tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post8529261596291917173..comments2024-03-22T03:33:16.945-04:00Comments on Canadian Election Atlas: B.C. federal riding boundary proposal analysis part 2 (City of Vancouver)Earl A. Washburnhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-81753402519897672582012-08-09T05:44:06.944-04:002012-08-09T05:44:06.944-04:00I see your point on Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, but th...I see your point on Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, but then again, it's a different voting culture. Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca is on the Island where the trend for many years has been NDP vs. Conservatives. Vancouver is a different story because despite their meltdown, there are still pockets of devout Liberal support. If ever the fed Liberals rebound even slightly in BC, it'll be in Vancouver. <br /><br />Southern Vancouver, as we've seen federally, provincially, and municipally is mostly centre-right. I can tell you (I am of Asian descent) that many Asian groups like the Chinese-Canadians are centre-right minded voters who want lower taxes, and so-called "tough-on-crime" and "family values" type policies. That's why the NDP will never win in Richmond, and will have a very hard time federally in Vancouver South.<br /><br />I also see your point about Dosanjh, but he is a polarizing figure. Even despite the intense conflict between the the Lib and CPC campaigns, the NDP ticked up only 1% despite the orange wave. The CPC candidate, despite being lodged with accusations, won with a solid margin. It shows the strength of centre-right support in Southern Vancouver.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-87758280159190852272012-08-09T04:58:26.312-04:002012-08-09T04:58:26.312-04:00This was certainly interesting. I'm just wonde...This was certainly interesting. I'm just wondering if you have done poll-by-poll analysis of these ridings. Your analysis, while brief and to-the-point, are a little simplistic. <br /><br />First, I agree with your analysis of Vancouver Quadra (comfortably Liberal due to Kitsilano), Vancouver Centre (tight three-way), Vancouver East (NDP stronghold). I also agree with Vancouver Kingsway (solid NDP).<br /><br />Where I have issue is your analysis of Granville and South. <br /><br />For example, my analysis has Vancouver Granville looking much tighter (remember to factor in advance polling!). On the other hand, Vancouver South looks solid for the Conservatives. The CPC's best polls were actually in the Killarney area (heavy Chinese-Canadian population here), so cutting out Marpole (which the CPC did poorly in)and some of Oakridge doesn't really damage the Conservatives' comfy 8% margin in 2011. I'd encourage you to re-evaluate these two ridings.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-58892220722525901132012-07-07T17:18:51.360-04:002012-07-07T17:18:51.360-04:00At least that, yes. However, Vancouver South loses...At least that, yes. However, Vancouver South loses a lot of its Chinese population in this proposal.Earl A. Washburnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-61865055804322260532012-07-05T18:12:04.198-04:002012-07-05T18:12:04.198-04:00I think I read that there are two or three times a...I think I read that there are two or three times as many Chinese-Canadians as there are Indo-Canadians in Vancouver SouthDLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11587165866597795302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-48450337655847204182012-07-05T17:40:24.814-04:002012-07-05T17:40:24.814-04:00She could run in Vancouver Granville, especially i...She could run in Vancouver Granville, especially if she lives there. Vancouver South is winnable for the NDP with the right candidate. But, running someone Chinese might alienate the South Asians and vice-versa.Earl A. Washburnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06487571623276436603noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5190378770423658202.post-17759827681297634422012-07-05T12:55:47.256-04:002012-07-05T12:55:47.256-04:00Here is another thing to consider. What if Wai You...Here is another thing to consider. What if Wai Young decides to run in Granville since it grabs some of her strongest areas? The Liberal vote in Vancouver South was very inflated as a result of Dosanjh being the incumbent and a lot of people who would otherwise have voted NDP in Van South probably voted for him. So, what happens in 2015 if Wai Young flees to Granville, the federal Liberals are going no where and they run some non-entity who takes them to a "Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca post-Keith Martin-style" result and the NDP nominated a strong candidate from the Chinese community?<br /><br />I'm not saying an NDP win in Van South is likely, but its not impossible under those circumstances.DLhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11587165866597795302noreply@blogger.com