Ontario election 2011 prediction (September 13)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith.

Four more polls have been released since my last prediction on September 2. What they are beginning to show is that the Liberals have now overtaken the Tories for top spot in the province. Usually when the Liberals gain in the polls, it comes at the expense of the NDP, but the NDP and the Tories are holding firm in their numbers, and the Liberal gain appears to come from a collapse in the Green vote.

This projection will only look at the two most recent polls taken this past weekend. One by Nanos Research and one by Ipsos Reid:

	Nanos	Ipsos-Reid	Avg	Change
Liberal	38 (+6)	38 (+2)	38	(+8)
PC	35 (-1)	37 (-1)	36	n/c
NDP	24 (+1)	24 (+1)	24	-1
Greens	3 (-1)	1 (-2)	2	-5

The change is from their most recent polls, Nanos just 2 weeks ago (Aug 30-Sept 1) while the Ipsos-Reid poll change is from their last poll, six weeks ago. The Avg is the number used for my projection, while the change is from the numbers used in my last projection on September 2.

The public appears to be scared of the possibility of Hudak government, but NDP supporters seem enthusiastic about the party's high poll numbers not to jump ship. The non existent Green campaign has therefore resulted in their voters fleeing to the Liberals. Or so I can only guess! The current Liberal surge comes as a bit of a surprise to me, but then again, McGuinty pulled it off in 2007.

As mentioned, I skipped two polls from 2 weeks ago. One was a Nanos poll, and one was by Harris Decimawhich showed an unbelievable 11 point lead for the Liberals. Methinks it's an outlier.

Seat by seat projection

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Projected winner
Ajax—Pickering	46	38	13	3	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	40	16	42	2	Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	37	43	17	3	Donna Skelly
Barrie	29	48	19	4	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	25	18	50	7	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	44	28	27	1	Kuldip Kular
Brampton West	45	39	15	1	Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale	45	35	18	2	Linda Jeffrey
Brant	45	33	21	1	Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	30	48	15	7	Bill Walker
Burlington	33	47	18	2	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	28	46	24	2	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	37	48	13	2	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	31	44	23	2	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	38	12	48	2	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	46	30	23	1	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	49	39	9	3	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	27	50	11	12	Sylvia Jones
Durham	30	48	19	3	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	53	37	9	1	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	29	48	22	1	Jeff Yurek
Essex	27	39	33	1	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	50	36	13	1	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	51	26	22	1	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	44	35	18	3	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	40	44	14	2	Marlissa Gosselin
Guelph	48	29	15	8	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	24	60	15	1	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	37	47	13	3	Laurie Scott
Halton	37	47	15	1	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	26	19	51	4	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	29	29	41	1	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	33	28	38	1	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	42	36	21	1	Carol Mitchell
Kenora—Rainy River	32	30	37	1	Sarah Campbell
Kingston and the Islands	47	30	21	2	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	45	33	20	2	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	38	42	18	2	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	32	47	18	3	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	42	39	18	1	Maria Van Bommel
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	35	43	19	3	Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville	27	55	15	3	Steve Clark
London North Centre	44	29	23	4	Deb Matthews
London West	49	32	18	1	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	38	30	31	1	Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville	50	30	19	1	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	50	33	16	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	47	41	11	1	Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South	46	37	16	1	Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	45	39	15	1	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	47	37	14	2	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	33	49	14	4	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	37	47	13	3	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	45	36	17	2	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	24	55	19	2	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	28	20	51	1	France Gelinas
Nipissing	37	46	16	1	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	42	37	19	2	Lou Rinaldi
Oak Ridges—Markham	41	43	15	1	Farid Wassef
Oakville	46	40	12	2	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	20	43	36	1	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	34	21	40	5	Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South	49	31	17	3	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	44	37	17	2	Bob Chiarelli
Ottawa—Orleans	49	37	12	1	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	48	23	25	4	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	27	52	19	2	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	29	15	52	4	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	22	49	22	7	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	43	40	14	3	John Wilkinson
Peterborough	44	30	24	2	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	47	34	17	2	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	40	38	21	1	Leona Dombrowsky
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	21	66	12	1	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	45	38	15	2	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	44	35	19	2	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	46	29	20	5	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	26	46	27	1	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	54	17	28	1	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	45	29	25	1	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	42	24	32	2	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	53	28	18	1	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	43	31	25	1	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	48	22	29	1	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	27	53	16	4	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	24	55	14	7	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	31	52	16	1	Jim McDonnell
Sudbury	52	15	32	1	Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill	36	53	10	1	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	33	24	42	1	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	44	13	42	1	Michael Gravelle
Timikaming—Cochrane	36	18	45	1	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	30	23	46	1	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	47	21	27	5	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	29	12	53	6	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	35	15	46	4	Rasario Marchese
Vaughan	54	34	11	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	27	33	39	1	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	29	56	11	4	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	28	49	20	3	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	46	37	15	2	David Zimmer
Windsor West	27	25	47	1	Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh	45	25	29	1	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	44	41	14	1	Monte Kwinter
York South—Weston	42	15	42	1	Paul Ferriera or Laura Albanese
York West	54	17	28	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	27	53	17	3	Julia Munro

Seat changes since last projection

I'd like to firstly thank those who emailed me or commented on my last blog post, their thoughts on a few ridings. I have incorporated many of your observations. One riding (Glengarry—Prescott—Russell) flipped from the Liberals to the Tories because of one such email I received. Keep them coming!

All of the other riding changes benefited the Liberals. This projection shows them gaining 18 seats (a net of 17): Ajax—Pickering, Brampton West, Brampton—Springdale, Brant, Etobicoke—Lakeshore, Huron—Bruce, London—Fanshawe, Mississauga South, Mississauga—Brampton South, Mississauga—Erindale, Niagara Falls, Northumberland—Quinte West, Oakville, Ottawa West—Nepean, Ottawa—Orleans, Richmond Hill, Scarborough Southwest and Willowdale. All were too close to call in my last projection. The Tories meanwhile have lost Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Oak Ridges—Markham and Prince Edward—Hastings to “too close to call”, while the NDP has lost Algoma—Manitoulin, Thunder Bay—Superior North and York South—Weston also to “too close to call”.

Conclusion

Despite a narrow lead in the polls, the Liberals are on the cusp of a majority government. The projection shows them winning 53 seats (with 5 of those too close to call). The are tied with the NDP in one seat (York South—Weston). If they were to win that tied seat, they would get the majority needed of 54. The Liberal maximum however is at just 56- a narrow majority. That's if they win Algoma—Manitoulin and Oak Ridges—Markham which are both too close to call, but are leaning to the NDP and the Tories respectively.

The huge seat change can be attributed to the large number of seats which are within a close range of each other. A small swing in the vote in favour of the Liberals benefited them greatly in the projection. However, the seat change came mostly from previously too close to call races, and therefore did not eat into the core Tory and NDP seats much. 

Methodology/disclaimer

I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.