Manitoba election 2011 final prediction

Manitoba goes to the polls today, and so it's time for my final projection. There has been just one poll since my last projection, released by Angus Reid just yesterday. It showed basically the same numbers as the Probe Research poll I used to do my last numbers. The NDP is still at 46%, and the Tories are still at 43%. The only difference is that the Liberals are up 1%, to 8% while the Greens are down 1% to 3%. As such, not much has changed with this prediction, except some changes to the "toss ups", as I made predictions as to who I think will win that were contrary to my last prediction. 

Riding	NDP	PC	Lib	Grn	Oth	Projected winner
Agassiz	27	67	7	4	-	Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden	16	79	5	-	-	Larry Maguire
Assiniboia	58	36	4	2	-	Jim Rondeau
Brandon East	45	43	6	6	-	Drew Caldwell
Brandon West	43	52	5	-	0	Reg Hellwer
Burrows	67	28	4	1	0	Melanie Wight
Charleswood	26	63	7	4	-	Myrna Driedger
Concordia	68	26	4	2	-	Matt Wiebe
Dauphin	47	45	4	4	-	Stan Struthers
Dawson Trail	38	57	5	-	-	Laurent Tetrault
Elmwood	60	26	11	3	-	Jim Maloway
Emerson	17	67	16	-	-	Cliff Graydon
Flin Flon	65	25	8	2	-	Clarence Petterson
Fort Garry-Riverview	58	27	12	3	-	James Allum
Fort Richmond	55	33	11	1	-	Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Rouge	47	24	25	4	-	Jennifer Howard
Fort Whyte	30	64	6	-	-	Hugh McFadyen
Gimli	50	42	5	3	-	Peter Bjornson
Interlake	49	47	4	-	0	Tom Nevakshonoff
Kewatinook	54	40	5	1	-	Eric Robinson
Kildonan	61	35	4	-	-	Dave Chomiak
Kirkfield Park	46	46	5	3	-	Kelly de Groot
La Verendrye	25	67	5	2	-	Dennis Smook
Lac du Bonnet	22	69	7	2	-	Wayne Ewasko
Lakeside	31	61	5	3	-	Ralph Eichler
Logan	60	22	14	4	0	Flor Marcelino
Midland	20	69	11	-	-	Blaine Pederson
Minto	62	20	11	5	2	Andrew Swan
Morden-Winkler	9	83	6	-	-	Cameron Friesen
Morris	29	64	7	-	-	Mavis Taillieu
Point Douglas	58	30	8	2	2	Kevin Chief
Portage La Prairie	38	54	8	-	-	Ian Wishart
Radisson	57	39	4	-	-	Bidhu Jha
Riding Mountain	31	64	6	4	-	Leanne Rowat
Riel	59	34	7	-	-	Christine Melnick
River East	44	51	4	1	-	Bonnie Mitchelson
River Heights	25	34	39	2	-	Jon Gerrard
Rossmere	50	44	4	2	-	Erna Braun
Seine River	58	35	7	-	-	Theresa Oswald
Selkirk	49	45	6	-	-	Greg Dewar
Southdale	46	50	4	-	-	Judy Eastman
Spruce Woods	20	71	9	-	-	Cliff Cullen
St. Boniface	65	24	8	3	-	Greg Selinger
St. James	49	43	4	4	-	Deanne Cruthers
St. Johns	63	30	4	3	-	Gord Mackintosh
St. Norbert	37	55	8	-	-	Karen Velthuys
St. Paul	30	59	9	-	-	Ron Schuler
St. Vital	64	31	5	-	-	Nancy Allan
Steinbach	7	88	5	-	-	Kevin Goertzen
Swan River	47	48	4	-	-	Dave Powell
The Maples	52	38	9	1	-	Mohinder Saran
The Pas	71	25	4	-	-	Frank Whitehead
Thompson	67	18	15	-	-	Steve Ashton
Transcona	66	30	4	-	-	Daryl Reid
Tuxedo	33	52	13	2	-	Heather Stefanson
Tyndall Park	67	23	9	1	-	Ted Marcelino
Wolseley	65	17	6	12	-	Rob Altemeyer

Predicting the toss ups

Brandon East

My last projection gave the Tories the edge here, but provincially, this riding is still safe NDP territory. The riding has voted NDP in every election since it was created in 1969. While the region is trending Tory, I don't expect it to go PC quite yet- at least not while the NDP is running an incumbent in Drew Caldwell. He won comfortably in 2007 by 1,000 votes.

Dauphin

Dauphin is another long time NDP riding. It has been represented by the NDP in every election since 1981. This riding I had the Tories ahead in my last projection, but I'm not quite ready to say that, although it will be close with the Tories trending up here.

Interlake

Interlake is yet another rural Manitoba riding with a long NDP history. The NDP has won the region in every election since 1969. In the last election, the NDP won the seat by 1,600 votes, but the riding's boundary changes since then has made the seat more Tory friendly. I still don't think it will be enough for the Tories to win, however.

Kirkfield Park

Before the NDP finally won this seat in 2007, Kirkfield Park had elected the Tories for 30 years. This is one of those suburban Winnipeg seats that went to the new NDP of Gary Doer. While the NDP is up in Winnipeg, it's seats like Kirkfield Park the Tories will be targeting, and I think in this case they will prove successful in getting this riding back.

River Heights

The Liberals are in danger here of losing there one and only riding. The Liberal vote is expected to half across the city, and the Tories are up, and will be targeting this affluent riding in the centre of the riding. The Tories are also benefited from the fact that the new boundaries make this riding less Liberal friendly. However, with the Liberals putting all of their eggs in this basket, they should be able to keep it.

Selkirk

Selkirk has not voted Tory ever, since being created in 1957. While the area is trending towards the Tories, I don't think they are quite there yet. The NDP won here comfortably by 1600 votes in 2007. They should be able to win it again although it will be close. This riding has lost some of its NDP areas after redistribution.

Southdale

Until they won it in 2007, the NDP had not been able to take this area of Winnipeg since 1966. It's a traditionally Tory area that the NDP was able to win last election by 1200 votes. However, the riding has lost some NDP friendly neighbourhoods, and the Tories will be targeting it. They should be able ot pick it up.

Swan River

Swan River is an historically Tory riding that has voted NDP since 1990. It is currently an open seat. The NDP won the seat by 1,600 votes in 2007, but without the power of incumbency, are vulnerable here. I had previously thought the NDP was strong enough to keep this riding, but I think the Tories may just win it, strengthened by a depleted NDP in rural Manitoba, and the fact that the riding has lost some NDP areas.

Seat changes / conclusion

The only seat changes projected from my last prediction are the one's discussed above. Basically, I have the NDP picking up Brandon East, Dauphin and Selkirk, while I have the Tories picking up Kirkfield Park, Southdale and Swan River. There is no net change from last time. And so, I predict yet another NDP majority government in Manitoba.