Friday, March 30, 2012

2012 Alberta election prediction (March 31) - part 1

Current prediction. Toss ups in grey.
The writs dropped for the 2012 provincial election in Alberta this week, and it's expected to be an exciting race. Alberta, well known for electing landslide majorities in its elections, may not do so this time. The governing Progressive Conservative Party is in danger of losing an election for the first time in 41 years. The election has been called for April 23.

Two recent polls have shown the upstart "Wildrose Party", led by Danielle Smith ahead of the governing Tories. The Wildrose Party is a right wing populist party, that has gone under a number of name changes and mergers since its founding as the Alberta Alliance in 2002. The party had some success, electing one MLA in 2004, but they lost it in the 2008 election. However, the party elected Ms. Smith in 2009 and has been moving up in popular opinion ever since. After a by-election win and a number of floor crossings, the party now is the third largest party in the Alberta legislature with four seats.

A poll released Wednesday by Forum Research showed the Wildrose Party in the lead with 41%, and the Tories in second at 31%. Yesterday, Campaign Research released a poll with similar numbers. Wildrose was at 40% and the Tories at 30%. If these numbers turn out true, the Wildrose Party may be heading for a majority.

Riding locations.


It was these two polls that formed the basis of my first Alberta election prediction. It should be known that predicting this election will be very hard, because the lack of history behind the Wildrose Party. But, we can look at the past successes by such right wing populist movements like the federal Reform Party. It is clear from these numbers that the Wildrose Party will sweep the province, but the question remains, where will the Tories win seats? Who are their strongest incumbents who will be able to withstand the Wildrose surge? Hopefully the campaign will reveal this. If you have any feedback, please let me know. Part of my prediction process is reader input!

Seat by seat prediction


Riding
PC
WRP
Lib
NDP
Oth
Projected winning candidate
Airdrie
25
58
6
11
-
Rob Anderson
Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater
41
42
5
12
-
Travis Olson
Banff-Cochrane
17
40
28
17
-
Tom Copithorne
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock
39
43
7
8
2
Link Byfield
Battle River-Wainwright
48
42
4
5
1
Doug Griffiths
Bonnyville-Cold Lake
44
46
4
8
-
Roy Doonanco
Calgary-Acadia
31
54
7
8
-
Richard Jones
Calgary-Bow
29
48
16
6
1
Tim Dyck
Calgary-Buffalo
18
42
32
7
1
Mike Blanchard
Calgary-Cross
38
44
6
10
2
Hardyal Mann
Calgary-Currie
19
41
26
7
7
Corrie Adolph
Calgary-East
38
46
10
8
-
Jesse Minhas
Calgary-Elbow
29
43
19
5
4
James Cole
Calgary-Fish Creek
30
53
11
6
-
Heather Forsyth
Calgary-Foothills
31
45
17
5
-
Dustin Nau
Calgary-Fort
32
43
5
17
1
Jeevan Mangat
Calgary-Glenmore
14
57
22
7
-
Paul Hinman
Calgary-Greenway
28
52
11
9
-
Ron Leech
Calgary-Hawkwood
22
51
18
7
2
David Yager
Calgary-Hays
32
53
9
6
-
Wayne Anderson
Calgary-Klein
28
48
11
11
2
Jeremy Nixon
Calgary-Lougheed
36
49
10
5
-
John Carpay
Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill
31
47
15
6
1
Roy Alexander
Calgary-McCall
22
42
30
6
-
Grant Galpin
Calgary-Mountain View
9
43
39
8
1
Shane McAllister
Calgary-North West
24
57
11
6
2
Chris Challis
Calgary-Northern Hills
32
50
12
6
-
Prasad Panda
Calgary-Shaw
35
51
7
6
1
Jeff Wilson
Calgary-South East
34
53
7
6
-
Bill Jarvis
Calgary-Varsity
19
46
27
6
2
Rob Solinger
Calgary-West
26
55
12
6
1
Andrew Constantinidis
Cardston-Taber-Warner
9
80
4
7
-
Gary Bikman
Chestermere-Rocky View
28
54
10
8
-
Bruce McAllister
Cypress-Medicine Hat
28
45
17
10
-
Drew Barnes
Drayton Valley-Devon
34
47
9
10
-
Dean Shular
Drumheller-Stettler
34
49
8
9
-
Rick Strankman
Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley
23
59
2
16
-
Kelly Hudson
Edmonton-Beverly-Clearview
26
28
6
38
2
Deron Bilous
Edmonton-Calder
23
31
5
41
-
David Eggen
Edmonton-Castle Downs
38
27
20
12
3
Thomas Lukaszuk
Edmonton Centre
17
29
31
23
-
Laurie Blakeman
Edmonton-Decore
32
31
22
15
-
Janice Sarich
Edmonton-Ellerslie
30
30
17
20
3
Naresh Bhardwaj or Jackie Lovely
Edmonton-Glenora
27
28
23
17
5
Don Koziak
Edmonton-Gold Bar
24
27
29
16
4
Josipa Petrunic
Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood
17
22
4
53
4
Brian Mason
Edmonton-Manning
30
29
14
23
4
Peter Sandhu
Edmonton-McClung
34
26
29
8
3
David Xiao
Edmonton-Meadowlark
20
28
38
11
3
Raj Sherman
Edmonton-Mill Creek
39
30
15
16
-
Gene Zwozdesky
Edmonton-Mill Woods
26
32
21
16
5
Joanne Autio
Edmonton-Riverview
23
30
35
12
-
Arif Khan
Edmonton-Rutherford
29
29
26
12
4
Fred Horne or Kyle McLeod
Edmonton-South West
37
33
22
8
-
Matt Jeneroux
Edmonton-Strathcona
13
27
7
53
-
Rachel Notley
Edmonton-Whitemud
45
27
18
7
3
David Hancock
Fort McMurray-Conklin
33
38
18
10
-
Doug Faulkner
Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
30
41
19
10
-
Guy Boutilier
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
41
44
4
10
1
Shannon Stubbs
Grande Prairie-Smoky
36
48
5
11
-
Todd Loewen
Grande Prairie-Wapiti
40
39
9
12
-
Wayne Drysdale
Highwood
23
61
7
9
-
Danielle Smith
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake
30
49
8
12
1
Kerry Towle
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills
36
42
10
12
-
Shayne Saskiw
Lacombe-Ponoka
39
44
8
9
-
Rod Fox
Leduc-Beaumont
37
43
9
9
2
David Stasiewich
Lesser Slave Lake
35
43
13
9
-
Darryl Boisson
Lethbridge-East
14
41
33
12
-
Kent Prestage
Lethbridge-West
13
42
29
16
-
Kevin Kinahan
Little Bow
23
61
6
10
-
Ian Donovan
Livingstone-Macleod
29
48
11
11
1
Pat Stier
Medicine Hat
15
45
28
11
1
Blake Pedersen
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills
27
61
4
8
-
Bruce Rowe
Peace River
33
44
7
16
-
Alan Forsyth
Red Deer-North
29
45
15
10
1
Randy Weins
Red Deer-South
26
44
20
9
1
Nathan Stephan
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre
34
53
5
8
-
Joe Anglin
Sherwood Park
33
36
18
7
6
Garnett Genius
Spruce Grove-St. Albert
33
33
21
7
-
Doug Horner or Travis Hughes
St. Albert
26
38
28
7
1
James Burrows
Stony Plain
34
47
11
8
-
Hal Tagg
Strathcona-Sherwood Park
43
37
13
8
-
Dave Quest
Strathmore-Brooks
40
46
5
9
-
Alex Wychopen
Vermilion-Lloydminster
36
53
4
7
-
Danny Hozack
West Yellowhead
23
36
17
14
10
Stuart Taylor
Wetaskiwin-Camrose
40
45
6
10
1
Trevor Miller
Whitcourt-Ste. Anne
31
56
5
8


Maryann Chichak

This projection reduces the Tories to nine seats (plus three ties). All but four are tossups, within 5% of the next best party. The NDP would double its seat total to four, while the Liberals would also win 4. However, all but one are toss ups. This leaves the Wildrose Party at a whopping 67 seats (plus three ties). A significant number of these are still toss ups however, that can go back to the Tories if they gain any ground.

I should also mention that I am working on getting the redistributed numbers from the 2008 election, as Alberta redistributed their riding boundaries since then. Some of the figures in this chart are based on redistributed numbers, and some are estimates for the time being.

This wraps up part one of my projection. Part 2 will look at the election more in depth, and will also look at some key races. I hope to post part 2 in the coming days.

Friday, March 23, 2012

NDP leadership endorsement map - final edition

The NDP leadership election is right around the corner, and I have finally compiled the map of political endorsements for the candidates. Since I last published my map in February, a lot has happened, including one of the candidates (Romeo Saganash) dropping out. There have been a huge swath of endorsements, so many, that I'm afraid my map will not be 100% accurate. I did try my best, but I haven't had the time over the last few weeks to religiously follow all the endorsements I'm afraid. So I did my best, following twitter feeds and news items from candidates websites.

If I missed any endorsements, I apologize. Unfortunately, since I am actually going to the convention this weekend, I won't have the time to fix my maps. But please let me know by leaving a comment.

Without further ado, here is the map:

If nothing else, this map is a good indicator of where NDP support is strongest across the country. It goes without saying that endorsements mean very little in the party leadership race. Each endorser has but one vote, and is equal to the endorsement of any other party member, including myself. But, due to the fact it is unlikely the party will release provincial results, this map shows the next best thing.

As I mentioned in my last post about the NDP leadership, BC and Ontario are the most important provinces, with over half of the memberships there. Both provinces are the most eclectic, as all of the major candidates have been able to gain important endorsements there. For the record though, Topp appears to have the edge in BC while Mulcair has the edge in Ontario.

Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec will also be key provinces. Alberta has been a dead zone for endorsements however, as the party has very few elected politicians there. Saskatchewan is dominated by Topp, Manitoba is an Ashton vs Dewar race, and Quebec will be a wash for Mulcair. Nova Scotia has had a lot of endorsements as well. I wish I had the time to make a Halifax inset on the map, so I apologize for the clutter. But anyways, despite forming government there, the Nova Scotia NDP membership is quite low, and wont be a huge factor this weekend.

Well, I wish I could provide more analysis, but this will have to do for now. I do have to get my rest before I head off to Toronto tomorrow. I will be tweeting from the convention floor, so don't forget to follow me! The first ballot will be tallied Saturday morning. Enjoy the convention, everyone. I know I will!

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Toronto--Danforth by-election guide


Riding map.
Tomorrow, residents of Toronto—Danforth will be going to the polls to elect a new Member of Parliament in the first by-election of the 41st Parliament. The riding has been vacant since last August, upon the death of its last MP, former NDP leader Jack Layton.

Over the last few months, I have done an analysis of the riding's demographics and boundary history. Today, I'll be discussing the last few elections (with maps), as well as a brief synopsis of the candidates, and even a prediction.

The riding under its current boundaries has existed since the last redistribution in 2004. Before that, Toronto--Danforth's boundaries were quite similar, but some of the current riding (the southeast corner) was in the riding of Beaches--East York. Prior to the 2004 election, Toronto--Danforth was represented by Liberal Dennis Mills, while Beaches--East York was represented by Maria Minna. Both had won their previous elections in 2000 quite handily. Mills defeated the NDP's candidate, Paula Turtle, a labour lawyer. Mills won 52% of the vote, while Turtle won 28%. Turtle's only strength was in the Riverdale nieghbourhood. The rest of the riding was dominated by Mills. In 2000, every poll in Beaches--East York, including the part now in Toronto--Danforth was won by Liberal MP Maria Minna. 
2000

The map at left shows the polls where the Liberals (Mills and Minna) won in red, compared to the polls where the NDP won (Turtle) in orange. The map shows the present riding boundaries. The thicker black line shows where the boundary between Toronto--Danforth and Beaches--East York was. 

The map is not shaded, as I just took the information from the Pundit's Guide. However, in the very least it shows the Liberal dominance in the riding at the time, and also shows that the NDP was able to get at least a cluster of polls together in the Broadview area.

2004
In 2003, former Toronto city councillor Jack Layton became leader of the federal N.D.P. No MP stood aside for him to take a seat in the House of Commons. Instead, Layton waited for the 2004 election the following year to try and get elected. Layton chose the riding of Toronto--Danforth to run. The riding had been the strongest in the city for the NDP in the past, and was also the riding that encompassed Layton's former seat on Toronto City Council. Nevertheless, he still had an uphill challenge trying to unseat the popular incumbent, Dennis Mills. 

2004
Layton did manage to eek out a victory in the riding, by a narrow 2,400 vote margin. Layton won 46%, to Mills' 41%. As you can see from the map at left, the riding ended up being quite polarized between the north and the south. 

The south part of the riding was represented by Layton on Toronto City Council, which is probably why his biggest numbers came from that area. Mills had his strongest support in the north part of the riding. Also, Layton won all the polls from the former Beaches--East York riding which hadn't previously been represented by Mills.

Layton's best poll was the one between Bain Ave and Sparkhall Ave. This poll is home to the Bain Avenue Co-op. Mills' best poll was the nearby Riverdale hospital.

2006
By the 2006 election, Layton had now been leader for three years, and the riding became more safe for him. However, the Liberals were eager to take the riding back, as it was the only riding in the city they did not have. To oppose Layton, they looked for a star candidate, and found lawyer Deborah Coyne, who was a member of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada at the time. 
2006
Coyne would not be the strong candidate that Mills was, and couple that with the nation-wide decline of the Liberal Party at the time, she did not pose that much of a threat to Layton. Layton increased his vote total to 48%, while Coyne received 34% of the vote. The margin of victory was over 7,000 votes. 

The Liberal strength in the riding again came from the north. But as you can see, the NDP encroached on this area, relegating most of the Liberal support to the more wealthier polls along the Don River. 

Once again, Layton's best poll was the one between Bain and Sparkhall. The Liberals only got a majority of the vote in two polls. The best Liberal poll was along Torrens Ave between Broadview and Pape, in Pape Village. 

2008 
By the time of the next election in 2008, Layton's seat had become even safer. Liberal fortunes were down even more across the country, and the NDP was up. Layton had been joined in parliament by fellow Toronto MPs Peggy Nash and spouse, Olivia Chow in his caucus, who had each won their elections in 2006. The Liberals tried to challenge Layton again, but they chose a weaker candidate, and put less resources into the race. 

2008
For their candidate, the Liberals chose Andrew Lang, son of former Saskatchewan MP Otto Lang. Lang was the manager of stakeholder relations for the Ontario Chiropractic Association.

Once again, the Liberals would be no match for Layton. The NDP leader once again beat out his Liberal rival by 7,000 votes. However, he did go down in percentage of the popular vote, to 45%. Lang however received 29%, which was also down for the Liberals. These decreased can be attributed the strong Green Party candidacy of Sharon Howarth, who finished 3rd, ahead of the Tories with 13% of the vote. 

The map shows much lighter orange shades for the NDP, as their vote share went down. However, they still picked up polls from the Liberals, whose vote share also went down. The Liberals did pick up some former NDP polls however, including a strong showing in the Broadview neighbourhood, where if you recall, was the only part of the riding the NDP won back in 2000. This is where the increase in the Green support in 2008 hurt the NDP the most. 

The Liberals were relegated to only a handful of polls in their previous strongholds in the north part of the riding. In fact their strongest polls didn't come from the area along the Don River like they had in 2006, but in Greek Town.

The best poll for the NDP in 2008 was not the Bain Ave co-op anymore. The Greens got a sizable percentage of the vote there, which ate into NDP support. The best NDP poll was on the south end of Blake St, which is an impoverished area of the riding. The demographic of this area is not the type to vote Green, and therefore the NDP was not harmed there by the increase in Green support. The strongest Liberal poll was once again the Riverdale Hopital, where they got 50% of the vote.

2011
The 2011 election saw the NDP surge across the country, which vaulted the party into opposition status. Jack Layton's own riding of Toronto--Danforth was not immune to the NDP surge of 2011. Once again, Layton would be opposed by Andrew Lang, who he had beaten in 2008. 
2011
The 2011 election in Toronto--Danforth wasn't even close to being close. Layton defeated Lang by nearly 21,000 votes. He increased his share of the vote to an unprecedented 61% of the vote. Lang on the other hand, received 18% of the vote, barely hanging on to second place. The third place Conservative candidate, Katarina Von Koenig was close behind Lang with 14% of the vote.

The 2011 election map was indicative of the strong result that Layton received. He won every single poll in the riding. His strength was once again in the south of the riding, but he was able to win everywhere. Layton's worst neighbourhoods were in the far north along the Don River, and in Greek Town, two areas of past Liberal strength. 

Layton's strongest poll was once again the Bain Ave co-op, where he won 83% of the vote. Layton's worst poll was in Woodbine Heights, where he got 41% of the vote, but still won it. The Conservatives were strong in the neighbourhood, and nearly won the poll, coming 10 votes short with 36% of the vote.

2011 - 2nd place
 Because Layton won every single poll in 2011, I made a second map showing who finished 2nd in each poll. Note how the Conservatives were strong in those wealthier Don River polls where the Liberals once had strength. The Liberals however were stronger in more ethnic neighbourhoods, like Greek Town. And you will see on the map, one poll coloured Green. Yes, that is the infamous Bain Ave co-op where Layton got 83%, but the Greens were in 2nd place with 8%.

NDP change (2008-2011)
I also made a map showing the change in the NDP vote between 2008 and 2011. The NDP increased their share of the vote in every single polling district between the last two elections. Although, there were some areas that were more averse to switching their votes to NDP than others. Woodbine Heights for example didn't swing that much. Another area is that Blake St poll, where the NDP was so strong, that their vote share had been nearly capped anyways.

2012
And so, we've come to the 2012 by-election. The NDP is still polling relatively well across Canada, depending on which pollster you ask. They have dropped in support since 2011, and with out their fearless leader representing the riding, it is quite likely the NDP will see a decrease in their support from the 61% that Layton got last year.  The NDP is running law professor and human rights lawyer Craig Scott. He is quite a strong candidate, but perhaps not the star candidate one might expect would want to run in such a safe seat. Scott does face weak opposition, though. The Liberals are running Grant Gordon, an advertising executive. The Tories are running Andrew Keyes, a communications consultant. The Greens are running community activist Adriana Mugnatto-Hamu.



The real test for the Liberals will be if they can capitalize on their recent gains in the polls, especially in Ontario. It is not realistic that they will win the riding, but a win for them will be a strong 2nd place showing. The Tories have even less of a shot at the riding, but it would be a huge win for them to overtake the Liberals in 2nd place. They did come close in 2011. The Greens will want to increase their share of the vote from the 6% they got in 2011. A 3rd place showing like they got in 2008 would be a huge victory for the party that has been largely ignored recently.  As for the NDP, it would not be a simple victory for the party to just win the by-election. Anything close would be seen as a loss for the party. Getting a majority of the vote will be important to show that they are still the main left of centre party in Canadian politics. Anything lower than the mid-40s that Layton got in the past (of what the provincial NDP normally gets in this riding) will be seen as a defeat.

Prediction
By-elections are always hard to predict, but at least I will give it a try. Back in February, Forum research released a poll for the riding that showed that the NDP will easily win it, with  61% of the vote (close to Layton's percentage). The Liberals were at 19% and the Tories at 14%. The Greens were at 4% in the poll. These poll numbers nearly mirror the 2011 results in the riding.

So, this brings me to my prediction. I see the NDP range in this riding between 54% (what they got in the provincial election) and 61% (what they got in the federal election). I will average this out and err on the side of the poll, and say the NDP will get 57%. The Tories will probably get 12% of the vote, as they are not as popular as they were in 2011. The Tories have a ceiling of 14% here, and a floor of 6%. I can see the Tories getting less than 14%, if right of centre voters see the Liberals as having any shot of winning this race. The Greens don't often do well in by-elections, and will be looking at probably 4%, where they were at for the 2011 provincial election. There are many independent and other party candidates in the race, and together will probably get 2% of the vote. This leaves the Liberals with 25% of the vote, which seems like a good number. They will be boosted as the only alternative to the NDP, but wont get enough support due to the NDP's inevitability of victory.

So, enjoy the by-election tomorrow, everyone. Polls close at 8:30 PM (Eastern). 











Sunday, March 11, 2012

NDP membership maps

The NDP leadership convention is only two weeks away, and so I've decided to do a brief analysis of the party's membership. Updated numbers were released at the beginning of the month, showing the party's membership for each of the 10 provinces and three territories.

The membership deadline for voting in the leadership race was almost a month ago, so the updated figures will be the official figures for the leadership race. Members will be able to vote either online, by mail or at the party's leadership convention.

Totals:


Province / Territory NDP members % of population (2011 census) Members to NDP MP's ratio NDP 2011 votes to members ratio
Alberta 9800 0.27 9800 24
British Columbia 39859 0.91 3321.6 15.3
Manitoba 11991 0.99 5995.5 10.6
New Brunswick 946 0.13 946 122.4
Newfoundland and Labrador 974 0.19 487 72.8
Nova Scotia 3904 0.42 1301.3 35
Northwest Territories 124 0.3 124 57.6
Nunavut 24 0.08 - 63.5
Ontario 36965 0.29 1760.2 38.3
Prince Edward Island 262 0.19 - 46.3
Quebec 13987 0.18 241.2 116.6
Saskatchewan 11243 1.09 - 13.1
Yukon 747 2.2 - 3.1
Total (including others) 131152 0.39 1298.5 34.4



NDP Membership by province and territory.
 As you can see, over half of all NDP members are in BC and Ontario. This is good for the party, considering it is in those two regions the party needs to grow in order form government. However, the party also needs to worry about keeping strength in Quebec. While membership in Quebec has increased a lot, it is still not going to be a huge factor.

This discrepancy can be shown best through the last two columns on my chart. The third column in my chart shows the ratio of NDP Members to NDP Members of Parliament. Quebec has one NDP Member of Parliament for every 241 members. This is a very low number, second only to the Northwest Territories, which has one MP and a total of 124 members in the entire territory. My next map illustrates this well:



































The fourth column shows the ratio of NDP voters in the last federal election to members. One would think that the provinces should be generally equal, but this is not the case. Some provinces' citizens are more likely to want to join a political party than others. Much has been said about how fickle Quebec voters can be, and the chart shows how unwilling they are to commit to the party they overwhelmingly backed in 2011. There are 117 NDP voters for every NDP member in the province. Only New Brunswick was more out of balance. It appears provinces without NDP voting traditions had the most discrepancies. The Yukon has the lowest NDP voter to member ratio. The party has a high membership in the Territory, but had a poor showing in the federal election. It's likely many NDP members didn't even vote for the NDP last May. I have made another map showing the ratio:

The second column in the chart shows the percentage of the population in each region who is an NDP member. Interestingly, the two jurisdictions with the highest percentage of NDP members both have zero NDP Members of Parliament. Over 2% of the population of the Yukon holds an NDP membership (thanks perhaps to a re-invigorated territorial party). And, just over 1% of Saskatchewan holds an NDP membership. The party should be happy about that, especially coming off a poor election result in the Fall, and going four straight federal elections without winning a seat. My next map shows this:



































So, there are clearly four tiers of provinces. Ontario and BC have the most influence, with both having over 30,000 members. Alberta, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Quebec are the next tier, all with around 10,000 members. Nova Scotia is in a tier of its own, with 4000 members. The rest of the provinces round out the final tier, all of which have less than 1000 members. It is clear that Ontario and BC will be the key provinces to focus on.