Provincial by-elections next week (Fort Whyte, Kitchener-Waterloo, Vaughan)

Next week along witth the Quebec election, there will be three provincial by-elections across Canada. On Tuesday, the same day as the Quebec election, voters in the riding of Fort Whyte in Manitoba will be heading to the polls while on Thursday voters in Kitchener—Waterloo and Vaughan, Ontario will be heading to the polls. Before I make my final Quebec prediction on Monday or Tuesday, I should do a wrap up of these by-elections.

Fort Whyte, Manitoba

Poll map being used in the by-election.
Note: boundaries differ from the 2011 election.

This suburban riding located on the southwestern edge of Winnipeg is being vacated by out-going former PC leader Hugh McFadyen who had announced following his party's defeat in the 2011 provincial election that he would be stepping down as leader. And now, he is stepping down as MLA as well.

Fort Whyte is the safest Tory seat in the city. McFadyen won the riding in 2011 with 62% of the vote. He won all but 2 polls, which were ties with the NDP candidate. The riding has a short history, having only been created in 1999 from Fort Garry and from Tuxedo. Its creation can be attributed to the fact that it is made up mostly of newer homes, and it continues to grow with development in the southern part of the riding. It is also the second wealthiest riding in the province.

Ever since its creation, the riding has been a safe PC seat. It was held by John Lowen from 1999 to 2005 and by McFadyen ever since. The Tories normally get 50-60% of the vote here, while the NDP usually gets less than 30% of the vote. The Liberals usually get around 10-20%. There appears to be about 10% of the vote that swings between the Liberals and the PCs depending on their campaigns.

Federally, the riding is mostly located in the riding of Winnipeg South. A small part of the northern extremity of Fort Whyte is found in the riding of Winnipeg South Centre. Much like the provincial Tories, the federal Conservative part dominates this area as well.

While Fort Whyte is politically fairly homogenous, it is divided into two distinct parts based on its history. The northern half of the riding is part of the former municipality of Tuxedo, while the southern half is from the former municipality of Fort Garry. Both were amalgamated into Winnipeg in 1972, but are still very distinct parts of the city. When Fort Whyte was created, its two previous ridings were also Fort Garry and Tuxedo. The wealthy Tuxedo riding was the safest Tory seat in the city, and was represented by former Manitoba Premier Gary Filmon from its creation in 1981 until 2000, after Fort Whyte was split off from the riding. Fort Garry was also very Tory. Before Fort Whyte was created, Fort Garry had only not voted Tory once, in 1988 when it went Liberal.

Fort Garry MLAs (1958-1999)

S. R. Lyon, Prog. Cons. (1958-1969)

L. R. Sherman, Prog. Cons. (1969-1984)
C. T. Birt, Prog. Cons. (1984-1988)

L. E. Evans, Liberal (1988-1990)
Ms. Rosemary Vodrey, Prog. Cons. (1990-1999)

Looking ahead to Tuesday's by-election, it is clear that the Tories will win the seat. They are running their currently seat-less leader, former MP Brian Pallister in the riding. There has only been on province-wide poll since the 2011 election, and it showed that not much has changed in the province. That means, Pallister should easily win a seat in the Legislative Assembly. The NDP's sacrificial lamb in the seat is Brandy Schmidt, the current community engagement manager for the Multiple Sclerosis Society in Manitoba. The Liberals are running Bob Axworthy, brother of former federal cabinet minister Lloyd Axworthy.

Meanwhile, in Ontario...

And now for the more important races next week (sorry, Manitoba). The reason the Ontario by-elections are so important are because the fate of the entire government hangs on them. Do you remember the results of the 2011 provincial election? The Liberals won a minority government, missing out on a majority by one seat. That's why these two by-elections are so important. Come Friday morning, Ontarians might wake up to a Liberal majority government with most Ontarians not even going to the polls. The Liberals have to win both Vaughan and Kitchener—Waterloo to get their majority, since one of those seats (Kitchener—Waterloo) voted for an opposition MPP last year. However, polls show that they are at risk of losing both seats. Kitchener—Waterloo

Kitchener-Waterloo results by poll (2011 provincial election)

The first vacancy was announced back in April when it was announced that PC MPP Elizabeth Witmer had been named the head of the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board. Liberals were licking their lips at that announcement, as Witmer was seen as someone whose name carried more weight than her party in the riding. Kitchener—Waterloo is more of a swing riding, and would probably have gone Liberal in 2011 if it had not been for Witmer. And that's why the Liberals were so happy to see her go. Out of all the Tory or NDP held seats in the province, Kitchener—Waterloo is seen as the most likely to go Liberal in a by-election.

However, the Liberals picking up this seat is nothing from certain. A Forum Research poll from earlier in August  showed the Liberals tied with the NDP at 30%, behind the Tories who were at 34%. Still, anyone's ball game.

Riding profile

Despite its name, the riding is mostly centred on the City of Waterloo, with only a small chunk lying in Kitchener. The riding has swung back in forth between the Liberals and the Tories, but has mostly leaned towards the Liberals since confederation. Witmer has held the riding for the last 22 years however, being first elected in 1990. Before that Liberal Herb Epp held the seat for 13 years.

MPPs:

1) Moses Springer, Liberal (1867-1881)
2) E.W.B Snider, Liberal (1881-1894)
3) A.B. Robertson, Liberal (1894-1898)
4) H.G. Lackner, Conservative (1898)
5) L.J. Bretihaupt, Liberal (1899-1902)
6) H.G. Lackner, Conservative (1902-1912) 2^nd time7) C.H. Mills, Conservative (1912-1919)
8) Nicholas Asmussen, Ind. Liberal (1919-1923)
9) W.G. Weichel, Conservative (1923-1929)
10) S.C. Tweed, Liberal (1929-1934)
11) Nicholas Asmussen, Liberal (1934-1937), 2^nd time
12) J.A. Smith, Liberal (1937-1943)
13) J.H. Cook, CCF (1943-1945)
14) J.I. Meinzinger, Lib-Lab./Ind. (1945-1948)
15) J.G. Brown, Liberal (1948-1951)
16) S.F. Leavine, Prog. Cons. (1951-1955)
17) J.J. Wintermeyer, Liberal (1955-1963)
18) K.E. Butler, Prog. Cons. (1963-1967)
19) E.R. Good, Liberal (1967-1977)
20) H.A. Epp, Liberal (1977-1990)
21) Ms. Elizabeth Witmer, Prog. Cons. (1990-2012)

Both federally and provincially, the riding is fairly polarized. Recent elections on both levels have been somewhat close between the Liberals and the Tories, both getting around 40%. The NDP routinely gets around 15%. The NDP vote has been said to be lower than expected for a riding of this demographic due to left of centre voters voting Liberal.

The Liberals are the strongest in the central part of the riding, which is around the Waterloo Downtown area as well as the University of Waterloo. The Tory support is concentrated on the fringes of the riding, both north, east and west. The NDP normally wins a hand full of polls, on the Kitchener side of the riding close to that city's downtown.

Looking ahead to the by-election, there is likely to be a 3-way fight, if that Forum poll is to be believed. All three parties have high stakes going into the election. The Tories are running businesswoman Tracey Weiler who hopes to keep the riding in Tory hands, and out of the Liberals. The Liberals hope to get their majority on the back of lawyer Eric Davis. The NDP hopes to surprise many by picking up the riding for the first time in its history (2^nd time if you count the CCF) with their candidate, school trustee Catherine Fife.

Vaughan

Vaughan election results by poll (2011 provincial election)

Vaughan is a sprawling suburban riding located north of Toronto. Vaughan is a heavily Italian riding and very Catholic (77%). For most of its history it has been a safe Liberal seat, and is the most likely to go Liberal of the two by-elections. The Forum poll from last month showed the Liberals ahead by 11 points, but an earlier poll showed the Tories ahead by one point. The NDP meanwhile is not running a serious campaign there. While the seat has been a safe Liberal one on the provincial scene, federally it has turned into a safe Tory seat. That means a Tory win on Thursday might not be that much of a surprise.

The seat was vacated when Liberal Greg Sorbara, Ontario's former Finance Minister resigned. He had held the seat from 1985 to 1995 and since 2001. Since then, he had regularly won the riding by large amounts.

MPPs:

1) Jn. McMurrich, Liberal (1867-1871)
2) Alfred Boultbee, Conservative (1871-1874)
3) J.H. Widdifield, Liberal (1875-1888)
4) E.J. Davis, Liberal (1888-1904)
5) T.H. Lennox, Conservative (1905-1923)
6) Wm. Keith, Conservative (1923-1926)

7) P.W. Pearson, Liberal (1926-1929)
8) Clifford Case, Conservative (1929-1934)
9) Morgan Baker, Liberal (1934-1943)

10) G.H. Mitchell, CCF (1943-1945)
11) A.A. MacKenzie, Prog. Cons. (1945-1967)
12) W.M.C. Hodgson, Prog. Cons. (1967-1985)
13) G.S. Sorbara, Liberal (1985-1995)

14) Al Palladini, Prog. Cons. (1995-2001)

15) G.S. Sorbara, Liberal (2001-2012), 2^nd time

Vaughan is a huge riding in terms of population. The last census recorded the population of the riding at 196,000 – almost twice the size of an average riding in Ontario. It covers most of the city of Vaughan- one of Ontario's fastest growing municipalities. The only part of the city not in the riding is the southeastern corner which belongs to Thornhill.

Provincially and federally, the riding is a very different place. While the Liberal Sorbara won his provincial race by nearly 11,000 votes, his federal counterpart, Julian Fantino, a Conservative won the riding by 18,000 votes. Federally, the riding is very blue, while provincially it is very red. Personality is big in this riding, and that's why winning the seat when it's open is very important. Fantino was lucky enough to win Vaughan in a by-election two years ago by just 900 votes. He proved to be so popular, that he turned this into an 18,000 vote victory in last year's federal election, just 5 months after the by-election. However, just five months later, those same voters gave Sorbara an 11,000 vote victory in the provincial election.

The Liberals best part of the riding of the riding is the community of Maple, in the riding's east end. This is where the federal party won most of their small handful of polls in the federal election, and where Sorbara did the best provincially. The Liberals next best part of the riding is in Woodbridge, in the southwest. The Tories best areas are in the more rural parts of the riding, in the community of Kleinburg in the northwestern corner of the riding and along the eastern border of the riding, bordering Richmond Hill.

Running for the Liberals is Steven Del Duca, a former executive assistant of Sorbara. Running for the Tories again is Tony Genco, who was their candidate last election, and ran for the federal Liberals in the federal election five months prior. The NDP is running Paul Donofrio, a former fleet co-ordinator for the city.

Predictions!

In Fort Whyte, I'm going to go out on a limb (sarcasm) and call the Tories the winners there. They won't get the 62% they got last election, because there will be some push back against Pallister who is carpetbagging the district. But, he will get somewhere in the mid-50s. You can except the NDP to get a dead-cat bounce up to around 30%, while the Liberals will also get a boost from a few disgruntled Tories and get back up to double digits.

In Kitchener—Waterloo, I will have to use my thinking cap. It's really a hard call, as clearly either of the three parties could win this. The Tories led in the last poll, and so they look like they're in good position, however it has been a few weeks, and we all know how bad summer polling is. The riding seems like it is a natural Liberal one, at least when the party is polling well, but they're not, so it's not looking good for the Liberals. But if the NDP-Tory vote split is almost even, the Liberals could pick this seat up with barely more than 30% of the vote. Meanwhile, the NDP could easily win this seat. The NDP is notorious for winning surprise by-election victories, and with their new standing across the country, and their high poll numbers provincially, it wont be that much of a surprise if they win it. It will be a test of the party to see if they can start winning seats like this one where they lack a tradition, but may be somewhat left of centre. It's difficult to guess how well the NDP will do here, as they lack any history, having not even won the area in their 1990 majority (my sources tell me they won the area with the present boundaries though). Low 30s would be a good guess. As for the Liberals, I think they wont even break 30%, getting somewhere around 28 or 29%. However, I predict the Tories to win in a nail biter with 34% of the vote.

In Vaughan, it all comes down to the name on the ballot. Tory candidate Genco is already a two time loser, and is a party switcher to boot. Way to alienate half of the electorate. I don't think voters in Vaughan are going to trust him enough to vote for him. He's not a strong candidate like Fantino, and wont have a chance in this Liberal leaning district. I predict the Liberals will get somewhere in the high 40s, while Genco will not be able to improve much on his provincial numbers, getting somewhere in the high 30s. The NDP vote will be severely suppressed, and will be in single digits.

Quebec 2012 election prediction map (August 13 edition)

Current projection map.

Over a week of the Quebec election campaign has passed, and the race has remained just as close as it was when it began. All the polls are showing that the Liberals (PLQ) and the Parti Quebecois (PQ) are for all intents and purposes tied with the most recent polls showing the two parties within 3% points of each other at the most. And, to make things interesting the centre-right Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) party is coming on strong with one poll showing the new party within 5% of leading party.

While both the PQ and the PLQ are still neck and neck, they two parties have flipped their positions in the last week. At the beginning of the campaign, the Liberals were topping most of the polls, while the PQ now is. Even a narrow loss in the popular vote for the PQ is a good thing for that party, as due to Liberal vote concentration in Montreal, the PQ can still win (as was the case in 1998). However, the resurgence of the CAQ means this election may look more like the 2007 election where the electorate was split three ways, with the Liberals, the PQ and the predecessor to the CAQ, the Action Democratique du Quebec all received about 1/3 of the votes, and about 1/3 of the seats.

In making my prediction, I looked a lot at the 2007 election as a frame of reference. Where the ADQ did will in 2007 will probably be where the CAQ will do well in 2012. The polls seem to confirm this, showing the CAQ doing well in Quebec City, and in the Montreal suburbs. It can also be presumed the CAQ will do well in the most right wing part of the province, the Chaudiere-Appalaches region south of Quebec City.

For my first seat-by-seat projection of the campaign, I looked at three recent polls published by Leger, CROP and Forum Research. I took a look at their regional breakdowns and came up with averages to adust the redistributed figures from the 2008 election. For the seats that looked close, I took a further look at the riding history to come up with a plausible projection for those ridings. I also made further adjustments to other ridings where I saw fit. I will continue to make adjustments as the campaign goes on to factor in other things. An official list of candidates will also be important. I will be holding out on making projections for the new Option Nationale party and other parties for the time being (although, as you will see, columns exist for them.) I did make one projection for the ON in the riding where their leader is running.

As is always the case when I make projections, I rely on feedback just as much as I rely on polling data, so please let me know what you think is going on on the ground.

Here is my current seat by seat projection; All ridings shaded in grey are considered "too close to call" and appear as grey on the map. 

Riding	PLQ	PQ	CAQ	QS	PVQ	ON	Oth	Winning candidate
Abitibi-Est	37	40	16	4	2			Elizabeth Larouche
Abitibi-Ouest	20	54	19	7				Francois Gendron
Acadie	54	16	13	10	4			Christine St-Pierre
Anou—Louis-Riel	37	29	18	10	4			Lise Theriault
Argenteuil	34	34	21	4	4			Lise Proulx or Roland Richer
Arthabaska	30	29	31	4	3			Sylvie Roy
Beauce-Nord	25	11	55	3	3			Andre Spenard
Beauce-Sud	33	11	47	3	3			Richard Savoie
Beauharnois	24	41	28	4	3			Guy Leclair
Bellechasse	32	18	41	5				Christian Levesque
Berthier	17	40	33	5	4			Andre Villeneuve
Bertrand	25	45	18	5	4			Claude Cousineau
Blainville	23	34	37	3	4			Daniel Ratthe
Bonaventure	55	31	8	2	2			Damien Arsenault
Borduas	18	50	18	5	4			Pierre Duchesne
Bourassa-Sauve	48	22	18	9	2			Rita de Santis
Bourget	18	45	19	11	5			Maka Kotto
Brome—Missisquoi	34	28	25	5	4			Pierre Paradis
Chambly	22	38	32	4	4			Bertrand St-Arnaud
Champlain	25	38	29	4				Noella Champagne
Chapleau	46	23	19	4	5			Marc Carriere
Charlesbourg	34	21	35	4				Denise Trudel
Charlevoix—Cote-de-Beaupre	25	40	24	3	3			Pauline Marois
Chateauguay	35	31	27	3	4			Pierre Moreau
Chauveau	26	17	49	4				Gerard Deltell
Chicoutimi	33	43	15	6				Stephane Bedard
Chomedey	56	15	23	3	3			Guy Ouellette
Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere	23	17	51	4	2			Marc Picard
Cote-du-Sud	40	20	31	4	3			Robert Mortin
Cremazie	27	40	15	12	4			Diane De Courcy
D'Arcy-McGee	76	3	9	7	5			Lawrence Bergman
Deux-Montagnes	22	37	33	3	5			Daniel Goyer
Drummond—Bois-Francs	27	34	30	5	2			Annie Jean
Dubuc	34	49	19	5				Jean-Marie Claveau
Duplessis	25	49	15	5	3			Lorraine Richard
Fabre	38	29	26	4	4			Gilles Ouillet
Gaspe	38	45	10	3				Gaetan Lelievre
Gatineau	50	27	17	6	5			Stephanie Vallee
Gouin	12	36	8	38	4	*		Francoise David
Granby	21	27	40	5	3			Francois Bonnardel
Groulx	25	33	33	3	4			Raymond Archambault or Helene Daneault
Hochelaga—Maisonneuve	8	49	16	19	5			Carole Poirier
Hull	42	30	13	11	7			Maryse Gaudreault
Huntingdon	32	25	34	5	3			Claire Isabelle
Iberville	29	43	26	4	4			Marie Bouille
Iles-de-la-Madeleine	35	46	4	3	3			Jeannie Richard
Jacques-Cartier	67	4	11	7	9			Geoffrey Kelley
Jean-Lesage	27	28	31	7				Johanne Lapointe
Jeanne-Mance—Viger	60	10	17	8	2			Filomena Rotiroti
Jean-Talon	41	26	19	5	5			Yves Bolduc
Johnson	21	36	33	5	3			Yves-Francois Blanchet
Joliette	20	43	27	7				Veronique Hivon
Jonquiere	29	45	18	5	1			Sylvain Gaudreault
Labelle	20	50	18	5	4			Sylvain Page
Lac-Saint-Jean	21	53	18	4	3			Alexandre Clouthier
LaFontaine	57	14	15	8	4			Marc Tanguay
La Peltrie	30	15	47	4				Eric Caire
La Piniere	51	19	25	4	4			Fatima Houda-Pepin
Laporte	39	28	24	5	5			Nicole Menard
La Prairie	32	36	29	3	3			Pierre Langlois
L'Assomption	17	38	38	4	4			Lizabel Nitoi or Francois Legault
Laurier—Dorion	33	32	7	19	6			Gerry Sklavounos
Laval-des-Rapides	35	33	24	4	4			Alain Paquet
Laviolette	48	25	19	5	1			Julie Boulet
Levis	32	19	38	6				Christian Dube
Lotbiniere—Frontenac	35	22	34	4	1			Laurent Lessard
Louis-Hebert	39	23	29	3	3			Sam Hamad
Marguerite-Bourgeoys	55	15	14	8	4			Robert Poeti
Marie-Victorin	19	45	26	5	4			Bernard Drainville
Marquette	44	21	17	8	7			Francois Ouimet
Maskinonge	32	31	29	4	1			Jean-Paul Diamond
Masson	12	45	37	3	4			Diane Hamelin
Matane—Matapedia	20	58	14	4	2			Pascal Berube
Megantic	32	37	21	6				Gloriane Blais
Mercier	8	29	11	44	5			Amir Khadir
Mille-Iles	39	29	25	4	4			Francine Charbonneau
Mirabel	16	38	40	3	4			Sylvie d'Amours
Montarville	31	30	31	4	4			Nicole Girard or Nathalie Roy
Montmorency	27	21	41	3	3			Michelyne St-Laurent
Mont-Royal	63	7	12	10	6			Pierre Arcand
Nelligan	60	9	14	7	7			Yolande James
Nicolet—Becancour	25	33	30	*	3	9		Gilles Mayrand
Notre-Dame-de-Grace	54	7	10	6	15			Kathleen Weil
Orford	37	32	19	6	4			Pierre Reid
Outremont	41	20	12	17	7			Raymond Bachand
Papineau	42	29	18	5	4			Alexandre Iraca
Pointe-aux-Trembles	12	52	20	9	4			Nicole Leger
Pontiac	58	15	13	6	6			Charlotte L'Ecuyer
Portneuf	31	20	40	5				Jacques Marcotte
Rene-Levesque	18	55	19	5				Marjolain Dufour
Repentigny	22	37	34	4	4			Scott McKay
Richelieu	21	49	18	5	4			Elaine Zakaib
Richmond	34	36	19	5	3			Etienne-Alexis Boucher
Rimouski	22	51	17	6				Irvin Pelletier
Riviere-du-Loup—Temiscouata	32	38	21	3	2			Michel Lagace
Robert-Baldwin	68	3	13	8	6			Pierre Marsan
Roberval	31	43	17	4				Denis Trottier
Rosemont	19	46	15	14	4			Jean-Francois Lisee
Rousseau	21	52	15	6	4			Nicolas Marceau
Rouyn-Noranda—Temiscamingue	32	34	21	8	2			Gilles Chapadeau
Saint-Francois	35	39	16	5				Rejean Hebert
Saint-Henri—Sainte-Anne	35	33	12	12	5			Marguerite Blais
Saint-Hyacinthe	24	41	24	5	4			Emilien Pelletier
Saint-Jean	24	41	23	4	4			Dave Turcotte
Saint-Jerome	19	38	37	4	4			Gilles Robert
Saint-Laurent	51	13	17	11	6			Jean-Marc Fournier
Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques	15	42	13	21	6			Daniel Breton
Saint-Maurice	29	38	22	4	3			Luc Trudel
Sainte-Rose	32	34	28	5	2			Suzanne Proulx
Sanguinet	20	42	33	3	2			Alain Therrien
Sherbrooke	36	36	12	8	4			Jean Charest or Serge Cardin
Soulanges	36	33	21	4	4			Lucie Charlebois
Taillon	23	40	27	5	4			Marie Malavoy
Taschereau	28	37	17	9	5			Agnes Maltais
Terrebonne	16	40	37	5	4			Mathieu Traversy
Trois-Rivieres	31	33	26	5	2			Djemila Benhabib
Ungava	26	44	18	7	2			Luc Ferland
Vachon	14	53	22	6	4			Martine Ouellet
Vanier-Les Rivieres	31	19	41	4	2			Sylvain Levesque
Vaudreuil	44	24	24	3	5			Yvon Marcoux
Vercheres	15	45	32	4	4			Stephane Bergeron
Verdun	37	31	12	11	6			Henri-Francois Gautrin
Viau	46	21	15	11	5			Emmanuel Dubourg
Vimont	38	29	27	5	2			Jean Rousselle
Westmount—Saint-Louis	62	5	12	9	8			Jacques Chagnon

Projection chart:

Quebec 2012 election prediction map (August 3 edition)

Current prediction map

On Wednesday, Quebec Premier Jean Charest dropped the writs for the 40^th Quebec provincial election which will be held on September 4^th. Charest called the election to deal with the student protests that have crippled the province over the last few month. He is hoping on the votes of the “silent majority” of Quebeckers who oppose the student strikes- but have not been as loud as the students.

While public opinion may not be behind the students, it is not behind Jean Charest either. Most polls show Charest's Liberals neck and neck with the Parti Quebecois (PQ) in the low-30s. The PQ is struggling in their own right, but a tied election means more seats for them, due to having their support more spread out across the province. Both parties are being challenged by a new party, the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) which at one point in late 2011 topped the polls, but are now languishing in third place at around 20%. The CAQ will be the real wild card in this election. The party is generally centre-right and are only soft separatists. The party is in many ways the successor of the ADQ which voted to merge into the CAQ at the end of 2011.

My first prediction of the campaign will just be in map form. Further detailed analysis will come in later posts, but since I'm heading off to the cottage for the weekend, I figured I should get something up before I go. When I made the map, I only used a simple uniform swing model for each region of the province using the most recent Leger poll. I do not intend to just use a uniform swing model though, as you will note I have tried to avoid in the past. Though, Quebec more than any other province is the most “uniform” in its vote swings between elections.

If you have any comments about how you think a riding will go, please email me or comment on this post explaining why you think so. Viewer feedback is key in making accurate predictions. Even though it didn't go so well for the Alberta election a few months ago.

The projected seat totals based on my first prediction map show a very close race, but with the PQ ahead. It's still anyone's game as there are 33 seats that my projection shows as having the two leading parties within 5% of each other (I will narrow this down to 3% in future predictions):

Party	Projected seat total
Parti Quebecois	48
Liberal	37
Coalition Avenir Quebec	6
Quebec Solidaire	1
Too close to call	33

Quebec federal riding proposal analysis (part 1 - Western and Northern Quebec)

Current boundaries

On Monday, the Quebec federal riding boundary commission released their proposed map. And anyone who has been following my commentary since then knows my views on the subject. Quebec is due to get three more ridings. But that's not the real story of the proposal. The commission has decided to only retain the names of 19 of the ridings. The rest of the ridings will be getting new names. And some of those names are down right bizarre. But, my biggest complain with the new names is the fact that 24 of them will be named after people, including celebrity (but historically important) athletes such as Maurice Richard and Gilles Villeneuve. Some of the new ridings employ unnecessary historical spellings of regions, like adding an e to Shawinigan- “Shawinigane” or turning Lachute into “La Chute”. Not only that, but many of the new ridings have some bizarre boundaries and ignore community of interest in the name of making most ridings within 5% of the provincial average. Some Liberal MPs have already stated their displeasure.

Proposed boundaries

Anyways, as with Alberta and BC, there's no way I can analyze all of Quebec's 78 proposed ridings in one post. So, I will have to break the province down as well. Part one of my Quebec analysis will focus on the part of the province I know best. Western (and Northern) Quebec (I live across the river in Ottawa).

Presently, the region has just 5 ridings, but the large amount of growth in the region has meant the area will get an addition of one riding. The two northern ridings will stay largely unchanged, so the major changes in the area were made in the Outaouais area, the part of Quebec that is located in the Ottawa Valley. Presently, the Outaouais has 2 urban ridings (Gatineau and Hull—Aylmer), plus a third exurban/rural riding (Pontiac) that makes up the rest of the region. The commission has decided to re-orient the urban ridings, by creating one strictly urban riding, named Outaouais (consisting of Hull and part of the Gatineau sector), and two “rurban” ridings named Aylmer and Petite-Nation that take in urban parts of the City of Gatineau and some rural and exurban areas outside of the city. The left over area outside the city becomes the new riding of “Haute-Laurentides—Pontiac” which takes in the rual parts of the Outaouais and gains new territory in the Laurentians.

While I'm not a big fan of the proposed Outaouais riding, as it spans a natural boundary- the Gatineau River- the proposal for western Quebec isn't that bad. At least not compared to the rest of Quebec. Politically, it benefits the NDP the most, as it gains one more riding, and I see no reason for the NDP to not win it under the current political climate.

Here is my analysis of the six proposed ridings:

Outaouais

This riding combines the Hull sector (except the neighbourhoods of Birch Manor and Plateau) of the City of Gatineau with the neighbourhoods of Pointe-Gatineau, Templeton-Ouest, Touraine, Riviera, Cote d'Azur, and most of the Versant District in the Gatineau sector. This riding connects the more urban parts of the city of Gatineau together, in a sort of “Gatineau Centre” type riding. It contains both “Downtown Hull” and “Downtown Gatineau”. The commission named the riding “Outaouais” after the Ottawa River, which is named Outaouais in French. I think this is misleading, as “the Outaouais” is also a geographic term that is usually used to refer to the whole Gatineau region. This is why it is a bad name. I would suggest calling the riding “Hull—Gatineau”. 

I'm not a big fan of connecting these two parts of the city, as they are separated by a natural boundary- the Gatineau River. However, the two parts of the riding are similar in their demographics, so it's not a huge problem. Also, if the riding didn't exist, another larger riding would have to be created spanning the Gatineau River further upstream, connecting rural and exurban communities surrounding the city of Gatineau. This may prove to be the worse of the two options, and so this district might not be so bad. I would make one change however, trading the Versant District with Limbour neighrbourhood, as these proposed boundaries currently isolate Limbour from the rest of the new riding of Petite-Nation being created from the rest of the city.  

Politically, the riding is easily NDP. Both ridings it would be carved out of voted NDP at around 60% in 2011. The big question is who would run in this seat, Nycole Turmel (MP for Hull—Aylmer) or Francoise Boivin (MP for Gatineau). My guess is it will be Turmel, as the Hull part of the riding has more people.

Aylmer

This riding contains the western suburban part of Gatineau and the surrounding exurbs. It contains the Aylmer sector of the city, the neighbourhoods of Plateau and Birch Manor in the Hull sector along with the municipalities of Cantley, Chelsea, Pontiac and La Peche. The commission named the riding after the Aylmer sector, where much of the riding would live. However, this name ignores the diversity of this riding which spans from the Ottawa River in the south, into the Gatineau Hills, across Gatineau Park and across the Gatineau River. It would make more sense to reference the Gatineau Hills in the riding name, perhaps calling it “Aylmer—Les Collines-de-l'Outaouais”, or “Aylmer—Les Collines”.

The proposed Aylmer riding takes in part of the current riding of Hull—Aylmer and part of the riding of Pontiac. All of the Aylmer sector went NDP in 2011, while the parts of the Pontiac riding in this new Aylmer riding are very NDP friendly as well (except for the community of of Quyon. Pontiac's MP, NDPer Mathieu Ravignat would see his riding split up with this map. However, most of his strength came in the part of the riding that would be transferred to this riding. As well, he would live in this riding too. I predict that if he runs again, it will be here.

Petite-Nation

This riding takes in eastern Gatineau suburbs and surrounding exurbs. It contains the municipalities of L'Ange-Gardien, Notre-Dame-de-la-Salette and Val-des-Monts as well as the communities of Buckingham, Masson and Angers and the neighbourhoods of Limbour, Mont-Luc, Templeton-Est and Old Gatineau. The riding was named after the Petite-Nation seigneury acquired by Joseph Papineau in 1803. The problem with this is, the seignuery is actually located further downstream the Ottawa River. And, it is also the name of a river, which is also found in that area. I fail to see the connection between the proposed riding and a region that is located downstream from the area. Perhaps a better name for the riding would be “Gatineau—Du Lievre”, after the Du Lievre river which flows through the eastern part of the riding.

Petite-Nation would be carved out of the present ridings of Gatineau and Pontiac. Both portions of those ridings given to Petite-Nation are very NDP friendly, with just one Tory poll in Val-des-Monts in the Pontiac riding. It is likely that Gatineau NDP MP Francoise Boivin would chose this riding to run in.

Hautes-Laurentides—Pontiac

This proposed riding would included the Regional County Municipalities (MRCs) of Pontiac, Antoine-Labelle, Papineau, La Vallee-de-la-Gatineau and the western 2/5ths of Les Laurentides. The riding is quite large, taking in much of rural western Quebec. It stretches from the communities along the Ottawa River upstream from Montabello into the interior of the province, taking in the communities of the Laurentian Mountains. The riding would encircle the Outaouais region which would be in the three previous ridings I mentioned. This riding would take in parts of three current ridings. It takes the MRCs of Pontiac and La Valee-de-la-Gatineau from the riding of Pontiac, it takes the MRC of Papineau from Argenteuil—Papineau—Mirabel and it takes in Antoine-Labelle and part of Les Laurentides from Laurentides—Labelle. The proposed name for the riding takes in the fact that the riding consists of the Pontiac region of Quebec, as well as the Upper Laurentian Mountains (Laurentides in French). However, the name excludes the MRC of Papineau, which is in neither region. Perhaps calling the riding “Pontiac—Hautes-Laurentides—Papineau” would be better.

This riding has no real predecessor riding, as it takes in large parts of three previous ridings. I don't think any of the current Members of Parliament will run in this riding. In any event, the NDP will have the upperhand in the riding, as it won the most polls here out of all the parties. However, it does take in some of the least NDP parts of the three ridings it comes from. The Pontiac MRC is very Conservative, while the Papineau and Antoine-Labelle MRCs have strong BQ areas. However, these will not be enough to hurt the NDP's chances in this new riding. The Conservatives did hold the riding of Pontiac from 2006 to 2011 thanks to the heavily Anglo Pontiac MRC which will now be in this proposed riding. However, this new riding would be considerably less Anglo, as it leaves out the northern Gatineau exurbs which helped the Tories win the Pontiac riding.

Abitbi—Temiscaminque

At 104,000, this riding is slightly above the provincial average of 101,000. To bring the riding down to size, the commission proposes removing the Valcanton area of the riding, which is currently the northern appendage of the riding. On paper, this move makes sense, as the area is the only part of the riding not in the Abitbi—Temiscamingue region of the province, as it's located north of region's border, in Nord-du-Quebec. However, removing this part of the riding is a mistake in my opinion, because the area is more linked to the Abitibi region to its south, rather than the riding of Abitibi—Nunavik it would be joining. It is connected by a highway to the nearby community of La Sarre in Abitbi, but to get to the rest of the Nunavik riding, you have to travel by unreliable forestry roads that are not provincially maintained. The population of 104,000 is fine, and since the region might end up losing population (something it has avoided, surprisingly) due to economic reasons, it is okay to be a bit over the average. Plus, the loss of Valcanton only reduces the riding size by 800 people. Politically, the change would make no difference, as the 3 polls in Valcanton voted NDP just like most of the rest of the riding.

Abitibi—Nunavik

The present riding of Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou geographically takes up more than half the province's land area, but is also the least populated riding in the province, with 85,000 people. But, considering the size of the riding, this is completely acceptable, and it also falls with the 25% variance. Considering other province's liberal use of creating ridings that are deemed “exceptional circumstances” and fall below this threshold, it's a surprise that Quebec never did this considering how big this riding is.

The commission decided to just make two alterations to the riding's boundaries. First, it added the Valcanton area. As noted, I feel is unnecessary, especially considering that despite the riding being under populated, Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou is still a growing riding (it saw a population increase) that doesn't need areas added to its already huge size. The second change was to move the east-west border it shares with the riding of Manicouagan up from the southern boundary of Kativik (th 55^th parallel) to the 56^th parallel. This unites the non-contiguous parts of the riding that existed due to the Kativk boundary “going through” the boundary with Labrador. This is only done for esthetics however, since the communities affected are only connected to the rest of Quebec through Labrador anyways. This boundary change does not affect anyone, as the area is uninhabited. There is a Naskapi vilage municipality in the area (Kawawachikamach), but it is uninhabited. All together, the riding only loses about 800 people. These changes do no affect the political make up of the riding. It is already an NDP riding that would be gaining 3 NDP-won polls.

Despite the lack of major changes to the riding, the commission decided to renamed the riding, to much shorter “Abitibi—Nunavik”. This probably won't fly because it neglects all of the territory between the Abitibi city of Val-d'Or and the Inuit region of Nunavik in the far north. This ignores the Cree villages and the White communities in between. That is why the present name of the riding has been settled. Considering the current MP for the riding (Romeo Saganash) is a Cree, the dropping of “Eeyou” from the riding name probably will not fly. Eeyou Istchee is the name of the Cree controlled territory in the riding. Since the riding consists of all of the region of “Nord-du-Quebec” plus the Abitibi area MRC of La Vallee-de-l'Or, perhaps a better and more neutral name for the riding (and shorter!) should be Abitibi—Nord-du-Quebec. I know, I have expressed a distaste at using names that use a directional and a province in the title, but “Nord-du-Quebec” is an official region of the province, so I can make an exception. Of course, one can always keep the current name, despite how long it is.

You can read the proposal here.