Today marks the
first federal by-election of the 42nd Parliament, just as
Canada's new Liberal government enters its sophomore year. Voters in
the southern Alberta riding of Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner head
to the polls to elect a new Member of Parliament, following the death
of Conservative MP Jim Hillyer who died last Spring due to
cardiomyopathy. Hillyer was first elected to Parliament in 2011 in
the neighbouring riding of Lethbridge, and switched to the Medicine
Hat riding for the 2015 election when its boundaries shifted to
encompass his hometown of Raymond, located just south of Lethbridge.
While it pains me to speak ill of the dead, Hillyer's short tenure in
Parliament was criticized by even those in his party for his 'poor
service of his constituents'. When he first ran for office in 2011,
he was criticized for not attending any candidate debates and for
embellishing the truth in his campaign literature. It did not matter
though, as he was easily elected in both 2011 and 2015 (though in a
mostly different riding the second time), due to running in true blue
Conservative country: southern Alberta.
 |
| Map of the riding |
Since the 2015
federal election, the Justin Trudeau-led Liberals have enjoyed a
tremendous honeymoon period, and are still polling nearly ten points
higher than what they won in the last federal election, witch much of
this coming at the expense of the (for all intents and purposes)
leaderless NDP. The Conservatives, who are also leaderless, have not
been hurt by The Liberal honeymoon, as they are polling at about what
they won in 2015. Trudeau remains a very popular figure across the
country, and even has a large swath of adoring fans in southern
Alberta. While he is still mostly detested in that corner of the
country, a rally he attended two weeks ago in Medicine Hat attracted
nearly 2000 people.
Geography
 |
| Map of Medicine Hat neighbourhoods |
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner can be found on the southern and
southeastern boundary of Alberta. It is shaped like a backward “L”,
with Saskatchewan on the east, and Montana on the south. In the west,
the riding begins at the Belly River, and wraps around the Lethbridge
area and Taber County, ending at CFB Suffield in the north. While
the riding appears to be rural, and many have claimed it is, this is
a misnomer. The City of Medicine Hat dominates the riding, as it is
home to nearly two thirds of the riding's population. The rest of the
riding is mostly empty ranching land, or oil and gas wells. Other
than Medicine Hat, the riding is home to a few smaller communities,
such as Cardston, Magrath, Raymond and Bow Island, while the Medicine
Hat suburb of Redcliff is the riding's second largest city or town.
The riding is also home to Canada's largest Indian Reserve (second
largest in population), Blood #148, a Blackfoot reserve which is home
to over 4000 people. The people in Blood #148 will be voting in their
second federal by-election in just over two years, as they were
previously located in the riding of Macleod which had a by-election
in June 2014.
Demographics
Except for about a 9% Aboriginal population, the riding is
overwhelmingly White. But despite this, the riding does have some
interesting cultural and ethnic demographics. The riding has the
highest ethnically German population in the country, with 36% of
people claiming it. Germans immigrated to southern Alberta in the
late 19th and early 20th centuries, and have
long since been integrated into the country. Still though, 7% of
residents indicate German as their first language in the census. This
makes German the riding's #2 language, and some rural areas in the
central part of the riding have large numbers (over 40%) of German
speakers. After German, the riding is also home to significant
populations with English, Scottish and Irish backgrounds. 10% of the
riding claims some sort of Aboriginal background, most of this being
Blackfoot. Blackfoot is the native tongue of about 1% of the riding.
The riding also has an interesting religious makeup, as it is home to
Canada's largest Mormon population. Over a quarter of the riding is
considered “Other Christian”, with much of this is Mormon, which
was also the religion of Jim Hillyer. Mormons began settling the
western part of the riding in the late 19th Century, and
built the first Mormon Temple outside the United States in Cardston
in 1887. Hillyer's hometown of Raymond was also settled by Mormons.
The “other Christian” group also includes a sizable Mennonite
population who are the descendants of some of the early German
settlers to this region. In total, 72% of the riding is Christian,
including 21% being Catholic, and 10% being United Church. Over one
quarter of the riding has no religion.
The riding is poorer than the province as a whole. The median income
is about $30,000 compared to $36,000 for all of Alberta. The average
income is $40,000 which is over $10,000 less than the provincial
average. While the riding has a reputation for cattle ranches and
oil and gas extraction, the dominance of City of Medicine Hat in the
riding has resulted in the leading industries in the riding being
health care and social assistance, retail trade and construction.
History
A riding known as “Medicine Hat” existed all the way from 1908
until the most recent redistribution before last year's election.
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner was originally going to be named
just “Medicine Hat”, but the addition of the Cardston and Warner
areas, which have not traditionally been lumped in with Medicine Hat
in one riding meant that a name change was preferred.
From 1905 when Alberta joined confederation until 1908, Medicine Hat,
then a town of 3000 people, was located in the riding of “Alberta
(provisional district)”. In 1908 a riding called “Medicine Hat”
was first created. This first Medicine Hat riding included a large
swath of southeastern Alberta, including Lethbridge (then a home to
2000 people). In the north, the riding extended as far as (but not
including) Hanna and as far as Strathmore in the west. Subsequent
redistributions shrunk the riding down further, with a new Lethbridge
riding being created in the west. The Cardston and Warner parts of
the current riding of Medicine Hat—Cardston--Warner were usually
located in the Lethbridge riding, but the Warner area was added to
Medicine Hat in the 1966 redistribution but was removed once again in
1987, joining back with the Lethbridge riding. In the 2013
redistribution, the Cardston area was added to the riding for the
first time since the 1908 redistribution and the Warner area was also
added back to the riding. Both of these regions were previously in
the Lethbridge riding. The 2013 redistribution also brought in the
Blood 148 Indian Reserve which was previously located in the Macleod
riding. To compensate, the Medicine Hat riding lost Taber and Newell
Counties (which includes Brooks) to the new riding of Bow River.
These counties have traditionally been part of the Medicine Hat
riding, and this region had been continuously part of the riding
since 1976. Also in 2013, the riding lost a small strip of territory
in the far north of the riding (between the Red Deer River and the
Suffield Air Force Base) to the new riding of Battle River—Crowfoot.
 |
| MPs for Medicine Hat and Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner |
In its early days, the riding was competitive for the Liberals and
even was won by the Progressive Party in 1921. However, following
World War II, right wing parties have won every single election in
Medicine Hat except for the first Trudeaumania in 1968. That election
was an anomaly though, as the riding's MP, Bud Olson had switched
from the quickly dying Social Credit Party to the Liberals, and was
elected thanks to the splitting of the right wing vote between the
SoCreds and the Progressive Conservatives. Olson had only beat his
Tory opponent by 200 votes, and was shown the door in the next
election when the Social Credit vote collapsed and Progressive
Conservative candidate Bert Hargrave won. The Tories held the seat
from that point on until 1993 when the Reform Party won the seat for
the first time. Reform became Canadian Alliance which merged with the
Progressive Conservatives in 2003 to form the Conservative Party and
the Conservatives have won this seat ever since.
The 1993 election was the last to see the winning candidate receive
less than 60% of the vote, and was the last time the Liberals won
more than 20% of the vote. The riding usually votes overwhelmingly
for the main right wing candidate, and only sees somewhat competitive
elections when the right wing vote is split. In recent elections, the
true battle has been for second place. In 2015, the Liberals finished
second with 18% of the vote. In both 2008 and 2011 the second place
party was the NDP which won 11% and 13% respectively.
Political
geography
Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner is a very, very Conservative riding.
Except for the Blood 148 Indian Reserve, every single poll voted
Conservative in 2015. Even in the city of Medicine Hat. And outside
of the Blood 148 reserve, every single poll has voted Conservative in
every single election since the Conservative merger in 2013. And most
polls are won by quite large amounts.
The rural areas of the riding are much more Conservative than
Medicine Hat itself. All of the rural counties in the riding gave
Hillyer at least 80% of the vote in 2015, and only three rural towns
did not give him at least 80% of the vote. Home to a large number of
Mennonites and Mormons, Cardston County, in the riding's far west was
the best municipality for Hillyer, where he won 89% of the vote. His
worst municipality was Medicine Hat, where he still won 64.5% of the
vote. However on the Blood Reserve, he won a minuscule 2.5% of the
vote. There, the NDP (despite finishing third in the overall vote)
won 62%, with the Liberals coming in second with 34%. Medicine Hat
was the best municipality for both the Liberals and the NDP who won
22% and 9.5% of the vote respectively.
Within the city of Medicine Hat itself, Hillyer's best neighbourhood
was Saamis Heights, a newer suburb on the city's south side, where he
won 73% of the vote. Hillyer's worst neighbourhood was the Downtown,
where he won 47% of the vote. Downtown Medicine Hat was the best
neighbourhood for the NDP's candidate, who won 18% of the vote. The
best neighbourhood for the Liberal candidate was the Southeast Hill /
South Flats area, on the south side of downtown, where they won 31%
of the vote.
 |
| 2015 federal election results by community |
Overall, the best poll for the Conservatives was poll #170, which
covers the community of Leavitt, south of Cardston. Leavitt is a
Mormon village in Cardston County, which was founded by Thomas Rowell
Leaveitt, who had fled the United States after a crackdown on
polygamy laws. Hillyer won 94% of the vote there, with just ten
people voting for all of the other parties combined. On the other end
of the spectrum, there were three polls on the Blood Reserve where
Hillyer won a grand total of zero votes (polls #148, #149 and #150).
These polls cover the northeastern half of the reserve, and are close
to Lethbridge.
 |
| Google Streetview photo of Leavitt, Alberta |
 |
| Google Streetview photo of the Blood Reserve |
When it comes to federal elections, voters in the Medicine Hat area
are very inelastic. That is, they tend to not change their votes too
often, even when the rest of the country is. Despite the
Conservatives losing a lot of support across the country in 2011,
they actually gained a swing 0.1% in the riding. The Liberals did see
an uptick in support, receiving a swing of 6.8%, but this pails in
comparison to the 21% national swing they won. Overall, the two party
average swing to the Liberals was 3.3%. The Liberals saw the biggest
swings in their direction in Medicine Hat and in the Blood Reserve.
The Conservatives saw some reasonable swings in more rural areas, and
especially in Cypress County.
In the last provincial election, the election results were not as homogeneous as in past federal elections. The NDP orange crush was big
enough to not only win a few polls outside of the Blood reserve
(which they won by nearly 90% of the vote), but an entire riding:
Medicine Hat, which covers the northern and central parts of the
city. Within the Medicine Hat provincial riding, the NDP won the
central part of the city, while the Wildrose won the more suburban
parts, and the PCs won a few polls in the Norwood and Meadowlands
neighbourhoods. Outside of Medicine Hat and the Blood First Nation,
the NDP did not win any polls. Most of the rural polls voted for the
Wildrose Party, except for a few scattering polls that the Tories
won.
Historically, the provincial riding of Cardston-Taber-Warner which
overlaps the western third of the Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner
riding has been very favourable to right wing third parties. In the
2004 provincial election, it was the only riding to vote for the
Alberta Alliance (which later became the Wildrose Party), which
helped give that party the credibility which led to its future
success.
Outlook
The next MP for Medicine Hat—Cardston—Warner will likely be
Conservative candidate Glen Motz, who is a retired Medicine Hat
police officer. Motz is a social conservative, who became a police
officer after following “God's call”, and has a bachelor's degree
in religious education. His main opponent is Liberal candidate Stan
Sakamoto, a Medicine Hat businessman who is credited as being the
first Japanese-Canadian to be born there. Despite a Justin Trudeau
rally in Medicine Hat that attracted 2000 people, it would be a huge
surprise if Sakamoto could pull this off. Despite going NDP in the
provincial election, Medicine Hat is a fairly conservative city, and
the rural part of this riding is about as conservative as it gets.
Let's not forget there are other candidates running as well. The NDP
is running Bev Waege, who was the party's candidate in
Cypress-Medicine Hat in the 2015 election, but was not swept up in
the orange wave, finishing third. The Greens are not running any
candidates, but look for the Christian Heritage Party candidate (and
leader) Rod Taylor to do well here- and by that I mean possibly
finish ahead of the NDP. The Libertarians are also running a
candidate, as is the Rhinoceros Party.
While I predict the Conservatives will easily win this by-election, I
predict the Liberals will win a few polls in central Medicine Hat.
They will also likely win the Blood 148 Reserve back from the NDP, as
they did in the 2014 Macleod by-election (albeit with comically low
turnout). We'll see just how well they do when the polls close at
8:30 Mountain Time (10:30 Eastern).
