Pages

Friday, September 30, 2011

Manitoba election 2011 prediction (September 30th edition)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

Manitoba, which goes to the polls on Tuesday in their provincial election, finally saw some polling numbers this past week. After not having a poll since June, three polls have just come out. The most recent one was just released this morning by Probe Research, and gave the NDP a moderate lead over the Tories of 46% to 43%, with the Liberals far behind at 7% and the Greens at 4%

These numbers don't show a huge change from the last election in 2007, where the NDP won 45% of the vote, and the Tories 38%. The poll also showed that the NDP is holding ground in Winnipeg, which holds most of the seats in the province, while the Tories are gaining, but only at the expense of the Liberals. However, in rural Manitoba, the NDP is down considerably, and this might mean some seat losses. However, must of rural Manitoba votes overwhelmingly PC anyways, so much of this swing will be wasted.

Due to the small change in voter support from 2007, I expect little change from that election. Following is my riding by riding projections for Tuesday's election. Note, I have not been able to get a hold of the transposition of the votes from the last election (Manitoba has just undergone boundary redistribution), however, I have been pointed to some poll maps from the last election overlaid with the new boundaries. That gave me a good idea as to how much some ridings will have changed. Many thanks to Krago from the rabble.ca forum for making these!

Riding NDP PC Lib Grn Oth Projected winner
Agassiz 27 67 6 3 - Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden 17 79 4 - - Larry Maguire
Assiniboia 58 36 3 3 - Jim Rondeau
Brandon East 43 47 4 6 - Mike Waddell
Brandon West 44 52 4 - 0 Reg Hellwer
Burrows 67 28 3 2 0 Melanie Wight
Charleswood 26 63 6 5 - Myrna Driedger
Concordia 68 26 3 3 - Matt Wiebe
Dauphin
45
47 3 5 - Lloyd McKinney
Dawson Trail 39 57 4 - - Laurent Tetrault
Elmwood 60 26 10 4 - Jim Maloway
Emerson 18 67 15 - - Cliff Graydon
Flin Flon 65 25 7 3 - Clarence Petterson
Fort Garry-Riverview 58 27 11 4 - James Allum
Fort Richmond 55 33 10 2 - Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Rouge 47 24
24
5 - Jennifer Howard
Fort Whyte 31 64 5 - - Hugh McFadyen
Gimli 50 42 4 4 - Peter Bjornson
Interlake 49 48 3 - 0 Tom Nevakshonoff
Kewatinook 54 40 4 2 - Eric Robinson
Kildonan 62 35 3 - - Dave Chomiak
Kirkfield Park 48 44 4 4 - Sharon Blady
La Verendrye 25 67 4 3 - Dennis Smook
Lac du Bonnet 22 69 6 3 - Wayne Ewasko
Lakeside 31 61 4 4 - Ralph Eichler
Logan 60 22 13 5 0 Flor Marcelino
Midland 21 69 10 - - Blaine Pederson
Minto 62 20 10 6 2 Andrew Swan
Morden-Winkler 10 83 5 - - Cameron Friesen
Morris 30 64 6 - - Mavis Taillieu
Point Douglas 58 30 7 3 2 Kevin Chief
Portage La Prairie 39 54 7 - - Ian Wishart
Radisson 58 39 3 - - Bidhu Jha
Riding Mountain 31 64 5 5 - Leanne Rowat
Riel 60 34 6 - - Christine Melnick
River East
45
50 3 2 - Bonnie Mitchelson
River Heights 25 34 38 3 - Jon Gerrard
Rossmere 50 44 3 3 - Erna Braun
Seine River 59 35 6 - - Theresa Oswald
Selkirk 45 50 5 - - David Bell
Southdale 49 48 3 - - Erin Selby
Spruce Woods 21 71 8 - - Cliff Cullen
St. Boniface 65 24 7 4 - Greg Selinger
St. James 48 44 3 5 - Deanne Cruthers
St. Johns 63 30 3 4 - Gord Mackintosh
St. Norbert 38 55 7 - - Karen Velthuys
St. Paul
31
59 8 - - Ron Schuler
St. Vital 65 31 4 - - Nancy Allan
Steinbach 8 88 4 - - Kevin Goertzen
Swan River 48 45 3 - - Ron Kostyshyn
The Maples 53 38 8 1 - Mohinder Saran
The Pas 72 25 3 - - Frank Whitehead
Thompson 68 18 14 - - Steve Ashton
Transcona 67 30 3 - - Daryl Reid
Tuxedo 33 52 12 3 - Heather Stefanson
Tyndall Park 67 23 8 2 - Ted Marcelino
Wolseley 65 17 5 13 - Rob Altemeyer

Riding changes since last prediction
For the most part, there were just some alterations from my last projection, despite the fact that it has been three months since my last one. I have now taken Swan River, Interlake, Selkirk and Brandon East out of the NDP category and put them into too close to call. Meanwhile, River Heights the only Liberal call I had is now too close to call as well. River East is the only riding that I had projected to go Tory that has been put into the too close to call column. Meanwhile, the Tories are now projected to win Dawson Trails and St. Norbert, both pick ups from my last projection. And, Fort Richmond is now projected to go NDP. 



Conclusion
It looks like the NDP will be headed for their fourth straight majority government. Their slim lead in the polls doesn't matter too much, due to the fact that their benefited from having much of the Tory vote being wasted in rural Manitoba. However, if the Tories win all of their too close to call seats, they can still win a majority of their own. In addition to the 24 seats I have them projected to win or are leading in, they would also have to win Interlake, Kirkfield Park, Southdale, Swan River and either St. James or River Heights to get a majority. Not outside the realm of possibility.

No comments:

Post a Comment