Pages

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Ontario election 2011 prediction (Final edition)

Click to enlarge.
It's finally time to compile my very last prediction of the Ontario provincial election. Voters will be going to the polls today, and the polls are starting to show the Liberals finally breaking away into the lead, but will it be enough for a majority?

There has been many polls since my last projection, including a plethora of riding polls put out by Forum Research that put into question their earlier poll of 40,000 people which was a large enough sample for riding specific results. Just on Tuesday, they put out a poll of the ridings which had been the the closest in their prior poll, which helped me determine where they were (A) wrong and (B) where the movement was. They also put out some riding polls last week for the Ontario Federation of Labour.

For this projection, I used an average of the final polls these last few days. As I was doing the numbers, some last few polls came out, but they only vary somewhat from the numbers I used to make this projection. Most polls are now showing the Liberals in the high 30s, which is only a few points off their mark set in 2007 (42%). The Tories are polling in the mid-to-low 30s, which is around what they got last time (32%). The NDP is polling in the mid-to-low 20s, which is an improvement from the 2007, where they got 17%. Meanwhile, the Greens are polling in the low single digits, about half of what they got in 2007 (8%). It should also be known that the Liberals are polling quite well in the Toronto area, which is where they will make the most gains in votes, but they are still likely to lose some seats to the NDP which are set to gain as many as three seats in the region.

Here are my final predictions:

Riding Lib PC NDP Grn Oth Winning candidate
Ajax—Pickering 47 32 16 4 1 Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin
30
23 43 3 1 Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale 44
35
16
4 1 Ted McMeekin
Barrie
35
40
19
5 1 Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York
36
18
41 4 1 Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton
34
24
35 6 1 Jagmeet Singh
Brampton West 45
33
20
2 0 Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale 44
37
12
4 1 Linda Jeffrey
Brant
31
36
25
6 2 Michael St. Amant
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
29
39
17
10 5 Bill Walker
Burlington
35
43
17
4 1 Jane McKenna
Cambridge
31
39
23
6 1 Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills
32
48
15
4 1 Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex
29
41
25
5 - Rick Nicholls
Davenport
39
10
46 3 2 Jonah Schein
Don Valley East 54
28
14
2 1 Michael Coteau
Don Valley West 59
27
9
4 1 Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon
26
44
12
18 0 Sylvia Jones
Durham
28
46
21
4 1 John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence 54
30
13
2 1 Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London
22
49
24
4 1 Jeff Yurek
Essex
21
40
35
4 - Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre 51
30
14
3 2 Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North 56
25
14
3 2 Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore 49
28
19
2 2 Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
34
48
14
3 1 Marlissa Gosselin
Guelph 41
27
23
8 1 Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk
22
50
22
4 1 Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
34
46
15
5 0 Laurie Scott
Halton
36
43
17
3 1 Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre
27
16
52 3 2 Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
25
22
48 3 2 Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain
33
24
37 4 2 Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce
29
40
26
4 1 Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River
19
44
37
2 0 Rod McKay
Kingston and the Islands 46
23
23
6 2 John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre 39
39
17
4 1 John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga
39
39
18
4 - Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo
39
40
16
4 1 Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
24
48
22
5 2 Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
31
45
20
4 - Randy Hillier
Leeds—Grenville
22
56
18
4 0 Steve Clark
London North Centre 44
28
23
4 1 Deb Matthews
London West 46
28
22
3 1 Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe
27
26
39 6 2 Teresa Armstrong
Markham—Unionville 55
27
13
4 1 Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville 42
39
13
5 1 Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South 50
35
11
3 1 Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South 46
30
20
3 1 Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale 43
36
13
5 1 Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville 48
31
14
7 - Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton
31
50
15
3 1 Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora
37
42
17
4 - Frank Klees
Niagara Falls 35
35
26
2 2 Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook
23
52
17
6 2 Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt
21
24
52 3 - France Gelinas
Nipissing
30
40
25
5 - Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West
33
39
21
6 1 Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham 44
40
11
4 1 Helena Jaczek
Oakville 45
33
15
5 2 Kevin Flynn
Oshawa
24
37
33
5 1 Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre 38
21
36
4 1 Yasir Naqvi
Ottawa South 46
37
12
4 1 Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean
38
40
16
5 1 Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans 42
42
13
3 1 Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier 49
25
18
7 1 Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford
27
45
22
4 2 Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park
36
14
44 3 3 Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka
28
43
17
11 1 Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington 45
27
20
5 2 John Wilkinson
Peterborough 42
26
26
5 1 Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East 49
32
15
3 1 Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings
33
37
23
5 2 Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
21
57
16
4 0 John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill 44
36
12
7 1 Reza Moridi
St. Catharines 43
33
17
5 2 Jim Bradley
St. Paul's 58
18
18
4 2 Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton
23
44
28
3 2 Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie 44
21
31
2 2 David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre 53
24
19
2 1 Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest 43
22
29 5 1 Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt 57
21
18
2 2 Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood 56
21
19
2 2 Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River 54
13
29
1 3 Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North
30
39
23
8 - Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey
29
47
14
10 - Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
23
52
21
3 1 Jim McDonnell
Sudbury
39
18
39 3 1 Paul Loewenburg
Thornhill
41
48
8
2 1 Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
33
28
36 3 0 Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North 37
26
34
3 0 Michael Gravelle
Timikaming—Cochrane
31
16
50 3 0 John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay
17
35
46 2 0 Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre 57
14
22
5 2 Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth
33
13
48 4 2 Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina
35
12
45 7 1 Rosario Marchese
Vaughan 52
30
14
3 1 Greg Sorbara
Welland
22
32
41 4 1 Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills
32
46
18
4 - Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa
32
45
18
4 1 Christine Elliott
Willowdale 54
24
17
4 1 David Zimmer
Windsor West 37
24
31
4 - Teresa Piruzza
Windsor—Tecumseh 41
24
30
4 1 Dwight Duncan
York Centre 42
37
14
4 1 Monte Kwinter
York South—Weston
39
14
43 3 1 Paul Ferreira
York West 56
12
29
2 1 Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe
28
44
21
6 1 Julia Munro

Riding changes since my last prediction:
The Liberals have gained the most since my last projection, gaining a net of 3 seats. I now have them gaining Ancaster—Flamborough—Dundas—Westdale, Brampton—Springdale, Oak Ridges—Markham, and Perth—Wellington from the Tories, while I now have them leading in Ottawa Centre and Windsor West where I had the NDP Leading before. One additional seat was tied in my last prediction, Thunder Bay—Superior North. I now have the Liberals winning it. The gains are offset by some seats I no longer have the Liberals leading in. They were leading in Brant, which I now have going Tory, and I now have the NDP leading in Bramalea—Gore—Malton, London—Fanshawe and Sudbury. I have also taken Kenora—Rainy River away from the NDP and given it to the Tories.




Calling the toss ups

Bramalea—Gore—Malton:
Recent polls suggest that popular NDP candidate Jagmeet Singh will make history here as the first NDPer to win a seat in Peel Region. Singh narrowly lost the seat in the federal election back in May in this heavily South Asian riding. However, the polls still say it's a close race, and with the Liberals coming on strong in the home stretch, especially in the GTA, they may still hold on to this seat. I think Singh will pull through though.

Kitchener Centre:
Recent polls show this riding as a very close race. We may see a repeat of the 2008 federal election which was decided by just 400 votes. In 2007, Liberal MPP John Milloy won this seat by 8,000 votes. It hard to imagine the Tories have a chance here, but that's what the polls are showing. I'm still going to call this Liberal though.

Kitchener—Conestoga:
It was one of the surprises on election night in 2007 that this newly created rural-suburban seat around the Kitchener-Waterloo area did not go conservative. The race was decided by just 2000 votes where Liberal Leanne Pendergast defeated the Tory candidate Michael Harris. The two are facing off again, and it will prove to be another close race. Federally, the seat is a safe Conservative one, so I like Harris' chances here. Tory pick up.

Kitchener—Waterloo:
Polls are also showing a close race in next-door Kitchener—Waterloo. If it weren't for popular Tory incumbent MPP Elizabeth Witmer, this riding would likely be Liberal. Perhaps that's why Witmer is in a tough fight to keep it. In the 2011 federal election, the Liberals nearly won this seat back in a close race. And, the Liberals have been targeting Witmer for quite some time, coming within 1500 votes of ousting her in 2003. However, at the end of the day, I think Witmer's popularity will keep this riding for her.

Mississauga—East Cooksville:
Polls show a close race in this seat that was vacated by the Liberals when its MPP chose to run unsuccessfully for the federal riding. With the Liberals surging in the Greater Toronto Area though, they should be able to keep this seat, which was one of the strongest for the Liberals in the Peel region in the May election.

Niagara Falls
With the Tory and NDP leaders hailing from this region, the Liberal vote here is expected to drop, or at least according to some polls. Liberal MPP Kim Craitor won the seat by 8,000 votes in 2007, but the riding has been Conservative federally since 2004. I expect a close race, but with the Liberals back on top in the polls, they should be able to keep this.

Ottawa Centre
Oh boy, I'm going to get in some trouble here, by picking the Liberals to win. I must admit to working on the NDP campaign here, and while I'm optimistic of an NDP victory, I think the Liberals might just keep the riding. There has been no reliable polling of the riding, but I can tell with the collapse of the large Green vote in 2007, that both the NDP and Liberal numbers will go up. The question is whether or not the NDP can make up the 4% deficit it had in the 2007 election.

Ottawa West—Nepean
Ottawa Citizen columnist Randall Denley is challenging former Ottawa mayor and Liberal MPP Bob Chiarelli in what looks like a really close race. The riding is fairly safe for the Tories federally, and I think it will go that way provincially too. Chiarelli won by just 1300 votes in a by-election last year when the Liberals were polling where they are now. However, he wasn't running against Randall Denley.

Ottawa—Orleans
Another close race in the Ottawa area is in Ottawa—Orleans. The Liberals did very well in this riding despite losing in the 2011 federal election. Provincially, the Liberals won the seat by 9000 votes in 2007. Liberal MPP Phil McNeely is coming under heat by two local councillors however, making him vulnerable. He should be able to keep the riding though, it will be close.

Sudbury
Sudbury is a new seat on the radar, after a couple of polls showed the NDP ahead here. The NDP surprised many by picking up Sudbury in the 2008 federal election. Now, they may surprise many still by winning this seat in this provincial election despite losing by over 10,000 votes last election. The NDP wont surprise me however, as I expect them to hang on and win here.

Thunder Bay—Atikokan
Only 60 votes separated the Liberals and the NDP here in the 2007 election, and it is expected to be close once again. The NDP loser in that election, John Rafferty is now the MP for the area. And so, the NDP must build on this loss with a new candidate in Mary Kozorys. Polls show her leading Liberal MPP Bill Mauro with the Tories increasing their vote close behind as well. I expect the NDP to hold on here.

Thunder Bay—Superior North
Next door in this riding will prove to be another close race. However, I think the strength of Liberal cabinet minister Michael Gravelle will keep this riding for the Liberals. Recent polls have shown him with a small lead in the riding which he won in 2007 by just 2,400 votes.

Conclusion
I am now predicting a Liberal minority government. A strong government, very close to a majority. With the Liberals ahead in 48 seats, they will only need to gain six to get a majority. They can do this by winning the six listed toss up seats where they are losing. Those would be Bramalea—Gore—Malton, Kitchener—Conestoga, Kitchener—Waterloo, Ottawa West—Nepean, Sudbury and Thunder Bay—Atikokan. Meanwhile, the Tories are just 7 seats behind the Liberals in my projection. It is unlikely at current polling numbers for them to overcome this deficit. However, if they win all but one of those toss ups where they are behind, they will have more seats than the Liberals.

Polls close at 9pm Eastern. Please follow my Twitter feed for updates from me at my local election party.

No comments:

Post a Comment