Ontario election 2011 prediction (August 11)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

Another Ontario poll has been released, and that means an update to my projection. Ipsos-Reid released a poll yesterday that was taken over the August long weekend. It shows very different numbers from what we saw earlier in the Summer.

The Liberals are up 7 points from the previous Ipsos-Reid poll taken in June, and are now at 36%. They are in a statistical tie with the Tories who are at 38%, down four points. The NDP is at 23%, up 1% from the last Ipsos-Reid poll, but down 1% from the last Forum Research poll taken a few days prior. The Greens are down to just 3% from 5%.

This means a lot has changed in my projection. Most of the ridings I have projected a large Liberal increase in the vote, mostly at the expense of the Greens. Included in my projection this time around will be the projected winning candidate.

Riding	Lib	PC	NDP	Grn	Projected winning candidate
Ajax—Pickering	45	39	12	4	Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin	36	19	42	3	Mike Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale	36	44	16	4	Donna Skelly
Barrie	27	50	18	5	Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York	21	22	50	7	Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton	42	30	26	2	Kuldip Kular
Brampton West	43	41	14	2	Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale	43	37	17	3	Linda Jeffrey
Brant	43	35	20	2	Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound	26	50	15	9	Bill Walker
Burlington	31	49	17	3	Jane McKenna
Cambridge	27	48	22	3	Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills	35	49	12	3	Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex	29	46	22	3	Rick Nicholls
Davenport	38	11	48	3	Jonah Schein
Don Valley East	44	32	22	2	Michael Coteau
Don Valley West	47	41	9	3	Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon	25	52	10	13	Sylvia Jones
Durham	28	50	18	4	John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence	49	37	12	2	Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London	27	50	21	2	Jeff Yurek
Essex	25	41	32	2	Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre	48	38	12	2	Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North	50	27	21	2	Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore	42	37	17	4	Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell	48	37	12	3	Grant Crack
Guelph	45	31	15	8	Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk	23	62	13	2	Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock	36	48	12	4	Laurie Scott
Halton	35	49	14	2	Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre	25	20	50	5	Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek	27	31	40	2	Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain	33	27	38	2	Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce	40	38	20	2	Carol Mitchell
Kenora—Rainy River	30	33	36	2	TBD
Kingston and the Islands	44	32	21	3	John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre	43	34	20	3	John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga	38	42	17	3	Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo	31	47	18	4	Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex	40	41	17	2	Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington	33	45	18	4	Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville	25	58	13	4	Steve Clark
London North Centre	42	31	22	5	Deb Matthews
London West	47	34	17	2	Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe	34	31	33	2	Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville	48	33	17	2	Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville	48	36	15	1	Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South	45	43	10	2	Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South	45	39	15	1	Amrit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale	43	41	14	2	Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville	46	38	13	3	Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton	32	52	13	3	Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora	35	49	12	4	Frank Klees
Niagara Falls	43	38	16	3	Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook	22	58	17	3	Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt	27	20	51	2	France Gelinas
Nipissing	36	47	15	2	Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West	40	39	18	3	Lou Rinaldi
Oak Ridges—Markham	39	45	14	2	Farid Wassef
Oakville	46	40	11	3	Kevin Flynn
Oshawa	18	45	35	2	Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre	33	22	41	4	Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South	48	33	16	3	Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean	42	39	16	3	Bob Chiarelli
Ottawa—Orleans	47	40	11	2	Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier	46	26	24	4	Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford	25	54	18	3	Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park	27	15	53	4	Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka	20	52	20	8	Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington	41	39	16	4	John Wilkinson
Peterborough	42	33	22	3	Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East	46	35	16	3	Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings	38	41	19	2	Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke	20	67	11	2	John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill	44	39	14	3	Reza Moridi
St. Catharines	42	37	18	3	Jim Bradley
St. Paul's	45	31	19	5	Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton	24	48	26	2	Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie	52	20	27	1	David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre	43	31	24	2	Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest	40	26	31	3	Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt	51	32	16	1	Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood	41	33	25	1	Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River	56	22	21	1	Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North	25	55	15	5	Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey	23	56	13	8	Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry	29	55	15	1	Jim McDonell
Sudbury	50	17	31	2	Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill	35	54	9	2	Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan	33	25	41	1	Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North	42	14	42	2	Michael Gravelle or Steve Mantis
Timikaming—Cochrane	34	20	45	1	John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay	29	25	45	1	Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre	46	22	27	5	Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth	27	13	53	7	Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina	33	16	47	4	Rosario Marchese
Vaughan	53	36	10	1	Greg Sorbara
Welland	25	34	39	2	Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills	27	58	10	5	Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa	26	51	19	4	Christine Elliott
Willowdale	45	38	14	3	David Zimmer
Windsor West	25	26	48	2	Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh	43	26	29	2	Dwight Duncan
York Centre	43	43	13	1	Monte Kwinter or Michael Mostyn
York South—Weston	40	17	41	2	Paul Ferreira
York West	53	18	28	1	Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe	25	55	16	4	Julia Munro

Conclusion
Despite still trailing in the popular vote, the Liberals would win a minority government in my current projection. This is a huge turnaround from a month ago. The reason for this is because my projection shows the Liberals winning more seats by small margins than the Tories at this point in time. The Tories have a lot of their vote "wasted" in rural ridings, where they are projected to rack up massive majorities, while the Liberals are still only projected to win a majority of the vote in a handful of seats.

The Liberals have secured this projected lead by retaking many of the ridings they were projected to lose in the "905 belt", and are now projected to shutout the Tories in Mississauga, Brampton and Toronto (except for one tie in York Centre). Meanwhile, the Liberals are now projected to win many of their rural seats- at least in ridings where they still have incumbents. Most of those seats are still toss ups, however.

Presently, the Liberal's minimum seat total (42) is still below the Tory maximum (49), meaning that a Tory minority government is still possible. The Liberal maximum is 55, which also happens to be one more seat  than what is needed to win a majority government. The NDP slight decline in this poll (compared to the Forum Research poll) means a projected decrease in two seats from my last projection.The NDP maximum is 20, down 1 from last time.

Party	Projected seat totals (toss ups included in table)	Change from last projection	Projected seat totals (toss ups excluded from table)
	42	+15	50
	35	-7	37
	16	-2	18
Toss ups*	14	-6	2 (ties)

*Toss ups indicate projections closer than 3%.