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Tuesday, October 4, 2011

Manitoba election 2011 final prediction

Manitoba goes to the polls today, and so it's time for my final projection. There has been just one poll since my last projection, released by Angus Reid just yesterday. It showed basically the same numbers as the Probe Research poll I used to do my last numbers. The NDP is still at 46%, and the Tories are still at 43%. The only difference is that the Liberals are up 1%, to 8% while the Greens are down 1% to 3%. As such, not much has changed with this prediction, except some changes to the "toss ups", as I made predictions as to who I think will win that were contrary to my last prediction. 

Riding
NDP
PC
Lib
Grn
Oth
Projected winner
Agassiz
27
67
7
4
-
Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden
16
79
5
-
-
Larry Maguire
Assiniboia
58
36
4
2
-
Jim Rondeau
Brandon East
45
43
6
6
-
Drew Caldwell
Brandon West
43
52
5
-
0
Reg Hellwer
Burrows
67
28
4
1
0
Melanie Wight
Charleswood
26
63
7
4
-
Myrna Driedger
Concordia
68
26
4
2
-
Matt Wiebe
Dauphin
47
45
4
4
-
Stan Struthers
Dawson Trail
38
57
5
-
-
Laurent Tetrault
Elmwood
60
26
11
3
-
Jim Maloway
Emerson
17
67
16
-
-
Cliff Graydon
Flin Flon
65
25
8
2
-
Clarence Petterson
Fort Garry-Riverview
58
27
12
3
-
James Allum
Fort Richmond
55
33
11
1
-
Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Rouge
47
24
25
4
-
Jennifer Howard
Fort Whyte
30
64
6
-
-
Hugh McFadyen
Gimli
50
42
5
3
-
Peter Bjornson
Interlake
49
47
4
-
0
Tom Nevakshonoff
Kewatinook
54
40
5
1
-
Eric Robinson
Kildonan
61
35
4
-
-
Dave Chomiak
Kirkfield Park
46
46
5
3
-
Kelly de Groot
La Verendrye
25
67
5
2
-
Dennis Smook
Lac du Bonnet
22
69
7
2
-
Wayne Ewasko
Lakeside
31
61
5
3
-
Ralph Eichler
Logan
60
22
14
4
0
Flor Marcelino
Midland
20
69
11
-
-
Blaine Pederson
Minto
62
20
11
5
2
Andrew Swan
Morden-Winkler
9
83
6
-
-
Cameron Friesen
Morris
29
64
7
-
-
Mavis Taillieu
Point Douglas
58
30
8
2
2
Kevin Chief
Portage La Prairie
38
54
8
-
-
Ian Wishart
Radisson
57
39
4
-
-
Bidhu Jha
Riding Mountain
31
64
6
4
-
Leanne Rowat
Riel
59
34
7
-
-
Christine Melnick
River East
44
51
4
1
-
Bonnie Mitchelson
River Heights
25
34
39
2
-
Jon Gerrard
Rossmere
50
44
4
2
-
Erna Braun
Seine River
58
35
7
-
-
Theresa Oswald
Selkirk
49
45
6
-
-
Greg Dewar
Southdale
46
50
4
-
-
Judy Eastman
Spruce Woods
20
71
9
-
-
Cliff Cullen
St. Boniface
65
24
8
3
-
Greg Selinger
St. James
49
43
4
4
-
Deanne Cruthers
St. Johns
63
30
4
3
-
Gord Mackintosh
St. Norbert
37
55
8
-
-
Karen Velthuys
St. Paul
30
59
9
-
-
Ron Schuler
St. Vital
64
31
5
-
-
Nancy Allan
Steinbach
7
88
5
-
-
Kevin Goertzen
Swan River
47
48
4
-
-
Dave Powell
The Maples
52
38
9
1
-
Mohinder Saran
The Pas
71
25
4
-
-
Frank Whitehead
Thompson
67
18
15
-
-
Steve Ashton
Transcona
66
30
4
-
-
Daryl Reid
Tuxedo
33
52
13
2
-
Heather Stefanson
Tyndall Park
67
23
9
1
-
Ted Marcelino
Wolseley
65
17
6
12
-
Rob Altemeyer

Predicting the toss ups

Brandon East
My last projection gave the Tories the edge here, but provincially, this riding is still safe NDP territory. The riding has voted NDP in every election since it was created in 1969. While the region is trending Tory, I don't expect it to go PC quite yet- at least not while the NDP is running an incumbent in Drew Caldwell. He won comfortably in 2007 by 1,000 votes.

Dauphin
Dauphin is another long time NDP riding. It has been represented by the NDP in every election since 1981. This riding I had the Tories ahead in my last projection, but I'm not quite ready to say that, although it will be close with the Tories trending up here.

Interlake
Interlake is yet another rural Manitoba riding with a long NDP history. The NDP has won the region in every election since 1969. In the last election, the NDP won the seat by 1,600 votes, but the riding's boundary changes since then has made the seat more Tory friendly. I still don't think it will be enough for the Tories to win, however.

Kirkfield Park
Before the NDP finally won this seat in 2007, Kirkfield Park had elected the Tories for 30 years. This is one of those suburban Winnipeg seats that went to the new NDP of Gary Doer. While the NDP is up in Winnipeg, it's seats like Kirkfield Park the Tories will be targeting, and I think in this case they will prove successful in getting this riding back.

River Heights
The Liberals are in danger here of losing there one and only riding. The Liberal vote is expected to half across the city, and the Tories are up, and will be targeting this affluent riding in the centre of the riding. The Tories are also benefited from the fact that the new boundaries make this riding less Liberal friendly. However, with the Liberals putting all of their eggs in this basket, they should be able to keep it.

Selkirk
Selkirk has not voted Tory ever, since being created in 1957. While the area is trending towards the Tories, I don't think they are quite there yet. The NDP won here comfortably by 1600 votes in 2007. They should be able to win it again although it will be close. This riding has lost some of its NDP areas after redistribution.

Southdale
Until they won it in 2007, the NDP had not been able to take this area of Winnipeg since 1966. It's a traditionally Tory area that the NDP was able to win last election by 1200 votes. However, the riding has lost some NDP friendly neighbourhoods, and the Tories will be targeting it. They should be able ot pick it up.

Swan River
Swan River is an historically Tory riding that has voted NDP since 1990. It is currently an open seat. The NDP won the seat by 1,600 votes in 2007, but without the power of incumbency, are vulnerable here. I had previously thought the NDP was strong enough to keep this riding, but I think the Tories may just win it, strengthened by a depleted NDP in rural Manitoba, and the fact that the riding has lost some NDP areas.

Seat changes / conclusion
The only seat changes projected from my last prediction are the one's discussed above. Basically, I have the NDP picking up Brandon East, Dauphin and Selkirk, while I have the Tories picking up Kirkfield Park, Southdale and Swan River. There is no net change from last time. And so, I predict yet another NDP majority government in Manitoba.


1 comment:

  1. Luckily the NDP fared better. They ain't perfect, but I trust 'em over the PCs anyday.
    I like the Liberals too, but the NDP have done a good job so far so I see no reason to not vote for them.

    ReplyDelete