 17 | 22 | 4 | 53 | 4 | Brian Mason |
| Edmonton-Manning | 30 | 29 | 14 | 23 | 4 | Peter Sandhu |
| Edmonton-McClung | 34 | 26 | 29 | 8 | 3 | David Xiao |
| Edmonton-Meadowlark | 20 | 28 | 38 | 11 | 3 | Raj Sherman |
| Edmonton-Mill Creek | 39 | 30 | 15 | 16 | - | Gene Zwozdesky |
| Edmonton-Mill Woods | 26 | 32 | 21 | 16 | 5 | Joanne Autio |
| Edmonton-Riverview | 23 | 30 | 35 | 12 | - | Arif Khan |
| Edmonton-Rutherford | 29 | 29 | 26 | 12 | 4 | Fred Horne or Kyle McLeod |
| Edmonton-South West | 37 | 33 | 22 | 8 | - | Matt Jeneroux |
| Edmonton-Strathcona | 13 | 27 | 7 | 53 | - | Rachel Notley |
| Edmonton-Whitemud | 45 | 27 | 18 | 7 | 3 | David Hancock |
| Fort McMurray-Conklin | 33 | 38 | 18 | 10 | - | Doug Faulkner |
| Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo | 30 | 41 | 19 | 10 | - | Guy Boutilier |
| Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville | 41 | 44 | 4 | 10 | 1 | Shannon Stubbs |
| Grande Prairie-Smoky | 36 | 48 | 5 | 11 | - | Todd Loewen |
| Grande Prairie-Wapiti | 40 | 39 | 9 | 12 | - | Wayne Drysdale |
| Highwood | 23 | 61 | 7 | 9 | - | Danielle Smith |
| Innisfail-Sylvan Lake | 30 | 49 | 8 | 12 | 1 | Kerry Towle |
| Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills | 36 | 42 | 10 | 12 | - | Shayne Saskiw |
| Lacombe-Ponoka | 39 | 44 | 8 | 9 | - | Rod Fox |
| Leduc-Beaumont | 37 | 43 | 9 | 9 | 2 | David Stasiewich |
| Lesser Slave Lake | 35 | 43 | 13 | 9 | - | Darryl Boisson |
| Lethbridge-East | 14 | 41 | 33 | 12 | - | Kent Prestage |
| Lethbridge-West | 13 | 42 | 29 | 16 | - | Kevin Kinahan |
| Little Bow | 23 | 61 | 6 | 10 | - | Ian Donovan |
| Livingstone-Macleod | 29 | 48 | 11 | 11 | 1 | Pat Stier |
| Medicine Hat | 15 | 45 | 28 | 11 | 1 | Blake Pedersen |
| Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills | 27 | 61 | 4 | 8 | - | Bruce Rowe |
| Peace River | 33 | 44 | 7 | 16 | - | Alan Forsyth |
| Red Deer-North | 29 | 45 | 15 | 10 | 1 | Randy Weins |
| Red Deer-South | 26 | 44 | 20 | 9 | 1 | Nathan Stephan |
| Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre | 34 | 53 | 5 | 8 | - | Joe Anglin |
| Sherwood Park | 33 | 36 | 18 | 7 | 6 | Garnett Genius |
| Spruce Grove-St. Albert | 33 | 33 | 21 | 7 | - | Doug Horner or Travis Hughes |
| St. Albert | 26 | 38 | 28 | 7 | 1 | James Burrows |
| Stony Plain | 34 | 47 | 11 | 8 | - | Hal Tagg |
| Strathcona-Sherwood Park | 43 | 37 | 13 | 8 | - | Dave Quest |
| Strathmore-Brooks | 40 | 46 | 5 | 9 | - | Alex Wychopen |
| Vermilion-Lloydminster | 36 | 53 | 4 | 7 | - | Danny Hozack |
| West Yellowhead | 23 | 36 | 17 | 14 | 10 | Stuart Taylor |
| Wetaskiwin-Camrose | 40 | 45 | 6 | 10 | 1 | Trevor Miller |
| Whitcourt-Ste. Anne | 31 | 56 | 5 | 8 | | Maryann Chichak |
This projection reduces the Tories to nine seats (plus three ties). All but four are tossups, within 5% of the next best party. The NDP would double its seat total to four, while the Liberals would also win 4. However, all but one are toss ups. This leaves the Wildrose Party at a whopping 67 seats (plus three ties). A significant number of these are still toss ups however, that can go back to the Tories if they gain any ground.
I should also mention that I am working on getting the redistributed numbers from the 2008 election, as Alberta redistributed their riding boundaries since then. Some of the figures in this chart are based on redistributed numbers, and some are estimates for the time being.
This wraps up part one of my projection. Part 2 will look at the election more in depth, and will also look at some key races. I hope to post part 2 in the coming days.
Interesting predictions and not half bad. I think your prediction of Redford losing her seat is a little bold but I like it. I realize she had less than half in 2008, but it was a tough race against Craig Cheffins, being the Premier in an extremely red tory riding might make her tough to dislodge.
ReplyDeleteI'm also curious did you factor in where the Wildrose Alliance did well in 2004 in places where they failed to run a candidate in 2008? They had some strong second places in the 2004 campaign.
I had the Wildrose Alliance pegged at a ceiling of 55 seats before the writ was dropped based on intuition before the poll numbers started moving
I also have a prediction that Raj Sherman could start pulling Red Tories who had moved to Allison back to the Liberals. If he moves even 5 to 9% of his vote back it could crater the PC vote completely.
Yes, I do have Redford losing her seat, but I could be off base there. What makes you suggest that her riding is "Red Tory"? Is there a certain demographic there?
ReplyDeleteYes, I did factor in the 2004 Alliance results. They did do well in some ridings that they didn't even have candidates in '08 for.
I'm glad I wasn't too off base with Sherman winning. Wasn't too sure about him, but my reasoning was the same as yours.
Great Work, i think its going to be hard to gage WR; It will be like the NDP with PQ in the federal election. Polls are all over the map too... some with the PC ahead other with WR. If were looking for a comparison year it would be 1971 when the PCs swept the SoCreds out. If the PCs pick up some in the polls we might have an odd Centre Right-Right minority...
ReplyDeleteWith no base we can only assume that WR will hold the seats then have from floor crossers. Redford has a problem, there is very little room on the "moderate" side to grow and i honeslty think it was a mistake by the PCs not to have a leader who was more Right of centre for this very reason we are seeing now. Plus Smith is attractive... so there goes the male vote.
Edmonton is going to be rediculous to predict and i see your seeing that... if the PCs tank the moderate votes (LiB, NDP) might bolt to her... or might bolt the otherway "real" progressive parties. I think your right the NDP is likely to have 4-6 seats; liberals 2-4 (i think they will take a huge hit)
After looking at today's abacus data poll, Elbow could very well be a Wildrose Alliance pickup and I think the rest of Calgary could be a landslide. They hit 50% support in Calgary and its certainly showing on the ground in the lawn sign war.
ReplyDeleteWay to go WILDROSE. Keep up the hard work . PC hardly to do anything in the past to win. This time it will be different.
DeleteThe Abacus poll just confirms the Wildrose momentum. If they keep it up, they might be able to wipe the PCs off the map.
ReplyDeleteIf the Wildrose had a better leader I would consider them. But not with Danielle Smith. She has no children!
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
DeleteWhat does children have to do with being a political leader? Oh yeah, nothing.
DeleteEarl's comment above betrays his bias.
ReplyDeleteI try to be as accurate as possible with my predictions, whether they go against my political leanings or not. I may disagree with Ms. Smith's politics, but I do think it's nice to see a refreshing new face and a new party on the scene in Alberta. I wish her, and all the parties the best of luck. I know my party won't win anyways ;-)
ReplyDeleteIt is interesting that you mention the lawn sign war. In Calgary East, hands down Moe Amery the PC candidate has swept the area with signs. The Wildrose candidate, Jasvir (Jesse) Minhas, only has signs on public property. Driving through Marlborough, for example, you will see literally 25 signs in a row, some one house after the other, without a single Wildrose sign.
ReplyDeleteThis is the same throughout the riding.
I think most people in Calgary East would be very surprised to see Amery lose--he seems very popular there.
Maybe a Wildrose landslide of the whole city might sweep him away, but in anything approaching a close race, name recognition and a well oiled machine will put Amery over the top.
What have you done with the undecided vote. My political instincts tell me there are a lot of voters out there who will be influenced by the campaign.
ReplyDeleteRegarding Sherman - nobody is commenting on his hollow campaigning. Since crossing the floor all he has done is complain, without offering any practical solutions. He admitts he's a one issue candidate which does not make much of a platform. Even people who vote by habbit will have a hard time supporting Liberals
The Liberals do appear to be tanking it, I agree. As for the undecideds, I'm ignoring them for the time being. We won't know how they'll go until the election.
ReplyDeleteOh, and I appreciate the comments everyone, but please stop with the personal attacks :)
When can we expect an update on your numbers?
ReplyDeleteWorking on an update now :)
ReplyDeleteGreat job Earl
ReplyDeleteLooking forward to seeing it.Thanks for doing this
ReplyDelete