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Friday, September 30, 2011

Manitoba election 2011 prediction (September 30th edition)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith

Manitoba, which goes to the polls on Tuesday in their provincial election, finally saw some polling numbers this past week. After not having a poll since June, three polls have just come out. The most recent one was just released this morning by Probe Research, and gave the NDP a moderate lead over the Tories of 46% to 43%, with the Liberals far behind at 7% and the Greens at 4%

These numbers don't show a huge change from the last election in 2007, where the NDP won 45% of the vote, and the Tories 38%. The poll also showed that the NDP is holding ground in Winnipeg, which holds most of the seats in the province, while the Tories are gaining, but only at the expense of the Liberals. However, in rural Manitoba, the NDP is down considerably, and this might mean some seat losses. However, must of rural Manitoba votes overwhelmingly PC anyways, so much of this swing will be wasted.

Due to the small change in voter support from 2007, I expect little change from that election. Following is my riding by riding projections for Tuesday's election. Note, I have not been able to get a hold of the transposition of the votes from the last election (Manitoba has just undergone boundary redistribution), however, I have been pointed to some poll maps from the last election overlaid with the new boundaries. That gave me a good idea as to how much some ridings will have changed. Many thanks to Krago from the rabble.ca forum for making these!

Riding NDP PC Lib Grn Oth Projected winner
Agassiz 27 67 6 3 - Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden 17 79 4 - - Larry Maguire
Assiniboia 58 36 3 3 - Jim Rondeau
Brandon East 43 47 4 6 - Mike Waddell
Brandon West 44 52 4 - 0 Reg Hellwer
Burrows 67 28 3 2 0 Melanie Wight
Charleswood 26 63 6 5 - Myrna Driedger
Concordia 68 26 3 3 - Matt Wiebe
Dauphin
45
47 3 5 - Lloyd McKinney
Dawson Trail 39 57 4 - - Laurent Tetrault
Elmwood 60 26 10 4 - Jim Maloway
Emerson 18 67 15 - - Cliff Graydon
Flin Flon 65 25 7 3 - Clarence Petterson
Fort Garry-Riverview 58 27 11 4 - James Allum
Fort Richmond 55 33 10 2 - Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Rouge 47 24
24
5 - Jennifer Howard
Fort Whyte 31 64 5 - - Hugh McFadyen
Gimli 50 42 4 4 - Peter Bjornson
Interlake 49 48 3 - 0 Tom Nevakshonoff
Kewatinook 54 40 4 2 - Eric Robinson
Kildonan 62 35 3 - - Dave Chomiak
Kirkfield Park 48 44 4 4 - Sharon Blady
La Verendrye 25 67 4 3 - Dennis Smook
Lac du Bonnet 22 69 6 3 - Wayne Ewasko
Lakeside 31 61 4 4 - Ralph Eichler
Logan 60 22 13 5 0 Flor Marcelino
Midland 21 69 10 - - Blaine Pederson
Minto 62 20 10 6 2 Andrew Swan
Morden-Winkler 10 83 5 - - Cameron Friesen
Morris 30 64 6 - - Mavis Taillieu
Point Douglas 58 30 7 3 2 Kevin Chief
Portage La Prairie 39 54 7 - - Ian Wishart
Radisson 58 39 3 - - Bidhu Jha
Riding Mountain 31 64 5 5 - Leanne Rowat
Riel 60 34 6 - - Christine Melnick
River East
45
50 3 2 - Bonnie Mitchelson
River Heights 25 34 38 3 - Jon Gerrard
Rossmere 50 44 3 3 - Erna Braun
Seine River 59 35 6 - - Theresa Oswald
Selkirk 45 50 5 - - David Bell
Southdale 49 48 3 - - Erin Selby
Spruce Woods 21 71 8 - - Cliff Cullen
St. Boniface 65 24 7 4 - Greg Selinger
St. James 48 44 3 5 - Deanne Cruthers
St. Johns 63 30 3 4 - Gord Mackintosh
St. Norbert 38 55 7 - - Karen Velthuys
St. Paul
31
59 8 - - Ron Schuler
St. Vital 65 31 4 - - Nancy Allan
Steinbach 8 88 4 - - Kevin Goertzen
Swan River 48 45 3 - - Ron Kostyshyn
The Maples 53 38 8 1 - Mohinder Saran
The Pas 72 25 3 - - Frank Whitehead
Thompson 68 18 14 - - Steve Ashton
Transcona 67 30 3 - - Daryl Reid
Tuxedo 33 52 12 3 - Heather Stefanson
Tyndall Park 67 23 8 2 - Ted Marcelino
Wolseley 65 17 5 13 - Rob Altemeyer

Riding changes since last prediction
For the most part, there were just some alterations from my last projection, despite the fact that it has been three months since my last one. I have now taken Swan River, Interlake, Selkirk and Brandon East out of the NDP category and put them into too close to call. Meanwhile, River Heights the only Liberal call I had is now too close to call as well. River East is the only riding that I had projected to go Tory that has been put into the too close to call column. Meanwhile, the Tories are now projected to win Dawson Trails and St. Norbert, both pick ups from my last projection. And, Fort Richmond is now projected to go NDP. 



Conclusion
It looks like the NDP will be headed for their fourth straight majority government. Their slim lead in the polls doesn't matter too much, due to the fact that their benefited from having much of the Tory vote being wasted in rural Manitoba. However, if the Tories win all of their too close to call seats, they can still win a majority of their own. In addition to the 24 seats I have them projected to win or are leading in, they would also have to win Interlake, Kirkfield Park, Southdale, Swan River and either St. James or River Heights to get a majority. Not outside the realm of possibility.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Forum Research poll riding by riding map

Last weekend, Forum Research published a poll of 40,000 Ontarians asking their voting intentions for the provincial election next week. The sample was so high, that they were able to get numbers for individual ridings. I have been trying franctically this past week to find some information about how they have local races, and I had only been able to find the GTA numbers and a few others. Well, this morning I got a surprise email from Krago who posts on the rabble.ca forums. He sent me an email with all of the numbers. And since this is an Elections Atlas, what better way to show those numbers than in map form? Here it is:

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith
The map is not too off my prediction, but there are a few anomalies I must investigate. Among the ridings I have not called for the Tories, they are apparently ahead in Brant, Kitchener Centre, Niagara Falls, St. Catharines, Brampton-Springdale, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Kenora-Rainy River and Ottawa-Orleans. Meanwhile, the Liberals are ahead in Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale, Windsor West, Perth-Wellington, Parkdale-High Park, York South-Weston, Kitchener-Waterloo and Ottawa Centre. The NDP was the big loser in this poll, but the one bright spot for them is they area ahead in London-Fanshawe despite my last prediction.

Of course, I have my suspicions about some of the local numbers, but for the most part this map is going to be pretty accurate.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Ontario election 2011 prediction (september 26)

Outline by S. Smith
This past weekend, Forum Research published the largest poll in Canadian history for the provincial election in Ontario. 40,000 people were polled, asking which party they were supporting. This poll was so large, individual riding results were also published within a certain degree of accuracy.

For this projection, I will only be looking at this particular poll, due to the fact that there is no way you can get more accurate than 40,000 respondents- the margin of error was just 0.5%. The results of the poll are quite interesting; it showed an exact tie between the Tories and the Liberals at 35%, with the NDP trailing not too far behind at 23%. The Greens meanwhile are at a respectable 6% province wide.

Looking at individual ridings, according to Forum Research these numbers translate to 47 seats each for the Liberals and Tories and just 13 for NDP. This is where the errors comes in. With a tie vote, the Liberals should have the edge in seats, but they don't. This can be explained by large rural swings against them, which I factored into my projection. But one statistic that doesn't sit right is the 13 seats for the NDP. That would mean a net increase of just three seats on a swing of 6%. This seams ridiculous considering the party was able to win 17 seats on just 18% of the vote in the 2008 federal election. But who knows, perhaps the party is doing well, but not in any concentrations.

The report published in the Toronto Star indicated that there were 28 seats within 5% of the vote, but didn't say who was leading or in second place in them. They were: Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough--Westdale, Beaches--East York, Bramalea—Gore—Malton, Brampton—Springdale, Halton, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener—Conestoga, Kitchener—Waterloo, London North Centre, London West, Mississauga East, Mississauga—Erindale, Mississauga South, Niagara Falls, Oak Ridges—Markham, Ottawa South, Pickering--Scarborough East, Richmond Hill, St. Catharines, Thornhill, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay--Superior North, Timmins--James Bay, Trinity—Spadina, Welland, Windsor—Tecumseh, Windsor West and York Centre.

Some of those seats make sense, but others are quite odd, like McGuinty in danger of losing his seat in Ottawa South, or the NDP at risk of losing Timmins—James Bay. Additionally, there are some notable absences from this list, like my own riding of Ottawa Centre. Some of the individual riding sample sizes are quite low however. Timmins—James Bay had just 54 respondents in the poll.

Sunday morning I looked for some individual riding numbers, and found some for the Greater Toronto Area. Looking at the map found that most ridings seemed to be accurate, but there are a few oddities. Specifically, how poor the NDP seems to be doing in Toronto, despite polls from earlier last week showing the party was doing better than they were at federally. Forum Research has the party losing Parkdale—High Park surprisingly, and in danger of losing the two strongholds of Trinity—Spadina and Beaches—East York. Also, the party is way behind in York South—Weston, despite some indications of a strong NDP campaign there. Also, the Tories being ahead in two Brampton ridings is a bit of a surprise, considering I would have expected other ridings to go first. I suppose many Indo-Canadians are warming up to the provincial Tories at the expense of the Liberals.

I also found some numbers from Bruce, Grey and Simcoe Counties. The big surprise here is the collapse of the Liberal vote in Huron—Bruce which is part of the reason why I suspect the Liberals are way behind in their rural seats.

And so, I am left to make a new projection from all of this. I didn't just copy and paste the poll numbers into the ridings, but I did make some adjustments where I could find the numbers. Some wonky ridings I nearly ignored completely, but then again, it's possible the polls are correct about those seats. I will be taking a close look at these seats in the next week and a half before election day.


Seat by seat projection

Riding
Lib
PC
NDP
Grn
Oth
Projected winner
Ajax—Pickering
43
37
13
6
1
Joe Dickson
Algoma—Manitoulin
37
15
41
5
1
Michael Mantha
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
36
41
16
6
1
Donna Skelly
Barrie
26
47
19
7
1
Rod Jackson
Beaches—East York
32
18
39
10
1
Michael Prue
Bramalea—Gore—Malton
36
32
27
4
1
Kuldip Kular
Brampton West
42
38
16
4
0
Vic Dhillon
Brampton—Springdale
38
39
17
5
1
Pam Hundal
Brant
40
34
20
4
2
Dave Levac
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound
29
42
13
11
5
Bill Walker
Burlington
31
46
17
5
1
Jane McKenna
Cambridge
25
45
24
5
1
Rob Leone
Carleton—Mississippi Mills
35
47
12
5
1
Jack MacLaren
Chatham-Kent—Essex
27
45
23
5
-
Rick Nicholls
Davenport
35
11
47
5
2
Jonah Schein
Don Valley East
43
30
22
4
1
Michael Coteau
Don Valley West
47
38
8
6
1
Kathleen Wynne
Dufferin—Caledon
24
49
10
17
0
Sylvia Jones
Durham
27
47
19
6
1
John O'Toole
Eglinton—Lawrence
50
36
9
4
1
Mike Colle
Elgin—Middlesex—London
25
49
21
4
1
Jeff Yurek
Essex
24
40
32
4
-
Dave Brister
Etobicoke Centre
47
35
12
4
2
Donna Cansfield
Etobicoke North
48
25
21
4
2
Shafiq Qaadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore
41
34
17
6
2
Laurel Broten
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell
37
44
13
5
1
Marlissa Gosselin
Guelph
45
28
15
11
1
Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk
20
60
15
4
1
Toby Barrett
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock
34
47
13
6
0
Laurie Scott
Halton
34
46
14
4
1
Ted Chudleigh
Hamilton Centre
23
18
50
7
2
Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek
26
28
40
4
2
Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain
30
27
37
4
2
Monique Taylor
Huron—Bruce
32
38
25
4
1
Lisa Thompson
Kenora—Rainy River
29
31
36
4
0
Sarah Campbell
Kingston and the Islands
44
29
20
5
2
John Gerretsen
Kitchener Centre
40
35
19
5
1
John Milloy
Kitchener—Conestoga
36
41
18
5
-
Michael Harris
Kitchener—Waterloo
37
43
14
5
1
Elizabeth Witmer
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex
35
40
19
4
2
Monte McNaughton
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
33
43
18
6
-
Randy Hiller
Leeds—Grenville
25
55
14
6
0
Steve Clark
London North Centre
39
32
21
7
1
Deb Matthews
London West
44
38
17
4
1
Chris Bentley
London—Fanshawe
35
29
30
4
2
Khalil Ramal
Markham—Unionville
48
29
18
4
1
Michael Chan
Mississauga East—Cooksville
42
38
15
4
1
Dipika Damerla
Mississauga South
44
40
11
4
1
Charles Sousa
Mississauga—Brampton South
43
36
16
4
1
Armit Mangat
Mississauga—Erindale
42
38
15
4
1
Harinder Takhar
Mississauga—Streetsville
44
36
13
7
-
Bob Delaney
Nepean—Carleton
30
49
13
7
1
Lisa MacLeod
Newmarket—Aurora
34
46
14
6
-
Frank Klees
Niagara Falls
42
36
16
5
2
Kim Craitor
Niagara West—Glanbrook
21
54
18
5
2
Tim Hudak
Nickel Belt
25
20
51
4
-
France Gelinas
Nipissing
34
46
16
4
-
Victor Fedeli
Northumberland—Quinte West
35
40
18
6
1
Rob Milligan
Oak Ridges—Markham
39
42
14
4
1
Farid Wassef
Oakville
43
39
11
5
2
Kevin Flynn
Oshawa
18
42
35
4
1
Jerry Ouellette
Ottawa Centre
32
20
39
8
1
Anil Naidoo
Ottawa South
42
35
16
6
1
Dalton McGuinty
Ottawa West—Nepean
37
41
16
5
1
Randall Denley
Ottawa—Orleans
43
41
11
4
1
Phil McNeely
Ottawa—Vanier
41
27
24
7
1
Madeleine Meilleur
Oxford
23
52
18
5
2
Ernie Hardeman
Parkdale—High Park
32
14
44
7
3
Cheri DiNovo
Parry Sound—Muskoka
19
48
22
10
1
Norm Miller
Perth—Wellington
37
42
13
6
2
Randy Pettapiece
Peterborough
42
29
23
5
1
Jeff Leal
Pickering—Scarborough East
42
36
16
5
1
Tracey MacCharles
Prince Edward—Hastings
34
39
21
4
2
Todd Smith
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke
18
65
13
4
0
John Yakabuski
Richmond Hill
42
37
14
6
1
Reza Moridi
St. Catharines
40
35
18
5
2
Jim Bradley
St. Paul's
43
28
19
8
2
Eric Hoskins
Sarnia—Lambton
23
45
26
4
2
Bob Bailey
Sault Ste. Marie
51
16
27
4
2
David Orazietti
Scarborough Centre
43
28
24
4
1
Brad Duguid
Scarborough Southwest
39
24
31
5
1
Lorenzo Berardinetti
Scarborough—Agincourt
50
27
17
4
2
Soo Wong
Scarborough—Guildwood
41
30
23
4
2
Margarett Best
Scarborough—Rouge River
45
21
28
3
3
Bas Balkissoon
Simcoe North
24
52
17
7
-
Garfield Dunlop
Simcoe—Grey
23
54
13
10
-
Jim Wilson
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
28
51
16
4
1
Jim McDonnell
Sudbury
49
14
32
4
1
Rick Bartolucci
Thornhill
41
45
9
4
1
Peter Shurman
Thunder Bay—Atikokan
32
23
41
4
0
Mary Kozorys
Thunder Bay—Superior North
42
12
42
4
0
Michael Gravelle or Steve Mantis
Timikaming—Cochrane
35
17
44
4
0
John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay
29
22
45
4
0
Gilles Bisson
Toronto Centre
44
20
26
8
2
Glen Murray
Toronto—Danforth
26
11
52
9
2
Peter Tabuns
Trinity—Spadina
33
14
45
7
1
Rasario Marchese
Vaughan
51
33
11
4
1
Greg Sorbara
Welland
24
33
38
4
1
Cindy Forster
Wellington—Halton Hills
27
55
11
7
-
Ted Arnott
Whitby—Oshawa
26
48
19
6
1
Christine Elliott
Willowdale
43
36
15
5
1
David Zimmer
Windsor West
33
20
43
4
-
Helmi Charif
Windsor—Tecumseh
41
20
34
4
1
Dwight Duncan
York Centre
41
40
13
5
1
Monte Kwinter
York South—Weston
39
14
42
4
1
Paul Ferriera
York West
51
17
27
4
1
Mario Sergio
York—Simcoe
24
52
17
6
1
Julia Munro

Seat changes since last projection
The Tories were the main beneficiary of this projection, gaining six seats in my theory that they are winning all of the rural Liberal seats. These are Huron—Bruce, Lambton—Kent—Middlesex, Northumberland—Quinte West, Perth—Wellington and Prince Edward—Hastings. Also, the absence of Ottawa West—Nepean on that close race list means that I believe it is firmly in the Tory column as well, making it the sixth Tory gain. Three of those Tory gains were from projected toss up seats. The NDP also gained on seat in this projection, in Algoma—Manitoulin (from toss up). Brampton—Springdale and Ottawa—Orleans are new toss ups, as those previously Liberal projected seats are now close races.

Conclusion
While I didn't come up with a tie in seats like Forum Research did, I did get a close result. Either the Tories or the Liberals can win this, but it will be a minority. The Tories are presently two seats behind. Even though I shifted many Liberal seats into the Tory column, I still couldn't get to the number provided in the forum research poll. And, I have no idea where they have the NDP gaining seats, but I suspect their low sample sizes in the north have meant that their numbers weren't too NDP friendly. In any event, I have the NDP winning at least 17 seats, not 13. And they will be holding the balance of power. 



Methodology/disclaimer

I have looked at each riding individually and tried to figure out what its voters might do in the upcoming election. For this, I looked at the riding history, and tried to come to a conclusion as to why certain parties did as well they did, or as poor as they did compared to other years. For certain ridings, I assumed a uniform swing, because I felt its historical voting trends follow the provincial voting trends. For other ridings, I looked at the results of the recent federal election and adjusted the results to reflect the most recent poll. And for other ridings, I could only make estimates, again using past election data. It all depended on the character of the riding.

Of course, there is bound to be some oversights on my part. If you think I have a riding wrong, please let me know. I want to get this as right as possible. The key to making correct projections is not all about the math. Rather, it's about the local conditions. That's why I will be looking at qualitative data just as much as I will be looking at quantitative.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Newfoundland and Labrador 2011 election prediction (Sept. 20)

Click to enlarge. Outline by S. Smith


A second poll has come out during the Newfoundland and Labrador election campaign, and it shows the beginnings of an NDP surge in the province, but with the Tories still firmly in landslide majority status.

A poll done my MQO Research this past weekend has the Tories still with a majority of popular support at 53%, the NDP firmly in second now at 29% and the Liberals trailing in third at 18%. The last poll (conducted by Corporate Research Associates) we saw from August, had the numbers at 54-24-22.

Unfortunately there are no regional breakdowns for any of these polls, and considering Newfoundland is such a diverse province geographically, I can only make guesses with my projection. I suspect much of the NDP surge is coming from the St. John's area, where they hold both federal seats. This is the same area where the Tories won massive majorities in the last provincial election in 2007. Even with the NDP polling much higher, these numbers will be hard for them to overcome. I'm not too familiar campaigns there, but if things are looking good for the NDP, the party can make some pick ups.They do have some strong candidates.

Riding by riding projections:

Riding PC Lib NDP Winning candidate
Baie Verte-Springdale 39 40 21 Neil Ward
Bay of Islands 44
43
13 Terry Loder
Bellevue 39
38
23 Calvin Peach
Bonavista North 51 27 22 Eli Cross
Bonavista South 77 9 14 Glen Little
Burgeo-La Poile 31 58 11 Andrew Parsons
Burin-Placentia West
46
5 49 Julie Mitchell
Cape St. Francis 58 8 34 Kevin Parsons
Carbonear-Harbour Grace 58 15 27 Jerome Kennedy
Cartwright-L'Anse au Clair 17 70 13 Yvonne Jones
Conception Bay East-Bell Island 53 10 37 David Brazil
Conception Bay South 61 12 27 Terry French
Exploits 53 23 24 Clayton Forsey
Ferryland 67 5 28 Keith Hutchings
Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune 46 32 22 Tracey Perry
Gander 52 19 29 Kevin O'Brien
Grand Bank 61 16 23 Darin King
Grand Falls-Windsor-Buchans 52 3 45 Susan Sullivan
Grand Falls-Windsor-Green Bay South 55 23 22 Ray Hunter
Harbour Main 65 7 28 Tom Hedderson
Humber East 67 7 26 Tom Marshall
Humber Valley 41 52 7 Dwight Ball
Humber West 47 30 23 Vaughn Granter
Kilbride 73 4 23 John Dinn
Labrador West 33 4 63 Tom Harris
Lake Melville 40 37 23 Keith Russell
Lewisporte 54 13 33 Wade Verge
Mount Pearl North 65 4 31 Steve Kent
Mount Pearl South 65 4 31 Paul Lane
Placentia-St. Mary's 62 17 21 Felix Collins
Port au Port 64 13 23 Tony Cornect
Port de Grave 30 47 23 Leanne Hussey
Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi 26 2 72 Lorraine Michael
St. Barbe 41 41 18 Wallace Young or Jim Bennett
St. George's-Stephenville East 34 43 23 Joan Burke
St. John's Centre 55 4 41 Shawn Skinner
St. John's East 51 6 43 Ed Buckingham
St. John's North 58 6 36 Bob Ridgley
St. John's South 59 4 38 Tom Osborne
St. John's West 55 12 33 Dan Crummell
Terra Nova 57 13 29 Sandy Collins
The Isles of Notre Dame 42 48 10 Danny Dumaresque
The Straits-White Bay North 25 50 25 Marshall Dean
Topsail 61 3 36 Paul Davis
Torngat Mountains 47 40 13 Patty Pottle
Trinity-Bay de Verde 55 19 26 Charlene Johnson
Trinity North 65 9 26 Rose Wiseman
Virginia Waters 59 4 37 Kathy Dunderdale

Conclusion
Not much has changed in this projection, despite the new NDP surge. The NDP support is not concentrated heavily enough in any seats to help them win many more, but we must keep a close eye on the St. John's area. So far, I only have them picking up Burin-Placentia West from the Tories, but it's still in the toss up zone. However, they are inching closer in some St. John's seats. The Liberals meanwhile would still form official opposition thanks to concentrated strengths in a number of seats. In this projection they have lost Bellevue and Bay of Islands, and there is now a tie in St. Barbe. All of these seats are still in the toss up zone, and aren't reflected as changes in the below chart. The only change there was the Torngat Mountains which have been removed from the toss up category and put into the Tory one.

For those keeping track, the NDP would need to win six more seats to get opposition status. They would have to gain St. John's East, St. John's Centre, Lake Melville, Grand-Falls-Windsor-Buchans, Conception Bay East-Bell Island and Bellevue. And that would still require a 10 point swing! However, with very little knowledge at this point, anything can happen.